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Article: In Terry I Trust

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#61 ThePuck

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 01:23 PM

[quote name='SpiritofVodkaDave'][quote name='Brock Beauchamp'][quote name='SpiritofVodkaDave'][quote name='Brock Beauchamp']
Excuses[/QUOTE]

The fact is Upton has outperformed him significantly over the last 3 years. Poll 30 GMs in the league and ask them who a btter player is and you will get 30 Upton answers. If Span was considered the better player you would have seen a lot more rumors in regards to the trade and a lot larger names being thrown around.[/QUOTE]

Jesus Christ, Dave. I said that if you factor in injuries, the pendulum swings heavily into Upton's favor. Or did you also miss the sentence that read "[COLOR=#333333] It's hard to separate the player from the injuries in this case." We were talking hypotheticals, not actual reality. In reality, Span's injury history is a massive drag on his value.

*headdesk*[/COLOR][/QUOTE]
He was healthy in 2010 yet posted an OPS about a 100 points less, you write it off as pretty miserable overall, yet still say that taking injuries out of it you'd prefer Span. I was showing you that even when healthy Upton is outperforming him.[/QUOTE]

You mean his 2nd full season? Yeah, it's unusual to see a player drop some in his second full season...seems they have a name for that...

#62 ThePuck

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 01:25 PM

Maybe, maybe not. But that's getting away from the first point when you said Upton rates as above average in every single defensive statistic out there. That is clearly not the case.

His UZR has fallen considerably over the last five years. Over the last 3 years, it has been pretty bland. Additionally, bWAR's defensive metric has never liked Upton, making him negative for his career.


Exactly...

#63 gunnarthor

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 01:26 PM

[quote name='SpiritofVodkaDave'][quote name='Brock Beauchamp'][quote name='SpiritofVodkaDave'][quote name='Brock Beauchamp']
Excuses[/QUOTE]

The fact is Upton has outperformed him significantly over the last 3 years. Poll 30 GMs in the league and ask them who a btter player is and you will get 30 Upton answers. If Span was considered the better player you would have seen a lot more rumors in regards to the trade and a lot larger names being thrown around.[/QUOTE]

Jesus Christ, Dave. I said that if you factor in injuries, the pendulum swings heavily into Upton's favor. Or did you also miss the sentence that read "[COLOR=#333333] It's hard to separate the player from the injuries in this case." We were talking hypotheticals, not actual reality. In reality, Span's injury history is a massive drag on his value.

*headdesk*[/COLOR][/QUOTE]
He was healthy in 2010 yet posted an OPS about a 100 points less, you write it off as pretty miserable overall, yet still say that taking injuries out of it you'd prefer Span. I was showing you that even when healthy Upton is outperforming him.[/QUOTE]

For their careers, Upton has a 105 OPS+, Span a 104. Over the last 5 years, both have a 104. In the same time, Span has a 105 wRC+ to Upton's 106. They are different type of players but about equal in offensive rate stats. (Durability is a different issue).

#64 Jim Crikket

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 01:26 PM

So when I read media reports that Ryan may be looking at a Pohlad-imposed limit near the $90 million mark, it disgusts me.

Why don't we wait and see how much he actually spends before getting disgusted? I agree with your overall viewpoints about payroll but this seems like needless hand-wringing to me.


Sorry, I keep forgetting that TD is only for discussion regarding what has actually transpired.

The $90 million figure is not something just being floated out there online by us know-nothings, it's been appearing in "real" media reports, including the beat writers who supposedly have some level of insight (not to mention contacts within the organization itself) that the rest of us don't.

Of course, the Twins do have years of history where they've had ownership approval to dive right in to the free agent market to get top pitching, so why would anyone doubt them, right?
[COLOR=#0000cd]I opine about the Twins and Kernels regularly at[/COLOR][COLOR=#800000] Knuckleballsblog.com[/COLOR][COLOR=#0000cd] while my alter ego, SD Buhr covers the Kernels for [/COLOR][COLOR=#0000cd][COLOR=#800000]MetroSportsReport.com[/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=#0000cd].[/COLOR] [COLOR=#0000cd]
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#65 ThePuck

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 01:27 PM

either you are not reading what I am saying, I said it badly, or something else is going on. Because I never once said what you are saying I said. Sometimes I wonder if people are willing to listen to people they do not agree with at all. Because it sure does not feel that way a lot on this site.


Well, I just had someone say I don't know much about baseball cause I posted an opinion he disagreed with so, yeah, there are people like that here.

#66 JB_Iowa

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 01:29 PM

First, I have no problem with this trade. I really hope that the Twins are rebuilding.

Second, it is FAR too early in TR2 to reach any conclusions about TR's performance - good or bad. As for trusting him... Trust him for what? trust that he is being honest? I don't think he lies but I do think he is pretty closed lipped (I'm not saying that's bad) and he also knows how to bluff (at least with the public). Trust that he will turn this team around? The jury is still out on that one.

Third, there is not one iota of doubt in my mind that the primary reason why Terry Ryan replaced BS as the Twins' GM is because Terry Ryan is fiscally conservative (a/k/a cheap). THAT is probably the one thing about Terry Ryan that I TRUST absolutely.

#67 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 01:29 PM

[quote name='ThePuck'][quote name='SpiritofVodkaDave'][quote name='Brock Beauchamp'][quote name='SpiritofVodkaDave'][quote name='Brock Beauchamp']
Excuses[/QUOTE]

The fact is Upton has outperformed him significantly over the last 3 years. Poll 30 GMs in the league and ask them who a btter player is and you will get 30 Upton answers. If Span was considered the better player you would have seen a lot more rumors in regards to the trade and a lot larger names being thrown around.[/QUOTE]

Jesus Christ, Dave. I said that if you factor in injuries, the pendulum swings heavily into Upton's favor. Or did you also miss the sentence that read "[COLOR=#333333] It's hard to separate the player from the injuries in this case." We were talking hypotheticals, not actual reality. In reality, Span's injury history is a massive drag on his value.

*headdesk*[/COLOR][/QUOTE]
He was healthy in 2010 yet posted an OPS about a 100 points less, you write it off as pretty miserable overall, yet still say that taking injuries out of it you'd prefer Span. I was showing you that even when healthy Upton is outperforming him.[/QUOTE]

You mean his 2nd full season? Yeah, it's unusual to see a player drop some in his second full season...seems they have a name for that...[/QUOTE]

LOL, he had 411 PA his "rookie" season. If anything 2010 was closer to his "third year". He dropped off from 2008 to 2009 as well.

Heck I am not even bringing up his injury situation with you. Factor that in and it isn't even close.

#68 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 01:30 PM

He was healthy in 2010 yet posted an OPS about a 100 points less, you write it off as pretty miserable overall, yet still say that taking injuries out of it you'd prefer Span. I was showing you that even when healthy Upton is outperforming him.


You're being intentionally obtuse. 2010 Target Field was merciless to Denard, just like it was every lefty on the Twins. Morneau OPSed a whopping .300 points lower at home in 2010 while Mauer OPSed .120 points lower. Denard just had a bad year across the board. His BABIP was .020 lower than 2012 (and WAY lower than 2009) and nothing was going right for the guy. It happens.

With the move to the NL and Washington, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Span breakout in 2013 (and I hope he does, he deserves to be on a winner).

#69 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 01:32 PM

[quote name='gunnarthor'][quote name='SpiritofVodkaDave'][quote name='Brock Beauchamp'][quote name='SpiritofVodkaDave'][quote name='Brock Beauchamp']
Excuses[/QUOTE]

The fact is Upton has outperformed him significantly over the last 3 years. Poll 30 GMs in the league and ask them who a btter player is and you will get 30 Upton answers. If Span was considered the better player you would have seen a lot more rumors in regards to the trade and a lot larger names being thrown around.[/QUOTE]

Jesus Christ, Dave. I said that if you factor in injuries, the pendulum swings heavily into Upton's favor. Or did you also miss the sentence that read "[COLOR=#333333] It's hard to separate the player from the injuries in this case." We were talking hypotheticals, not actual reality. In reality, Span's injury history is a massive drag on his value.

*headdesk*[/COLOR][/QUOTE]
He was healthy in 2010 yet posted an OPS about a 100 points less, you write it off as pretty miserable overall, yet still say that taking injuries out of it you'd prefer Span. I was showing you that even when healthy Upton is outperforming him.[/QUOTE]

For their careers, Upton has a 105 OPS+, Span a 104. Over the last 5 years, both have a 104. In the same time, Span has a 105 wRC+ to Upton's 106. They are different type of players but about equal in offensive rate stats. (Durability is a different issue).[/QUOTE]

Teams don't career about what Upton and Span were doing 5 years ago, it's a what have you done for me lately league. Teams look at: What did you do last year? What did you do the last 3 years.

The point is, at this stage who is the more valuable player.
Upton in the last 3 years has significantly better offensive numbers in both OPS and OPS+, Upton has value on the basepaths and Upton is much less of a "health risk" defensively we can go back and forth on various metrics, but overall the past 3 years and even before that rate both as above average CF's.

#70 ThePuck

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 01:34 PM

Span had a nice bounce back year last year but only started to get strong in the 2nd half. I believe a full heathy Span, which I believe he will be next year after seein his 2nd half the last season.

Span's WAR was 3.9, Upton's was 3.3. Seems close when you see it that way. Then when you look at qualifying players and see Span tied for 43rd while Upton is tied for 61, it's a little bit different.

Upton hits HRs...that's his positive. Very low BA, low OBP, LOTS of Ks, below average defensive CF. But he's flashy...that and his 20Hr power gets him a big contract

#71 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 01:37 PM


He was healthy in 2010 yet posted an OPS about a 100 points less, you write it off as pretty miserable overall, yet still say that taking injuries out of it you'd prefer Span. I was showing you that even when healthy Upton is outperforming him.


You're being intentionally obtuse. 2010 Target Field was merciless to Denard, just like it was every lefty on the Twins. Morneau OPSed a whopping .300 points lower at home in 2010 while Mauer OPSed .120 points lower. Denard just had a bad year across the board. His BABIP was .020 lower than 2012 (and WAY lower than 2009) and nothing was going right for the guy. It happens.

With the move to the NL and Washington, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Span breakout in 2013 (and I hope he does, he deserves to be on a winner).

Um in 2010 Span actually had an OPS 160 points HIGHER at home on the road and besides so um....what?

If you are saying that Target Field rated as a pitchers park in 2010, you are correct, however Tampa Bay rated as a pitchers park as well, actually quite a bit more, and more overall in its existence.

#72 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 01:44 PM

Span had a nice bounce back year last year but only started to get strong in the 2nd half. I believe a full heathy Span, which I believe he will be next year after seein his 2nd half the last season.

Span's WAR was 3.9, Upton's was 3.3. Seems close when you see it that way. Then when you look at qualifying players and see Span tied for 43rd while Upton is tied for 61, it's a little bit different.

Upton hits HRs...that's his positive. Very low BA, low OBP, LOTS of Ks, below average defensive CF. But he's flashy...that and his 20Hr power gets him a big contract


So now we are moving this argument all the way down to a 2nd half argument? Well in the 2nd half last year Upton improved quite a bit as well (actually quite a bit more then Span) .819 OPS vs .783, and Upton upped his by 140 points vs Spans 80 points (not that any of this really has anything to do with anything)

You bring up WAR, which is very flawed anyways, but it should be noted that Upton posted a 4.1 and 4.1 in 2010/2011 while Span posted a 2.6 and 2.2. So over those three years Upton had a WAR almost 3 wins total higher then Span during that time.

Additionally, again you say below average CF and you are wrong.

#73 gunnarthor

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 01:50 PM

The point is, at this stage who is the more valuable player.
Upton in the last 3 years has significantly better offensive numbers in both OPS and OPS+, Upton has value on the basepaths and Upton is much less of a "health risk" defensively we can go back and forth on various metrics, but overall the past 3 years and even before that rate both as above average CF's.


You seem to keep moving your endpoints to suit you. You wanted to use 5 years for defensive stats b/c one year has a sample size issue but most stat guys say use three years for defensive stats. When 1 or 3 years are used, Span is the better defensive player and it isn't particularly close. So you pick 5 which coincides with Upton's best years and Span's worst and also the years defensive stats at the Dome were sorta fuzzy. And that way you get to ignore the downward trend Upton has shown in the defensive stats.

For offense, you won't use 5 years b/c they include Span's best years, so we'll chop it to three, which include Span's injury affected years. But if we use one year or a 5 year time period, we see the offensive differences are basically nil.

And all this was after you used hyperbole to support your nonsense claim that according to all stats, Upton was signficantly better defensively.

You wonder why people are having trouble with your posts?

#74 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 01:52 PM

[quote name='SpiritofVodkaDave'][quote name='Brock Beauchamp'][quote name='SpiritofVodkaDave']
He was healthy in 2010 yet posted an OPS about a 100 points less, you write it off as pretty miserable overall, yet still say that taking injuries out of it you'd prefer Span. I was showing you that even when healthy Upton is outperforming him.[/QUOTE]

You're being intentionally obtuse. 2010 Target Field was merciless to Denard, just like it was every lefty on the Twins. Morneau OPSed a whopping .300 points lower at home in 2010 while Mauer OPSed .120 points lower. Denard just had a bad year across the board. His BABIP was .020 lower than 2012 (and WAY lower than 2009) and nothing was going right for the guy. It happens.

With the move to the NL and Washington, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Span breakout in 2013 (and I hope he does, he deserves to be on a winner).[/QUOTE]
Um in 2010 Span actually had an OPS 160 points HIGHER at home on the road and besides so um....what?

If you are saying that Target Field rated as a pitchers park in 2010, you are correct, however Tampa Bay rated as a pitchers park as well, actually quite a bit more, and more overall in its existence.[/QUOTE]

Span had a higher OPS at home but his splits were so skewed and 2010 Target Field was so brutal to lefties that the only logical conclusion is that the stadium got into his head. Unless you think Adam Dunn suddenly turned into a piece of crap with the move to the White Sox. Guys struggle in new stadiums, new teams, etc. and it impacts them negatively everywhere. Span's peripherals stayed pretty true (LD, GB, FB, BB) while his IFFB actually dropped and, not surprisingly, his HR/FB plummeted to under 3%. His BABIP was also .060 lower than 2009. If that's not a case of "this stadium is ****ing me", I don't know what is. He was one really unlucky dude in 2010.

Tropicana is a pitcher's park, no doubt about it. It's also turf, which helps a speedy guy when he puts it on the ground or lines it to the outfield (which Upton doesn't do often, but he does hit it on the ground 40% of the time). But that's a side argument... I think Upton is a fine player.

#75 ThePuck

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 01:52 PM

Span had a nice bounce back year last year but only started to get strong in the 2nd half. I believe a full heathy Span, which I believe he will be next year after seein his 2nd half the last season.

Span's WAR was 3.9, Upton's was 3.3. Seems close when you see it that way. Then when you look at qualifying players and see Span tied for 43rd while Upton is tied for 61, it's a little bit different.

Upton hits HRs...that's his positive. Very low BA, low OBP, LOTS of Ks, below average defensive CF. But he's flashy...that and his 20Hr power gets him a big contract


So now we are moving this argument all the way down to a 2nd half argument? Well in the 2nd half last year Upton improved quite a bit as well (actually quite a bit more then Span) .819 OPS vs .783, and Upton upped his by 140 points vs Spans 80 points (not that any of this really has anything to do with anything)

You bring up WAR, which is very flawed anyways, but it should be noted that Upton posted a 4.1 and 4.1 in 2010/2011 while Span posted a 2.6 and 2.2. So over those three years Upton had a WAR almost 3 wins total higher then Span during that time.

Additionally, again you say below average CF and you are wrong.


yeah, you're right...Upton is much better than Span...ridiculous to think otherwise. Also ridiculous to think he's a below average defender when the metrics over the last three years shows all his negative defensive runs saved, his UZR a whopping combined .8 over the last three years ( well in the negative this year) and the Fielding Bible award voters completely leaving his name off their ballots the last two years. I'm the one who is wrong as to the kind of defender he is now.

I'm done, you've completely turned me around...you're right, I clearly know very little about baseball..

#76 ThePuck

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 01:57 PM


The point is, at this stage who is the more valuable player.
Upton in the last 3 years has significantly better offensive numbers in both OPS and OPS+, Upton has value on the basepaths and Upton is much less of a "health risk" defensively we can go back and forth on various metrics, but overall the past 3 years and even before that rate both as above average CF's.


You seem to keep moving your endpoints to suit you. You wanted to use 5 years for defensive stats b/c one year has a sample size issue but most stat guys say use three years for defensive stats. When 1 or 3 years are used, Span is the better defensive player and it isn't particularly close. So you pick 5 which coincides with Upton's best years and Span's worst and also the years defensive stats at the Dome were sorta fuzzy. And that way you get to ignore the downward trend Upton has shown in the defensive stats.

For offense, you won't use 5 years b/c they include Span's best years, so we'll chop it to three, which include Span's injury affected years. But if we use one year or a 5 year time period, we see the offensive differences are basically nil.

And all this was after you used hyperbole to support your nonsense claim that according to all stats, Upton was signficantly better defensively.

You wonder why people are having trouble with your posts?


Over the next three years, when considering the overall player ability and the contracts, who do you think will be more valuable to his club? Upton or Span?

#77 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 02:01 PM

Over the next three years, when considering the overall player ability and the contracts, who do you think will be more valuable to his club? Upton or Span?

Yeah, this was never about the contracts as I never contended that part. But way to try to grossly skew the argument at the last second after I pointed out how Upton has been the superior player the past 3 years.

#78 tellis205

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 02:04 PM

This trade will look pretty good in 2 years when Meyer looks dominating in a Twins uniform and Span is on the 15 day DL which turns into 60 days with a sprained foot.

#79 ThePuck

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 02:04 PM


Over the next three years, when considering the overall player ability and the contracts, who do you think will be more valuable to his club? Upton or Span?

Yeah, this was never about the contracts as I never contended that part. But way to try to grossly skew the argument at the last second after I pointed out how Upton has been the superior player the past 3 years.


No, I was asking him a different question..a different question free of our debate...

But, again, I'd still take Span...I've already said that more than once. I believe he's the better overall player. I don't back down from that.

#80 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 02:04 PM


The point is, at this stage who is the more valuable player.
Upton in the last 3 years has significantly better offensive numbers in both OPS and OPS+, Upton has value on the basepaths and Upton is much less of a "health risk" defensively we can go back and forth on various metrics, but overall the past 3 years and even before that rate both as above average CF's.


You seem to keep moving your endpoints to suit you. You wanted to use 5 years for defensive stats b/c one year has a sample size issue but most stat guys say use three years for defensive stats. When 1 or 3 years are used, Span is the better defensive player and it isn't particularly close. So you pick 5 which coincides with Upton's best years and Span's worst and also the years defensive stats at the Dome were sorta fuzzy. And that way you get to ignore the downward trend Upton has shown in the defensive stats.

For offense, you won't use 5 years b/c they include Span's best years, so we'll chop it to three, which include Span's injury affected years. But if we use one year or a 5 year time period, we see the offensive differences are basically nil.

And all this was after you used hyperbole to support your nonsense claim that according to all stats, Upton was signficantly better defensively.

You wonder why people are having trouble with your posts?


The only reason I brought up his 5 years prior of defensive stats was the fact that he was being called "below average" defensively because of one years worth of UZR data. I brought up the 5 years to show that when looking at advanced defensive metrics it is often foolish to just look at one year, hell If we still look at the two years prior to 2012 UZR data Upton still shows up as a positive. The fact that he didn't get a vote in the fielding bible this year means nothing to me.

Also, I never said Upton was better defensively then Span, I just said that calling Span above average while Upton below average was disingenuous for the sake of an argument.

#81 ThePuck

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 02:05 PM

This trade will look pretty good in 2 years when Meyer looks dominating in a Twins uniform and Span is on the 15 day DL which turns into 60 days with a sprained foot.


I doubt the DL part, I don't think a player getting a concussion makes him injury prone, but I'm okay with the trade. It's a move for the future. I hope all other trades, if there are any more, go the same route.

#82 ThePuck

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 02:09 PM

The only reason I brought up his 5 years prior of defensive stats was the fact that he was being called "below average" defensively because of one years worth of UZR data.


So when I mentioned the Fielding Bible award voters (who judge defenders for a living) not giving him a vote and his negative defensive runs saved in 2010 and 2011, I was just using one year of data...and ONLY UZR? That's Interesting. Maybe one needs to go back and look at that post. On top of that, are you or aren't you the one who said all defensive metrics show he's an above average defender? A combined UZR of .8 over the last three years and an average of -10 defensive runs saved over the last three years show he's above average?

Edited by ThePuck, 03 December 2012 - 02:14 PM.


#83 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 02:09 PM

His BABIP was also .060 lower than 2009. If that's not a case of "this stadium is ****ing me", I don't know what is. He was one really unlucky dude in 2010.


I'm not going to debate your "TF is tough on lefties" because like I stated before, Span isn't your typical left handed batter.

As far as you calling him a really unlucky dude in 2010 you may be only partiall correct. Couldn't it be argued that his BABIP in 2009 (.353) was in fact pretty "lucky"? Especially since he hasn't come within 35 pts of that number since then?

#84 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 02:12 PM

His BABIP was also .060 lower than 2009. If that's not a case of "this stadium is ****ing me", I don't know what is. He was one really unlucky dude in 2010.


I'm not going to debate your "TF is tough on lefties" because like I stated before, Span isn't your typical left handed batter.

As far as you calling him a really unlucky dude in 2010 you may be only partiall correct. Couldn't it be argued that his BABIP in 2009 (.353) was in fact pretty "lucky"? Especially since he hasn't come within 35 pts of that number since then?


Oh, absolutely. His 2009 BABIP was extremely lucky. Six of one, half dozen of the other, which is why I initially referenced his 2012 BABIP, which was still .020 higher than 2010.

If you're allowed to use Span's 2010 against him, it's only fair to come down hard on Upton for his 2012, where he didn't even get on base 30% of the time. Unless you're knocking 40 balls out of the park, that's awful. Weighting OBP at 1.5-1.8:1 versus slugging (about where it should be weighted depending on who you talk to), Span was considerably better in 2012 than Upton.

Again, I don't think one player is significantly better than the other. I only stated that if injuries were no concern, I think I'd rather have Span because he makes less outs.

#85 ThePuck

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 02:12 PM

[quote name='Brock Beauchamp'][quote name='SpiritofVodkaDave'][quote name='Brock Beauchamp'] His BABIP was also .060 lower than 2009. If that's not a case of "this stadium is ****ing me", I don't know what is. He was one really unlucky dude in 2010.
[/QUOTE]

I'm not going to debate your "TF is tough on lefties" because like I stated before, Span isn't your typical left handed batter.

As far as you calling him a really unlucky dude in 2010 you may be only partiall correct. Couldn't it be argued that his BABIP in 2009 (.353) was in fact pretty "lucky"? Especially since he hasn't come within 35 pts of that number since then?[/QUOTE]

Oh, absolutely. His 2009 BABIP was extremely lucky. Six of one, half dozen of the other, which is why I initially referenced his 2012 BABIP, which was still .020 higher than 2010.

If you're allowed to use Span's 2010 against him, it's only fair to come down hard on Upton for his 2012, where he didn't even get on base 30% of the time. Unless you're knocking 40 balls out of the park, that's awful.[/QUOTE]

and his BA under .250 and his 169Ks

#86 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 02:13 PM


The only reason I brought up his 5 years prior of defensive stats was the fact that he was being called "below average" defensively because of one years worth of UZR data.


So when I mentioned his negative defensive runs saved in 2010 and 2011, I was just using one year of data? That's Interesting. On top of that, are you or aren't you the one who said all defensive metrics show he's an above average defender? A combined UZR of .8 over the last three years and an average of -10 defensive runs saved over the last three years show he's above average?

I already mentioned that I prefer to use UZR, and also pointed out that within the last 3 years Span had a negative RS as well. Does that mean he is below average?

Call him what you want, the fact is calling Span "Above Average" while dismissing Upton as "Below Average" was incorrect as it was stating that one player is significantly better defensively, when that just isn't the case.

On the other side of things, I show how Upton is significantly more valuable as a runner and a hitter, and you just scoff and make snarky "well chicks dig the long ball derp" quips while ignoring that fact that he has outperformed him quite a bit OPS and OPS+ wise, and as far as base path value goes? It's not even close.

Oh, and this doesn't even take into fact that Span has some health questions moving forward.

#87 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 02:16 PM

[quote name='Brock Beauchamp'][quote name='SpiritofVodkaDave'][quote name='Brock Beauchamp'] His BABIP was also .060 lower than 2009. If that's not a case of "this stadium is ****ing me", I don't know what is. He was one really unlucky dude in 2010.
[/QUOTE]

I'm not going to debate your "TF is tough on lefties" because like I stated before, Span isn't your typical left handed batter.

As far as you calling him a really unlucky dude in 2010 you may be only partiall correct. Couldn't it be argued that his BABIP in 2009 (.353) was in fact pretty "lucky"? Especially since he hasn't come within 35 pts of that number since then?[/QUOTE]

Oh, absolutely. His 2009 BABIP was extremely lucky. Six of one, half dozen of the other, which is why I initially referenced his 2012 BABIP, which was still .020 higher than 2010.

If you're allowed to use Span's 2010 against him, it's only fair to come down hard on Upton for his 2012, where he didn't even get on base 30% of the time. Unless you're knocking 40 balls out of the park, that's awful. Weighting OBP at 1.5-1.8:1 versus slugging (about where it should be weighted depending on who you talk to), Span was considerably better in 2012 than Upton.[/QUOTE]

Funny I could have sworn you were one of the people saying the Twins should have kept Hardy around, while other people were crying about his .310 OBP.

So now its all about OBP? Did Upton have his warts this year? no doubt. But if you look at everything all together with salary taken out of the picture its Upton in a landslide. If you take injuries out of the picture it's still Upton, even with your weighted OPS average Upton outperformed Span over the past 3 years.

#88 ThePuck

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 02:20 PM

[quote name='SpiritofVodkaDave'][quote name='ThePuck'][quote name='SpiritofVodkaDave']
The only reason I brought up his 5 years prior of defensive stats was the fact that he was being called "below average" defensively because of one years worth of UZR data. [/QUOTE]

So when I mentioned his negative defensive runs saved in 2010 and 2011, I was just using one year of data? That's Interesting. On top of that, are you or aren't you the one who said all defensive metrics show he's an above average defender? A combined UZR of .8 over the last three years and an average of -10 defensive runs saved over the last three years show he's above average?[/QUOTE]
I already mentioned that I prefer to use UZR, and also pointed out that within the last 3 years Span had a negative RS as well. Does that mean he is below average?

Call him what you want, the fact is calling Span "Above Average" while dismissing Upton as "Below Average" was incorrect as it was stating that one player is significantly better defensively, when that just isn't the case.

On the other side of things, I show how Upton is significantly more valuable as a runner and a hitter, and you just scoff and make snarky "well chicks dig the long ball derp" quips while ignoring that fact that he has outperformed him quite a bit OPS and OPS+ wise, and as far as base path value goes? It's not even close.

Oh, and this doesn't even take into fact that Span has some health questions moving forward.[/QUOTE]

Oh, you prefer to use UZR...so you prefer to use stats that help your debate and discard those that don't. Even though Fangraph does both stats, only one has merit? UZR doesn't really help you though. Not for the last three years. And Span DOES NOT have a negative DRS over the last three years in CF. He had 20 this year, 9 in 2011 (while only playing half a season, BTW) and a -5 in 2010. That's not a negative, that's a big positive.

And don't talk to me about snarky comments...you began our debate saying I didn't know baseball cause you didn't agree with my opinion. Doesn't get much snarkier than that. Or is it only okay when you do it?

Edited by ThePuck, 03 December 2012 - 02:23 PM.


#89 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 02:21 PM

Funny I could have sworn you were one of the people saying the Twins should have kept Hardy around, while other people were crying about his .310 OBP.

So now its all about OBP? Did Upton have his warts this year? no doubt. But if you look at everything all together with salary taken out of the picture its Upton in a landslide. If you take injuries out of the picture it's still Upton, even with your weighted OPS average Upton outperformed Span over the past 3 years.


Are you ****ing kidding me, Dave? I wanted Hardy around because he's not goddamned awful and he plays shortstop (very well). Given the Twins history of middle infielders, who didn't want that? Hardy's OBP is not optimal but when your other options include All-Stars like (fill in name of god-awful Twins middle infielder here), I'd take the corpse of Honus Wagner over those guys.

But when given an option, I'll always take the guy who makes less outs over the guy who can't get on base. Over the course of a season, that's the best way to win baseball games. I'm also the guy that constantly repeats "the most important thing in baseball is not getting out".

#90 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 02:24 PM


Funny I could have sworn you were one of the people saying the Twins should have kept Hardy around, while other people were crying about his .310 OBP.

So now its all about OBP? Did Upton have his warts this year? no doubt. But if you look at everything all together with salary taken out of the picture its Upton in a landslide. If you take injuries out of the picture it's still Upton, even with your weighted OPS average Upton outperformed Span over the past 3 years.


Are you ****ing kidding me, Dave? I wanted Hardy around because he's not goddamned awful and he plays shortstop (very well). Given the Twins history of middle infielders, who didn't want that? Hardy's OBP is not optimal but when your other options include All-Stars like (fill in name of god-awful Twins middle infielder here), I'd take the corpse of Honus Wagner over those guys.

But when given an option, I'll always take the guy who makes less outs over the guy who can't get on base. Over the course of a season, that's the best way to win baseball games. I'm also the guy that constantly repeats "the most important thing in baseball is not getting out".

Carroll had a higher OBP then Span last year, and significantly higher then Hardy (and Hardy as a Twin). Does that mean you prefer Carroll at SS over Hardy?