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Lannan Question?

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#21 DaveW

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 11:33 PM

The prices are nuts... It's looking like TR should have taken him in the Span trade... I guess we will see in time.


I mean, honestly neither of us know. But I am willing to bet Lannan doesn't get the 6 million for one year on the open market he would have got through arb.

I would be willing to do a friendly wager if you want?

Loser buys the winner a Diamondcentric t-shirt? :)

terms: If lannan gets a one year deal it's less then 6 million.
if he gets multi year its less then 5.5 mill per season.

#22 Riverbrian

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 11:38 PM



The prices are nuts... It's looking like TR should have taken him in the Span trade... I guess we will see in time.


I mean, honestly neither of us know. But I am willing to bet Lannan doesn't get the 6 million for one year on the open market he would have got through arb.

I would be willing to do a friendly wager if you want?

Loser buys the winner a Diamondcentric t-shirt? :)

terms: If lannan gets a one year deal it's less then 6 million.
if he gets multi year its less then 5.5 mill per season.


Im not sure he gets 6 in arb,.. Make it 5.5 per year for a 1 year or Multi year deal... 5.5 avg. per year will be the over/under.

I'll take the bet just for the sport. Even tho... I kinda think you will win.

#23 Riverbrian

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 11:40 PM

Hold on... Now much are those Diamondcentric shirts???

My wallet for sure has an over/under.

I just looked them up... The nothing runs like Revere shirt would be perfect for both of us... 6 bucks... Are you in?

Edited by Riverbrian, 07 December 2012 - 11:48 PM.


#24 DaveW

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 11:52 PM

Hold on... Now much are those Diamondcentric shirts???

My wallet for sure has an over/under.

I just looked them up... The nothing runs like Revere shirt would be perfect for both of us... 6 bucks... Are you in?


Sure! I can always give the shirt to my Phillies friend haha

#25 Riverbrian

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Posted 08 December 2012 - 12:00 AM

Ok... This thread becomes a poll... Dave has under 5.5 per year and I have over 5.5 on Lannan. Who will win?

To make it more interesting... If he signs for exactly 5.5 avg. per year. We both have to express the exact opposite of what we actually think on this site for a week.

#26 DaveW

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Posted 08 December 2012 - 12:15 AM

Ok... This thread becomes a poll... Dave has under 5.5 per year and I have over 5.5 on Lannan. Who will win?

To make it more interesting... If he signs for exactly 5.5 avg. per year. We both have to express the exact opposite of what we actually think on this site for a week.


As long as it isn't a push... Twinsdaily/Diamondcentric wins.
Good luck to you sir (unless its the Twins who give him 6 million a year, then I might be a little bummed out)

#27 Riverbrian

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Posted 08 December 2012 - 12:31 AM

This will be fun.

#28 Shane Wahl

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Posted 08 December 2012 - 12:39 AM

There likely are idiotic GMs out there. If they were all rational, Lannan would barely make more than a minor league contract. Why? Because he is bad. Not Chone Figgins terrible, but bad. There is no reason to bother with this guy at all. DeVries and Deduno would both be better in 2013.

#29 DaveW

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Posted 08 December 2012 - 12:51 AM

There likely are idiotic GMs out there. If they were all rational, Lannan would barely make more than a minor league contract. Why? Because he is bad. Not Chone Figgins terrible, but bad. There is no reason to bother with this guy at all. DeVries and Deduno would both be better in 2013.

I think that is a little overkill.

I don't want him on the Twins really, but Lannan does have a 4.01 ERA in 780 major league innings as a starter. That certainly deserves at least a one year major league contract at 2-3 million. His peripherals aren't pretty no doubt, but he has been a perfectly solid back end guy in 3 of his 4 full seasons (sub 3.95 ERA's) and even his worst year (4.65 ERA) wasn't exactly the biggest disaster ever.

Again, I don't want him on the Twins bc of the lack of upside, but if they do sign him to a 1 year 2-3 mil deal I wouldn't get to worked up about it. Just because he spent last year in AAA doesn't mean he doesn't deserve a major league roster spot. Not all teams had the Nationals starting rotation last year :)

Also I would be pretty surprised if either DeDuno or DeVries has a better season then him next year. I have zero trust in them to produce over a full season, and think they are best served as org depth who can come up and not kill you if a pitcher goes on the DL for a few weeks.

Edited by SpiritofVodkaDave, 08 December 2012 - 12:55 AM.


#30 DaveW

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Posted 08 December 2012 - 12:59 AM

Also fun stat:
Lannan career ERA: 4.01
Dempster career ERA: 4.33

last 3 full years: Dempster: 4.04 ERA
Lannan: 4.03 (4.13 if you don't count his 2009 and swap in 2012 instead)

Lannan: 28 Years old
Dempster:35 Years old

Off topic: I have no idea why people are talking about giving 30+ million and 3 years to Dempster!!!!

#31 Shane Wahl

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Posted 08 December 2012 - 01:11 AM

I was not aware that ERA was the end all, be all stat. The guy barely strikes more people out than he walks and it's all going south. Dempster had a rough 2011, but 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2012 were all very good.

#32 DaveW

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Posted 08 December 2012 - 01:20 AM

I was not aware that ERA was the end all, be all stat. The guy barely strikes more people out than he walks and it's all going south. Dempster had a rough 2011, but 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2012 were all very good.


Did I ever say it was an end all be all stat? I was just pointing out that if you look at their careers, and past 3 years, the "results" are pretty similar. Also a guy like Dempster at age 35 isn't likely to suddenly show some huge vast improvement.

By no means am I saying Lannan is a better pitcher then Dempster, I am just saying that giving Dempster 30-39 mil over 3 years is a mistake.

#33 Riverbrian

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Posted 08 December 2012 - 01:25 AM

ERA isn't the end all be all stat because its a team game. ERAs can be distorted by Good Defense and Not so good defense. Distorted by RP failures. But it's still a pretty nice indicator.

WHIP is still my favorite and Lannan is a little below average in that department... Yet so Is Pelfrey... So go figure. I can be as conflicted as the rest of us.

#34 glunn

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Posted 08 December 2012 - 01:27 AM

How has Lannan kept his ERA so low? Lots of ground balls? Luck? Voodoo?

#35 DaveW

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Posted 08 December 2012 - 01:31 AM

How has Lannan kept his ERA so low? Lots of ground balls? Luck? Voodoo?


A combination of good defense and a decent but by no means great GB% (53%) Dempster is 46% FWIW

#36 old nurse

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Posted 08 December 2012 - 01:38 AM

Let's cherry pick stats and call ourselves right. Over the last 6 years Dempster will win a dozen games, lose about the same, and get to the mound 30 times a year. For that he will be absurdly paid. xfip and War would lead you to believe that Dempster is just above an average pitcher while Lannan is below average. On a very good team he won a few games. Who knows, if cheap enough the Twins will coach him up a level.

#37 DaveW

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Posted 08 December 2012 - 01:43 AM

Let's cherry pick stats and call ourselves right. Over the last 6 years Dempster will win a dozen games, lose about the same, and get to the mound 30 times a year. For that he will be absurdly paid. xfip and War would lead you to believe that Dempster is just above an average pitcher while Lannan is below average. On a very good team he won a few games. Who knows, if cheap enough the Twins will coach him up a level.

I don't disagree with a thing you just said. I think Dempster is a safer bet to be "better" in 2013/2014 then Lannan. My whole point is I don't want the Twins rushing out to overpay for Dempster a guy who is "just above an average pitcher" who is 35.

but if you ask me who I would rather have:
Lannan at 2-3 mil for 1 year
or Dempster for 33-39 mil for 3 years?

Give me Lannan any day. Worst case scenario is he sucks and the Twins live to fight (spend) another day/year. Signing Dempster long term could hurt our potential to bring in not only help this year, but moving forward.

As they say, there really is no such thing as a "terrible" one year deal.

#38 Riverbrian

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Posted 08 December 2012 - 01:44 AM

How has Lannan kept his ERA so low? Lots of ground balls? Luck? Voodoo?


I watched him pitch a couple of games... His fastball isn't hard but it sinks. If he keeps it down he can be effective and its one of the best pitches for getting out of jams. But guys that rely on the sinker get lit up if they leave it up. A good example of that is... Blackburn.

I like guys who can get a good sink on their two seamer but I feel more comfortable with guys who also have a 2nd pitch if they lose command of that sinker. That is where Lannan could get into trouble and exactly where Blackie got into trouble.

Pelfrey on the other hand is similiar but his sinker is much harder and I think his arm strength will let him get away with mistakes easier.

Edited by Riverbrian, 08 December 2012 - 01:48 AM.