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Article: Building for the Future

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#21 SeanS7921

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 01:25 PM

If you have a payroll of around 100 million dollars then you don't need to plan on contedning in 2015 you can contend now. Le Tigres who won only what 88 games this season signed Tori Hunter? Big wow. Tori Hunter got lucky on balls in play last year. His power is dimished and his Defense in RF isn't even average anymore. Maybe plus two wins for Le Tigres. The Twins could contend now with smart trades and a couple of free agent SP signings. You obviously want to be flexible for future years because what you have isn't a sure thing or even close to it. The Blue Jays went all in for this upcoming year. With the package they got which is close to 10 plus wins a year if healthy they went all in. The Twins don't need to do that but can contend in the AL Central with smart moves. Look at the Orioles, I'd argue the Twins are a better team with a couple of above average starters and luck thrown in.

#22 Kwak

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 01:45 PM

If the Twins plan on rebuilding through trades--start now! IMO there is no realistic scenario where the Twins are a playoff team in 2013. It would be far better to trade nearly all of the ML talent now, lose 120, and get serious about rebuilding. Consider how wretched DET was in 2003--and now they rule the division and likely are the favorite for the AL pennant in 2013. Their owner spent money--but they also drafted well, and they made shrewd trades. The Twins need not repeat the long drought of the '90s in order to rebuild for the next decade.

#23 sorney

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 01:56 PM

Succumbing to a 2 year rebuilding plan means wasting the last few years of Mauer's prime.
Mauer is supposed to be a player to build around. Don't waste what's left of his prime rebuilding.

#24 Linus

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 09:30 PM

Great post, but I can't get on board with the approach if the front office refuses to aknowledge a rebuild is underway. They had the chance to trade vets for prospects this year and failed to drum up enough interest to do so despite rumors about Span, Morneau, Willingham and Perkins. All they managed to do was bungle the timing on the Liriano trade. Hard to trust that there is an actual gameplan right now, I'm riding the opinion that they're just winging it at this point until there is evidence to the contrary.


So you really think TR, who has won multiple "executive of the year" awards is just sitting around waiting for things to happen and see if guys fall in his lap? Some of the posts here just don't make sense. I understand being impatient for the plan to unfold but people just have to wait a second before they cast judgment.

Seth, you are a great blogger but the idea that signing torii should make the Twins fold up their tent and go home is just dumb. The truth is the Twins should have a similar goal whether they are building for next year or 2014 or 15 - add quality, longer term pitching. To think they are going to trade off all their assets for prospects and they will be all better in 2014 is tenuous at best since they have exactly one in house pitching prospect (Hermsonn) at AA or above.

They could trade away all available assets, miss on their assessment and end up with nothing. Anybody remember the Stahoviak / Becker years? They need quality, young(er) pitching: this year, next year 2015 and beyond. If they don't solve that, Hicks, Arcia et al will not make a difference.

#25 Riverbrian

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 09:59 PM

Great post, but I can't get on board with the approach if the front office refuses to aknowledge a rebuild is underway. They had the chance to trade vets for prospects this year and failed to drum up enough interest to do so despite rumors about Span, Morneau, Willingham and Perkins. All they managed to do was bungle the timing on the Liriano trade. Hard to trust that there is an actual gameplan right now, I'm riding the opinion that they're just winging it at this point until there is evidence to the contrary.


So you really think TR, who has won multiple "executive of the year" awards is just sitting around waiting for things to happen and see if guys fall in his lap? Some of the posts here just don't make sense. I understand being impatient for the plan to unfold but people just have to wait a second before they cast judgment.

Seth, you are a great blogger but the idea that signing torii should make the Twins fold up their tent and go home is just dumb. The truth is the Twins should have a similar goal whether they are building for next year or 2014 or 15 - add quality, longer term pitching. To think they are going to trade off all their assets for prospects and they will be all better in 2014 is tenuous at best since they have exactly one in house pitching prospect (Hermsonn) at AA or above.

They could trade away all available assets, miss on their assessment and end up with nothing. Anybody remember the Stahoviak / Becker years? They need quality, young(er) pitching: this year, next year 2015 and beyond. If they don't solve that, Hicks, Arcia et al will not make a difference.


+12

#26 TopGunn#22

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 10:22 PM

Great post, great comments. My 2-cents...I think trading Willingham to the Braves for young starting pitching (Hanson, Minor, Teheran, Delgado) and Span and a prospect to Tampa for Shields or Hellickson is a start. A big question to answer is what prospect in the package for Shields/Hellickson and what prospect with Willingham if we asked for 2 Braves pitchers instead of one. Still, you could conceivably have Sheilds/Hellickson at the top of your rotation with 1 or 2 of the Braves young starters and Scott Diamond in your rotation and you haven't spent a dime in free agency. Maybe you add an Edwin Jackson or Brandon McCarthy as a FA. Your starting pitching is MUCH better. Gibson is a possibility in June. If you kept Morneau that would put Parmalee in RF. You need a LF'er. Hicks is not even a consideration until at least July. But a team that could pitch like that could compete with a little luck in 2013 (and face it, most every team needs a little luck). It would certainly be set up to compete in 2014 with prospects like Arcia, Hicks, Gibson, Hendricks etc...a year older.

SP Shields, Minor, E. Jackson, Diamond (Delgado/Gibson)

CF Revere
2B Carrol
C Mauer
1B Morneau
DH Doumitt
RF Parmalee
3B Plouffe
LF ??? (Arcia?)
SS Florimon/Dozier
The lineup isn't as strong but the pitching staff is built to keep you in games.

#27 Heinie Manush

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 10:36 PM

At 1:23 Rosterman posted some information the leads me to the single most important reason why we are in the mess we're in. Look at the 2008-2010 drafts and you will see 10 pitchers drafted with in the first 100 or so picks. Of these 7 have washed out and two others have had arm surgery. Only Gibson seems a lock to be a solid or better major leaguer. Horrible drafting and training or extremely bad luck? I lean toward the former.

#28 beckmt

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 11:23 PM

This is a fine line. We need pitching, pitching and more pitching. Model has changed in the past 3 - 4 years as most clubs now are very reluctant to give up pitching prospects without being overpaid for them. None of the twins players available will bring more than a B prospect. Rays, Atlanta and Seattle along with Oakland have the excess pitching. I would prefer to deal with the Rays as we have 2 players they should be interested in (Span and Parmalee) and 8 possible starters to trade. Brave and Seattle pitchers are more risky unless Seattle will give up one of their top prospects (would probably require Willingham +) mlbtraderumors commented today that Seattle could be in on Hamilton(that would cost only money, but is an unlikely destination). Twins need to more at a faster pace or this market could pass them by. If TR decides to wait, I only hope it is the correct move and we are not looking at the dregs of the barrel.

#29 old nurse

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 06:56 AM

" Nothing in return for the other guys.
!


Is there a selective lack of knowledge here? Players traded for other pieces that begat other pieces.
Players left by free agency. Jesse Crain had a career year in his last year. Signed elsewhere because he wanted to be a closer. The Twins got a draft pick.
Baker left and the Twins got nothing. What possible scenario could have the Twins ever received compensation for Baker ?
Yes Ryan did not always produce the most talent from the drafts yet he found talent off the other rosters. Examples in Ryan's late tenure before vacation moves were 2 minor league players became Luis Castillo and Buck Buchanan became Jason Barlett. Matt Gueirrier was a waiver pickup.The cupboard was not bare in 2007 when Ryan retired

#30 Cody Christie

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 07:13 AM

The Twins aren't going to be fighting for a playoff spot next season. It makes sense to build for the future.

#31 Mike Sixel

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 08:31 AM

How does signing players this year, to maybe contend stop them from building for the future? And, GMs are not in charge of the draft....they do trades and free agency. It isn't like if they cut payroll this year, they will use those dollars saved in a future year....

#32 ThePuck

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 08:46 AM

If you have a payroll of around 100 million dollars then you don't need to plan on contedning in 2015 you can contend now. Le Tigres who won only what 88 games this season signed Tori Hunter? Big wow. Tori Hunter got lucky on balls in play last year. His power is dimished and his Defense in RF isn't even average anymore. Maybe plus two wins for Le Tigres. The Twins could contend now with smart trades and a couple of free agent SP signings. You obviously want to be flexible for future years because what you have isn't a sure thing or even close to it. The Blue Jays went all in for this upcoming year. With the package they got which is close to 10 plus wins a year if healthy they went all in. The Twins don't need to do that but can contend in the AL Central with smart moves. Look at the Orioles, I'd argue the Twins are a better team with a couple of above average starters and luck thrown in.


Torii Hunter was rated as the 3rd best defensive RF in baseball this year...so he's much better than average out there in RF. They are also getting VMart back. The also played up to their ability in the 2nd half with a .579 winning %. Their 1-5 right now is AJax, Hunter, Cabrera, Fielder and VMart....much better than ours. Their first three pitchers all had ERA under 3.75.

They are way ahead of us.

#33 Shane Wahl

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 09:51 AM

There's like a million good things to respond to in this thread, so I am not going to try. I believe in going big or . . . going big. The safer go big scenario involves not trading anybody and just adding through free agency (two pitchers and maybe a bat to trade--still think if in 2012 D-Lee or Vlad had been given a chance, they could have traded them for something). The other go big scenario is to trade a BUNCH of guys on the Twins (Span, Morneau, Willingham, Doumit, and either Parmelee or Revere) for 5+ B or better prospects who are ready or close to ready. I think the former situation can get the Twins above .500. The latter situation would likely not produce more than 70 wins, but at least there would be interest in seeing a roster of 22-25-year olds with Mauer and Plouffe and a few other guys for a year.

#34 Shane Wahl

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 09:56 AM

I can assure you that for 2013 Torii Hunter > Chris Parmelee in RF (if that ridiculous scenario plays out), both defensively and offensively. The Tigers are WAY ahead of the Twins, unfortunately.

#35 Mr. Ed

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 10:27 AM

2015

Bleh, that's too far away. Get it together and get winning. Already wasted 2 years of everyone's time messing around.

#36 kab21

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 10:59 AM

I love it how some can't see any middle ground on this. This isn't a completely blow it up situation nor is it a go for it in 2013 situation. The focus should be on building a team that is peaking in 2015. The rotation is a mess and while it might be possible to completely rebuild it in one offseason through 3+ FA or trades the more realistic path will take a couple of years. They should be able to sign a FA this winter and it's sounds pretty likely that they can match up on a trade with TB/SEA/ATL/CIN/other for a young pitcher/prospect. There's also a chance they pick Appel/Manaea/Stanek/other in the draft in June. I know that a couple of teams have turned it around in one offseason but realistically it's going to take a couple of years (hopefully).

#37 LaBombo

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 11:04 AM

I'm not in awe of the Tigers. The White Sox could have easily won the division but went into a tailspin the last two weeks of season. The Tigers have two great players, Verlander and Cabrera, and a bunch of solid players surrounding them. Detroit is one bad hop (Cabrera taking one off the shins at 3B), and a sore shoulder (Verlander has logged a tremendous number of innings past 3 seasons) from being a .500 team with a bloated payrool. Twins need to upgrade pitching staff, period, get a little more production on offense, and they can make the division race interesting again.


If it turns out that the cornerstone of Terry Ryan's plan to have the Twins contend in 2013 involves crossing his fingers and hoping that two guys who NEVER get hurt...get hurt, well, then I would hope that even the loyal-to-the-point-of-idiocy Pohlads would show him the door, and punch him in the arm really, really hard on the way out.

And I'm a little hazy on your definition of "solid" players. To me that means guys who are average or a little better. Either the word has a vastly different meaning to you, or you're unaware of the fact that Fielder, Jackson, Avila, Scherzer, and Fister are All-Star caliber players. And Hunter and Martinez may not be All Stars anymore, but they're clearly still well above average. Current Twins staff 'ace' Scott Diamond would have to battle for the 5th spot in a Sanchez-less Tigers rotation, or toss long relief if they bring Anibal back. They left a reliever (Villarreal) off their postseason roster who could probably beat out Burton for the setup role if he were a Twin.

It's likely that the Twins will add a couple of starting pitchers in the offseason, and maybe a warm body in the middle infield or bullpen. They'll probably be better next year than they were this year or last. But if you seriously think that the Twins will contend for the division title by adding Joe Blanton, Jeremy Guthrie, and a big bag of Verlander and Cabrera voodoo dolls...well, good luck with that.

Edited by LaBombo, 16 November 2012 - 11:28 AM.


#38 Winston Smith

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 11:13 AM

Twinkies contracted there is no future!!

If you don't know where you are going, you might wind up someplace else.

 

Yogi Berra


#39 jtrinaldi

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 03:55 PM

the Twins are doing what they can to get by until 2015 and 2016.
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#40 ashburyjohn

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 06:09 PM

The future is now! Not in 2015 or the year 2525.


If man is still alive. If woman can survive.

Edited by ashburyjohn, 16 November 2012 - 06:11 PM.