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Anibal looking for 6/90

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#21 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 10 November 2012 - 12:41 AM

The difference between pitching in the AL and pitching in the NL is the designated hitter.

One out of roughly every 9 hitters is different. Instead of pitching to a pitcher, you're pitching to an actual hitter. In some cases, a very good hitter. (It's not actually 1 of every 9, since sometimes the pitcher is pinch hit for in the NL, making the difference a little less that 1 in 9.)

If you look at history, it works out to something around 0.25 of ERA, although the gap has been trending down for a while now.

It's a factor, but not that much of one. And in any case, since we're talking about different run environments in the different leagues, how a pitcher compares to the other pitchers in his own league is way more important than how he compares to pitchers in the other league.

On average, every pitcher will give up more runs in the AL than if he were in the NL. It doesn't matter, since you're only trying to beat the teams in your own league for a playoff spot, and their pitchers will be pitching against mostly AL teams as well. What matters is how a pitcher compares to the pitchers in his own league.

Add a quarter of a run to a guys ERA if he's coming over from the NL as some sort of "close enough WAG", and then decide what that's worth.

Edited by USAFChief, 10 November 2012 - 12:43 AM.


#22 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 10 November 2012 - 01:06 AM

Without researching it, the number seems like it'd be higher than .25 runs. But I don't think it's enough to make or break a guy like Sanchez. League doesn't matter; the guy is simply not worth that kind of money.

#23 iastfan112

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Posted 10 November 2012 - 01:34 AM

Without researching it, the number seems like it'd be higher than .25 runs. But I don't think it's enough to make or break a guy like Sanchez. League doesn't matter; the guy is simply not worth that kind of money.


15 million per year isn't that outrageous, he's been roughly 4 win player for the past 3 years and is under the age of 30 so aging isn't a huge factor. However, I don't see 6 years happening f non ace, much less a guy with Sanchez's injury history.

#24 kab21

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Posted 10 November 2012 - 01:43 AM

Without researching it, the number seems like it'd be higher than .25 runs. But I don't think it's enough to make or break a guy like Sanchez. League doesn't matter; the guy is simply not worth that kind of money.


The main takeaway assuming you are talking about the overall dollars due to 6 years. In the best case he'll earn the contract but most likely he'll disappoint.

#25 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 10 November 2012 - 10:59 AM

Yeah, talking overall dollars due to length of contract, not the per year rate.

#26 johnnydakota

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Posted 10 November 2012 - 11:21 AM

you remembering to factor in salary inflation?and remember we are paying blackburn 5.5 not to pitch?but totaly agree that its the lenght of the contract maybe needs to be 4 years with vesting for year 5 and 6? but signing sanchez and trading for shields is a great start to building a rotation if you ask me

#27 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 10 November 2012 - 01:10 PM

Without researching it, the number seems like it'd be higher than .25 runs. But I don't think it's enough to make or break a guy like Sanchez. League doesn't matter; the guy is simply not worth that kind of money.


"Worth it" is sort of in the eye of the beholder. It's likely few, if any, FA pitchers will end up actually worth the money, particularly those on the higher end of the ability scale.

If "worth that kind of money" is the criteria, then we all need to accept the fact the Twins aren't going to sign anything outside of low risk, low reward scrap heap lotto tickets.

I doubt Sanchez is going to get 6 years guaranteed, but if that's the price, either compete in that arena or quit pretending you're interested in exploring all options to improve your rotation. Sanchez would likely be the opening day starter for the Twins in 2013. That's the very definition of improving your rotation.

#28 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 10 November 2012 - 01:26 PM

Without researching it, the number seems like it'd be higher than .25 runs. But I don't think it's enough to make or break a guy like Sanchez. League doesn't matter; the guy is simply not worth that kind of money.


"Worth it" is sort of in the eye of the beholder. It's likely few, if any, FA pitchers will end up actually worth the money, particularly those on the higher end of the ability scale.

If "worth that kind of money" is the criteria, then we all need to accept the fact the Twins aren't going to sign anything outside of low risk, low reward scrap heap lotto tickets.

I doubt Sanchez is going to get 6 years guaranteed, but if that's the price, either compete in that arena or quit pretending you're interested in exploring all options to improve your rotation. Sanchez would likely be the opening day starter for the Twins in 2013. That's the very definition of improving your rotation.


I guess it wouldn't hurt to throw out a 4/$52m offer but it probably wouldn't get you far.

Anything over 4/$60m does too much long term damage to payroll. It doesn't make sense for the Twins to be playing in that arena.

#29 Seth Stohs

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Posted 10 November 2012 - 01:36 PM

Anibal Sanchez is the guy I've had a free agent man-crush on for the entire season. As John pointed out, when we put this together, we thought 4 years, $44 million was a good number. I'd be very comfortable with that. Also, he is one of the young free agents, so I would have no problem going to 5 years with him. I'd throw him a 5 year, $55-60 million offer. Dude is terrific. I'd MUCH rather have him than Greinke over the next five years.

#30 kab21

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Posted 11 November 2012 - 08:36 PM

I guess it wouldn't hurt to throw out a 4/$52m offer but it probably wouldn't get you far.

Anything over 4/$60m does too much long term damage to payroll. It doesn't make sense for the Twins to be playing in that arena.


If the Twins do that then I'll have to read more about 'how the Twins were interested...'

#31 notoriousgod71

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Posted 11 November 2012 - 09:39 PM

Not that I care if we sign Sanchez or not but eventually they're going to have to just realize that in order to get good pitchers you're going to have to pay high salaries. We have seen what a mess this team is when they go cheap on the rotation.

#32 glunn

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Posted 12 November 2012 - 12:33 AM

Not that I care if we sign Sanchez or not but eventually they're going to have to just realize that in order to get good pitchers you're going to have to pay high salaries. We have seen what a mess this team is when they go cheap on the rotation.


Or they can develop prospects and trade for more prospects and make us wait a few years before they become competitive.

#33 DaveW

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Posted 12 November 2012 - 02:55 AM

Not that I care if we sign Sanchez or not but eventually they're going to have to just realize that in order to get good pitchers you're going to have to pay high salaries. We have seen what a mess this team is when they go cheap on the rotation.


Your best bet is to draft well, or trade for a top pitching prospect, then lock him up while he is still under team control. (see: Kershaw, Verlander, Cain, Felix, etc etc) It seems like the teams overpaying out the ass for starting pitching on the market tend to get burned more then they get rewarded.

#34 ltwedt

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Posted 12 November 2012 - 08:48 AM

Geez - He's looking for 6/$90??? Yeah, well - People in hell are looking for ice water, too. But . . . maybe . . . just maybe if there are others who make deasl like the one we made with Blackie, or The Lemon it could happen!

#35 Rosterman

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Posted 12 November 2012 - 10:20 AM

Just think what Francisco Liriano would be looking for if he had actually put together 8-10 really great starts for the White Sox instead of what he did.

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#36 notoriousgod71

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Posted 12 November 2012 - 06:06 PM

Not that I care if we sign Sanchez or not but eventually they're going to have to just realize that in order to get good pitchers you're going to have to pay high salaries. We have seen what a mess this team is when they go cheap on the rotation.


Or they can develop prospects and trade for more prospects and make us wait a few years before they become competitive.


The Twins are pretty good at that.

#37 Top Gun

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Posted 12 November 2012 - 08:07 PM

We can not wait, we have to pay the price for a top 5 FA pitcher now, or the team will be shot for the next 3 years.

#38 johnnydakota

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Posted 12 November 2012 - 08:13 PM

Not that I care if we sign Sanchez or not but eventually they're going to have to just realize that in order to get good pitchers you're going to have to pay high salaries. We have seen what a mess this team is when they go cheap on the rotation.


Your best bet is to draft well, or trade for a top pitching prospect, then lock him up while he is still under team control. (see: Kershaw, Verlander, Cain, Felix, etc etc) It seems like the teams overpaying out the ass for starting pitching on the market tend to get burned more then they get rewarded.


baker,blackburn , and slowey?

#39 johnnydakota

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Posted 12 November 2012 - 08:15 PM

just a thought , but if the mets are looking to dump salary , why not trade hermsen and boyd for santana and 15 million?

#40 notoriousgod71

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Posted 12 November 2012 - 10:14 PM

just a thought , but if the mets are looking to dump salary , why not trade hermsen and boyd for santana and 15 million?


Guerra for Santana would be sweetly ironic.