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Boston Globe Cafardo: Pavano Could Sign Minor League Deal
Posted 18 November 2012 - 09:17 AM
Posted 18 November 2012 - 09:52 AM
This year, the Twins totally misdiagnosed his injury, so I don' t know what you can take from it. But in 2010 and 2011 he threw 443 innings. His ERA was about 4 and so was his xFIP and FIP. And the injury was a bone bruise, not something ligament related.
Frankly, if you can get that guy on a minor league deal, not only do you do it, but there is not excuse for building a very good rotation strictly from the free agent market. All that's required is patience.
Posted 18 November 2012 - 10:35 AM
Citing 2010-2011 stats really doesn't project how a pitcher declines from age 34 to 37. The decrease in average fastball should be a concern. There was a decrease from 2010 to 2011. Corresponding his xFIP increased from 3.86 to 4.14. Last year, a huge drop occurred. How can any team know that all of the drop was due to the injury? How much should his age factor into the decision?
The second concern is that some pitchers are inning eaters. Is there any basis where it would be reasonable to project that Pavano will be more likely to stay healthy all of 2013 than another pitcher. Is there a mathematical way to use data that would indicate a projection of inning eating?
Maybe it is reasonable to project Pavano with 200 innings of 4.50 ERA. That would look good relative to Blackburn. Even so, wouldn't the Twins be better off risking those inning and starts with a younger pitcher? A pitcher with a chane to be part if the future solution.
Look at the decisions the Twins made in 1997 and 1998. They signed old guys like Tewksbury and Morgan. They weren't terrible. They also continued the cycle of mediocrity. In 1999 and 2000, they stopped doing that. They gave the innings to younger players. They suffered through a 63 win season in 1999. A 21 year old Santana had an ERA over 6 in 2000. In 1998 those innings would have gone to a decline phase pitcher like Greg Swindell. Swindell was reasonably successful. He was not part of the solution. Santana on the other hand...
Posted 18 November 2012 - 10:50 AM
Doogie Tweet in response to if the Twins will offer him a minor league deal: If anything, yes. No shot the #MNTwins, or anyone else will give him a major league offer.
Edited by Jeremy Nygaard, 18 November 2012 - 11:06 AM.
Posted 18 November 2012 - 12:56 PM
I thought last summer that they would resign Pav, so till he signs somewhere else....I think he's in teams plans
Posted 19 November 2012 - 10:29 AM
But I'd rather see the team move on entirely.
Posted 19 November 2012 - 12:02 PM
A healthy Pavano makes the rotation better. I would take 200 ip with a 4.50 era in the rotation at this point, especially in the 4/5 hole. Yes we need to sign pitching, but we are not going to sign 4 aces. Think reality people.
Posted 19 November 2012 - 08:11 PM
Posted 19 November 2012 - 09:05 PM
The LAST thing we need is another #5-6 starter to go alon with DeVries, Walters, Deduno, Blackburn....who did I miss?
We have ONE #3-4 starter in Diamond. We have maybe...maybe a couple others, in Hendriks and Gibson, that MIGHT contribute at #4-5 levels this year.
We need two #2-3 starters, minmum. We can afford them, and we have trade chips. Anything short of that is failure, and everything outside of that is a waste of time. No more damn #4-5-6 guys. Jeez.
Posted 19 November 2012 - 09:34 PM