Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
The same great Twins Daily coverage, now for the Vikings.

The Store


Photo

Baseball Prospectus Top 10 Twins Prospects

  • Please log in to reply
32 replies to this topic

#1 Seth Stohs

Seth Stohs

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 7,490 posts

Posted 15 November 2012 - 09:37 AM

http://www.baseballp...articleid=18912

I don't know why it isn't linking above, but here is the link to the Baseball Prospectus Top 10 Twins Prospects. Interesting at the top, and a few players moved around a bit. Feel free to provide your thoughts.

#2 gunnarthor

gunnarthor

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,779 posts

Posted 15 November 2012 - 09:43 AM

Interesting list. Buxton above Sano? Cool. Agree with Hicks at 3 but, generally, our top 6 is pretty set, just flip them around a bit.

Good to see Polanco getting into the top 10. Three guys (Sano, Kepler and Polanco) were international signees from the same year. Nice class.

#3 nicksaviking

nicksaviking

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,714 posts

Posted 15 November 2012 - 10:08 AM

Polanco is interesting but probably a good call. If there's one thing you can count on, shortstops with even a modest offensive ceiling are about as coveted as anything.

#4 AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS

AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 399 posts

Posted 15 November 2012 - 11:03 AM

Potential wise Buxton should be number one, but i think Sano is number one due to fact he has played and shown he can be a pretty good hitter.

#5 Twins Twerp

Twins Twerp

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 792 posts

Posted 15 November 2012 - 11:32 AM

Paid 4.95 just to read this article. Awesome. Though the forecast for next year seems bleak, in the eyes of baseball prospectus. Even more of reason to punt on next season and trade todays stars for tomorrows.

#6 Jim Crikket

Jim Crikket

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,134 posts

Posted 15 November 2012 - 02:15 PM

I've been playing around with preparing my own Top 10 list for the blog and had already decided I was going to push Buxton to the top above Sano primarily because I think he's a better all-around player and defense counts for something with me. Here I thought I was going to be "original" and it turns out I'll just be "following" BP's lead. Dang!
[COLOR=#0000cd]I opine about the Twins and Kernels regularly at[/COLOR][COLOR=#800000] Knuckleballsblog.com[/COLOR][COLOR=#0000cd] while my alter ego, SD Buhr covers the Kernels for [/COLOR][COLOR=#0000cd][COLOR=#800000]MetroSportsReport.com[/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=#0000cd].[/COLOR] [COLOR=#0000cd]
[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#b22222]~You can get anything you want at Alice's Restaurant~[/COLOR]

#7 Jim Crikket

Jim Crikket

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,134 posts

Posted 15 November 2012 - 02:24 PM

As many as five of BP's Top 10 should spend some time in Cedar Rapids with the Kernels in 2013 (Buxton, Kepler, Berrios, Harrison, Polanco). As a Kernels fan, that's kind of exciting and a refreshing change from the talent levels we've been getting from the Angels organization the past couple of seasons.

On the other hand, as a Twins fan, it demonstrates just how far many of the Twins best prospects are from reaching Target Field, especially considering that two more, Sano and Rosario, are likely to also be starting the season at A+ Ft. Myers.
[COLOR=#0000cd]I opine about the Twins and Kernels regularly at[/COLOR][COLOR=#800000] Knuckleballsblog.com[/COLOR][COLOR=#0000cd] while my alter ego, SD Buhr covers the Kernels for [/COLOR][COLOR=#0000cd][COLOR=#800000]MetroSportsReport.com[/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=#0000cd].[/COLOR] [COLOR=#0000cd]
[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#b22222]~You can get anything you want at Alice's Restaurant~[/COLOR]

#8 PseudoSABR

PseudoSABR

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 1,968 posts

Posted 15 November 2012 - 02:39 PM

As many as five of BP's Top 10 should spend some time in Cedar Rapids with the Kernels in 2013 (Buxton, Kepler, Berrios, Harrison, Polanco). As a Kernels fan, that's kind of exciting and a refreshing change from the talent levels we've been getting from the Angels organization the past couple of seasons.

On the other hand, as a Twins fan, it demonstrates just how far many of the Twins best prospects are from reaching Target Field, especially considering that two more, Sano and Rosario, are likely to also be starting the season at A+ Ft. Myers.

Another way to read this, an optimistic way, is that most of the elite prospects should arrive in majors around the same time, giving the Twins a young nucleus to build around.

#9 birdwatcher

birdwatcher

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 986 posts

Posted 15 November 2012 - 02:54 PM

Actually, Mr. Crikket, I believe Cody Christie, our NoDakTwinsFan, beat both you and BPRO to the punch on picking Buxton as the top prospect. So, if you want to be a pioneer, go with someone like Amaurys Minier.

Although seven of their picks are three years away or so, the overall list is SO much more hopeful than past year's.

I've been tracking various top whatevers for awhile now. These twenty-two prospects still make someone's top ten:

Kyle Gibson
Liam Hendriks
Chris Parmelee
Brian Dozier
Alex Wimmers
Oswaldo Arcia
Joe Benson
Aaron Hicks
Chris Herrmann
Adrian Salcedo
Madison Boer
Levi Michael
Angel Morales
Miguel Sano
Eddie Rosario
Kennys Vargas
J.O. Berrios
Hudson Boyd
Byron Buxton
Travis Harrison
Max Kepler
Mason Melotakis

Not a bad list.

#10 birdwatcher

birdwatcher

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 986 posts

Posted 15 November 2012 - 02:55 PM

And Jorge Polanco.

#11 Jim Crikket

Jim Crikket

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,134 posts

Posted 15 November 2012 - 03:10 PM

Not sure how I missed Cody's list, though I admit that I not only wasn't writing while I was fighting off a bug, but I wasn't reading much either. I'll stick with Buxton, though, even if I've got good company with the pick.

And I agree with Pseudo, it does bode well when all of those guys arrive at the same time. Now I just have to live long enough to see it.
[COLOR=#0000cd]I opine about the Twins and Kernels regularly at[/COLOR][COLOR=#800000] Knuckleballsblog.com[/COLOR][COLOR=#0000cd] while my alter ego, SD Buhr covers the Kernels for [/COLOR][COLOR=#0000cd][COLOR=#800000]MetroSportsReport.com[/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=#0000cd].[/COLOR] [COLOR=#0000cd]
[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#b22222]~You can get anything you want at Alice's Restaurant~[/COLOR]

#12 Steve Penz

Steve Penz

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 240 posts

Posted 15 November 2012 - 04:04 PM

I am excited to road trip and go see them play.

#13 diehardtwinsfan

diehardtwinsfan

    Twins Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 4,689 posts

Posted 15 November 2012 - 06:33 PM

Buxton as number 1? Based on what? I like tools, but Sano has tools, Hicks has tools, Gibson has tools. Placing Buxton at number 1 is nothing more than drooling over the newest pretty girl that walks into the room for no other reason than because she's new.

#14 Seth Stohs

Seth Stohs

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 7,490 posts

Posted 15 November 2012 - 06:42 PM

Buxton as number 1? Based on what? I like tools, but Sano has tools, Hicks has tools, Gibson has tools. Placing Buxton at number 1 is nothing more than drooling over the newest pretty girl that walks into the room for no other reason than because she's new.


Buxton's all-around tool set is so far above all of the others... I mean, there's a reason he was a #2 overall pick... His upside is incredible... the question will be, how many of those tools will eventually become skills, and how long will it take. It took until this year for Hicks's tools to start becoming skills, 4 years after he was drafted... that's not unusual.

#15 JB_Iowa

JB_Iowa

    Cynical Oldie

  • Members
  • 3,809 posts
  • LocationNorthwest Iowa

Posted 16 November 2012 - 01:47 PM

It's gratifying to see Hicks move back up to #3 since he now has some maturity as well.

He is also a reminder that players bounce around in these ratings and are, as they are called, prospects. A lot can happen before they reach the major league level.

But reading this list still makes me more optimistic today than I was a couple of years ago.

#16 Kwak

Kwak

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,295 posts

Posted 16 November 2012 - 02:36 PM

I'm happy for all of you fans that are delighted by this list--except that there are only two pitchers (20%) and the active roster comprises nearly 50% pitchers. I haven't examined the composition of previous top ten prospect lists but I suspect that they also underweighted pitchers. It seems to me that the Twins must rectify this disparity between pitching/position top prospects very soon. I too am anxious to see these young men in Twins uniforms soon, likely sooner than most others.

#17 diehardtwinsfan

diehardtwinsfan

    Twins Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 4,689 posts

Posted 16 November 2012 - 07:30 PM

Buxton as number 1? Based on what? I like tools, but Sano has tools, Hicks has tools, Gibson has tools. Placing Buxton at number 1 is nothing more than drooling over the newest pretty girl that walks into the room for no other reason than because she's new.


Buxton's all-around tool set is so far above all of the others... I mean, there's a reason he was a #2 overall pick... His upside is incredible... the question will be, how many of those tools will eventually become skills, and how long will it take. It took until this year for Hicks's tools to start becoming skills, 4 years after he was drafted... that's not unusual.


He was number 2 in a weak class. Hicks was in every way a similar prospect to Buxton. The problem is once you've looked at the girl long enough, you tend to pick out little flaws. Buxton is simply the newest girl. I'm all for prospecting, but these lists mean nothing if the only metric is tools and upside. The problem I see with Buxton is that the Twins have 4 guys who are highly thought of that are succeeding at higher levels in the minors (Sano, Arcia, Rosario, and Hicks). Arcia and Hicks have done so quite nicely at AA. While Buxton has tools, to pretend he's even a lock to make it that far is kind of silly.

I don't have a problem factoring in upside, but it shouldn't be placed above toolsy guys who are actually producing.

#18 Twins Twerp

Twins Twerp

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 792 posts

Posted 16 November 2012 - 10:08 PM

I'm happy for all of you fans that are delighted by this list--except that there are only two pitchers (20%) and the active roster comprises nearly 50% pitchers. I haven't examined the composition of previous top ten prospect lists but I suspect that they also underweighted pitchers. It seems to me that the Twins must rectify this disparity between pitching/position top prospects very soon. I too am anxious to see these young men in Twins uniforms soon, likely sooner than most others.


One thing about the list being full of position players is that Relievers general do not rank very high. Yes there are 25 men on a roster, but only 5 of those 12-13 pitchers are starters. I feel like some of our power arms in the low minors will be very good relievers. A guy like Chargios doesn't rank as high, even though the chances of him making an impact at the Majors level is higher than a toolsy outfielder who will be ranked high. Melotakis is a guy who also may be a reliever but will not be ranked high for taht fact alone.

Saying that I do agree we need to add some starting pitching prospects to our farm system. Hopefully Alex Wimmers can come back and give us another arm we can rank in the top 10 next year.

#19 beckmt

beckmt

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 830 posts

Posted 17 November 2012 - 01:08 AM

I also agree that relivers are not highly rated, though 1 -2 of these could be in New Britian by the end of 2013. I hope the Twins start Rosario in New Britian, but they probably will not. Sano needs to start in FT. Myers.

#20 kab21

kab21

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,430 posts

Posted 17 November 2012 - 08:39 AM

I'm happy for all of you fans that are delighted by this list--except that there are only two pitchers (20%) and the active roster comprises nearly 50% pitchers. I haven't examined the composition of previous top ten prospect lists but I suspect that they also underweighted pitchers. It seems to me that the Twins must rectify this disparity between pitching/position top prospects very soon. I too am anxious to see these young men in Twins uniforms soon, likely sooner than most others.


I think everyone is disappointed by the lack of pitchers but you have the makings of a potentially elite offensive core that is cheap. There's a reason that people are excited and pitching strength can change in a hurry if Span/Willy are traded for a pitching prospect and the Twins pick a starter at #4.

#21 clutterheart

clutterheart

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 661 posts

Posted 17 November 2012 - 08:42 AM

Interesting list. Buxton above Sano? Cool. Agree with Hicks at 3 but, generally, our top 6 is pretty set, just flip them around a bit.

Good to see Polanco getting into the top 10. Three guys (Sano, Kepler and Polanco) were international signees from the same year. Nice class.


At some point we might have to reconsider the reign of Bill Smith

#22 gunnarthor

gunnarthor

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,779 posts

Posted 17 November 2012 - 02:02 PM

At some point we might have to reconsider the reign of Bill Smith


I agree. He did a number of good things, foremost improving our international footprint. He got too much blame on some trades and he, unlike Ryan, was willing to make "win now" trades which fans were clamoring for for years. I like that he put Johnson in charge of our drafts although, admittedly, those drafts haven't panned out yet.

#23 Twins Twerp

Twins Twerp

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 792 posts

Posted 18 November 2012 - 11:18 PM

The only thing smith has to fall back on is his international signings. But for a guy like sano...there is a nishioka to balance the scale...or tip it to the point of not reassessing his time as gm. Then u have capps...trading jj hardy, trading johan for a bucket of balls...the list goes on. Maybe well thank him when buxton is a hall of famer for it was his foresight to create a terrible tewm so we could have a high pick...the man is a genious

#24 Kwak

Kwak

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,295 posts

Posted 18 November 2012 - 11:35 PM



At some point we might have to reconsider the reign of Bill Smith


I agree. He did a number of good things, foremost improving our international footprint. He got too much blame on some trades and he, unlike Ryan, was willing to make "win now" trades which fans were clamoring for for years. I like that he put Johnson in charge of our drafts although, admittedly, those drafts haven't panned out yet.

Well stated--I totally agree. There are many who have made posts reviling Smith, but I think he was a GM in a weak position of power in the organization. It seems to me that the FO managed by committee and Smith was but one voice with "horsetrading" widely practiced to build consensus among all, bearing in mind that this was the Twins, not the Yankees/Red Sox/etc. Should he carry blame--sure, but there should be plenty of other names on that list and those guys are still around. Smith stated as he carried his head, "...there were many other signatures on the paper, mine was only the last one." I sure hope that these internationals he signed truly rise and shine--so the Twins devote more resources to this source of talent--especially at the expense of "veteran free agent value signings".

#25 gunnarthor

gunnarthor

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,779 posts

Posted 19 November 2012 - 11:17 AM

The only thing smith has to fall back on is his international signings. But for a guy like sano...there is a nishioka to balance the scale...or tip it to the point of not reassessing his time as gm. Then u have capps...trading jj hardy, trading johan for a bucket of balls...the list goes on. Maybe well thank him when buxton is a hall of famer for it was his foresight to create a terrible tewm so we could have a high pick...the man is a genious


He made a number of good small deals - Rauch, Pavano, Cabrera. He also signed Thome, Crede and Hudson. He changed the offensive philosophy away from piranha ball to getting some offense out of our lower order spots. Because of needing to sign Mauer, he locked in a lot of contracts. Blackburn always gets thrown out but he also signed Kubel, Baker, Morneau, Span and Cuddy to nice team friendly deals.

Fans revolt on his trades but he really had no choice on the Santana deal. Garza/Young was the type of trade fans had been demanding for years. Hardy was traded b/c of payroll issues and the coaching staff wanting a "different direction." Fans here act like Ramos is an all-star catcher when in fact he was an injury prone player with plate discipline issues whose prospect status was falling. And fans are less likely to complain about the Bullock/Diamond deal now compared to when it happened. As mentioned, he made a number of good small deals and the 2010 Twins were the best Twins team since 1991 in large part because of how Smith went about creating the team (again, no piranhas!).

Smith came into the Twins at a horrible time and, as Kwik notes, didn't have all that much power. The Twins had missed the playoffs two out of the last three years and had just had their first losing season. Santana, Silva and Hunter were going to be gone. Liriano was coming back from injury. Mauer was going to need a huge deal. And we had an aging core. Smith built for 2010, it worked, but the window fell apart in 2011. I'm not saying he shouldn't have been fired but he did get too much of the blame, (and I think he was fired more b/c he wanted to spend more money). As mentioned, I like that Johnson took over the draft and changed some of our philosophy but it hasn't yet panned out for us.

#26 mike wants wins

mike wants wins

    Would Like to be More Positive

  • Members
  • 6,135 posts

Posted 19 November 2012 - 01:07 PM

Smith gets too much blame.for the failings of the minor league system from before his time. Was he perfect, no. But this is an organizational failing, not on one person.

#27 ThePuck

ThePuck

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,232 posts

Posted 19 November 2012 - 04:29 PM

Thank you! Finally some other people saying things about Smith I've been saying since he was fired. Good to know I'm not the only one...

#28 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 8,798 posts

Posted 19 November 2012 - 07:30 PM

I've always said that Smith did a pretty good job with the minors, drafting, and international minor league players.

He offset that with an absolutely abominable job handling the major league roster. He traded away the Twins best pitcher and best young pitcher in the same offseason. Hardy for Hoey offset any goodwill from the Hardy/Gomez deal. Ramos/Capps. Nishioka.

He had one good offseason before 2010 but other than that, almost every deal he made was horrible for the Twins.

#29 Kwak

Kwak

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,295 posts

Posted 19 November 2012 - 08:13 PM

I've always said that Smith did a pretty good job with the minors, drafting, and international minor league players.

He offset that with an absolutely abominable job handling the major league roster. He traded away the Twins best pitcher and best young pitcher in the same offseason. Hardy for Hoey offset any goodwill from the Hardy/Gomez deal. Ramos/Capps. Nishioka.

He had one good offseason before 2010 but other than that, almost every deal he made was horrible for the Twins.


There are people (me) who believe that Hardy was run-off of the team as well as being a part of the salary dump after 2010. I was one (and I think most others) who interpreted the Twins statement that "Target field will allow the Twins to resign the top player(s) of the team" to mean re-sign the stars and keep the main supporting cast, as opposed to keeping the stars only and slashing the salaries elsewhere to return to the status quo of salary total. Our Bad. Smith (likely) simply agreed to the consensus of dump Hardy and sign Nishioka as opposed to devising this all by himself. I don't think that Smith held that kind of power to act alone in defining the Active Roster.

#30 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 8,798 posts

Posted 19 November 2012 - 09:36 PM

The price difference between Hardy and Nishioka was negligible in 2011 (without looking at the numbers, pretty sure Hardy was actually cheaper once you count Nishioka's signing bonus). That was an on-field decision and it was a bad one.