Posted 28 November 2012 - 03:12 PM
[quote name='StormJH1'][quote name='Nick Nelson'][quote name='StormJH1']Here are Liriano's ERA's for the last 4 years: 5.80, 3.62, 5.09, 5.34. Hoping for "2010 Liriano" to happen again is like the people who expect Mauer to hit .360 with 29 HR's every year - it isn't going to happen. Moreover, he actually got slightly WORSE after going to Chicago, despite people's perceptions of that move.[/QUOTE]
If we're talking about acquiring a back-of-the-rotation starter who will leave the Twins flexibility to add more pieces, you're not going to do much better. Scott Feldman's ERAs over the last 6 years: 5.09, 3.94 (32 IP), 5.48, 4.08, 5.29, 5.77. And he just got $6M.
I'm obviously aware of Liriano's control problems and clearly he's not a safe bet but to rebound, but at that money you're not going to get a safe bet. Expectations need to be adjusted. Frankie still has more upside than just about anyone you're likely to find in his price range. I'd also add that his xFIP numbers over the time span you mentioned are 4.48, 2.95, 4.52 and 4.14, so with decent defensive support and neutral luck he should be expected to be no worse than average even if the control issues linger.
And while I don't mean to speak for Gleeman, I strongly doubt he would build a case entirely around the ERA statistic.[/QUOTE]
No, Aaron would not build an argument around ERA (he got on Bonnes for doing that in a recent podcast). I'm wasn't necessarily doing that either, but I'm not a hardcore stat guy, and I (like John) don't think that ERA is entirely worthless. I'm fairly confident that there's any number of metrics that could used to quantify the fact that Liriano was not a very good pitcher last year. Or 2011. Or 2009.
Until we know what type of deal Liriano gets, it's premature to say what his price range is. The assumption seems to be that he takes 1 or 2 years at $5, 6, or 7 million per. If Jeremy Guthrie can get a 3-year deal, couldn't Liriano also? If it takes a commitment of $25 million to sign him, or maybe even $20 million, sorry, but I'm out.
I won't hate it if Liriano comes back. I have nothing against him personally, and there is enough upside to think that he could help us for portions of the season, particularly in our desperate state. But given a choice between a somewhat-risky multi-year deal for Baker, or a multi-year deal for Liriano, I'd honestly prefer Baker. Also, I have serious doubts that Liriano would want to put himself back in Minnesota, but we'll have to see.[/QUOTE]
Nobody is claiming we should run out and give Liriano 20 million dollars, everything I have seen says 1 year 4-5 mil.
I'd consider giving him a 1 year 5.5 mil deal with a 6 mil team option.