Keeping in mind that only the 60 players on their list have done anything baseball related since March. They just lost 20% of their players. And that’s the ones they KNOW are positive. Every other player and coach was exposed. Typical protocol for John Q Public when one has been in close contact to a known positive is to quarrantine for 2 weeks because exposure doesn’t always register on a test right away.
So that should put the Marlins out for two weeks IMO. OK, that’s almost 1/4 of the season. How are they going to make that up?
It’s a mess. And it was extremely predictable.
Bold prediction: MLB will shut down inside a week. The NBA probably won’t restart and I don’t see the likelihood of NFL or college football this fall. Or any college athletics for that matter. Most likely not high school either.
I will address your last line. I will say the following:
- I believe that the NBA & NHL will go on because they have effectively isolated themselves from society at great monetary cost, but also personal cost in terms of essentially removing themselves from broader society to play a game. With all of the measures in place it seems unlikely that an outbreak is likely to spread, even if there were to be a positive case somehow. It's even more unlikely as the pool of teams, individuals, and staff support for those individuals in that bubble decreases
- If you attempt to play sports and aren't inside of a bubble, it is non-nonsensical to think that there will not be cases. If we are going to define positive cases as our barrier of playing non-bubble sports, sports will not go on. If the standard is no longer positive or non-positive cases... non-bubble sports leagues will have to create protocols in place for isolating outbreaks when they happen and be comfortable with minor-league or back-up players playing large amounts of games.