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An Aggressive Offseason with a 2014 Outlook

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#1 JP3700

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 04:09 AM

With our Twins not making any significant moves yet, along with my increased impatience, I decided to take another shot at an offseason blueprint.

Transactions:

Trade Denard Span, Jamey Carroll and $2 million cash for Tony Cingrani and Didi Gregorius

Sign Anibal Sanchez to a five year, $75 million contract. Includes a sixth year club option of $15 million with a $5 million buyout.

Sign Brandon McCarthy to a two year, $22 million contract. Includes a third year vesting option of $14 million. The option vests if McCarthy pitches 320 innings over the first 2 seasons.

The Roster (with salaries):

Starting Lineup:
CF Ben Revere Min
C Joe Mauer $23M
LF Josh Willingham $7M
1B Justin Morneau $14M
DH Ryan Doumit $3.5M
RF Chris Parmelee Min
3B Trevor Plouffe Min
SS Didi Gregorius Min
2B Brian Dozier Min

Bench:
OF Darin Mastroianni Min
IF Eduardo Escobar Min
C/LF Chris Herrmann Min
Bench Bat Min

Rotation:
Anibal Sanchez $15M
Brandon McCarthy $11M
Scott Diamond Min
Kyle Gibson Min
Liam Hendriks Min

Bullpen:
Glen Perkins $2.5M
Jared Burton $2M
Brian Duensing $1.25M
Casey Fien Min
Tyler Robertson Min
Alex Burnett Min
Josh Roenicke Min

$52M Position Players
$27.5M Starting Rotation
$7.75M Bullpen
$7.75M Blackburn, Capps & Trade
$95M Total

The offense projects to be between average to slightly below average. With the additions of Sanchez, McCarthy and Gibson to the rotation, if the team has average luck, I would project 70-75 wins. With good luck, I would say the team could hover around .500. With extraordinary luck (2012 Orioles), the team could push for a playoff spot.

2014 outlook:

$62.25M in guaranteed contracts

3 arbitration eligible players: Plouffe, Revere and Duensing

Possible Trade Chips: McCarthy, Willingham, Doumit, Revere

Possible Prospect Arrivals:
Position Players - Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Nate Roberts, Joe Benson, Daniel Santana, Josmil Pinto
Starting Pitchers - Tony Cingrani, B.J. Hermsen, Pedro Hernandez

If we add up the guaranteed contracts, projected arbitration salaries, and assume the Twins have 10-12 players on the opening day roster making the league minimum, that would bring the payroll to right around $75 million. With the additional national TV revenue, I project a 2014 payroll of $105 million at a minimum. That would leave at least $30 million to fill 4-6 roster spots. That's a lot of flexibility for trades and free agency.

What say you?

#2 old nurse

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 05:51 AM

Aggressive to get to 70-75 wins? That would also be saying that your free agents were busts.

#3 mike wants wins

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 08:28 AM

As a plan to set up 2014 I like it.

#4 beckmt

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 09:01 AM

Does not address issues or defense. Offense seems to project as average to way below average. Pitching is improved, but might not come close to offsetting offense decline if main players do not have seasons like last year and new players (Parmalee etc) are busts. Hope Parmalee can be an average to slightly above average major league hitter, but not counting on it. Then if we don't extend Morneau(who wants to be here), we would be waiting for Sano or Vargas to appear and produce at a major league level. That could be 2014 -2015 at the earliest.
This also assumes that other major league clubs will not spend some or all of the $25 mil increase in revenue, making all of the players more expensive.
On this line I would rather have Marcum and Drew rather that spend the money on Sanchez, and I might be able to get them cheaper than Sanchez.
Also would prefer to trade Span to the Braves or Rays for pitching, depending on the losers for the B.J Upton sweepstakes or in Tampa's case sent Parmalee along with Span to the Rays and possibly get Shields back who is a much better option than Sanchez.

#5 gunnarthor

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 09:28 AM

Generally, I like it. I do think we need to trade Span and I've been a big fan of sending him to the Reds for pitching and a shortstop but if we trade him to Atlanta or Rays for pitching, that's ok with me. I don't think Sanchez comes for 75m, I think he'll get the 90 he's asking for but I like the idea. Marcum is another guy to go after.

#6 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 12:11 PM

Does not address issues or defense. Offense seems to project as average to way below average. Pitching is improved, but might not come close to offsetting offense decline if main players do not have seasons like last year and new players (Parmalee etc) are busts. Hope Parmalee can be an average to slightly above average major league hitter, but not counting on it. Then if we don't extend Morneau(who wants to be here), we would be waiting for Sano or Vargas to appear and produce at a major league level. That could be 2014 -2015 at the earliest.


Or Arcia. Or Hicks.

The Twins have a steady stream of outfielders going through the system. They're going to have to trade something of value to get something of value in return. And it's a hell of a lot easier to find OF help than pitching, especially considering the Twins' minor league system, which has 3-4 outfielders that project to being Major League regulars and one pitcher who projects to be an average-to-above-average starter (still too early to rely on Berrios for anything).

#7 JP3700

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 02:04 PM

[quote name='old nurse']Aggressive to get to 70-75 wins? That would also be saying that your free agents were busts.[/QUOTE]

Just tempering expectations. It would be an increase of 4-9 wins. There's room to be better with some good luck, improvement from some of the young players, and minimal injuries.

[quote name='mike wants wins']As a plan to set up 2014 I like it.[/QUOTE]

It's definitely aimed more towards 2014, while still being competitive in 2013.

[quote name='beckmt']Does not address issues or defense. Offense seems to project as average to way below average. Pitching is improved, but might not come close to offsetting offense decline if main players do not have seasons like last year and new players (Parmalee etc) are busts. Hope Parmalee can be an average to slightly above average major league hitter, but not counting on it. Then if we don't extend Morneau(who wants to be here), we would be waiting for Sano or Vargas to appear and produce at a major league level. That could be 2014 -2015 at the earliest.
This also assumes that other major league clubs will not spend some or all of the $25 mil increase in revenue, making all of the players more expensive.[/QUOTE]

I agree the defense projects to be bad but Mastroianni and Escobar would be great defensive subs when the team has a lead.
I actually don't think anyone played too far out of their norm on offense last year. Our main guys just weren't ravaged with injuries, although the pitching staff made up for that. That would be more of my concern, but injuries are impossible to predict.
The reason why I added the outlook is I wanted to show the flexibility going into 2014. With Sanchez and McCarthy at the top of the rotation, young pitchers like Gibson, Diamond, Cingrani, Hendriks, Hermsen and Hernandez also in the mix, we have a lot of wiggle room and some cash to spend.
Using the example of Parm being a bust, as Brock mentioned, hopefully Arcia or Hicks steps up and takes over RF. Then we could move Mauer to 1B and maybe go after a Carlos Ruiz. Doumit would still be under contract and could split time with Herrmann and/or Pinto. There would be options. It could also be Plouffe, Dozier or Gregorius that are busts, maybe even all the above, but we could see what we have with these young players, then address it in 2014.

#8 beckmt

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 02:52 PM

That is why I would package Parmalee with Span to bring back a bigger pitching return. I would hope that one of Hicks/Arcia is ready for the major leagues now and would be willing to accept that struggle rather than the status quo. I just feel that 2 pitchers of top/middle quality(like suggested) will turn out to be more than the Twins are willing to pay unless they send the payroll north of $100 mil. Sorry to be negitive, but need to find better upgrades and long term that means trading 1 - 2 outfielders this winter, and maybe a decrease in wins if the offense does not come through next year.

#9 JP3700

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 04:22 PM

That is why I would package Parmalee with Span to bring back a bigger pitching return. I would hope that one of Hicks/Arcia is ready for the major leagues now and would be willing to accept that struggle rather than the status quo. I just feel that 2 pitchers of top/middle quality(like suggested) will turn out to be more than the Twins are willing to pay unless they send the payroll north of $100 mil. Sorry to be negitive, but need to find better upgrades and long term that means trading 1 - 2 outfielders this winter, and maybe a decrease in wins if the offense does not come through next year.


Other than perhaps the Rays, I don't see a fit for Parmelee in a package with Span. Even in that scenario, Parm is coming off a season where he had a sub .700 OPS, and I'm sure the Rays will point that out. I just don't see him significantly increasing the value of a trade at this point.
Let's even say Span + Parmelee could retrieve Shields. Doesn't McCarthy, Parmelee, Cingrani and Gregorius sound better than Shields on his own?

#10 Kwak

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 05:09 PM

Sanibel will get a better offer than that elsewhere. The Twins would need to make a "blow-away" offer to induce him to sign--and based on experience and Ryan's comment about this year's free agent market--I am certain that offer won't be made. I also don't think Minnesota will be trading to get a SS prospect. If a prospect is the desired end result--he will be a pitcher. Ryan has pretty much handed the SS job to Florimon.
Recall Ryan's comment about "three new pitchers", he really walked far out on a skinny branch, so I am convinced he won't be looking at other positions until those three guys materialize.

#11 JP3700

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 05:55 PM

Sanibel will get a better offer than that elsewhere. The Twins would need to make a "blow-away" offer to induce him to sign--and based on experience and Ryan's comment about this year's free agent market--I am certain that offer won't be made. I also don't think Minnesota will be trading to get a SS prospect. If a prospect is the desired end result--he will be a pitcher. Ryan has pretty much handed the SS job to Florimon.
Recall Ryan's comment about "three new pitchers", he really walked far out on a skinny branch, so I am convinced he won't be looking at other positions until those three guys materialize.


It's really tough to predict the type of contract a player will get, but considering his own demands are 6 years, $90 million, I would say that's most likely the ceiling to what he'll receive. I don't see the benefit of coming out and saying it, if he expected more. I even read an article saying 4 years, $68 million today, so no one really knows. $80 million guaranteed over 5 years seems reasonable, along with that possible 6th year for the $90 million he wants. As for the trade, Cingrani is the center piece, not Gregorius. I've read Span for the two, straight up, but I think Carroll at $1.75 million to help replace the loss of Rolen, Cairo and Valdez would balance the trade.

Do I think it's more likely Ryan goes after Blanton, Myers and Feldman as his three pitchers? Sure, I am a Twins fan.. :). But, I wanted to paint a picture why this route would make better sense, obviously in my own opinion.

#12 beckmt

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 06:11 PM

I think TR knows he needs a front line pitcher. I am hoping for Marcum, a frontline pitcher in exchange for Span, either with the Rays, Braves, or Seattle. Then the other needs can be addressed. Still hoping for Stephen Drew here, but do not think it is likely, but it could be good.

#13 Top Gun

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 10:02 PM

Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star reports that the Royals have had discussions about trading top prospect Wil Myers for either James Shields or Jon Lester.

The Royals have already added Ervin Santana via trade this offseason from the Angels and recently signed Jeremy Guthrie to a three-year contract, but they want a true front-line starter and are apparently willing to deal one of the most promising young hitters in the game in order to acquire one. Myers, 21, batted .314/.387/.600 with 37 home runs and 109 RBI in 134 games this past season between the Double-A and Triple-A levels

#14 goliath

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 11:26 PM

Looking toward 2014 and 2015, WWBBD, What would Billy Beane do? Not that I think he's the greatest GM, but he does like to take risks. If 2013 is felt to be a lost year, I think he would blow up this team, and trade Span, Morneau and Willingham for primarily pitching.

Beane also likes to make unorthodox trades like trading his players of highest value even if he creates a possible team weakness . I could see Beane trading Perkins and Diamond for middle infielders and low minors pitching prospects. Perkins has little value to another 90 loss Twins team, but like Bailey for the A's could bring back a decent return. Diamond is no Gio Gonzales or Trevor Cahill, but his value may never be higher and everyone needs pitching. Toronto would have been a good trading partner (for one of their MI's) before their big trade, because he's from the area.
(The opinions expressed are not mine, but my imaginary Billy Beane)

#15 glunn

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Posted 27 November 2012 - 12:21 AM

Looking toward 2014 and 2015, WWBBD, What would Billy Beane do? Not that I think he's the greatest GM, but he does like to take risks. If 2013 is felt to be a lost year, I think he would blow up this team, and trade Span, Morneau and Willingham for primarily pitching.

Beane also likes to make unorthodox trades like trading his players of highest value even if he creates a possible team weakness . I could see Beane trading Perkins and Diamond for middle infielders and low minors pitching prospects. Perkins has little value to another 90 loss Twins team, but like Bailey for the A's could bring back a decent return. Diamond is no Gio Gonzales or Trevor Cahill, but his value may never be higher and everyone needs pitching. Toronto would have been a good trading partner (for one of their MI's) before their big trade, because he's from the area.
(The opinions expressed are not mine, but my imaginary Billy Beane)


This would be painful in the short run, but would have a chance of making the Twins very good in the long run. But there would also be a risk that the young pitching prospects may never pay off. Interesting to think about.