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On New MLB Proposal, How it Relates to the Twins and a Potential Solution

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#1 Tom Froemming

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Posted 09 June 2020 - 04:19 PM

Jeff Passan of ESPN provided the most comprehensive breakdown of the MLB owners' latest proposal on Twitter. I discussed that offer, how it relates to the Twins and an option on how to attempt to bridge the gap between the owners and players.

 

 

Passan did such a great job at relaying how it all relates to the league, but that's not how we usually talk about salaries in baseball. The actual details of this offer only guarantees players 50% of their prorated salaries, but through postseason shares and other bonuses it ends up equating to 75% of the prorated amount. Included in this video is a breakdown of how all this would relate to the Twins' payroll, just using that more straight-forward 75% amount of prorated salaries. Here that is:

 

TwinsPayroll

 

One thing I didn't do in the video was trickle that down to an individual player. Let's take a look at Nelson Cruz. He was set to make $12 million. Prorate that to 76 games and you get $5.6 million, take 75% of that and you get $4.2 million.

 

How about someone who hasn't been around as long? Mitch Garver was set to make $620,000 this season. That'd drop to $290,864 prorated to 76 games, then down to $218,148 at the 75% rate.

 

I'm confident we'll see some kind of a 2020 MLB season, but don't expect either side to compromise. My solution? Look for another way to inject (even more) money into the game. You'd have to expect TV ratings to boom, there has to be some way to benefit from that ... 

 

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#2 yarnivek1972

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Posted 10 June 2020 - 06:09 AM

I read the espn articles on the latest proposal. I gotta say, I’m less optimistic about baseball in 2020 than I was in late March.

In terms of real dollars, the two sides are about $500,000,000 apart. That’s a pretty big gap to close with a very small window in which to do so. I agree with the opinions given that if MLB unilaterally implements the 50 game schedule, players won’t report and will technically be on strike. I also see that as the most likely scenario if an agreement isn’t reached in the next ten days. I personally think the chances of an agreement being reached that quickly are no better than 20%.
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#3 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 10 June 2020 - 09:13 PM

 

I read the espn articles on the latest proposal. I gotta say, I’m less optimistic about baseball in 2020 than I was in late March.

In terms of real dollars, the two sides are about $500,000,000 apart. That’s a pretty big gap to close with a very small window in which to do so. I agree with the opinions given that if MLB unilaterally implements the 50 game schedule, players won’t report and will technically be on strike. I also see that as the most likely scenario if an agreement isn’t reached in the next ten days. I personally think the chances of an agreement being reached that quickly are no better than 20%.

 

Yeah... I tend to agree even though I really really really hope you're wrong. I am not holding out much hope that we see baseball this summer.


#4 rdehring

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Posted 11 June 2020 - 07:17 AM

We are going to have baseball, guys.If the owners and players can't come to agreement in the next week or so, Manfred will dictate an opening day of say July 20 and a 60+/- game season. ST2 will open about June 25.

 

Lots of established players will look at that and say not only no, but hell no to playing this year. The owners will have openings on their rosters and someone will fill them. Baseball will play with lots of AA, AAA and AAAA players filling out the rosters, earning the league minimum for 60 games...or about $200,000. With many of the more expensive players staying home, teams will break-even with many having payrolls of less than $20mm, not including the losses incurred earlier in the year.  

 

If I were an owner I just might see this as the best alternative available during a trying time. If I were a player, I would be upset by the likelihood that my career is loosing one full year of compensation with another hit likely coming in 2022. 

 

Those of us waiting to see players like Kirilloff and Larnach may get our wish a lot sooner than we think.

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#5 yarnivek1972

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Posted 11 June 2020 - 10:25 AM

We are going to have baseball, guys. If the owners and players can't come to agreement in the next week or so, Manfred will dictate an opening day of say July 20 and a 60+/- game season. ST2 will open about June 25.

Lots of established players will look at that and say not only no, but hell no to playing this year. The owners will have openings on their rosters and someone will fill them. Baseball will play with lots of AA, AAA and AAAA players filling out the rosters, earning the league minimum for 60 games...or about $200,000. With many of the more expensive players staying home, teams will break-even with many having payrolls of less than $20mm, not including the losses incurred earlier in the year.

If I were an owner I just might see this as the best alternative available during a trying time. If I were a player, I would be upset by the likelihood that my career is loosing one full year of compensation with another hit likely coming in 2022.

Those of us waiting to see players like Kirilloff and Larnach may get our wish a lot sooner than we think.


I don’t think there is any way the union accepts a unilaterally imposed agreement and I think it is highly unlikely MLB uses “replacement” players. No one who ever thinks they belong will cross.
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#6 rdehring

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Posted 11 June 2020 - 11:28 AM

 

I don’t think there is any way the union accepts a unilaterally imposed agreement and I think it is highly unlikely MLB uses “replacement” players. No one who ever thinks they belong will cross.

That's an interesting question.What I have read the union has put themselves into a bit of a corner.The March deal they are basing their demand for full pro rata comp per game played, gives the owner's the right to cut the season's length, which is what Manfred is threatening.Yes, they can individually opt out or opt out en mass. So they have already accepted a shortened season at full per game pay.

 

The other part of your comment is what will be interesting.How many top prospects would report and play?Unknown, although if the union isn't striking it is different than crossing a picket line.

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#7 yarnivek1972

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Posted 11 June 2020 - 01:22 PM

That's an interesting question. What I have read the union has put themselves into a bit of a corner. The March deal they are basing their demand for full pro rata comp per game played, gives the owner's the right to cut the season's length, which is what Manfred is threatening. Yes, they can individually opt out or opt out en mass. So they have already accepted a shortened season at full per game pay.

The other part of your comment is what will be interesting. How many top prospects would report and play? Unknown, although if the union isn't striking it is different than crossing a picket line.


I kinda worded that badly. What I meant was that I don’t believe that anyone who thinks they will ever make it through the “normal” process would cross. That was the case last time replacements were nearly used. It was a bunch of never weres and never will bes. The exception being Rick Reed who used the opportunity to make a bunch of money.

But yes, I don’t think MLB players will report with the proposal of 50 games at fully prorated. Mainly because they don’t believe that the playoff dates are set in stone. Alternatively, they might report and then strike at the end of the regular season, when the impact for the owners will be highest.

#8 howeda7

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Posted 11 June 2020 - 03:19 PM

 

Jeff Passan of ESPN provided the most comprehensive breakdown of the MLB owners' latest proposal on Twitter. I discussed that offer, how it relates to the Twins and an option on how to attempt to bridge the gap between the owners and players.

 

 

Passan did such a great job at relaying how it all relates to the league, but that's not how we usually talk about salaries in baseball. The actual details of this offer only guarantees players 50% of their prorated salaries, but through postseason shares and other bonuses it ends up equating to 75% of the prorated amount. Included in this video is a breakdown of how all this would relate to the Twins' payroll, just using that more straight-forward 75% amount of prorated salaries. Here that is:

 

 

 

One thing I didn't do in the video was trickle that down to an individual player. Let's take a look at Nelson Cruz. He was set to make $12 million. Prorate that to 76 games and you get $5.6 million, take 75% of that and you get $4.2 million.

 

How about someone who hasn't been around as long? Mitch Garver was set to make $620,000 this season. That'd drop to $290,864 prorated to 76 games, then down to $218,148 at the 75% rate.

 

I'm confident we'll see some kind of a 2020 MLB season, but don't expect either side to compromise. My solution? Look for another way to inject (even more) money into the game. You'd have to expect TV ratings to boom, there has to be some way to benefit from that ... 

On the TV ratings, not really. The deal with FSN is already in place. I suppose you could go to them and say "help us out if you want 80 games vs. 50" but they're probably not just going fork over several million to make it happen.


#9 howeda7

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Posted 11 June 2020 - 03:21 PM

80 games prorated at 87.5% and call it a day.


#10 yarnivek1972

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Posted 11 June 2020 - 04:23 PM

80 games prorated at 87.5% and call it a day.

Players could report tomorrow and not have time to get in 80 games. Minimum 3 weeks for ST2. That takes us to about July 4. That still pushes the regular season into October. If they extend playoffs to 16 teams, that likely extends playoffs into the second week of November. And that’s if players report tomorrow. Once the deal is ratified, it will take a minimum of one week to get everyone into camp. 80 games if a deal were reached tomorrow still extends postseason until late November. Add a day to that for every day beyond today that it takes to get a deal done (or take a game away).

If there isn’t a deal by June 20, I think it’s over.
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#11 mlhouse

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Posted 11 June 2020 - 04:51 PM

 

80 games prorated at 87.5% and call it a day.

 

If you ran a business and received half your revenues, would you pay your employees 87.5% and call it a day?  

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#12 howeda7

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Posted 11 June 2020 - 04:59 PM

 

Players could report tomorrow and not have time to get in 80 games. Minimum 3 weeks for ST2. That takes us to about July 4. That still pushes the regular season into October. If they extend playoffs to 16 teams, that likely extends playoffs into the second week of November. And that’s if players report tomorrow. Once the deal is ratified, it will take a minimum of one week to get everyone into camp. 80 games if a deal were reached tomorrow still extends postseason until late November. Add a day to that for every day beyond today that it takes to get a deal done (or take a game away).

If there isn’t a deal by June 20, I think it’s over.

This deal should have been reached 3 weeks ago. But it is what it is. Play into October and move the play-offs to a neutral warm weather location in November. Miami is a safe bet to be neutral and they have a roof.


#13 howeda7

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Posted 11 June 2020 - 05:00 PM

 

 

If you ran a business and received half your revenues, would you pay your employees 87.5% and call it a day?  

Not under normal circumstances, but in a one-off extraordinary circumstance like this, yes. Plenty of businesses have made similar tough decisions in the last 3 months. If there is no MLB season, the long-term damage to the sport will be a lot greater than the 12.5% salary they're fighting about.

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#14 yarnivek1972

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Posted 11 June 2020 - 05:27 PM

This deal should have been reached 3 weeks ago. But it is what it is. Play into October and move the play-offs to a neutral warm weather location in November. Miami is a safe bet to be neutral and they have a roof.


If they hold all the playoff games in one stadium it will take even longer.
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#15 yarnivek1972

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Posted 11 June 2020 - 05:31 PM

Not under normal circumstances, but in a one-off extraordinary circumstance like this, yes. Plenty of businesses have made similar tough decisions in the last 3 months. If there is no MLB season, the long-term damage to the sport will be a lot greater than the 12.5% salary they're fighting about.


The “one off” is likely to extend to 2021. I don’t see fans being allowed at most stadiums until a vaccine is ready. That is not likely before April 2021. It’s not even probable by October 2021. I could MAYBE see states allowing 50% capacity next year.
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#16 Mike Sixel

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Posted 11 June 2020 - 05:43 PM

 

The “one off” is likely to extend to 2021. I don’t see fans being allowed at most stadiums until a vaccine is ready. That is not likely before April 2021. It’s not even probable by October 2021. I could MAYBE see states allowing 50% capacity next year.

 

This is quite true, imo. We could be looking at 2022 before things are close to normal for big events like this. 

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#17 Trov

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Posted 12 June 2020 - 09:08 AM

 

80 games prorated at 87.5% and call it a day.

Players will not accept that.They have drawn a line at full prorate.So 87.5% will not get it done.The players have made no counter to a reduce in pay.The owners have countered with several different ways to pay about 33% of full season pay.Except for full revenue split, which was also a non-starter for players. 


#18 Trov

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Posted 12 June 2020 - 09:14 AM

 

Not under normal circumstances, but in a one-off extraordinary circumstance like this, yes. Plenty of businesses have made similar tough decisions in the last 3 months. If there is no MLB season, the long-term damage to the sport will be a lot greater than the 12.5% salary they're fighting about.

Maybe you should counsel the players.I think if the players came out and countered with exactly that, and the owners balked at it, then the owners would look terrible.Right now, I think the players look terrible.They want full pay for play, which make sense, but they are not willing to accept fact that this is not a normal situation.Neither side has moved an inch for weeks, the owners have just dressed up the pay in different packages but the overall pay has been the same.However, players have not budged either, making claims they want to give the fans more games, but really they just want more money.If they were willing to do the over 100 games at a less than prorate, then their claim of giving fans more games hold water.  

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#19 amjgt

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Posted 12 June 2020 - 10:29 AM

Here's what I've been saying from the get go... Keep the first $500k completely whole (like it was a 162 game season). Fully prorated for $500k-$3M. Then 50% prorated above that.

Assuming an 81 game season (for easy math)...

Garver who was due to make $620k, would get all of the first $500k, then a prorated amount (half in this example) for the remaining $120k - So he would make $560k

Berrios who was due to make $4M would get all of the first $500k, fully prorated for the next $2.5M, then a 50% prorated share for the final $1M
$500k + $1.25M + $0.25M
So he makes $2M, which actually happens to be the same full prorated amount (happy accident by me)

Where the owners really start saving money is for the $10M+ guys.

Jake Odorizzi - $17.8
$500k + (2.5M/2) + ($14.8/4) = ~$5.5M

I don't know how this idea compares to the ideas being thrown around by the owner or players, but it seems overall more owner friendly financially, while still remaining player friendly for those making less that $4M annually.

If that went to a vote from the full union, you'd have to think it would pass.
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#20 In My La-Z-boy

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Posted 12 June 2020 - 12:01 PM

 

We are going to have baseball, guys.If the owners and players can't come to agreement in the next week or so, Manfred will dictate an opening day of say July 20 and a 60+/- game season. ST2 will open about June 25.

 

Lots of established players will look at that and say not only no, but hell no to playing this year. The owners will have openings on their rosters and someone will fill them. Baseball will play with lots of AA, AAA and AAAA players filling out the rosters, earning the league minimum for 60 games...or about $200,000. With many of the more expensive players staying home, teams will break-even with many having payrolls of less than $20mm, not including the losses incurred earlier in the year.  

 

If I were an owner I just might see this as the best alternative available during a trying time. If I were a player, I would be upset by the likelihood that my career is loosing one full year of compensation with another hit likely coming in 2022. 

 

Those of us waiting to see players like Kirilloff and Larnach may get our wish a lot sooner than we think.

Manfred is talking big, but his eyes are bigger than his stomach. If this comes down to Manfred unilaterally imposing a deal, the game blows up. I wish he would stop saying this. I would think each teams leaders would "encourage" their respective 40 man teammates to stay home. Then what? 
I don't want to watch a shortened season with everyone's A ball players - which would lead to nothing but trouble for next year and the year after. Sad, but no season this year is better than no season for the next 2 years. This needs to get hammered out between the 2 parties. Manfred is not trusted by the players.