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Is this the offseason to extend Revere?

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#1 Willihammer

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 01:29 PM

After Span's first two seasons, he had for his career a .305 average and an OBP of .391. And in March 2010, the Twins offered him a 5 year, 16.5m contract with a team option for 2015 valued at $9m. As we all know by now, this has proven to be a very team friendly deal, despite the fact that Denard never again produced at his 2008-2009 levels.

So, after 2 seasons watching Revere, Is it time for the Twins to offer him a similar extension?

By comparison, Revere is hitting for a .278 average and getting on base at a .319 clip. His current career BABIP of .308 is a full .040 points lower than Span's was after 2 seasons. Further, Revere is every bit as able to put balls in play, avoid striking out, and leg out infield hits. Revere was 2nd in baseball in infield hits with 58 over the past two seasons (behind Ichiro) and 9th in bunt hits, despite the low BABIP - facts that tells me that Revere's batting average is more likely to go up then down, as his BABIP settles in somewhere in the neighborhood of .320-.330. It also is further evidence that Revere's speed is even more elite than Span's.

Where Revere excels in speed however, he has (so far) lacked the ability to draw walks, and this is again favorable for the Twins from a bargaining standpoint. He would be better suited to the 9 hole, and a 9 hitter's salaray. Yet, Revere's 5.2% walk rate can hardly dip any lower going forward. It is already the 16th lowest walk rate for the last two years.

So, given that Revere is more likely to outperform his career averages going forward, then to underperform them (as Span did), there is doubly a reason to extend him this offseason.

Thoughts?

#2 mike wants wins

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 01:36 PM

Not for me. I have my doubts about his ability to walk enough.

#3 J-Dog Dungan

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 01:41 PM

I think with the departure of Span, they will keep him in CF until Willingham leaves, then shift him to LF where his arm plays better, even if he is better statistically in CF, because they have other players who are just as fast as him who have the arm to play in CF and RF coming up through the minors.

#4 Brad Swanson

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 01:44 PM

I'm not sure there is much need to extend Revere. His stats aren't the type of stats that earn large arbitration figures. Probably best to go year to year with him, especially with all the outfield prospects in the system.

#5 Riverbrian

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 01:48 PM

I like Ben and I wouldn't extend him at this time.

#6 Sssuperdave

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 01:57 PM

Around the same time they did that 5 yr deal with Span they did a simialr deal with Nick Blackburn. One turned into a team-friendly contract, the other - well, you know how that turned out. Locking in the salary for players like this is kind of a high risk/medium reward scenario that I don't think is a particulary good gamble, despite how well it worked with Span. Although the potential reward gets better if you can lock in a couple years of free agency.

#7 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 01:59 PM

No. Hell no. Play him for another year or two and then flip him.

#8 Rosterman

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 02:02 PM

I would wait to see how 2013 goes and further watch the development of others in the minors -- Arcia, Benson, Hicks, Burton, Kepler et al. Revere, if he does prove modestly successful, will end up being a rotating hanger-on, like Juan Pierre. He replaces Span, but doesn't. It's nice to have the speed, but only if you balance it with a stringer 2B/SS and keep more power of OBP in the corner outfields. Right now, the Twins are juggling 4 positions that lack any kind of hitting, especially power, and only one of them showed basepath advancement (the only good thing...at times...for keeping Alexi).
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#9 Willihammer

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 02:10 PM

No. Hell no. Play him for another year or two and then flip him.


After two years then, who is your outfield, with Revere and Willingham gone?

#10 mike wants wins

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 02:17 PM

Arcia, Hicks, whomever else.....

#11 Boom Boom

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 02:20 PM

No reason to extend Revere with Hicks so close. I don't predict any kind of offensive breakthrough from Ben this year anyway.

#12 Twins Twerp

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 02:23 PM

I say yes actually. If we can sign him to an even better deal than Span we do it. We know what we are getting from this guy. His arm is bad and he has no power. He is a three tool guy, but those three tools are very good. He is a very good fielder, a great basestealer, and will hit for average. I think those three things outweight the fact that he doesn't take walks, doesn't throw well, and has no power (he makes Nick Punto look like Mark McGuire). His value will go up the next few season's as he does it consistantly. Next summer, we flip him and his team friendly deal for another prospect or two. Will he bring back a Meyers type pitching prospect, doubtful, but he may bring back something of use and a B- to C prospect.

I am two steps down the road on this one. I think the Twins hold onto Willingham and move Reverre once Hicks and Arcia are up. I am hopeful that Rosario and Sano can stay in the infield, but my instincts tell me that one or both will end up in the OF. That leaves us with even more outfielders than we can handle around 2015ish. Buxton will be ready by 2016 more than likely. Our abundance of OF'ers needs to be turned into a balanced farm system with some power arms. The Span trade was just the beginning, if we work this the right way, we should be able to turn our of'ers into Starting Pitchers, which wins championships.

#13 nicksaviking

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 02:29 PM

I think it might be a decent idea. If his contract is similar to Span's, it still shouldn't be an issue if they want to move him. Revere's numbers in his first couple of seasons look farily similar to Michael Bourn's. Minor league numbers were pretty projectable for Bourn and so far, Revere's minor league numbers are also translating. Bourn flashed some power (for the first time and in a contract year) and is going to walk more but he'll also strike out 3x more than Revere.

Personally, I think Bourn is overrated. A decent .340-.350 OBP and leading the league in steals doesn't automatically make me think he's an all-world free agent, but it seems a bunch of GM's and baseball wonks seem to disagree seeing as he's one of the top free agents this year and was one of the hottest trade targets last year. If there's a chance Revere could get the same value, I'd lock him up.

While I'd be OK with the extension gamble, I think the Twins could wait one more year. Since Revere has no power, I don't think his arb years will be too expensive.

Edited by nicksaviking, 30 November 2012 - 02:31 PM.


#14 Bark's Lounge

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 02:47 PM

I like Ben. He brings a lot of energy to the Twins Lineup and clubhouse - sometimes that can be contagious, and that's a good thing. Fortunately or unfortunately, I do not believe Revere will be starting in the outfield after the 2013 season. Hicks is his superior in talent and Arcia is knocking on the door with his potent bat. I think the world of the guy, but he is merely a stop gap. This is my prediction. No extension.

Edited by Bark's Lounge, 30 November 2012 - 02:51 PM.


#15 Willihammer

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 03:29 PM

Arcia, Hicks, whomever else.....


Why not a 3rd outfielder?

#16 Rosterman

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 03:33 PM

Joe Benson. He still is out there.
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#17 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 03:34 PM

No. Hell no. Play him for another year or two and then flip him.


After two years then, who is your outfield, with Revere and Willingham gone?


Hicks, Arcia, Benson, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler... There's no shortage of Twins outfield prospects.

#18 ThePuck

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 03:37 PM

After Span's first two seasons, he had for his career a .305 average and an OBP of .391. And in March 2010, the Twins offered him a 5 year, 16.5m contract with a team option for 2015 valued at $9m. As we all know by now, this has proven to be a very team friendly deal, despite the fact that Denard never again produced at his 2008-2009 levels.

So, after 2 seasons watching Revere, Is it time for the Twins to offer him a similar extension?

By comparison, Revere is hitting for a .278 average and getting on base at a .319 clip. His current career BABIP of .308 is a full .040 points lower than Span's was after 2 seasons. Further, Revere is every bit as able to put balls in play, avoid striking out, and leg out infield hits. Revere was 2nd in baseball in infield hits with 58 over the past two seasons (behind Ichiro) and 9th in bunt hits, despite the low BABIP - facts that tells me that Revere's batting average is more likely to go up then down, as his BABIP settles in somewhere in the neighborhood of .320-.330. It also is further evidence that Revere's speed is even more elite than Span's.

Where Revere excels in speed however, he has (so far) lacked the ability to draw walks, and this is again favorable for the Twins from a bargaining standpoint. He would be better suited to the 9 hole, and a 9 hitter's salaray. Yet, Revere's 5.2% walk rate can hardly dip any lower going forward. It is already the 16th lowest walk rate for the last two years.

So, given that Revere is more likely to outperform his career averages going forward, then to underperform them (as Span did), there is doubly a reason to extend him this offseason.

Thoughts?


I don't think he's done enough to deserve it myself...

#19 joeboo_22

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 03:43 PM

Does anyone have any numbers what Span would have made without the contract? just through arbitration and so on? It would have been more, but not that terribly much more. On the other hand if his batting average drops to the .260 ish range, you have an over paid, CF with no power whatsoever, and 5 guys in the organization that are better then him. With the type of player Revere is, its not worth the risk, I really didn't think it was worth the risk with Span.

#20 Kwak

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 03:50 PM

NO! Revere is a placeholder. There won't be a bidding war for his services--ever. Old saying: "as time passes the little guys slow down, but the big guys don't get smaller." :shoot: