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How much is Nelson Cruz (and the universal DH) going to help the Twins and AL teams?

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#1 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 26 July 2020 - 06:19 PM

I listen to several really smart podcasts and I haven't heard anyone really explore this topic in-depth.

 

Unlike previous years, the AL and NL are going to square off in 33% of their games. That's a lot.

 

Except the AL has a monstrous advantage this year, or at least part of the AL has this advantage... a dedicated hitter who rakes well above standard league production with the bat.

 

Over 20 games, how are NL teams going to compete against the teams (like the Twins) that have a 1.000+ OPS hitter already established in the DH position?

 

NL teams didn't have the time or ability to really compensate for this problem (inexplicably, Puig remains unsigned...) and they're going to be pitting .700-ish OPS players against top AL teams that will have .900+ OPS hitters in the same position.

 

I have to imagine that, when this year ends, the interleague numbers are going to be heavily slanted to the AL.

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#2 Jimv

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Posted 26 July 2020 - 11:37 PM

 

 

 

NL teams didn't have the time or ability to really compensate for this problem (inexplicably, Puig remains unsigned...) and they're going to be pitting .700-ish OPS players against top AL teams that will have .900+ OPS hitters in the same position.

 

 .

I thought he had agreed to sign with Atlanta, but they put that on hold because he tested positive for COVID? Assuming he recovers in reasonably short order, I assumed--could be wrong--that they would complete the deal.

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#3 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 27 July 2020 - 08:22 AM

I thought he had agreed to sign with Atlanta, but they put that on hold because he tested positive for COVID? Assuming he recovers in reasonably short order, I assumed--could be wrong--that they would complete the deal.

He did. Atlanta cancelled the deal, which I still don’t understand. Puig will likely be back in a couple of weeks, plenty of time to get value out of him.

#4 IndianaTwin

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Posted 27 July 2020 - 08:23 AM

I don't enjoy Mark DeRosa on MLB Network, but he just proposed renaming the stadium in Chicago "Guaranteed Nelson Cruz is Going to Hit a Home Run Rate Field." 

 

 

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#5 ToddlerHarmon

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Posted 27 July 2020 - 08:25 AM

Back of the envelope calc: an average AL team might have a 4-WAR DH, and the NL teams might scrape together 1-WAR DHs each, so a 3-WAR head to head difference for a whole season. But we have about a third of a season, and one-third of those head to head, so maybe you get .3 wins more per AL team. So maybe the AL has 5 more wins league-wide?

 

Of course, that assumes that there aren't more synergistic effects from one more big bat in the lineup, and from having a more-efficiently-constructed roster.