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Player Opt-outs

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#1 Trov

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Posted 13 May 2020 - 10:51 AM

While we think about if a season happens or not.I started thinking about the opt out clauses by players, and what they will do.I tried to do the research, but did not find much to get exact numbers, but believe most players will typically opt out of deals.So many over the past decade would sign the big seven plus year deal with a three or four year opt out.Many would opt out giving up money betting on fact they can earn more over that same period or at least get deeper into thirties and secure money.

 

However, with so many questions of what future looks for not just this season but seasons to come for full ballparks.This will vastly affect the budgets for teams and how much they will pay players.If games need to be played at 0 or half capacity, that will cut what teams earn.Teams never expected something like this so it was not planned into future budgets.So how will that affect teams on what they will be willing to pay?I bet at least for next year or two much less long term deals and much less money attached.  

 

What that means is I expect the three players with opt out clause will opt in, or I would advise them too.Stanton, Martinez, and Castillanos all have options to opt out.Castillanos is and odd one as he signed a long term deal with a quick opt out, so not much historical data on how that would come out in normal year, and it would most likely depend on how his season went.  

 

Lets assume he does well, if a season is played.I would still argue he should stay with contract.He would have three years and 42 million left.I doubt any team would be willing to take on that much risk at this time if there is a chance states will not allow parks to get filled.  

 

Martinez had opted in last year and I bet he would have chose to stay with current contract, as last time he was FA Boston was only team really bidding.  

 

Stanton he would be the real question.He signed a huge deal that had he performed at his normal level he would opt out in a heart beat and sign an even bigger deal, but he has been injured a lot.Also, he has seven years and 214 million left.I strongly doubt he would get a 7 year 214 million deal next off-season. 

 

Similarly, I wonder how many teams will give qualifying offer and how many players would take it.For years players turned them down, until recently.I think very few teams will extend one and just hope to sign player, and I think if extended many players would take them.As stated I doubt few long term deals will be reached when projected budgets will be hard to factor in.Along same lines not many other teams will be willing to give up draft capital if the draft gets limited again to 5 or 10 rounds as has been discussed. 

 

Overall, I expect some interesting decisions for players and teams when it comes to long term deals over the next season or two. 

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#2 In My La-Z-boy

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Posted 13 May 2020 - 12:02 PM

I doubt you'll see any opt-outs, and free agents this winter will be greatly disadvantaged due to the lack of owner revenues in 2020 and potential collective bargaining trouble in 2022. Hindsight is easy but holy cow did Jeter fleece the Yanks - Marlins escaped that one. Yankees wish he'd opt out no doubt.


#3 DocBauer

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Posted 13 May 2020 - 05:28 PM

I would also doubt many players opt out after missing out so much time and money this year, especially with the possibility of a work stoppage when the next collective bargaining session begins. After the 2021 season if memory serves.

And with that potential dark cloud hanging over things, and with all the lost revenue from this year, I'm also thinking FA will be looked at very differently next year in regard to years and dollars.

Let's use Odorizzi as an example. He's about $18M this season with the QO, but prorated now to whatever degree ends up happening. He was never going to get $25M if he goes the FA route next year. But he might have received $18-20M per, or just slightly north. But now? Considering he likes being a Twin and has been open to an extension, he might be much more inclined to stay "home" with the Twins for 3yrs and around $15-16M per.

There is no way this doesn't end up affecting the market next offseason.
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#4 biggentleben

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 08:30 PM

 

There is no way this doesn't end up affecting the market next offseason.

...and this is already being figured by players union folks, which is simply another brick in the wall between players and owners.

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#5 Trov

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Posted 08 June 2020 - 11:53 AM

Yes, when I started the post it was before the back and forth of the players and owners of recent. I think FA will be very interesting next year.I bet only a couple of super stars get long term contracts.Both for the players and owners point of view.Too much up in the air for next season.I almost wonder, if teams will look for back loaded contracts, something that never happens normally in baseball, but having like a 5 year deal with first 2 years short pay, to protect teams and cash flow, and then later years make up for it.  


#6 Doctor Gast

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Posted 09 June 2020 - 03:02 PM

I was thinking about Arenado but yeah, I don`t think anyone will opt out, baseball doesn`t look so good. Players like Arenado, who might`ve been looking for a better chance at a WS team, will decide to have that stable pay check instead of all that glory  


#7 cardsfan

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Posted 22 June 2020 - 08:14 AM

I am almost positive that some bad or expensive contracts my team has if season is canceled benefits the team. Like one less year of Fowler, $20 million for an old Molina, Matt Carpenter hitting .226, Paul G, age 32 and 287 days now, hitting .260 and .821 OPS while getting a $130 million contract starting this year, our Miles Mikolas age 31 and 304 days getting $68 million for 4 years starting this year with a 9-14 record on a 91 win team beating out the Cubs last year, an old Andrew Miller with a high ERA won't get $11 million this year and won't meet requirements to get extension next year. Our Brett Cecil who got a 4 year contract in which he has missed all last year, 6.89 ERA in 2018 and awful in 2017 ain't getting paid for year four very much. And this is the last year of Mike Leake's contract that we had to pay Seattle $4 million to take the contract away.

You think your manager got AL manager think of the contract disasters we had with no losing records since 2007. Our manager has to deal with disappointments, but, we have our young pitchers. He got NL manager of the year.

#8 Vanimal46

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Posted 29 June 2020 - 12:25 PM

Diamondbacks pitcher Mike Leake is the first MLB player to opt out of playing this season. 

 

https://www.mlbtrade...s-covid-19.html


#9 Vanimal46

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Posted 29 June 2020 - 01:20 PM



The flood gates are opening.
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#10 woolywoolhouse

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Posted 29 June 2020 - 02:04 PM

Were Zimmerman and Ross listed on the Nationals' 60-man roster? Was/is there a deadline for players to opt-out before they cannot opt out contract-wise? Or are they able to at any point say they're not going to play any more this season?

 

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#11 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 29 June 2020 - 02:29 PM

 



The flood gates are opening.

 

3 out of 1800 is less than 2 tenths of 1 percent of all players.Let's hold off on calling it a flood until at least a couple of players per team have opted out.


#12 SQUIRREL

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Posted 29 June 2020 - 02:40 PM

 



The flood gates are opening.

lol ... if the starting trickle is a flood ... a wee bit of hyperbole ... but ... don't know what this leak will become. :)

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#13 notoriousgod71

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Posted 29 June 2020 - 04:52 PM

 

lol ... if the starting trickle is a flood ... a wee bit of hyperbole ... but ... don't know what this leak will become. :)

Yep!


#14 Trov

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Posted 30 June 2020 - 12:28 PM

Interesting the forum was about the players that had opt out clauses in their contracts at end of season, but now has transformed to players opting out of this season.So lets pivot.Ian Desmond also stated he would opt out.I think the players that will take this route will for two reasons.Either, they have a real worry of catching and spreading COVID, or ones that feel it will hurt them long term financially for only 37% of what they were expecting to make, with the risk of COVID as well. 

 

There may be additional reasons that I cannot think of.I doubt many young guys will opt out, unless they meet high risk category to get service time and pay.Giving up a year of service time is a huge deal these days, so unless he feels very strongly against playing during COVID issues i doubt anyone waiting on service clock will opt out.I doubt the very high paid superstars under long term deals will opt out, again unless they meet the high risk category.Even at 37% that is a lot of money to turn down. 

 

The players I could see the most likely are the old vets on not high pays, especially ones that have earned a lot in career.Also, the guys set for FA, assuming no need for service time, and they are not making high amounts.The risk of getting injury or having a poor season could cost him millions in future signing.

 

However, what complicates issues is not knowing what long term deals may be reached this year.I doubt other than a very select few, like Mookie Betts, will get large long term deals.The middle of the road guys that would normally get 3 to 4 year deals will most likely only be offered 1 year deals at low values next year.I am no GM or insider, just my guess based on current trends.  


#15 The Wise One

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Posted 30 June 2020 - 01:07 PM

 

Interesting the forum was about the players that had opt out clauses in their contracts at end of season, but now has transformed to players opting out of this season.So lets pivot.Ian Desmond also stated he would opt out.I think the players that will take this route will for two reasons.Either, they have a real worry of catching and spreading COVID, or ones that feel it will hurt them long term financially for only 37% of what they were expecting to make, with the risk of COVID as well. 

 

There may be additional reasons that I cannot think of.I doubt many young guys will opt out, unless they meet high risk category to get service time and pay.Giving up a year of service time is a huge deal these days, so unless he feels very strongly against playing during COVID issues i doubt anyone waiting on service clock will opt out.I doubt the very high paid superstars under long term deals will opt out, again unless they meet the high risk category.Even at 37% that is a lot of money to turn down. 

 

The players I could see the most likely are the old vets on not high pays, especially ones that have earned a lot in career.Also, the guys set for FA, assuming no need for service time, and they are not making high amounts.The risk of getting injury or having a poor season could cost him millions in future signing.

 

However, what complicates issues is not knowing what long term deals may be reached this year.I doubt other than a very select few, like Mookie Betts, will get large long term deals.The middle of the road guys that would normally get 3 to 4 year deals will most likely only be offered 1 year deals at low values next year.I am no GM or insider, just my guess based on current trends.  

The sitting out so far and the effect it will have

Ian Desmond will never get another contract. 

Mike Leake may lose out on 13 million less whatever a team signs him for

Ryan Zimmerman's contract is irreverent to this year.He also has a legitimate reason for not playing.

Joe Ross loses service time. It would debatable if he hurts himself with a year of rest or helps himself. 

 

The reality is as front offices plays closer attention to metrics, the above average player to just below average player are going to be hurt more by the metrics than the short season.


#16 Trov

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Posted 30 June 2020 - 01:32 PM

 

The sitting out so far and the effect it will have

Ian Desmond will never get another contract. 

Mike Leake may lose out on 13 million less whatever a team signs him for

Ryan Zimmerman's contract is irreverent to this year.He also has a legitimate reason for not playing.

Joe Ross loses service time. It would debatable if he hurts himself with a year of rest or helps himself. 

 

The reality is as front offices plays closer attention to metrics, the above average player to just below average player are going to be hurt more by the metrics than the short season.

You kind of pointed out what I was saying.Desmond vet missing out on 5.5 mil this year, but still will make 23 mil over next two years then will be 37(edit) there is team option for 15 mil on last season, with 2 mil buyout so only will get 10 more million if team does not pick up last year.Unlikely to get new deal after that.He can opt out this year, say I will play next year, if he gets cut still gets his cash.Zim, is vet making little to no money this year compared to what he made in past.  

 

Ross most likely has serious concerns over COVID.He will miss time, but still will be on this side of 30 before he is FA.He is taking bigger financial risk by sitting out than other two.Leake, is the most interesting for me.He is passing on 5.5 mil, unlikely to get another big deal in his career based on age and current economics.Therefore, I believe he most likely feesl strong about COVID as well, and feels he has made enough in his career.He may get a contract next year, and could even argue since he sat he is fresh.He has long enough career numbers to build off of for next season to fight for his money.However, if he played and played poorly, it would be used against him, but if he performed well it is unlikely he would be reward for it.