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Article: Building for the Future

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#31 mike wants wins

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 08:31 AM

How does signing players this year, to maybe contend stop them from building for the future? And, GMs are not in charge of the draft....they do trades and free agency. It isn't like if they cut payroll this year, they will use those dollars saved in a future year....

#32 ThePuck

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 08:46 AM

If you have a payroll of around 100 million dollars then you don't need to plan on contedning in 2015 you can contend now. Le Tigres who won only what 88 games this season signed Tori Hunter? Big wow. Tori Hunter got lucky on balls in play last year. His power is dimished and his Defense in RF isn't even average anymore. Maybe plus two wins for Le Tigres. The Twins could contend now with smart trades and a couple of free agent SP signings. You obviously want to be flexible for future years because what you have isn't a sure thing or even close to it. The Blue Jays went all in for this upcoming year. With the package they got which is close to 10 plus wins a year if healthy they went all in. The Twins don't need to do that but can contend in the AL Central with smart moves. Look at the Orioles, I'd argue the Twins are a better team with a couple of above average starters and luck thrown in.


Torii Hunter was rated as the 3rd best defensive RF in baseball this year...so he's much better than average out there in RF. They are also getting VMart back. The also played up to their ability in the 2nd half with a .579 winning %. Their 1-5 right now is AJax, Hunter, Cabrera, Fielder and VMart....much better than ours. Their first three pitchers all had ERA under 3.75.

They are way ahead of us.

#33 Shane Wahl

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 09:51 AM

There's like a million good things to respond to in this thread, so I am not going to try. I believe in going big or . . . going big. The safer go big scenario involves not trading anybody and just adding through free agency (two pitchers and maybe a bat to trade--still think if in 2012 D-Lee or Vlad had been given a chance, they could have traded them for something). The other go big scenario is to trade a BUNCH of guys on the Twins (Span, Morneau, Willingham, Doumit, and either Parmelee or Revere) for 5+ B or better prospects who are ready or close to ready. I think the former situation can get the Twins above .500. The latter situation would likely not produce more than 70 wins, but at least there would be interest in seeing a roster of 22-25-year olds with Mauer and Plouffe and a few other guys for a year.

#34 Shane Wahl

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 09:56 AM

I can assure you that for 2013 Torii Hunter > Chris Parmelee in RF (if that ridiculous scenario plays out), both defensively and offensively. The Tigers are WAY ahead of the Twins, unfortunately.

#35 Mr. Ed

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 10:27 AM

2015

Bleh, that's too far away. Get it together and get winning. Already wasted 2 years of everyone's time messing around.

#36 kab21

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 10:59 AM

I love it how some can't see any middle ground on this. This isn't a completely blow it up situation nor is it a go for it in 2013 situation. The focus should be on building a team that is peaking in 2015. The rotation is a mess and while it might be possible to completely rebuild it in one offseason through 3+ FA or trades the more realistic path will take a couple of years. They should be able to sign a FA this winter and it's sounds pretty likely that they can match up on a trade with TB/SEA/ATL/CIN/other for a young pitcher/prospect. There's also a chance they pick Appel/Manaea/Stanek/other in the draft in June. I know that a couple of teams have turned it around in one offseason but realistically it's going to take a couple of years (hopefully).

#37 LaBombo

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 11:04 AM

I'm not in awe of the Tigers. The White Sox could have easily won the division but went into a tailspin the last two weeks of season. The Tigers have two great players, Verlander and Cabrera, and a bunch of solid players surrounding them. Detroit is one bad hop (Cabrera taking one off the shins at 3B), and a sore shoulder (Verlander has logged a tremendous number of innings past 3 seasons) from being a .500 team with a bloated payrool. Twins need to upgrade pitching staff, period, get a little more production on offense, and they can make the division race interesting again.


If it turns out that the cornerstone of Terry Ryan's plan to have the Twins contend in 2013 involves crossing his fingers and hoping that two guys who NEVER get hurt...get hurt, well, then I would hope that even the loyal-to-the-point-of-idiocy Pohlads would show him the door, and punch him in the arm really, really hard on the way out.

And I'm a little hazy on your definition of "solid" players. To me that means guys who are average or a little better. Either the word has a vastly different meaning to you, or you're unaware of the fact that Fielder, Jackson, Avila, Scherzer, and Fister are All-Star caliber players. And Hunter and Martinez may not be All Stars anymore, but they're clearly still well above average. Current Twins staff 'ace' Scott Diamond would have to battle for the 5th spot in a Sanchez-less Tigers rotation, or toss long relief if they bring Anibal back. They left a reliever (Villarreal) off their postseason roster who could probably beat out Burton for the setup role if he were a Twin.

It's likely that the Twins will add a couple of starting pitchers in the offseason, and maybe a warm body in the middle infield or bullpen. They'll probably be better next year than they were this year or last. But if you seriously think that the Twins will contend for the division title by adding Joe Blanton, Jeremy Guthrie, and a big bag of Verlander and Cabrera voodoo dolls...well, good luck with that.

Edited by LaBombo, 16 November 2012 - 11:28 AM.


#38 Winston Smith

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 11:13 AM

Twinkies contracted there is no future!!

May all our prospects be All Stars and the beer be free.


#39 jtrinaldi

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 03:55 PM

the Twins are doing what they can to get by until 2015 and 2016.
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#40 ashburyjohn

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 06:09 PM

The future is now! Not in 2015 or the year 2525.


If man is still alive. If woman can survive.

Edited by ashburyjohn, 16 November 2012 - 06:11 PM.


#41 Physics Guy

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 06:43 PM

I agree on the middle ground, which I suspect is Ryan's position. We need to acquire several SP, but only ones who have the potential to be around in 2015. My hope is they sign Sanchez (only 28 years old) and trade for two young pitchers (Minor, Delgado, Hellickson, Paxton...). Those guys would make us better next year and get some experience for a run by 2015, maybe even 2014. The Twins should avoid any SP past his early thirties. I was pushing for Shields, but now I only think it makes sense if he will sign an extension. I don't want to see Willingham, Span or Morneau leave, but at least we have potential replacements for them. Without pitching we are just spinning our wheels towards another 60-70 win season.

#42 kab21

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Posted 17 November 2012 - 03:14 AM

I really don't understand this insistence that Shields needs to be signed to an extension if he's traded for. He's signed until he's 33. Players don't sign 1 yr extensions. He'll be looking for 3 more years particularly since he signed such a cheap deal the first time and this will be his only chance at a multi-year FA contract.

I think most likely the Twins try to get 1-2 of the prospects that the Reds/Braves/M's have to offer.

#43 TopGunn#22

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Posted 17 November 2012 - 08:47 AM

I agree with the dissent on the either/or position...meaning we either push all our chips to the middle of the table and try to compete next year or resign ourselves to 2015 or beyond. Clearly, the Tigers are better. SP 1-5 they are light years ahead of us. With V-Mart coming back, their lineup will probably be better. At the end of last year, I was not in favor of trading Willingham. Good grief, we needed power and he was it! That said, his value will never be higher and teams like the Braves and Rays have young pitching they would part with. Span's value also won't get much higher. With a surplus of young outfield talent in the minors the Twins can make moves that will improve the team for next year and also build for the future. What would our outlook on the Twins be had THEY made the deal with Miami and not Toronto? We'd have a star shortstop who would fill our leadoff spot, two solid starting pitchers to go with Diamond and an outfielder in Bonifacio that would have stepped in to LF paving the way for a Willingham trade. We have some tradeable assets, the question is how do we use them and how aggressive will be be? Will the best options be gone before we pull the trigger or will waiting improve our leverage. (This is by far the best site to keep up on the Twins with the best bunch of guys sharing their opinion).

#44 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 17 November 2012 - 09:18 AM

Here's the problem. The team's needs now (starting pitching and MI help) will still likely exist in 2015. There's some potential for some help up the middle in the farm system for 2015, but not nearly enough pitching. Essentially that means that they are going to have to make some smart free agent pitching signs over the next two years regardless. I don't know which pitchers are FAs for 2014 and for 2015, but the bottom line is that if they want to be competitive in 2015, that problem is still going to have to be addressed.

#45 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 17 November 2012 - 10:42 AM

Here's the problem. The team's needs now (starting pitching and MI help) will still likely exist in 2015. There's some potential for some help up the middle in the farm system for 2015, but not nearly enough pitching. Essentially that means that they are going to have to make some smart free agent pitching signs over the next two years regardless. I don't know which pitchers are FAs for 2014 and for 2015, but the bottom line is that if they want to be competitive in 2015, that problem is still going to have to be addressed.


Bingo.

#46 ashburyjohn

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Posted 17 November 2012 - 01:42 PM

Here's the problem. The team's needs now (starting pitching and MI help) will still likely exist in 2015. There's some potential for some help up the middle in the farm system for 2015, but not nearly enough pitching. Essentially that means that they are going to have to make some smart free agent pitching signs over the next two years regardless. I don't know which pitchers are FAs for 2014 and for 2015, but the bottom line is that if they want to be competitive in 2015, that problem is still going to have to be addressed.


I think this is obviously correct, but leaves unstated there are multiple routes to go regarding free agency. We can aim for FA talent who will still be prime contributors to a pennant-winning 2015 squad. Or, we can obtain younger talent by some other route (trades, mainly, if prime talent is the aim) who won't be ready until 2015, and use FA to supplement the 2013-4 squads so that further loss in the fan base can be avoided and let those contracts run out when the young'uns are scheduled to arrive. (A combination of these two approaches is quite viable, of course.) Also, as you allude, it's not necessary to completely stock up for 2015 this winter, so it can be phased over the coming three offseasons - there is not much value in paying prime talent for 2013, in and of itself. I trust that Terry Ryan has the long term plan in place (longer than 2015, naturally), and it will be interesting to watch the deals as they unfold. Stopgap moves by themselves are not a cause for despair - that is basically what Ryan accomplished last winter and they were necessary. What would be deadly is if the only moves going forward look like stopgaps to get us to 2015, without the moves that actually pertain to success in 2015 and beyond.

#47 Teddy

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Posted 17 November 2012 - 02:55 PM

It's going to take Terry Ryan and company time to clean up the mess that he inherited from Bill Smith's regime. It was a different philosophy with Smith in charge, and it didn't work, and now they're going back to building the farm system, focusing on instruction and fundamentals. Sadly, the big-league club needs as much work on fundamentals as the Rookie-leaguers.

#48 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 17 November 2012 - 03:10 PM

Here's the problem. The team's needs now (starting pitching and MI help) will still likely exist in 2015. There's some potential for some help up the middle in the farm system for 2015, but not nearly enough pitching. Essentially that means that they are going to have to make some smart free agent pitching signs over the next two years regardless. I don't know which pitchers are FAs for 2014 and for 2015, but the bottom line is that if they want to be competitive in 2015, that problem is still going to have to be addressed.


I don't know... Depending on how this past draft pans out, the team could look pretty good in pitching prospects (or at least adequate).

But... you can never have too much pitching.

#49 Willihammer

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Posted 19 November 2012 - 12:42 PM

Good article by Dave Cameron on fangraphs today. "Why I'm not a fan of losing on purpose."

I see this argument a lot as it pertains to teams like the Mets, with valuable walk-year veterans in R.A. Dickey and David Wright. We saw it last year when the A’s signed Coco Crisp to play center field. The perceived value of putting a respectable team on the field is quite low, but as the A’s showed last year, the actual value of doing just that can be extremely high. We simply don’t know enough about the future to say that Dickey and Wright aren’t going to be part of the next competitive Mets team. We do not have the forecasting capabilities to look at a 75 win team and tell them that they can’t be a 90 win team in the following year.

There’s too much variation in baseball for teams to simply accept their most recent record as evidence of their short term future.