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Parmelee for Span in the OF. How much will it cost in runs?

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#1 jorgenswest

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 05:12 PM

Trading Denard Span to get pitching was necessary. Taking the high upside/higher risk prospect was wise. It is very difficult to get a top starting pitching prospect.

However, I am concerned about the Twins plan for the outfield. Is Parmelee in RF the plan?

Denard Span was credited with saving 20 runs above average (1073 innings) as a CF last year. Ben Revere has a -4 for his career in CF (1123 innings). That is a -24 run change.

Ben Revere fares much better in RF saving 11 runs above average. It helps that the average RF is nowhere near the average CF. If Parmelee replaces him, how will he fare. It is difficult to know. I would think the Twins would be fortunate if he was in the -10 neighborhood. He has played very little outfield in the upper minors. Willingham was a -13 in LF in 2012. It would seem that Parmelee would be in his neighborhood defensively.

If the Twins lose around 20 runs to average in CF and another 20 in right field that 40 run loss represents a significant increase to runs given up. It Those additional 40 runs given up equate to 4 additional losses. Likely it won;t be that bad. I think Revere will be better than league average in CF. Thirty runs might be a more reasonable projection.

Poor defense has another huge impact on the team. Poor defense will also extend innings, burden an overworked bullpen and slow the development of young pitchers.

Data was taken from fangraphs.com (defensive runs saved)

Edited by jorgenswest, 01 December 2012 - 05:20 PM.


#2 Shane Wahl

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 05:15 PM

Yeah the OF defense is going to be fairly bad, especially compared to 2012. The Twins now have below average OF defense and no leadoff hitter.

#3 Shane Wahl

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 05:17 PM

Tangential point, I think the Span trade also potentially guarantees that Jamey Carroll starts somewhere (likely second base) since Gardy doesn't understand Mauer's worth at all batting second and there is certainly no one else to put up there with Revere.

#4 Riverbrian

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 05:29 PM

I won't try to put a number on it... I'm more concerned with the timing and game situations when outfield range would come into play. One bad moment can lead to runs and a lot of runs at the wrong time. When you are trying to instill confidence in young pitchers and confidence in your team. Defense is a huge thing in my mind.

I think OF Defense for our squad has been weakened to start the season but I do expect Hicks or even Hicks/Arcia to arrive after the Arb Clock thing and it will be better later. I believe eventually Willingham will be the primary DH. Maybe as soon as July.

#5 old nurse

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 05:46 PM

1. Is DRS as subjective as UZR?
2. Is Chief still taking his afternoon nap as to not weigh in on the subject?

#6 spideyo

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 05:52 PM

My gut feeling is that Revere will end up saving more runs than Span did last year. His increased range will also make it easier for Willingham and whomever is in RF.

At this point, I don't think Parmelee is going to play every single day. More than likely, I see a platoon with Mastroianni or Plouffe. (Mostly dependent on wether or not they pick up a 3B in the off-season) With Plouf/Parm, you'll likely see stats similar to Willingham. With Maestro, it'll balance out closer to average.

As it stands right now, their OF has taken a step back in defense, but not as huge as it could be. As long as we've got an excellent CF, and guys who at least look like they belong in the OF, I'm ok with it. I'm much more concerned about our incredibly unsettled IF. Quality pitchers and a decent IF will significantly limit the exposure of our OF defense.

#7 spideyo

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 05:56 PM

Also, are all OF plays factored in when calculating "runs saved"? I'm just wondering if having quality cut-off guys who get back far enough and make quick turnaround relays factor in to the picture.

#8 Ultima Ratio

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 06:44 PM

It can't get any worse than running Doumit out to a corner OF spot.

OF Defense:

Parm>me>Delmon Young>Doumit
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#9 Riverbrian

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 06:48 PM

1. Is DRS as subjective as UZR?
2. Is Chief still taking his afternoon nap as to not weigh in on the subject?


I do try to keep an open mind with defensive metrics and I really look forward as they are refined over time. But:

Trumbo 7 in LF -6 in RF
Justin Maxwell 12 CF -2 Both LF and RF
Hechavarria 2 SS -1 3B
Nyjer Morgan 7 CF -1 RF
kyle Seager 3 2B -7 3B
Ruggiano 6 CF -4 LF
Greg Dobbs -1 1B -10 3B
Duda -2 LF -16 RF
Bryce Harper 13 CF -8 RF/LF combined
Domonic Brown 0 LF -6 RF
David Murphy 7 LF -1 RF
Zobrist 0 SS -5 2B
Keppinger 7 3B -1 1B
Todd Frazier 3 3B -6 1B
Tyler Colvin 7 CF -2 RF
And Ben Revere 11 RF -3 CF

Plus
Darwin Barney 28 in 2012 and 1 in 2011

I consider the above examples grains of salt.

#10 jorgenswest

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 06:54 PM

Doumit and Willingham both are most useful in a DH role. They both look like bargains because all of their value is offense. The runs they cost the team due to defense isn't as apparent.

The Twins, based on their moves in the last year, don't value highly the newer metrics associated with defense. I think their is a growing group of teams who think otherwise. Let's hope the Twins are right in their skepticism of these new measures.

#11 jorgenswest

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 07:06 PM

1. Is DRS as subjective as UZR?
2. Is Chief still taking his afternoon nap as to not weigh in on the subject?


I do try to keep an open mind with defensive metrics and I really look forward as they are refined over time. But:

Trumbo 7 in LF -6 in RF
Justin Maxwell 12 CF -2 Both LF and RF
Hechavarria 2 SS -1 3B
Nyjer Morgan 7 CF -1 RF
kyle Seager 3 2B -7 3B
Ruggiano 6 CF -4 LF
Greg Dobbs -1 1B -10 3B
Duda -2 LF -16 RF
Bryce Harper 13 CF -8 RF/LF combined
Domonic Brown 0 LF -6 RF
David Murphy 7 LF -1 RF
Zobrist 0 SS -5 2B
Keppinger 7 3B -1 1B
Todd Frazier 3 3B -6 1B
Tyler Colvin 7 CF -2 RF
And Ben Revere 11 RF -3 CF

Plus
Darwin Barney 28 in 2012 and 1 in 2011

I consider the above examples grains of salt.


Are those career numbers? I would think there are serious sample size issues if those are split positions in a single season.

Below is a study about reliability and correlation. Using a minimum of 667 innings, this even/odd year study produced a high positive correlation of .59.

http://www.billjames...tics_correlate/

Are the Twins paying attention? I hope so.

#12 Badsmerf

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 07:08 PM

Revere is not worse defensively than Span. He doesn't have as good of an arm, but he has better range that can make up for it. We will lose some offense for sure though. By placing Parmelee out there you are going to lose some defense, but he will make up for it with offense.
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#13 Riverbrian

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 07:11 PM

[quote name='jorgenswest'][quote name='Riverbrian'][quote name='old nurse']1. Is DRS as subjective as UZR?
2. Is Chief still taking his afternoon nap as to not weigh in on the subject?[/QUOTE]

I do try to keep an open mind with defensive metrics and I really look forward as they are refined over time. But:

Trumbo 7 in LF -6 in RF
Justin Maxwell 12 CF -2 Both LF and RF
Hechavarria 2 SS -1 3B
Nyjer Morgan 7 CF -1 RF
kyle Seager 3 2B -7 3B
Ruggiano 6 CF -4 LF
Greg Dobbs -1 1B -10 3B
Duda -2 LF -16 RF
Bryce Harper 13 CF -8 RF/LF combined
Domonic Brown 0 LF -6 RF
David Murphy 7 LF -1 RF
Zobrist 0 SS -5 2B
Keppinger 7 3B -1 1B
Todd Frazier 3 3B -6 1B
Tyler Colvin 7 CF -2 RF
And Ben Revere 11 RF -3 CF

Plus
Darwin Barney 28 in 2012 and 1 in 2011

I consider the above examples grains of salt.[/QUOTE]

Are those career numbers? I would think there are serious sample size issues if those are split positions in a single season.

Below is a study about reliability and correlation. Using a minimum of 667 innings, this even/odd year study produced a high positive correlation of .59.

http://www.billjames...tics_correlate/

Are the Twins paying attention? I hope so.[/QUOTE]

They are just 2012... And in some cases listed... Sample Size would be an issue. Not all cases tho and I think they are legit questions.

Again... I'm not slamming the stats. Just pointing out one reason for caution.

when it comes to the Bill James article... I think Bill James is the man... I won't criticize him.... But I think it should be considered that 66% of all batted balls are outs. That in itself will stabilize the numbers and should cut down on swings in data.

in other words,.. I'd hope the study the Bill did would show consistency in data to that degree. The Devil in my mind will be in the little details.

Edited by Riverbrian, 01 December 2012 - 07:20 PM.


#14 Physics Guy

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 07:33 PM

What is your source for Runs Saved? I am very skeptical of a metric that says Span is significantly better than Revere in CF. The eye test doesn't support that conclusion (at least my eye doesn't). While the development of defensive metrics is a very worthwhile endeavor, we have to look upon them with some skepticism. The discussion is worth having, but it appears you have cherry-picked stats to support your argument. Span's UZR/150 last year was 9.6, Revere's was 18.6 (from FanGraphs). When discussing defense I think it's best to look at several stats. Also from what I understand, some defensive metrics are prone to vary significantly from year to year. Unfortunately, we don't have several years worth of stats for Revere.

#15 Physics Guy

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 07:35 PM

Sorry jorgenswest, I missed the citation at the bottom. My bad.

#16 Kwak

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 08:03 PM

Trading Denard Span to get pitching was necessary. Taking the high upside/higher risk prospect was wise. It is very difficult to get a top starting pitching prospect.

However, I am concerned about the Twins plan for the outfield. Is Parmelee in RF the plan?

Denard Span was credited with saving 20 runs above average (1073 innings) as a CF last year. Ben Revere has a -4 for his career in CF (1123 innings). That is a -24 run change.

Ben Revere fares much better in RF saving 11 runs above average. It helps that the average RF is nowhere near the average CF. If Parmelee replaces him, how will he fare. It is difficult to know. I would think the Twins would be fortunate if he was in the -10 neighborhood. He has played very little outfield in the upper minors. Willingham was a -13 in LF in 2012. It would seem that Parmelee would be in his neighborhood defensively.

If the Twins lose around 20 runs to average in CF and another 20 in right field that 40 run loss represents a significant increase to runs given up. It Those additional 40 runs given up equate to 4 additional losses. Likely it won;t be that bad. I think Revere will be better than league average in CF. Thirty runs might be a more reasonable projection.

Poor defense has another huge impact on the team. Poor defense will also extend innings, burden an overworked bullpen and slow the development of young pitchers.

Data was taken from fangraphs.com (defensive runs saved)


Shouldn't a complete analysis be net runs--delta runs scored less delta runs allowed? How does a change in pitching reflected? Example: Span CF is traded for a starting pitcher who replaces a lesser starting pitcher. Revere replaces Span in CF and Parmalee replaces Revere in RF. It seems the complete analysis involves the changes in all of these players (both defensively and offensively) rather than just the defensive OFers.

#17 kab21

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 08:26 PM

Parmelee is just a place holder in RF until one of Mauer/Morneau/Doumit ends up injured. OF Defense will certainly be ugly early in the season but in the 2nd half we could be looking at a Revere/Hicks/Arcia OF.

#18 jorgenswest

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 08:35 PM

Trading Denard Span to get pitching was necessary. Taking the high upside/higher risk prospect was wise. It is very difficult to get a top starting pitching prospect.

However, I am concerned about the Twins plan for the outfield. Is Parmelee in RF the plan?

Denard Span was credited with saving 20 runs above average (1073 innings) as a CF last year. Ben Revere has a -4 for his career in CF (1123 innings). That is a -24 run change.

Ben Revere fares much better in RF saving 11 runs above average. It helps that the average RF is nowhere near the average CF. If Parmelee replaces him, how will he fare. It is difficult to know. I would think the Twins would be fortunate if he was in the -10 neighborhood. He has played very little outfield in the upper minors. Willingham was a -13 in LF in 2012. It would seem that Parmelee would be in his neighborhood defensively.

If the Twins lose around 20 runs to average in CF and another 20 in right field that 40 run loss represents a significant increase to runs given up. It Those additional 40 runs given up equate to 4 additional losses. Likely it won;t be that bad. I think Revere will be better than league average in CF. Thirty runs might be a more reasonable projection.

Poor defense has another huge impact on the team. Poor defense will also extend innings, burden an overworked bullpen and slow the development of young pitchers.

Data was taken from fangraphs.com (defensive runs saved)


Shouldn't a complete analysis be net runs--delta runs scored less delta runs allowed? How does a change in pitching reflected? Example: Span CF is traded for a starting pitcher who replaces a lesser starting pitcher. Revere replaces Span in CF and Parmalee replaces Revere in RF. It seems the complete analysis involves the changes in all of these players (both defensively and offensively) rather than just the defensive OFers.


Good point. Parmelee's offense replaces Span's. Span would have the better OBP and Parmelee the SLG. Hard to measure value of a lead off hitter taking lots of pitches and getting on base, but Parmelee's offense is likely an improvement. I can't imagine it is a 40 run improvement.

Should I have projected Meyer on the major league roster?

#19 joeboo_22

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 09:01 PM

Parmelee wasn't terrible in RF actually quite a bit better then I figured considering he really had played significant innings out there since he was in Beloit. If he can hit .270 with decent power and make the plays he can get to he will be fine out there.

As far as Revere, the Twins should have looked at making him a second baseman. But of course that is outside the box thinking so it was never done. His defense is alright, he has good range, but a terrible arm.

Big picture though I don't think its that bad. If they could move Willingham at the deadline and put Arcia or Hicks in LF (or CF and move Revere). It would help, but the big problem is not the OF defense its the pitching.

#20 Top Gun

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 09:05 PM

It's only December maybe we should wait till spring training before goin there.

#21 kab21

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 09:43 PM

As far as Revere, the Twins should have looked at making him a second baseman. But of course that is outside the box thinking so it was never done. His defense is alright, he has good range, but a terrible arm.


yet they did it with Rosario. It's easy to say that Revere should have been moved to 2nd but I'm guessing that the Twins considered it and ultimately decided that it wouldn't work. That's being realistic.

#22 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 09:47 PM

Revere most likely has the most range for a CF in the entire major leagues, the fact that Parmelee is better then Delmon/Doumit means that it won't be a huge deal, corner OF defense at the end of the day doesn't matter that much anyways, there is a reason why corner OF's are playing Corner OF in the first place.

#23 PseudoSABR

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 10:49 PM

80 runs. The answer is 80 runs.

#24 beckmt

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Posted 02 December 2012 - 01:10 AM

I expect the Hicks or Arcia may be here sooner, as early as the start of the season. Twins may still make more trades, so I am in the wait and see mode at least till the end of spring training.

#25 stringer bell

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Posted 02 December 2012 - 04:49 AM

LF and RF are the second and third least crucial defensive positions. Wasting Revere in RF didn't make much sense. My eyes tell me that Parmelee is slow, but acceptable as a RF--below average, but not dreadful. A team can live with that if the guy can hit and I think Parmelee can and will hit. Arcia, Hicks and maybe a comeback Joe Benson are waiting in the wings. Whoever starts on the corners may not be staying there for too long.

#26 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 02 December 2012 - 08:14 AM

A couple of things. While Revere has a greater range, that is lessed by a much weaker arm. Revere has been lucky enough to see guys tag up and score from 2nd on a deep fly ball, and that rarely happens. I'd imagine defense metrics attempt to bring that into context, and while I don't know if they "figured it out" so to speak, that is a reason why Revere's defensive metrics are going to be a bit muted.

The OF defense is going to be bad going into 2013, though there's good reason to think it will be above average by the end. Morneau likely gets flipped for something allowing Parmalee to move to 1st. That will give a callup for one of Hicks, Benson, or Arcia, all of whom should be better defensively. If more than one of them is doing well in Rochester next year, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Willingham was flipped for something as well.

#27 kab21

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Posted 02 December 2012 - 08:27 AM

I hope that Arcia and Hicks have made their way into the lineup by the end of the season and have shown that they belong in a starting lineup to give the Twins an awesome OF defense. Ideally the Twins roll with something like LF - Revere, CF - Hicks and RF - Arcia. I also hope that Parmelee (along with Plouffe) shows that he is a legit MLB hitter regardless of where he plays. It would be really nice to have 4 (not revere in LF) young, cheap average or better MLB hitters claim their spots in the lineup for several years. Unfortunately a couple will bust but it will be the start of the end of this disaster.

#28 snepp

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Posted 02 December 2012 - 08:48 AM

80 runs. The answer is 80 runs.


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