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Article: Braves Signing Upton Hurts Twins' Trade Options

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#41 cmathewson

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 11:57 AM

Span represents an upgrade in center for about 15 teams in the MLB, given his WAR/$$$ ratio. One other CF moving from one of those teams to another doesn't change anything. Now the Rays rather than the Braves are on the list of potential trading partners. Why the panic button?

#42 cmathewson

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 12:02 PM

Span represents an upgrade in center for about 15 teams in the MLB, given his WAR/$$$ ratio. One other CF moving from one of those teams to another doesn't change anything. Now the Rays rather than the Braves are on the list of potential trading partners. Why the panic button?


By the way, the Rays are the better trading partner, as they are rumored to be shopping both Shields and Hellickson.

#43 PseudoSABR

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 12:14 PM

Span represents an upgrade in center for about 15 teams in the MLB, given his WAR/$$$ ratio. One other CF moving from one of those teams to another doesn't change anything. Now the Rays rather than the Braves are on the list of potential trading partners. Why the panic button?


By the way, the Rays are the better trading partner, as they are rumored to be shopping both Shields and Hellickson.

They also have Jennings, who can both play CF and bat leadoff if they believe he will develop. So I'm not sure if TB is really better trading partners.

#44 Seth Stohs

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 12:34 PM

Upton was going to be the first guy to sign, and once that happened, everyone had to re-adjust. As many have said, there are still teams that could be interested in Span. My guess is that Bourn will need to sign first. Also, the Braves are still a possibility for both Span and Willingham since they're planning to move Martin Prado into 3B from left field.

#45 Twins Twerp

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 12:44 PM

If Bourn doesn't sign in Washington, could Span be in their crosshairs. I would think the Nationals would bolster the best outfield in baseball with Span, Werth, something called Bryce Harper. Yikes.

I see the Reds as a legit team to deal with. If we could pull away a pitchin prospect and a SS I would be giddy with excitement. Pick one of: Cingrini(LH), Stephenson, or Corcino...and pair him with: Cozart, Hamilton, or Gregorius. Twins could throw in someone like Joe Benson or some other OF prospect not named Arcia, Hicks, or Buxton (or Rosario who may still end up in the OF).

Boom!!! Deal done son

#46 B Richard

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 12:56 PM

Panic? No.

The Bravos were the most appealing trade partner, but certainly not the only one capable of providing what the Twins are after. I know it's been pointed out already, but it's important to remember that one fewer CF on the open market should increase Span's relative value. Other teams may start to become more desperate- something that benefits the Twins greatly.

#47 ThePuck

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 01:35 PM

How does Upton deserve 15M a year...seriously? He's gotten steadily worse in CF, his OBP was sub .300 last year, he hasn't reached a .250 BA in 5 years.

Yeah, he's averaged 25Hr over the last two years and stolen some bases, but really? 15M a year?

WOW!

#48 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 02:02 PM

How does Upton deserve 15M a year...seriously? He's gotten steadily worse in CF, his OBP was sub .300 last year, he hasn't reached a .250 BA in 5 years.

Yeah, he's averaged 25Hr over the last two years and stolen some bases, but really? 15M a year?

WOW!


Joe Mauer at $23m per year doesn't look so bad when teams are giving $15m to 2.5 WAR players.

#49 SeanS7921

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 02:02 PM

Upton is a great deal for the Braves. They get his Prime years 28-32 he hit 28 HRS and stold 31 bases while playing solid defense. He didn't take pitches last year but has in the past. If that OBP goes back up very good performer.
I don't get how the Braves needed LOW salary though? 15 million isn't bad for Upton but it's still a lot of money. They wanted Span and Willingham together? That's the only way it's even close to 15 million they just shelled out and the years are off on that.
I doubt Span has that much value. They guy is always hurt and has no power. Solid year last year but again he was hurt. The two years before that big time question marks. Obviously what's being offered for him isn't that great at this point.

#50 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 02:10 PM

Upton is a great deal for the Braves. They get his Prime years 28-32 he hit 28 HRS and stold 31 bases while playing solid defense. He didn't take pitches last year but has in the past. If that OBP goes back up very good performer.
I don't get how the Braves needed LOW salary though? 15 million isn't bad for Upton but it's still a lot of money. They wanted Span and Willingham together? That's the only way it's even close to 15 million they just shelled out and the years are off on that.
I doubt Span has that much value. They guy is always hurt and has no power. Solid year last year but again he was hurt. The two years before that big time question marks. Obviously what's being offered for him isn't that great at this point.


Upton isn't a bad deal by any means. It's not a particularly good deal, either. He could rebound or he could continue to fade into his 30s. He doesn't get on base and that's a HUGE checkmark against him going forward.

Like many others, you're drastically underrating Span. The dude plays good defense at a premium position and gets on base 36% of the time. His lowest WAR in the past five years is 1.5 with most seasons bouncing between a 2.5 and 4+ WAR. That's a damned good player, doubly so if you have him locked up for three more seasons at a combined price of $20m (ie. 1 1/2 years of BJ Upton's new contract).

Upton has 4000 PAs and a 13.6 WAR. Denard has 2700 PAs and a 16.5 WAR.

edit: Interesting that FanGraphs doesn't like Span as much as BBRef while it loooooves Upton. Upton's career WAR is 23 and Span's 16 according to FG.

Either way, the two are comparable players (they just go about getting there very differently), only Span is less than half the price.

#51 darin617

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 03:16 PM

The Braves should still have interest in Span. They still lack a leadoff hitter and could put him in LF.

#52 biggentleben

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 03:19 PM

The Braves should still have interest in Span. They still lack a leadoff hitter and could put him in LF.


Upton would move to left, and they still have interest, but the Twins have reportedly been asking for Mike Minor or Kris Medlen.

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#53 Mike Sixel

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 03:19 PM

Given their frugality, and that they just added 15million to their payroll, do you all really think they will add Span?

#54 biggentleben

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 04:22 PM

Given their frugality, and that they just added 15million to their payroll, do you all really think they will add Span?


Not now that he was traded for a minor league pitcher, but the Braves have $25-35M to play with.

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