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Neal: Twins interested in bringing Liriano back

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#41 Nick Nelson

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 12:43 PM

Here are Liriano's ERA's for the last 4 years: 5.80, 3.62, 5.09, 5.34. Hoping for "2010 Liriano" to happen again is like the people who expect Mauer to hit .360 with 29 HR's every year - it isn't going to happen. Moreover, he actually got slightly WORSE after going to Chicago, despite people's perceptions of that move.

If we're talking about acquiring a back-of-the-rotation starter who will leave the Twins flexibility to add more pieces, you're not going to do much better. Scott Feldman's ERAs over the last 6 years: 5.09, 3.94 (32 IP), 5.48, 4.08, 5.29, 5.77. And he just got $6M.

I'm obviously aware of Liriano's control problems and clearly he's not a safe bet but to rebound, but at that money you're not going to get a safe bet. Expectations need to be adjusted. Frankie still has more upside than just about anyone you're likely to find in his price range. I'd also add that his xFIP numbers over the time span you mentioned are 4.48, 2.95, 4.52 and 4.14, so with decent defensive support and neutral luck he should be expected to be no worse than average even if the control issues linger.

And while I don't mean to speak for Gleeman, I strongly doubt he would build a case entirely around the ERA statistic.

#42 AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 01:05 PM

[quote name='Right, and let us not forget that this guy got himself dropped out of the rotation pretty quickly last year, and not just any rotation - it was possibly the worst rotation in baseball.[/QUOTE']

exactly. He got demoted from the MLBs worst rotation. Time to just cut the chord with Liriano. I dont even want to hear his name unless he signs with another team and continues to implode.

#43 StormJH1

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 01:37 PM

Here are Liriano's ERA's for the last 4 years: 5.80, 3.62, 5.09, 5.34. Hoping for "2010 Liriano" to happen again is like the people who expect Mauer to hit .360 with 29 HR's every year - it isn't going to happen. Moreover, he actually got slightly WORSE after going to Chicago, despite people's perceptions of that move.

If we're talking about acquiring a back-of-the-rotation starter who will leave the Twins flexibility to add more pieces, you're not going to do much better. Scott Feldman's ERAs over the last 6 years: 5.09, 3.94 (32 IP), 5.48, 4.08, 5.29, 5.77. And he just got $6M.

I'm obviously aware of Liriano's control problems and clearly he's not a safe bet but to rebound, but at that money you're not going to get a safe bet. Expectations need to be adjusted. Frankie still has more upside than just about anyone you're likely to find in his price range. I'd also add that his xFIP numbers over the time span you mentioned are 4.48, 2.95, 4.52 and 4.14, so with decent defensive support and neutral luck he should be expected to be no worse than average even if the control issues linger.

And while I don't mean to speak for Gleeman, I strongly doubt he would build a case entirely around the ERA statistic.

No, Aaron would not build an argument around ERA (he got on Bonnes for doing that in a recent podcast). I'm wasn't necessarily doing that either, but I'm not a hardcore stat guy, and I (like John) don't think that ERA is entirely worthless. I'm fairly confident that there's any number of metrics that could used to quantify the fact that Liriano was not a very good pitcher last year. Or 2011. Or 2009.

Until we know what type of deal Liriano gets, it's premature to say what his price range is. The assumption seems to be that he takes 1 or 2 years at $5, 6, or 7 million per. If Jeremy Guthrie can get a 3-year deal, couldn't Liriano also? If it takes a commitment of $25 million to sign him, or maybe even $20 million, sorry, but I'm out.

I won't hate it if Liriano comes back. I have nothing against him personally, and there is enough upside to think that he could help us for portions of the season, particularly in our desperate state. But given a choice between a somewhat-risky multi-year deal for Baker, or a multi-year deal for Liriano, I'd honestly prefer Baker. Also, I have serious doubts that Liriano would want to put himself back in Minnesota, but we'll have to see.

#44 h2oface

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 02:33 PM

RA Dickey didn't click until his mid thirties. liriano will shine again. he is high risk but very high reward, but it is yet to be seen if he can be had on the cheap. and still in his 20's. anderson and gardenhire don't seem to be the ones to help him. maybe cuellar? instead, we will probably see him pitching his second no hitter against the twins.

#45 Fatt Crapps

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 02:41 PM

RA Dickey didn't click until his mid thirties. liriano will shine again.


Lefty knuckleball?

#46 DaveW

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 03:12 PM

[quote name='StormJH1'][quote name='Nick Nelson'][quote name='StormJH1']Here are Liriano's ERA's for the last 4 years: 5.80, 3.62, 5.09, 5.34. Hoping for "2010 Liriano" to happen again is like the people who expect Mauer to hit .360 with 29 HR's every year - it isn't going to happen. Moreover, he actually got slightly WORSE after going to Chicago, despite people's perceptions of that move.[/QUOTE]
If we're talking about acquiring a back-of-the-rotation starter who will leave the Twins flexibility to add more pieces, you're not going to do much better. Scott Feldman's ERAs over the last 6 years: 5.09, 3.94 (32 IP), 5.48, 4.08, 5.29, 5.77. And he just got $6M.

I'm obviously aware of Liriano's control problems and clearly he's not a safe bet but to rebound, but at that money you're not going to get a safe bet. Expectations need to be adjusted. Frankie still has more upside than just about anyone you're likely to find in his price range. I'd also add that his xFIP numbers over the time span you mentioned are 4.48, 2.95, 4.52 and 4.14, so with decent defensive support and neutral luck he should be expected to be no worse than average even if the control issues linger.

And while I don't mean to speak for Gleeman, I strongly doubt he would build a case entirely around the ERA statistic.[/QUOTE]
No, Aaron would not build an argument around ERA (he got on Bonnes for doing that in a recent podcast). I'm wasn't necessarily doing that either, but I'm not a hardcore stat guy, and I (like John) don't think that ERA is entirely worthless. I'm fairly confident that there's any number of metrics that could used to quantify the fact that Liriano was not a very good pitcher last year. Or 2011. Or 2009.

Until we know what type of deal Liriano gets, it's premature to say what his price range is. The assumption seems to be that he takes 1 or 2 years at $5, 6, or 7 million per. If Jeremy Guthrie can get a 3-year deal, couldn't Liriano also? If it takes a commitment of $25 million to sign him, or maybe even $20 million, sorry, but I'm out.

I won't hate it if Liriano comes back. I have nothing against him personally, and there is enough upside to think that he could help us for portions of the season, particularly in our desperate state. But given a choice between a somewhat-risky multi-year deal for Baker, or a multi-year deal for Liriano, I'd honestly prefer Baker. Also, I have serious doubts that Liriano would want to put himself back in Minnesota, but we'll have to see.[/QUOTE]

Nobody is claiming we should run out and give Liriano 20 million dollars, everything I have seen says 1 year 4-5 mil.

I'd consider giving him a 1 year 5.5 mil deal with a 6 mil team option.

#47 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 03:17 PM

There's a non zero chance Liriano is the best FA pitcher signed this winter. Count me in. Get SOMEthing done, JR.

#48 Danchat

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 03:25 PM

Is now a good time to jump off the ship? I mean....captain TR believes the ship is still floating, however, clearly, half the boat is underwater.
I say we 're-build' and make a life raft, or we can believe the illusion we aren't sinking.
In all seriousness, I think Liriano will follow Drew Butera, the hispanic pitcher whisperer. If he can get on a team. (he's not going to be tendered, right?)

#49 messed up

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 03:53 PM

[quote name='AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS'][quote name='Right, and let us not forget that this guy got himself dropped out of the rotation pretty quickly last year, and not just any rotation - it was possibly the worst rotation in baseball.[/QUOTE']

exactly. He got demoted from the MLBs worst rotation. Time to just cut the chord with Liriano. I dont even want to hear his name unless he signs with another team and continues to implode.[/QUOTE]

Ditto. It sounds like some of you are content with another 90+ loss season.

#50 AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 04:01 PM

[quote name='messed up'][quote name='AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS'][quote name='Right, and let us not forget that this guy got himself dropped out of the rotation pretty quickly last year, and not just any rotation - it was possibly the worst rotation in baseball.[/QUOTE']

exactly. He got demoted from the MLBs worst rotation. Time to just cut the chord with Liriano. I dont even want to hear his name unless he signs with another team and continues to implode.[/QUOTE]

Ditto. It sounds like some of you are content with another 90+ loss season.[/QUOTE]

Finally someone who agrees. I dont get why this thread is still going! Whoever wants Liriano is crazy.

#51 TheLeviathan

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 04:06 PM

I'm fairly confident that there's any number of metrics that could used to quantify the fact that Liriano was not a very good pitcher last year. Or 2011. Or 2009.


Exactly, well said. Anyone who wants to focus on his "brilliance" is doing nothing more than cherry-picking. Obviously this team has worse options to gamble on if the price is right, but can we please, please stop this cave-man analysis of Liriano being an ace? He's a guy who has flashed talent amid a sea of putridity the last four years. That's what he is...quit polishing the turd, you don't have to. Even turds can find innings with this team's pitching, let's save the polish for someone who actually earned it.

#52 Nick Nelson

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 04:44 PM

Anyone who wants to focus on his "brilliance" is doing nothing more than cherry-picking. Obviously this team has worse options to gamble on if the price is right, but can we please, please stop this cave-man analysis of Liriano being an ace?

No one is doing that. The extremes on this thread lean in the other direction. Liriano has been one of the best strikeout pitchers in the league over the past few years, and that is a fact that some of us feel is worth gambling on (at the right price) compared to the other no-upside trash that is likely to be available in that range. No need to continue with your typical hyperbole and exaggeration.

#53 TheLeviathan

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 04:56 PM

No one is doing that. The extremes on this thread lean in the other direction. Liriano has been one of the best strikeout pitchers in the league over the past few years, and that is a fact that some of us feel is worth gambling on (at the right price) compared to the other no-upside trash that is likely to be available in that range. No need to continue with your typical hyperbole and exaggeration.


I'm sorry, should I quote you? That's exactly what you're doing and you got called out for it quite effectively by another poster. It's perfectly reasonable to dismiss Liriano - he's been one of hte worst starters in the AL for 3 out of 4 years. No one is "forgetting" about his brief stints of brilliance, it's just not important when by and large he's not just bad, he's terrible. So for you to waltz in and accuse others of "forgetting" his brilliance to criticize their feelings about him is pretty damn stupid. You can lob insults at me about it if it makes you feel better, but it doesn't make it less true.

Strikeouts are great - they are usually a great indicator of a pitcher's ability to control a game. Unfortunately, they are not nearly as important as the results put on the board and Liriano's have been consistently awful for most of the last four years. If anyone is "forgetting" anything, it's on your end. People have every right to be generally negative about this guy - his performance has earned it. That doesn't need to stop you from suggesting he's a turd worth buying for the right price, but your tact to do so was woefully pathetic.

Edited by TheLeviathan, 28 November 2012 - 04:59 PM.


#54 one_eyed_jack

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 05:41 PM

At a reasonable 1-year deal, it's worth a shot. I was as frustrated as anyone with him last year, but when you're in the situation the Twins are in, needing not just 1 starter but 3 or 4, you've got to at least consider him.

If he doesn't work out, deal him for whatever you can get at the deadline or move him to the bullpen.

#55 AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 06:13 PM

[QUOTE=If he doesn't work out, deal him for whatever you can get at the deadline or move him to the bullpen.[/QUOTE]

Okay we did that last year. He hasnt worked out well for us, not only did he do terrible for us but the white sox as well, this guy is a headcase. Not worth any money at all!

#56 LaBombo

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 06:53 PM

Ryan knows they're not going to contend. His short-term goal is to put a more respectable team on the field to help stop the terrible slide in attendance. I'm not sure how Ryan helps achieve that goal by bringing back a guy who was viewed by most fans as an abject failure the past two seasons.

In fact, it seems like a bit of a PR blunder to admit they're seriously thinking about.it. Just signals to the public that they've given up on 2013 already and are just looking for warm bodies to fill the holes.

#57 ashburyjohn

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 07:02 PM

Maybe they have interest in him as a SS? LOL


You put Butera in the rotation and let Frankie be the 3rd catcher.

#58 Top Gun

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 07:04 PM

FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal reports that B.J Upton's deal with the Braves is for five years and $75.25 million.

The contract will be made official once Upton passes a physical, and the 28-year-old outfielder will be introduced at a press conference on Thursday afternoon at Turner Field. Upton also drew serious interest this offseason from the Phillies, Nationals, Giants and Rangers, but the Braves' final offer beat them all. It should be a good fit, and Upton should remain a top fantasy outfielder.
Related: Braves

Source: Ken Rosenthal on Twitter

#59 Nick Nelson

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 07:10 PM

I'm sorry, should I quote you? That's exactly what you're doing and you got called out for it quite effectively by another poster.


Sure, quote me. How about the part where I referred to Liriano as a back-of-the-rotation starter and not a safe bet? Just because you want to jump to one extreme doesn't mean you need to cast me in the other. I recognize that Liriano has performed badly overall in the last two seasons. There's a perfectly good chance he will do so again this year, as is the case with Feldman, Baker, or any other pitcher we're categorizing here.

But I think it is folly to overlook the fact that Liriano has had extended stretches in each of the past three seasons where he has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the league. We're talking two-month stretches. There aren't many bad pitchers capable of repeatedly doing that, and while you're completely correct in stating that his hot streaks have been outweighed by his struggles, the thought of him maintaining a groove like that for most of a season is not as unfathomable as you make it seem. He did so in 2010, and he's still only 29.

Why has Liriano been allowed to throw 620 innings over the last four years despite being "one of the worst starters in the AL," and why will he get paid this offseason? Because anyone can see that he's got talent. And you bet on talent, especially when you have an extraordinary shortage of it.

#60 Willihammer

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 07:10 PM

If you want to look at ERA, both Peavy and AJ Burnett were worse than Liriano in 2011, and 2010. Some guys rebound every year.

Feldman, Santana, Wolf, Francis, Lowe - all are coming off worse seasons that Liriano in terms of ERA. So a 4-5m flyer on Liriano would not be out of line from what the market is shaping up to be for these guys.