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How high would you go for Brandon McCarthy?

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42 replies to this topic

#1 John Bonnes

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 10:53 AM

Given the escalated salaries for starting pitchers, how high would you be willing to go for Brandon McCarthy? He's been very good when healthy, but also has only thrown 111 and 170 innings the last two years. He was out all of 2010. So there is plenty of gamble there.

Would you be willing to go three years?
Would you be willing to go up to $10M/year? $11M?

Think of this as a blind bid situation. If you get the biggest total number, you get him. What would you be willing to do?

(I think I top out at 2/22 or 3/30.)

#2 raindog

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 11:05 AM

(I think I top out at 2/22 or 3/30.)


This. No higher.

#3 Twins Twerp

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 11:13 AM

2 for 20 with a team option of 11 mil for a third year. A guy who got his head almost knocked off for 10mil scares me.

#4 mike wants wins

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 11:13 AM

Well, Haren just went 13 million for 1 year.

#5 gunnarthor

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 11:29 AM

I'd probably leave him alone but 3/24 would be my limit. Pitching in Oakland, I think, helps him a great deal.

He does have a stunning wife though.

#6 powrwrap

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 11:45 AM

Assuming he's healthy (good point Twerp) I'd go 2/24 or 3/33. If you want starting pitching, and you are in a secondary market, better pay. Look at Carlos Silva in Seattle and Gil Meche in KC. McCarthy's 3.66 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over the past 4 years is solid and easily better than any 4 year stretch by Meche or Silva.
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#7 Seth Stohs

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 11:49 AM

I'd go 2 years, $18 million, with a $10 million option for 2015... with a $1 million buyout.

So, that'd be a 2 year, $19 million deal with option.

#8 drivlikejehu

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 11:51 AM

Pitching has always been expensive. Revenues have risen, and payrolls along with it, but even back in the day there was Mike Hampton and so forth.

McCarthy doesn't have a great track record for his career like Haren. I just don't think teams will go totally crazy over a limited-upside question mark, even in this market. I wouldn't offer more than 2/16.

#9 fittdogg

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 12:08 PM

3 years $36 million or even 4 years $48 million. When you put up ERA numbers like that in the American League, he's worth it.

#10 Shane Wahl

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 12:12 PM

I wouldn't push it at all. I guess two years guaranteed for a walking injury concern is not terrible. A Pavano-esque deal then. I would prefer a 1/10 with a 12 million option and 1 million buyout the best though. Or let the White Sox throw 4 years at him and watch that fail miserably.

#11 syves

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 12:21 PM

With his history, as high as that referendum is gonna make Colorado.

I'm not gonna pay someone $10 million who has pitched over 150 innings one time since 2006.

#12 Shane Wahl

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 12:30 PM

With his history, as high as that referendum is gonna make Colorado.

I'm not gonna pay someone $10 million who has pitched over 150 innings one time since 2006.


Yeah, I really find the love for him around here bizarre. 3 or 4 years!!!???

#13 Jim H

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 12:41 PM

The problem with this question for me is what are other options and what really is the budget? It is hard to say what amount of money should be committed to a pretty risky guy like McCarthy when you really don't know how much the Twins are willing to spend for 2013 and for future years. I would likely rather have McCarthy then Edwin Jackson but that depends on money and years. Maybe the best stragedy here, is find 4 reasonable risk starters for 1 year each for $20-25 mil. It gives you some depth, it would allow to address other areas and may save some be spent during the season if the Twins happened to be better than expected.

Investing money in a McCarthy is a large gamble if you have to go multiple years. A guy like Jackson might have ace stuff, but generally pitches like a back of rotation guy, plus no team seems to want him after watching pitch for a year. So maybe you sign 4 moderate risk, moderate reward guys to 1 year deals and see what your team looks like in July.

#14 whydidnt

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 12:43 PM

I guess I'd be surprised if he got the kind of money most are floating around here. His track record of injuries is going to cause teams to pause on anything more than a year. 1 Year 8.5 or 2 yrs 16 should be pretty competitive. Haren has a much longer track record of success and fewer injuries and just got 1 -13 from the Nationals, I really can't see McCarthy approaching those numbers.

#15 Twins Twerp

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 12:50 PM

I guess I'd be surprised if he got the kind of money most are floating around here. His track record of injuries is going to cause teams to pause on anything more than a year. 1 Year 8.5 or 2 yrs 16 should be pretty competitive. Haren has a much longer track record of success and fewer injuries and just got 1 -13 from the Nationals, I really can't see McCarthy approaching those numbers.


Because he is only 29, still has potential as a mid-rotation guy, and multiple team are bidding on him. The guy is going to take the best deal with the most money or multiple years. My guess is someone will be willing to put in a second year. He will take the second year and run to the bank with it.

#16 old nurse

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 01:03 PM

You could be creative and go a little lower around 16 for 2 with a generous bonus for IP. Make it a win/win.

#17 Kwak

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 01:26 PM

1st year 6MM with incentives that go as high as 10MM, 2nd year opion 12MM with a 1.5MM buyout.

#18 whydidnt

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 01:42 PM

Because he is only 29, still has potential as a mid-rotation guy, and multiple team are bidding on him. The guy is going to take the best deal with the most money or multiple years. My guess is someone will be willing to put in a second year. He will take the second year and run to the bank with it.

I agree that he'll probably get 2 years, but I still think teams are going to be shy because of the injury track record. He's had serious shoulder injuries throughout his career and those are the one's that are the most difficult to overcome. I'm not saying a don't like the guy or that he wouldn't be an upgrade here, but I also think if you're going to invest 10+ million a year you want someone that you think has a good chance of making it through the season.

#19 JP3700

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 01:45 PM

You could be creative and go a little lower around 16 for 2 with a generous bonus for IP. Make it a win/win.


I agree. 2 years, $16 million with up to $3 million in incentives each year based on IP. I'd also add a third year vesting option.

#20 johnnydakota

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 01:48 PM

Off subject , but can anyone tell me why Salcedo is rated higher as a prospect then Berrois is?

#21 old nurse

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 01:53 PM

Off subject , but can anyone tell me why Salcedo is rated higher as a prospect then Berrois is?


Way off subject. Look at who did the rankings. After you say "who?" you will have your answer. Or Thyrloss is messing with people again.

#22 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 01:56 PM

Giving McCarthy anything more then 1 year is a recipe for disaster, the guy can't be counted on to stay healthy.

With that said, I would give him a 1 year 6-7 mil deal and a team option if he would take it.

#23 Rosterman

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 01:57 PM

I would go 2-year $22 million...$10, $12 with a third year option of $14-15 million with a $2 million buyout to sign him. But not sure if I would make a similar offer to, say, Dempster, or someone else first.
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#24 LaBombo

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 02:58 PM

Hard to consider any signing in a vacuum while ignoring the team's goal for 2013. If it's just to inch back to respectability while building for 2014 and beyond by adding cheap 1-year FA's, then McCarthy isn't a good fit. He's too expensive and risky for that.

But if the goal is to gamble on a guy who could be a very good 3rd starter in '14 and '15, then he may be the kind of guy the Twins have to roll the dice on. McCarthy has been less durable than Scott Baker and is coming off a potentially life-threatening head injury. It seems plausible to expect that McCarthy could sign a three year deal worth around 25-30 million, but back-loaded with incentives and buyouts. The Twins should have at least some interest.

It may depend as much (or more) on McCarthy's career and financial goals than it does how much the Twins will pony up. He may be determined to gamble on himself with a one year deal that frees him to follow the big money after a strong 2013. Or he may be determined to play for a contender (like Marcum) and not even consider the Twins.

Edited by LaBombo, 04 December 2012 - 04:35 PM.


#25 nicksaviking

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 03:18 PM

I would ask McCarthy to pay the Twins $5 million for the right to pitch in Minnesota. I have zero interest in pitchers who suddenly become useful in Oakland, 90% of the time it's a mirage. Besides, are we really looking to keep the status quo on the Twins already league worst K/9? If this team is going to gamble on an injury prone pitcher, they should have gone after Dan Haren who actually isn't injury prone, but just has bad PR guys at his agents firm.

#26 70charger

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 03:28 PM

Hard to consider any signing in a vacuum while ignoring the team's goal for 2013. If it's just to inch back to respectability while building for 2014 and beyond by adding cheap 1-year FA's, then McCarthy isn't a good fit. He's too expensive and risky for that.

But if the goal is to gamble on a guy who could be a very good 3rd starter in '14 and '15, then he may be the kind of guy the Twins have to roll the dice on. McCarthy has been less durable than Scott Baker and is coming off a potentially life-threatening head injury. It seems plausible to expect that McCarthy could sign a three year deal worth around 25-30 million, but back-loaded with incentives and buyouts. The Twins should have at least some interest.

It depends more on McCarthy's career and financial goals than it does how much the Twins will pony up. He may be determined to gamble on himself with a one year deal that frees him to follow the big money after a strong 2013. Or he may be determined to play for a contender (like Marcum) and not even consider the Twins.


I absolutely agree with this. I don't think signing him to multiple years is a recipe for disaster unless you know for a fact that he'll get injured. It's absolutely a gamble with his health history, and it may very well not pan out, but the Twins are a position right now that they have to roll the dice. They have no real choice in the matter.

I would guess that something like 2 years at $8m and $10m with a (vesting?) option for a 3rd at $12 would get him. It's on the high side, but in this free agent market, what isn't?

#27 twinsfaninsaudi

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 05:53 PM

In the Twins situation of currently not being a contender and therefore not being an attractive landing spot, I would go as high as the deal Haren just got from the Nats - 1 year $13 million. However, I would NOT go over one year.

#28 AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 06:01 PM

In the Twins situation of currently not being a contender and therefore not being an attractive landing spot, I would go as high as the deal Haren just got from the Nats - 1 year $13 million. However, I would NOT go over one year.


I would say give him a 1 year deal worth close to Harens just like you said. But I would also have a team option for a 2nd year, but im sure some team out there will be desperate enough to give him a 3 year deal.

#29 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 08:52 PM

Given the need for pitching long term, I'd think that going after a guy like Sanchez for a 6 year deal to anchor the rotation would be the smart move. He's 28, so we would be paying him through age 34. To me that's the safest pick. McCarthy isn't necessarily a bad option, but 3 years from now, we will still need pitching...

#30 powrwrap

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 09:06 PM

I find it hilarious that those people that criticize the Pohlads for not spending money are (sometimes) the same ones that are willing to spend all of $8M on McCarthy, BUT NO MORE!!!
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