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Article: Twins Punting 2013? Not So Fast

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#1 Nick Nelson

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 06:50 PM

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.co...013-Not-So-Fast

#2 Dave T

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 07:07 PM

Nick - thank you for writing what I've been thinking. We're two pitchers and maybe a shortstop away from credibility as a contender in the AL Central. How much does R.A. Dickey want, again?

#3 Top Gun

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 07:08 PM

It's not over tell the top pitchers sign.

#4 AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 07:11 PM

It's not over tell the top pitchers sign.


True that Top Gun!

#5 ltwedt

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 07:18 PM

yeah - Or until . . . it's over

#6 Mchans24

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 07:20 PM

I've noticed many casual fans calling this a disaster, I think these are very good moves that could turn great if May or Meyer turns into a front line guy down the road. Especially considering neither Span or Revere fit in past 2013. I'm hopeful we can sign an Edwin Jackson type to man the front of the rotation on maybe a 2-3 year deal. If not, I'm ok with picking up another arm at the deadline with Willingham or Morneau as trade bait!

#7 Seth Stohs

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 07:37 PM

Great article, Nick, and definitely puts things into perspective. Until Greinke and Sanchez sign, we may not see that next tier sign, and I think this flexibility allows them to be in on the likes of Jackson, McCarthy, Marcum and others in the $8-12 million range.

#8 mike wants wins

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 07:48 PM

According to Mackey, the Twins cannot have their top 3-4 players make 50% of their budget. If Mauer makes $23MM, that means the next 3 can make $24MM combined. Now, that does not leave any room to sign any pitchers that make real money, even if they trade Morneau......Me, I'd sign Marcum and 1 other pitcher and call it a day. But I don't see how signing any legit player fits within Ryan's statement.

#9 pjnelly

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 07:50 PM

I think your right, Nick. Better yet, I think TR is thinking the same way: http://mlb.mlb.com/v...py_25519603&v=3

#10 strumdatjag

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 08:04 PM

Why sign two $10 million pitchers? The Twins should sign one of the top available free agent pitchers like Grienke, Jackson, McCarthy, or Dempster and fill out the rotation with Diamond, Gibson, Worley and allow someone to earn the fifth spot in training camp (if nobody earns the spot ofr someone is injured, take a cast-off from anther team at the end of Spring Training).

#11 tjsyam921

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 08:06 PM

Jackson and Marcum to go along with Diamond, Worley, and either Hendriks, Walters, or Deduno would definitely be better than last year. Sure could use a SS or 2b that can hit.

#12 frightwig

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 08:10 PM

One important thing to keep in mind: Worley is recovering from surgery to remove a "loose body" and a bone spur from his elbow. Pitchers who have had similar offseason surgeries typically need 2-3 months of the next season to get back into shape, which means Worley probably isn't going to be in form until next June or July. And that means Worley isn't really going to help the Twins contend until 2014-16. I'd guess that's been factored into Terry Ryan's plan, anyway.

I like this move for the long term. Even if Trevor May doesn't solve his control problems, I'd still rather have Vance Worley (assuming he gets healthy) over the next 4 years than Ben Revere. But it definitely does look like another sign of punting on 2013, unless Ryan is quietly planning to spend money on the lineup as well as starting pitching this winter. The lineup, as it stands, looks like it's probably going to be below-average, and possibly even really poor.

#13 Nick Nelson

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 08:22 PM

Drew Storen had surgery to remove bone chips in April of last season, came back in July and posted a 2.37 ERA with a sub-1.00 WHIP the rest of the way. Worley will have five months from the date of his surgery until pitchers and catchers report.

It's certainly possible that Worley will have complications from the surgery but I don't see why you'd assume it. Plenty of guys bounce back in one offseason.

#14 one_eyed_jack

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 08:32 PM

The Twins are not punting, and should not be punting in 2013. Look at the state of this division. Not a powerhouse in it. It was the weakest in baseball in 2012, and I don't really see it being any better next year. If the Twins can upgrade their starting pitching and middle infield from godawful to competent, they'll be able to hang in the race for a while.

#15 Anorthagen

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 08:49 PM

Moneyball is one my favorite movies, and after watching that movie and seeing how billy bean made the A's into a contender. It is very easy to see how Terry Ryan is doing that same concept. He trades away good players to get other organizations top pitchers. Unfortunately, from a fan's point of view you would rather not see this, but you only know it will make the team better overall. Especially with how much the twins need starting pitching. If the twins can have diamond, Worley, Gibson, Hendricks, and whoever else in their rotation there is a good chance that they could finish as high as 3rd in the division. With the exception of everyone staying healthy.

#16 kab21

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 08:54 PM

The Twins would be punting next season and future seasons if they weren't doing these deals. 2013 was already going to be a rough season but I'm becoming a little more optimistic each day. If they trade one or both of Willingham and Morneau for prospects then I would consider it punting though. there still won't be a lot of pitching and the offense would be looking pretty weak unless Hicks, Arcia, Parmelee and Plouffe significantly overachieved.

#17 h2oface

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 08:54 PM

Detroit was the American League representative in the World Series. Twins' fans like to cast aspersions on Detroit and Chicago, but to deny Detroit's talent is perhaps being a bit short sited.

#18 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 08:55 PM

Love the 2 trades but any shot for success for this season will be dimished by having the worst double play combo in the majors.
Also wasnt liking Ryan saying Blackburn & Duensing could be in the running for starting spots this yr.....groan

#19 kab21

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 08:58 PM

Detroit was the American League representative in the World Series. Twins' fans like to cast aspersions on Detroit and Chicago, but to deny Detroit's talent is perhaps being a bit short sited.


More importantly than this they need to show that they aren't the 2nd worst team (the Astros are truly awful) in the American league and get back to .500. Even if the division is weak they still have a lot of work to do to get out of the cellar.

#20 TheLeviathan

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 09:01 PM

The Twins would be punting next season and future seasons if they weren't doing these deals. 2013 was already going to be a rough season but I'm becoming a little more optimistic each day. If they trade one or both of Willingham and Morneau for prospects then I would consider it punting though. there still won't be a lot of pitching and the offense would be looking pretty weak unless Hicks, Arcia, Parmelee and Plouffe significantly overachieved.


Right, they aren't punting but they also aren't putting their eggs in the 2013 basket. I think the most dangerous thing they could done was overreact to the needs of the next season at the expense of the organization's long-term strength. So far they have focused on getting pitching talent that aligns perfectly with our best minor league players and managed to add a 25 year old with some solid facets to his game.

The problem is that their trade chips are pretty much gone unless they actually punt and we are seeing Ryan publically acknowedge that they are having difficulty signing players (for whatever reason). This team, as it is currently constituted after the trades, is not a whole lot better for next year. It all comes down to what they can do with the money they should have available.

#21 jokin

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 09:06 PM

The Twins would be punting next season and future seasons if they weren't doing these deals. 2013 was already going to be a rough season but I'm becoming a little more optimistic each day. If they trade one or both of Willingham and Morneau for prospects then I would consider it punting though. there still won't be a lot of pitching and the offense would be looking pretty weak unless Hicks, Arcia, Parmelee and Plouffe significantly overachieved.


The defense is looking pretty shaky, too.

All indications in the media are that they will move W, M, whoever- if- the return in trade is acceptable. They're apparently "shopping" them.

"Chris Kluwe calling on Line 2"

#22 one_eyed_jack

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 09:25 PM

Detroit was the American League representative in the World Series. Twins' fans like to cast aspersions on Detroit and Chicago, but to deny Detroit's talent is perhaps being a bit short sited.


---Really? Detroit had the 7th-best record in the American league last year (playing a much softer schedule than the 6 teams from the other 2 divisions who finished with better records) and needed a late-season collapse from a very mediocre White Sox team to even get to the post season

Yes, they have some very talented guys, but they are a stars-and-scrubs team, very top heavy without a lot of depth. Once you get past Verlander, Scherzer, Fielder and Cabrera, what do you really have there? A team with holes in its lineup that is bad defensively and has a suspect bullpen.

Certainly, the Tigers would have to be considered the favorite to win the division going into 2013, but they're not some unstoppable powerhouse, the fact that they got hot for a couple of weeks in October notwithstanding.

#23 nicksaviking

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 09:48 PM

They may not have punted yet, but they may as well if they don't fill the top of the lineup. I was interested in Jeff Keppinger before these moves, he'd look pretty good playing 2B/3B and in the two hole right now. He seemed like a good fit, don't know why the Twins showed no interest.

#24 mlbfan

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 09:50 PM

Until they actually sign a good pitcher they are punting. With the loss of Pavano and Caps they had enough money to buy a pitcher on the free agent market. As of now they have refused to spend any money and have indicated that they will not do so. Right now they are much weaker on defense, they are much weaker on offense and they don't have any depth. Hardly moving forward in 2013.

Terry Ryan could just spend some money to get the one pitcher (4th starter) he has so far. He did not have to trade two position players to do so. This is clearly giving up in 2013. Furthermore, he is giving up in 2014 as well. All of our prospects are in AA. They will maybe make the team in 2014. They won't be any good until 2016 or 2017.

Because of poor of a drafting strategy he could bite the bullet and make the organization pay for it by spending some money, instead he will make the fans pay for it by runnning out a minor league lineup with no chance for winning until some far off future event.

No matter how much whipped cream you put on it this season is still crap.

#25 Seth Stohs

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 09:58 PM

Hendriks had bone chips removed. Lots of pitchers do that. Nathan did it. Santana had it done the offseason before he won his first Cy Young. Worley had his surgery in August, so he should be completely fine.

#26 nokomismod

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 09:59 PM

In my opinion, mlbfan, i am more excited for this season, after the past two trades. Nothing against Span or Revere, they are both decent offensive players, and above average defensive players. I just think it's time to see Arcia, Hicks, and possibly Benson.
I have to think we will see at least two starters signed and maybe one or two infielders. I don't necessarily think we will contend, but at least we are moving forward.

#27 jokin

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 10:03 PM

Detroit was the American League representative in the World Series. Twins' fans like to cast aspersions on Detroit and Chicago, but to deny Detroit's talent is perhaps being a bit short sited.


---Really? Detroit had the 7th-best record in the American league last year (playing a much softer schedule than the 6 teams from the other 2 divisions who finished with better records) and needed a late-season collapse from a very mediocre White Sox team to even get to the post season

Yes, they have some very talented guys, but they are a stars-and-scrubs team, very top heavy without a lot of depth. Once you get past Verlander, Scherzer, Fielder and Cabrera, what do you really have there? A team with holes in its lineup that is bad defensively and has a suspect bullpen.

Certainly, the Tigers would have to be considered the favorite to win the division going into 2013, but they're not some unstoppable powerhouse, the fact that they got hot for a couple of weeks in October notwithstanding.


The signing of Torii and V-Mart's return makes them not unstoppable, but certainly prohibitive favorites to not only win the Central but enter as the clear favorite to win it all in 2013:


Odds to win the 2013 MLB World Series from BETONLINE:


Detroit Tigers 6/1

New York Yankees 7/1
San Francisco Giants 10/1
Texas Rangers 12/1
Washington Nationals 12/1
Los Angeles Angels 12/1
Philadelphia Phillies 14/1
St. Louis Cardinals 14/1

#28 jokin

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 10:10 PM

Love the 2 trades but any shot for success for this season will be dimished by having the worst double play combo in the majors.
Also wasnt liking Ryan saying Blackburn & Duensing could be in the running for starting spots this yr.....groan


If that comment wasn't enough to convince Nick Nelson and the gang that Ryan is punting, the re-signing of Liriano should put it over the top.

#29 mlbfan

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 10:11 PM

In my opinion, mlbfan, i am more excited for this season, after the past two trades. Nothing against Span or Revere, they are both decent offensive players, and above average defensive players. I just think it's time to see Arcia, Hicks, and possibly Benson.
I have to think we will see at least two starters signed and maybe one or two infielders. I don't necessarily think we will contend, but at least we are moving forward.


I was looking forward to seeing Arcia, HIcks and Benson also, in AAA. They don't belong in the majors yet. Further, they won't be as good as Span or Revere for at least two years.

#30 Mauerpower

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 10:12 PM

arcia and hicks are will be better defensively than revere, and possibly as well as span. They are definitely better offensively. Yes, they haven't been in the majors yet but i'd take my chances there. The twins are better off with the return. They have drastically needed starting pitching for a few years now. Solid defense and pitching will win games. You have to give yourself at chance to win. We didn't have that the last couple years. I'm looking forward to this season, and I will actually be excited if they spend some money on an ace.