Brock you have been one of the more reasonable anti(for lack of a better word) guys. I wont argue that fluctuation range of yours. Looks reasonable to me. I get what you are saying.
100 OPS points is nothing statistically is what I'm saying(and yes i know the formula) and it isn't just the fast guys. Try to project what you should sign Napoli for?
I'm not slamming Denard Span... I will miss Span terribly... but he ain't a power hitter either and his arm is also sub par. The differences are shades. Yet one is approved and the other is not. I refuse to let a couple of doubles and a couple of walks get in the way of a developing 24 year old who has not failed yet.
Metrics are a major part of my job and I have seen too many people chase their tails while thinking they had the tail the whole time.
Lots of that going on.
But remember when
Span was signed. He was coming off two years of .800 OPS and nearly a .400 OBP. He regressed, just as speed guys often do in time as the league adjusts. But even after Span regressed, he was still a valuable player. Can you really say that for Revere? That's the difference between the two players. Span regressed from a .320/.390/.410 guy into a .280/.350/.370 guy. That still has a lot of value in an up-the-middle position. Even as Span's BABIP normalized, his walk rate and power remained (mostly) steady and after a few years, was still considered an above average centerfielder.
If Revere's BABIP drops, he's screwed. He's instantly a fourth outfielder. Outside of mentioning that they play the same position, we should stop comparing the two players. Span is the superior player in almost every way.
As for Revere's future, there isn't a lot to project there. He's never taken a walk in his career. Learning to do so now is pretty far-fetched. He puts the ball on the ground far too often to be a power threat. He's still young and could develop a little more strength but it won't be significant and given his ground ball rate, could just mean that he starts hitting groundball outs to fielders a little faster than he did before (at the same time his speed is declining). There's just nothing in his skill set that projects to being a quality player over the longterm.