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Article: Twins Punting 2013? Not So Fast

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#21 jokin

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 09:06 PM

The Twins would be punting next season and future seasons if they weren't doing these deals. 2013 was already going to be a rough season but I'm becoming a little more optimistic each day. If they trade one or both of Willingham and Morneau for prospects then I would consider it punting though. there still won't be a lot of pitching and the offense would be looking pretty weak unless Hicks, Arcia, Parmelee and Plouffe significantly overachieved.


The defense is looking pretty shaky, too.

All indications in the media are that they will move W, M, whoever- if- the return in trade is acceptable. They're apparently "shopping" them.

"Chris Kluwe calling on Line 2"

#22 one_eyed_jack

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 09:25 PM

Detroit was the American League representative in the World Series. Twins' fans like to cast aspersions on Detroit and Chicago, but to deny Detroit's talent is perhaps being a bit short sited.


---Really? Detroit had the 7th-best record in the American league last year (playing a much softer schedule than the 6 teams from the other 2 divisions who finished with better records) and needed a late-season collapse from a very mediocre White Sox team to even get to the post season

Yes, they have some very talented guys, but they are a stars-and-scrubs team, very top heavy without a lot of depth. Once you get past Verlander, Scherzer, Fielder and Cabrera, what do you really have there? A team with holes in its lineup that is bad defensively and has a suspect bullpen.

Certainly, the Tigers would have to be considered the favorite to win the division going into 2013, but they're not some unstoppable powerhouse, the fact that they got hot for a couple of weeks in October notwithstanding.

#23 nicksaviking

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 09:48 PM

They may not have punted yet, but they may as well if they don't fill the top of the lineup. I was interested in Jeff Keppinger before these moves, he'd look pretty good playing 2B/3B and in the two hole right now. He seemed like a good fit, don't know why the Twins showed no interest.

#24 mlbfan

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 09:50 PM

Until they actually sign a good pitcher they are punting. With the loss of Pavano and Caps they had enough money to buy a pitcher on the free agent market. As of now they have refused to spend any money and have indicated that they will not do so. Right now they are much weaker on defense, they are much weaker on offense and they don't have any depth. Hardly moving forward in 2013.

Terry Ryan could just spend some money to get the one pitcher (4th starter) he has so far. He did not have to trade two position players to do so. This is clearly giving up in 2013. Furthermore, he is giving up in 2014 as well. All of our prospects are in AA. They will maybe make the team in 2014. They won't be any good until 2016 or 2017.

Because of poor of a drafting strategy he could bite the bullet and make the organization pay for it by spending some money, instead he will make the fans pay for it by runnning out a minor league lineup with no chance for winning until some far off future event.

No matter how much whipped cream you put on it this season is still crap.

#25 Seth Stohs

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 09:58 PM

Hendriks had bone chips removed. Lots of pitchers do that. Nathan did it. Santana had it done the offseason before he won his first Cy Young. Worley had his surgery in August, so he should be completely fine.

#26 nokomismod

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 09:59 PM

In my opinion, mlbfan, i am more excited for this season, after the past two trades. Nothing against Span or Revere, they are both decent offensive players, and above average defensive players. I just think it's time to see Arcia, Hicks, and possibly Benson.
I have to think we will see at least two starters signed and maybe one or two infielders. I don't necessarily think we will contend, but at least we are moving forward.

#27 jokin

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 10:03 PM

Detroit was the American League representative in the World Series. Twins' fans like to cast aspersions on Detroit and Chicago, but to deny Detroit's talent is perhaps being a bit short sited.


---Really? Detroit had the 7th-best record in the American league last year (playing a much softer schedule than the 6 teams from the other 2 divisions who finished with better records) and needed a late-season collapse from a very mediocre White Sox team to even get to the post season

Yes, they have some very talented guys, but they are a stars-and-scrubs team, very top heavy without a lot of depth. Once you get past Verlander, Scherzer, Fielder and Cabrera, what do you really have there? A team with holes in its lineup that is bad defensively and has a suspect bullpen.

Certainly, the Tigers would have to be considered the favorite to win the division going into 2013, but they're not some unstoppable powerhouse, the fact that they got hot for a couple of weeks in October notwithstanding.


The signing of Torii and V-Mart's return makes them not unstoppable, but certainly prohibitive favorites to not only win the Central but enter as the clear favorite to win it all in 2013:


Odds to win the 2013 MLB World Series from BETONLINE:


Detroit Tigers 6/1

New York Yankees 7/1
San Francisco Giants 10/1
Texas Rangers 12/1
Washington Nationals 12/1
Los Angeles Angels 12/1
Philadelphia Phillies 14/1
St. Louis Cardinals 14/1

#28 jokin

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 10:10 PM

Love the 2 trades but any shot for success for this season will be dimished by having the worst double play combo in the majors.
Also wasnt liking Ryan saying Blackburn & Duensing could be in the running for starting spots this yr.....groan


If that comment wasn't enough to convince Nick Nelson and the gang that Ryan is punting, the re-signing of Liriano should put it over the top.

#29 mlbfan

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 10:11 PM

In my opinion, mlbfan, i am more excited for this season, after the past two trades. Nothing against Span or Revere, they are both decent offensive players, and above average defensive players. I just think it's time to see Arcia, Hicks, and possibly Benson.
I have to think we will see at least two starters signed and maybe one or two infielders. I don't necessarily think we will contend, but at least we are moving forward.


I was looking forward to seeing Arcia, HIcks and Benson also, in AAA. They don't belong in the majors yet. Further, they won't be as good as Span or Revere for at least two years.

#30 Mauerpower

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 10:12 PM

arcia and hicks are will be better defensively than revere, and possibly as well as span. They are definitely better offensively. Yes, they haven't been in the majors yet but i'd take my chances there. The twins are better off with the return. They have drastically needed starting pitching for a few years now. Solid defense and pitching will win games. You have to give yourself at chance to win. We didn't have that the last couple years. I'm looking forward to this season, and I will actually be excited if they spend some money on an ace.

#31 jokin

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 10:18 PM

Great article, Nick, and definitely puts things into perspective. Until Greinke and Sanchez sign, we may not see that next tier sign, and I think this flexibility allows them to be in on the likes of Jackson, McCarthy, Marcum and others in the $8-12 million range.


I think that boat has set sail. Greinke is trying for $25M and anything close to that lifts all the other boats in the water. Haren just signed for $13M and all the guys you mentioned will ask and likely receive at least that much and possibly much more.

#32 mlbfan

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 10:21 PM

arcia and hicks are will be better defensively than revere, and possibly as well as span. They are definitely better offensively. Yes, they haven't been in the majors yet but i'd take my chances there. The twins are better off with the return. They have drastically needed starting pitching for a few years now. Solid defense and pitching will win games. You have to give yourself at chance to win. We didn't have that the last couple years. I'm looking forward to this season, and I will actually be excited if they spend some money on an ace.


I will be excited if they spend money on an ace as well. Unfortunately, Terry Ryan has already said that he will not try for the top free agents (he says you have to be realistic) ie cheap.

#33 jmlease1

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 10:22 PM

Well-stated, Nick. That said, I think 1 more veteran pitcher (Marcum or Dempster are my preferences) might be enough to solidify the rotation with Diamond, Gibson, & Worley with 1 more coming from the Hendriks/De Vries/Walters/Deduno/Blackburn/et al group. Are any of those last group of Twins pitchers going to make your socks roll up & down? No, but we'd be looking for a 4th starter, not a 1, 2, or 3. I assume Gibson's innings will be limited, so think of him as the 5th starter. I think we can find a 4th starter out of that crew.

That leaves up with some payroll flexibility to shore up the infield, giving us more options at 2B/SS, insurance/competition for Plouffe at 3B, etc.

Now, if Plouffe can be an 800 OPS player with adequate defense, and Parmelee hits better than Span the offense should still be pretty good. You can't call them the favorites for 2013, but surrender? By adding a solid starter while dropping salary, the Twins have put themselves in position to keep building a good roster and preparing for the next wave from the minors (which is now looking like a pretty strong system again).

#34 one_eyed_jack

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 10:24 PM

[quote name='jokin'][quote name='one_eyed_jack'][quote name='h2oface']Detroit was the American League representative in the World Series. Twins' fans like to cast aspersions on Detroit and Chicago, but to deny Detroit's talent is perhaps being a bit short sited.[/QUOTE]

---Really? Detroit had the 7th-best record in the American league last year (playing a much softer schedule than the 6 teams from the other 2 divisions who finished with better records) and needed a late-season collapse from a very mediocre White Sox team to even get to the post season

Yes, they have some very talented guys, but they are a stars-and-scrubs team, very top heavy without a lot of depth. Once you get past Verlander, Scherzer, Fielder and Cabrera, what do you really have there? A team with holes in its lineup that is bad defensively and has a suspect bullpen.

Certainly, the Tigers would have to be considered the favorite to win the division going into 2013, but they're not some unstoppable powerhouse, the fact that they got hot for a couple of weeks in October notwithstanding. [/QUOTE]

The signing of Torii and V-Mart's return makes them not unstoppable, but certainly prohibitive favorites to not only win the Central but enter as the clear favorite to win it all in 2013:


Odds to win the 2013 MLB World Series from BETONLINE:


Detroit Tigers 6/1

New York Yankees 7/1
San Francisco Giants 10/1
Texas Rangers 12/1
Washington Nationals 12/1
Los Angeles Angels 12/1
Philadelphia Phillies 14/1
St. Louis Cardinals 14/1[/QUOTE]

---Those kinds of odds do not make the Tigers a "clear favorite to win it all." That kind of oddsmaking started immediately after the World Series ended, before any offseason activity took place.
http://www.cbssports...13-world-series

I'm sure they'll change quite a bit between now and opening day.

#35 revdrev

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 10:25 PM

One important thing to keep in mind: Worley is recovering from surgery to remove a "loose body" and a bone spur from his elbow. Pitchers who have had similar offseason surgeries typically need 2-3 months of the next season to get back into shape, which means Worley probably isn't going to be in form until next June or July. And that means Worley isn't really going to help the Twins contend until 2014-16. I'd guess that's been factored into Terry Ryan's plan, anyway.

I like this move for the long term. Even if Trevor May doesn't solve his control problems, I'd still rather have Vance Worley (assuming he gets healthy) over the next 4 years than Ben Revere. But it definitely does look like another sign of punting on 2013, unless Ryan is quietly planning to spend money on the lineup as well as starting pitching this winter. The lineup, as it stands, looks like it's probably going to be below-average, and possibly even really poor.


The guy who knows TJ better than anybody said Worley doesn't need it after he examined him.

http://articles.phil...ateral-ligament

#36 Riverbrian

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 10:32 PM

I don't think it's totally accurate to say the are punting... I'd say it was 1st down and 40 and they just completed a 15 yard pass.

It's 2nd down and 25 to go.

#37 Fatt Crapps

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 10:46 PM

Hendriks had bone chips removed. Lots of pitchers do that. Nathan did it. Santana had it done the offseason before he won his first Cy Young. Worley had his surgery in August, so he should be completely fine.


How did that turn out again?

http://sports.espn.g...tory?id=4973472

#38 Mauerpower

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 10:55 PM

Nathan had tommy john. completely different. the spurs were removed after he was recovering from the surgery. Don't worry over worley.

#39 jokin

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 11:00 PM

[quote name='one_eyed_jack'][quote name='jokin'][quote name='one_eyed_jack'][quote name='h2oface']Detroit was the American League representative in the World Series. Twins' fans like to cast aspersions on Detroit and Chicago, but to deny Detroit's talent is perhaps being a bit short sited.[/QUOTE]

---Really? Detroit had the 7th-best record in the American league last year (playing a much softer schedule than the 6 teams from the other 2 divisions who finished with better records) and needed a late-season collapse from a very mediocre White Sox team to even get to the post season

Yes, they have some very talented guys, but they are a stars-and-scrubs team, very top heavy without a lot of depth. Once you get past Verlander, Scherzer, Fielder and Cabrera, what do you really have there? A team with holes in its lineup that is bad defensively and has a suspect bullpen.

Certainly, the Tigers would have to be considered the favorite to win the division going into 2013, but they're not some unstoppable powerhouse, the fact that they got hot for a couple of weeks in October notwithstanding. [/QUOTE]

The signing of Torii and V-Mart's return makes them not unstoppable, but certainly prohibitive favorites to not only win the Central but enter as the clear favorite to win it all in 2013:


Odds to win the 2013 MLB World Series from BETONLINE:


Detroit Tigers 6/1

New York Yankees 7/1
San Francisco Giants 10/1
Texas Rangers 12/1
Washington Nationals 12/1
Los Angeles Angels 12/1
Philadelphia Phillies 14/1
St. Louis Cardinals 14/1[/QUOTE]

---Those kinds of odds do not make the Tigers a "clear favorite to win it all." That kind of oddsmaking started immediately after the World Series ended, before any offseason activity took place.
http://www.cbssports...13-world-series

I'm sure they'll change quite a bit between now and opening day.[/QUOTE]

You're right that they'll change and for the record, I hate the Tigers style of play, but given the Yankees currently in freefall and steadfast on holding on a current payroll at ~$180M- and the Rangers still not sure about their lineup for 2013, you've essentially now extended the odds of both of the other 2 AL teams on this list. The Giants are pretty much standing pat. As you point out, the oddsmaking began BEFORE the signing of Hunter, given all of these facts, as painful as it is for me to declare, the Tigers are currently the clear favorites to at least MAKE the World Series, if not take it all.

Edited by jokin, 06 December 2012 - 11:03 PM.


#40 Fatt Crapps

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 11:01 PM

the spurs were removed after he was recovering from the surgery.


Nope.