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The new, patient, Eddie Rosario

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#1 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 13 August 2020 - 10:31 AM

An interesting tidbit. We all know that walks aren't entirely indicative of plate discipline, but Rosario's new approach is startling when you extrapolate numbers...

 

Over the past three seasons, Rosario has averaged:

 

581 PAs, 29 BB per season.

 

He currently has 67 PAs, 8 BB.

 

Extrapolate those numbers to his three season average and it's:

 

581 PAs, 69 BB.

 

If Eddie is able to maintain that rate, there's a good chance he becomes a well above average corner outfielder and could see a nice payday as a result.

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#2 nicksaviking

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Posted 13 August 2020 - 11:39 AM

And he's currently got a woeful .173 BABiP. It just goes to show, guys who can draw walks, don't really see slumps.

 

He's currently seeing 4 pitches per PA while his career average is 3.5. It's early so it could be a fluke, but considering Rosario has actually said this was his intention, I've got hopes that this is going to be his approach going forward.

 

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#3 Number3

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Posted 13 August 2020 - 11:48 AM

What analytics spreadsheet column is BAPiP on? I bet Eddie could not tell you what that was, never mind me.

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#4 Danchat

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Posted 13 August 2020 - 11:49 AM

 

And he's currently got a woeful .173 BABiP. It just goes to show, guys who can draw walks, don't really see slumps.

 

He's currently seeing 4 pitches per AB while his career average is 3.5. It'd early so it could be a fluke, but considering Rosario has actually said this was his intention, I've got hopes that this is going to be his approach going forward.

It seems like for him, he's either smashing HRs or hitting very light groundballs off the end of the bat. If he could eliminate the soft contact and hit some more line drives, he's going to have a great year with the better K/BB ratio he's currently at.

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#5 twins1095

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Posted 13 August 2020 - 11:50 AM

 

An interesting tidbit. We all know that walks aren't entirely indicative of plate discipline, but Rosario's new approach is startling when you extrapolate numbers...

 

Over the past three seasons, Rosario has averaged:

 

581 PAs, 29 BB per season.

 

He currently has 67 PAs, 8 BB.

 

Extrapolate those numbers to his three season average and it's:

 

581 PAs, 69 BB.

 

If Eddie is able to maintain that rate, there's a good chance he becomes a well above average corner outfielder and could see a nice payday as a result.

 

I still think that unfortunately, he doesn't have a long term future on this team. That is, unless you are choosing Rosario over Buxton and doubling down on Kepler as your long term CF. Kepler is younger, a better fielder, as good or better as a hitter (even a more patient Rosario) and more affordable for longer.

 

Given Buxton's ability as a CF and the fact that he is younger and more cost controllable... I think the Twins still prioritize Buxton in the near-term over Rosario. Really the only shot that Rosario has at staying on the Twins roster is if Nelson Cruz announces his retirement and the Twins prioritize Rosario over Sano... which I guess is theoretically something that could be a conversation.

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#6 rdehring

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Posted 13 August 2020 - 02:26 PM

After all the negative pieces on Eddie, great to see someone write something positive. I for one hope like heck that his payday is very big and it is with the Twins. Let all those exciting prospects battle for one spot on the team that will open up whenever Cruz decides to retire.

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#7 BeatTheRich

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Posted 13 August 2020 - 03:23 PM

I love seeing Eddie coming to the plate right now. Let's hope he can sustain his newfound patience through the end of the year. I don't think his odds of locking in a long-term contract with the Twins are especially great, given our wealth (some might say glut) of corner outfield prospects, but I wouldn't mind seeing the Twins find a way. I've liked his bat since day one in 2015 with his first-at-bat homer.

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#8 Patrick Wozniak

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Posted 13 August 2020 - 08:49 PM

He's really been laying off the first pitch. His first pitch swing rate has gone from 41.9% last season to just 18.7% this year. But when he has swung at the first pitch he's done good damage with two of his home runs coming off first pitches.

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#9 Shaitan

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Posted 13 August 2020 - 09:39 PM

He's a streaky player (or has been battling nagging, unreported injuries often). I'd love to see his walk rate during his hot streaks of the past few years and how it compares to today.

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#10 Trov

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Posted 14 August 2020 - 08:14 AM

What is most impressive is not his walks, I have said more walks does not mean success for players.It is the walk to K ratio.He is almost 1 to 1, coming into the year his average was about 1 to 4.5.Now, his first two seasons were even worse at about 1 to 8.Then improved to about 1 to 3.5 over next 3 years.This year 1 to 1, technically 8 to 9.That is where he is showing great improvement. 

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#11 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 14 August 2020 - 08:39 AM

 

What is most impressive is not his walks, I have said more walks does not mean success for players.It is the walk to K ratio.He is almost 1 to 1, coming into the year his average was about 1 to 4.5.Now, his first two seasons were even worse at about 1 to 8.Then improved to about 1 to 3.5 over next 3 years.This year 1 to 1, technically 8 to 9.That is where he is showing great improvement. 

I thought about mentioning this but his K rate is pretty similar to previous years, I believe. While that number is somewhat static year over year, his walk rate is what drastically changed to create that near-parity.


#12 Darius

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Posted 14 August 2020 - 12:30 PM

If Eddie can be more selective, I’d be all for extending him. He would be, right now, what Kirilloff/Larnach have a chance at being in the future.

We could be talking about a 30 HR, 100 RBI, .875+ OPS guy. For reference, Max Kepler (who is widely considered a cornerstone type player) had an OPS of .855 last year.

With Cruz not guaranteed to return, Donaldson’s injury issues, Garver back on earth, Polanco not hitting for power, etc., Rosario may all of the sudden be our best hitter next year.
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#13 Darius

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Posted 14 August 2020 - 12:40 PM

He's really been laying off the first pitch. His first pitch swing rate has gone from 41.9% last season to just 18.7% this year. But when he has swung at the first pitch he's done good damage with two of his home runs coming off first pitches.


That’s a very interesting, and significant piece of info. Awesome find.

Things have to be easier if the pitcher knows he can’t get ahead with slop outside of the zone on the first pitch.
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#14 bighat

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Posted 14 August 2020 - 12:55 PM

 

I love seeing Eddie coming to the plate right now.

Me too.

 

I think Eddie thrives when the Twins have a few other hot bats in the lineup too. He almost gets overlooked when guys like Cruz and Kepler are hot. It seems that pitchers tend to prefer to pitch to him even over Sano, which is crazy.

 

Eddie's saved the Twins butts a few times this year and has made a habit of doing that over the course of his career. The lineup would be worse without him.

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#15 Dman

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Posted 14 August 2020 - 01:11 PM

 

He's really been laying off the first pitch. His first pitch swing rate has gone from 41.9% last season to just 18.7% this year. But when he has swung at the first pitch he's done good damage with two of his home runs coming off first pitches.

 

This what I always thought he should do.Take that first strike and play the cat and mouse game.Then instead of breaking stuff on the first pitch or fastballs in tough spots be can work the count and when he lulls the pitcher to sleep on that first pitch then he can switch it up and swing on the first pitch and maybe get a good grooved fastball instead of the junk he usually see's.

 

I am really liking the new Eddie.If he keeps this up it is gonna be hard to let him go.He is a monster bat and with some plate discipline he can be elite IMO. 

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#16 Trov

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Posted 14 August 2020 - 01:14 PM

 

I thought about mentioning this but his K rate is pretty similar to previous years, I believe. While that number is somewhat static year over year, his walk rate is what drastically changed to create that near-parity.

Yes, part of my point is that he is not just taking more pitches and walking more but his average is down because he is not putting earlier pitches in play.It to me is that he more so is chasing less later in counts, and setting himself up to be in walking counts.Years ago Jaques Jones wanted to increase walk rate, but his OBP was same with lower average.Eddie right now is in similar boat, but since his K rate is similar then the difference is his babip which if he can get to normal level his OBP should go up.

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#17 ashbury

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Posted 15 August 2020 - 06:40 AM

And he's currently got a woeful .173 BABiP.

It's a good reminder that trying to do meaningful analysis on (now) 75 plate appearances is risky. By rights, Eddie should be in a position where we're discussing his monster start to the season - better selectivity being surely a key.
 

A mistake made more than once starts to look like a decision.


#18 SkyBlueWaters

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Posted 15 August 2020 - 11:31 AM

Rosario was signed as an outfielder in 2010. When the Twins asked him to switch to 2B in 2012 he tried it, and played 2B in A and AA ball, up through New Britain in 2014.

 

I've always given him a little extra credit for taking on the switch from outfield to second base. I think a lot of guys would want to stay in their comfort zone, because hitting is hard enough. 

 

I really like Rosario in a Twins uniform. We don't know what the future has in store for him, but for me he is always going to be one of those guys I root for, wherever he ends up. Like rooting for Carew, after he left, or Eisenreich (even though he killed us sometimes, as a Royal).

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#19 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 15 August 2020 - 05:51 PM

It's a good reminder that trying to do meaningful analysis on (now) 75 plate appearances is risky. By rights, Eddie should be in a position where we're discussing his monster start to the season - better selectivity being surely a key.

For sure, and I never expect Rosario to walk 70 times in a single season.

But even moving up to 50 or so would be a pretty big shift in his discipline and a strong uptick in corresponding numbers.

#20 AlwaysinModeration

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Posted 16 August 2020 - 10:11 AM

Since the beginning of the 2017 season, Eddie has out homered Sano 89 to 79. It seemed like a fluke in 2011 when Eddie hit one more home run than Miguel, (21/20), but he did it again in 2014 and 2018, and came real close in 2017 and 2019.

They certainly take VERY different approaches to hitting: swing and miss vs contact, selective versus free-swinging, hard-hit versus less hard-hit (Rosie rarely can hit the ball over 100mph), but at the end of the day, the power production is similar.

So much the better if Eddie starts being more selective.
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