Posted 07 November 2012 - 03:47 PM
How would you feel about the Twins signing Guthrie to the amount that is in the Handbook: 2-years/$16M. (Let's ignore, for now, that he thinks he's going to get 3/34, for the purposes of this discussion.) Here's his baseball-reference page. Here's his Fan Graphs page.
On the one hand, he's pretty consistently thrown about 200 innings per season with an ERA usually around 4. (Since 2007, when started in the majors full time, his ERA is 4.03 IF you throw out his crappy stint in COL last season.)
On the other hand, he's 33 years old and his career strikeout rate is 5.4 K/9. His career xFIP is 4.63.
I would welcome him at that Handbook's price. I would not welcome him at the price he's looking for. I understand the concern about his "stuff." But I think there's room for an inning eater on this staff.
Posted 07 November 2012 - 04:04 PM
No doubt, he's not the strikeout pitcher all of us would like. However, he is a hard thrower...maybe hardest throwing starter the Twins have had since Frankie's 06 season. His 92.8mph FB this season equals his career average with a high of 93.4 in 07. This would be a nice compliment to the softball pitchers we throw out usually.
I love that he eats innings, had very good career ERA during his time in Balt (4.12) in a bandbox, & doesnt get hurt.
If he is THE top offseason acquisition, dont love it. If he's 2nd best, would like it alot.
Posted 07 November 2012 - 04:40 PM
Posted 07 November 2012 - 04:53 PM
Posted 07 November 2012 - 05:04 PM
However, there are types of pitchers who will always pitch just good enough to lose.
I dont think Guthrie is one, but I do think there is something to that & something to consider
Posted 07 November 2012 - 05:53 PM
I'd rather target Marcum who throws softer but is more effective with the stuff he has as demonstrated by his superiour K/9. You'd think he'd be similarly priced. Guthrie at 5M is a different topic.
I would to, but Marcum is going to be significantly pricier at the end of the day. If the Twins can grab one of Shields/Johnson/other top pitcher on the trade market, I wouldn't be too upset if they supplemented the rotation with signing Baker and Guthrie.
wouldn't be to bad, of course replace Guthrie with Marcum and suddenly the Twins have a playoff contender rotation.
Posted 07 November 2012 - 10:38 PM
It would an error to look at his last two years and think the next two years project similarly. His k-rate has no room to decline. As for innings eater, is there a way to predict who will be a future inning eater? Is it an ability that can be projected at 33?
Edited by jorgenswest, 07 November 2012 - 11:24 PM.