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5 Phillies test postive for COVID-19, they and 3 other teams shut down camps

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#81 Sconnie

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Posted 25 June 2020 - 04:39 PM

Which is again attributed to an increase in testing. If the cases were increasing due to an outbreak then the deaths would follow at the same rate. People like Charlie Blackmon would not have been a positive test a month ago because he does not show symptoms. We are casting a wider net and counting healthy people as "positives" when they have never shown symptoms

Baseball does not need to be a traveling sport. If you want seclusion pick a state and play the games there.

US deaths per day still shows a downward trend.
https://ycharts.com/..._deaths_per_day

as stated earlier positive test as a rate of negative test is trending up, meaning growth in positive tests are attributed to spread of the virus, once growth of negative tests outpace positive tests, you can attribute positive test growth only to increased testing, not spread of the virus. That came from one of the imbedded articles quoted in the twitter thread, reposted here:

https://medium.com/@...en-b1de3348e88b

Deaths as a rate of infection is trending down, partially due to increased testing, and partially due to improved treatment, and also due to younger people being diagnosed. As quoted up thread by Ben, there are questions about potential impacts after recovery that we don’t yet have answers to. I think it’s great that fatality rate is down, however at current fatality rate (120k at 20 million assumed infections in the US) Herd immunity (70% population infection) means .6% x 220,000,000 is 1.3 million deaths to reach herd immunity.

To reach perspective 8,000 to 20,000 people die of the flu per year.


And Baseball doesn’t “have to be” a traveling sport, it’s true, but that isn’t an option for the current proposal is it?

I just want to remind, the business conference in Singapore with just a couple hundred people was the catslyst, 900 baseball players... just wait and see...

#82 SomeGuy

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Posted 25 June 2020 - 04:46 PM

 

as stated earlier positive test as a rate of negative test is trending up, meaning growth in positive tests are attributed to spread of the virus, once growth of negative tests outpace positive tests, you can attribute positive test growth only to increased testing, not spread of the virus. That came from one of the imbedded articles quoted in the twitter thread, reposted here:

https://medium.com/@...en-b1de3348e88b

You cant compare testing today to testing of the past when a large majority of the new cases would not have been allowed a test.One of the 5 Phillies showed symptoms that's 80% that they would not bother testing earlier during quarantine.Of course it will look like a "spike" in new cases when you change the parameters.Deaths continue to plunge nation wide as more people interact with society.This is great news, the virus is not nearly as deadly as we thought.We are finding a big chunk of the cases don't even notice they contracted the virus.Had the testing been the same throughout the whole process we would be seeing a downward trend in new cases.  

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#83 SomeGuy

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Posted 25 June 2020 - 06:19 PM

 

as stated earlier positive test as a rate of negative test is trending up, meaning growth in positive tests are attributed to spread of the virus, once growth of negative tests outpace positive tests, you can attribute positive test growth only to increased testing, not spread of the virus. That came from one of the imbedded articles quoted in the twitter thread, reposted here:

https://medium.com/@...en-b1de3348e88b

Deaths as a rate of infection is trending down, partially due to increased testing, and partially due to improved treatment, and also due to younger people being diagnosed. As quoted up thread by Ben, there are questions about potential impacts after recovery that we don’t yet have answers to. I think it’s great that fatality rate is down, however at current fatality rate (120k at 20 million assumed infections in the US) Herd immunity (70% population infection) means .6% x 220,000,000 is 1.3 million deaths to reach herd immunity.

To reach perspective 8,000 to 20,000 people die of the flu per year.


And Baseball doesn’t “have to be” a traveling sport, it’s true, but that isn’t an option for the current proposal is it?

I just want to remind, the business conference in Singapore with just a couple hundred people was the catslyst, 900 baseball players... just wait and see...

CDC on 6/25/20"For every 1 case reported.it is likely 10 cases went unreported."

 

We are finally catching some of those other 10 in the increased testing. According to the CDC it is likely that the 2.3M total US cases is more like 23M Americans.Deaths are still trending downward while we get a better picture of how many people are actually getting and surviving this thing.

 

In a call with reporters on Thursday, CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield said, “In the past, we didn’t really aggressively pursue diagnostics in young asymptomatic individuals.”

 

https://www.foxnews....d-cdc-estimates


#84 Sconnie

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Posted 25 June 2020 - 07:13 PM

You cant compare testing today to testing of the past when a large majority of the new cases would not have been allowed a test. One of the 5 Phillies showed symptoms that's 80% that they would not bother testing earlier during quarantine. Of course it will look like a "spike" in new cases when you change the parameters. Deaths continue to plunge nation wide as more people interact with society. This is great news, the virus is not nearly as deadly as we thought. We are finding a big chunk of the cases don't even notice they contracted the virus. Had the testing been the same throughout the whole process we would be seeing a downward trend in new cases.

except that negative test results are rising at the same rate as positive test results. That means the virus is spreading.

If the negative test rates were climbing at a faster rate than positive, you could make the claim that the virus isn’t spreading and the only reason for new test results is increased sample size.

The constant is the negative rate. If the constant never climbs relative to the result you are testing for, you account for sample size, directionally. Larger sample becomes more accurate, and will continue to get more accurate as the sample gets larger, but you can still make relative inferences compared to past if you maintain the constant.
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#85 SomeGuy

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Posted 25 June 2020 - 07:39 PM

The CDC chief is also predicting many schools will be opening in August, within 1 month of the baseball season starting.

 

U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Robert Redfield told lawmakers:

It is my expectation that many jurisdictions will be opening schools. We are going to try to give guidance to help them do it safely. I think we’re going to see progressive jurisdictions move to open schools in the fall.

 

 

 

Asked whether kids and young adults would be able to return to class in August, Dr. Redfield told the House panel Tuesday:
I anticipate that the states will begin to open up higher education and K-12. It is going to be based on jurisdiction to jurisdiction decisions. CDC will be issuing additional guidance on this topic in the days ahead as we continue to try to work and give guide … [on] how to open them up safely.


#86 Sconnie

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Posted 26 June 2020 - 08:18 AM

Mod note:

I am as guilty of this as anyone, a reminder to myself and everyone else:

This is a baseball thread, let’s keep to topic

Broader Covid discussion should be here:
http://twinsdaily.co...-33#entry969735
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#87 Doctor Gast

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Posted 26 June 2020 - 10:21 AM

W/ all the bitter taste I`ve had in my mouth since March, I`m happy that it`s finally starting. & that things will be better now that baseball will start than if it had not. I haven`t been following football, basketball or hockey, my question is, are these contact, primarily indoor sports been under the same assault as baseball? just curious


#88 Tomj14

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Posted 26 June 2020 - 10:21 AM

 

 

If the negative test rates were climbing at a faster rate than positive, you could make the claim that the virus isn’t spreading and the only reason for new test results is increased sample size.
 

Covid is a virus that has no cure or vaccine, so of course it is spreading, there is NO way to stop the spread, we can only hope to slow it down until there is a vaccine or it just goes away.

The numbers now say it isn't a deadly as once thought (which is a wonderful thing) but the numbers also say it probably spreads pretty easy, which mean we need to keep the most vulnerable safe, but this idea that we can stop it is crazy talk and we can't shut down our society and hunker down in our houses for less than 1% of the population.

 

Baseball topic, sucks if the the Twins that tested positive get sick, but I am kind of hoping it is their best players, if the twins best players have/had it and didn't get sick, this should mean they will be around the whole season.


#89 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 26 June 2020 - 11:04 AM

 

Multiple players were already put on 60-man DL this spring. There's no reason to be pedantic about this.

 

It's IL, not DL.I'm also not being pedantic, I'm pointing out an obvious flaw in the numerical logic--namely that even in a full 162 game season last year, probably only about 1500 to 1600 players were paid $100k by a major league team.It's no surprise that when salaries are cut by 63% (which is less of a cut than the owners are taking in revenue, by the way), that the proportion of players making below $100k increases.Last year to make $100k, a player only needed to be on a roster for about 1/6 of the season--this year it will be almost half.The numbers simply don't add up, and at the end of the year, I am willing to bet that nowhere near 42% of players made less than $100k.


#90 SQUIRREL

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Posted 26 June 2020 - 12:59 PM

If you want to talk Coronavirus, and just Coronavirus, take it to the Sports Bar. If you want to equate risk, health and safety concerns in the game of baseball, then talk about it in terms of baseball.

 

It's that simple. Don't thread jack. Moderators, too, please. :)

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#91 biggentleben

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Posted 26 June 2020 - 01:00 PM

 

It's IL, not DL.I'm also not being pedantic, I'm pointing out an obvious flaw in the numerical logic--namely that even in a full 162 game season last year, probably only about 1500 to 1600 players were paid $100k by a major league team.It's no surprise that when salaries are cut by 63% (which is less of a cut than the owners are taking in revenue, by the way), that the proportion of players making below $100k increases.Last year to make $100k, a player only needed to be on a roster for about 1/6 of the season--this year it will be almost half.The numbers simply don't add up, and at the end of the year, I am willing to bet that nowhere near 42% of players made less than $100k.

 

 

That comment is the definition of pedantic... :lol:

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#92 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 26 June 2020 - 03:09 PM

 

That comment is the definition of pedantic... :lol:

 

And this is the definition of a loaded statement.I say you're something, and by you denying it, it only confirms you are what I say.The original number seemed illegitimate, which I demonstrated it was.

 

As for IL vs DL, that's a serious thing--serious enough that MLB changed it.Continuing to use the ableist term DL shows dismissiveness towards the experience of thousands of humans.


#93 Monkeypaws

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Posted 27 June 2020 - 08:27 PM

MLB just has to be relieved Matt Garza is retired - never saw a player spit as much as him.