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Thor done for the year

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#21 Trov

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Posted 26 March 2020 - 09:19 AM

 

If you want to win now and need to land "an ace" via a trade then it will cost 2 of your top 3 prospects.It really is that simple for the Twins

"an ace" does not guarantee a world series.When we were making playoffs each year with Johan Santana on our team how many post season series did we win, let alone world series?Sure an ace can help the odds, but it does not mean we will win.Look at Royals last big run, how many ace pitchers did they have?They had some top bullpen guys but no ace starters.Having good pitching is important and I would take that over good offense if I had to choose, but point I am making is dumping all top prospects for 1 year of increasing chances by a few percent, in my opinion, is not worth the many years of 100 loss seasons we will have.We can win without another top line starter, sure not as high of chance, but is it worth giving up all minor league talent?I think not.  

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#22 ewen21

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Posted 26 March 2020 - 10:07 AM

 

"an ace" does not guarantee a world series.When we were making playoffs each year with Johan Santana on our team how many post season series did we win, let alone world series?Sure an ace can help the odds, but it does not mean we will win.Look at Royals last big run, how many ace pitchers did they have?They had some top bullpen guys but no ace starters.Having good pitching is important and I would take that over good offense if I had to choose, but point I am making is dumping all top prospects for 1 year of increasing chances by a few percent, in my opinion, is not worth the many years of 100 loss seasons we will have.We can win without another top line starter, sure not as high of chance, but is it worth giving up all minor league talent?I think not.  

I argued that point a lot a few months ago when this place was blowing up because we wouldn't sign one to a multiyear deal.

 

HOWEVER, if the situation arises where we have a very strong team that can get a young arm that is under team control for a few years you go for it.I would rather have the pitching equivalent of Kepler or Polanco.Same age arms to compliment the nucleus. If it take Royce Lewis and Kiriloff to do it I am not sure I would reject it as a default.The Astros were willing to do it to get Cole.


#23 Nine of twelve

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Posted 26 March 2020 - 11:01 AM

 

These people are essentially saying is you don't ever trade prospects to get pitching.

No GM rules out anything when it comes to making a trade. It always comes down to whether you feel that what you receive makes it worth giving what you give. So in this case it depends on which prospects and which pitching.


#24 The Wise One

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Posted 26 March 2020 - 12:29 PM

 

So people are allowed to romanticize about prospects and how they will save the future, but you can't about a guy that in his last start pitched 7 innings gave up 5 hits, walked 2, struck out 9 and gave up 3 runs to a Braves team, got it.

My whole point above was we have no idea what the outcome of trading for Thor was last year, but we do know the outcome for not trading for him, that was getting swept in the 1st round.

if he pitches game one somewhere near his last start, that is a whole new game, but then again Rocco pulls him after 4 like he did with Berrios the outcome could be the same.if he starts game two and pitches like he did in the 4 starts prior to he last one the twins are still in that game instead of giving 8 runs up by the end of third.

If you bothered to check the score of Syndergaard's last game, why didn't you look at the previous games to that? There is nothing to say that there would have been any different outcome of giving up 3-4 runs. That rest over the winter did nothing for his injury leads me to believe he spent most of September injured, hence the results with Syndergaard would have been the same as without him. UCL was shot.

 

In regards to prospects, I didn't say squat about them in this thread.I have posted opinions on prospect ranking. There might be one or two people who even remember what I said better than I do. If I am going to point out the romanticism of thinking an injured pitcherwas going to make a difference, what might I post about prospects?


#25 Rosterman

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Posted 26 March 2020 - 02:41 PM

Good thing we didn't make that Buxton trader afterall!

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#26 Tomj14

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Posted 27 March 2020 - 10:54 AM

 

If you bothered to check the score of Syndergaard's last game, why didn't you look at the previous games to that? 

Hmm, I said "if he starts game two and pitches like he did in the 4 starts prior to he last one the twins are still in that game instead of giving 8 runs up by the end of third."

5, 5 2/3, 5, 5 and 4 runs in all. Still better than what happened in game 2.

But thanks for assuming I only used stats that tells my story (like you did), when I did the exact opposite of that, it makes you look real good, congrats!

 

 

 


#27 puckstopper1

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Posted 27 March 2020 - 11:11 AM

 

No GM rules out anything when it comes to making a trade. It always comes down to whether you feel that what you receive makes it worth giving what you give. So in this case it depends on which prospects and which pitching.

 

Spot on Nine

 

An example is Graterol and Raley for Maeda...

That Twins 2nd baseman - #29 - he doesn't run, he "ca-rew-zes" - Earl Weaver


#28 jkcarew

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Posted 27 March 2020 - 11:58 AM

Had the surgery yesterday in Florida. Pretty questionable. Hard to scream about the shortage of masks and ventilators when you're making the choice to give a baseball player Tommy John. Technically (and allegedly) the surgery met the criteria for essential, however plenty of sources/experts are dubious. Apparently, it's the physicians decision (according to reports I've read)...and surgery was performed by a physician that has postponed many other surgeries. Really, really, bad look, IMO.


#29 The Wise One

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Posted 27 March 2020 - 03:46 PM

 

Hmm, I said "if he starts game two and pitches like he did in the 4 starts prior to he last one the twins are still in that game instead of giving 8 runs up by the end of third."

5, 5 2/3, 5, 5 and 4 runs in all. Still better than what happened in game 2.

But thanks for assuming I only used stats that tells my story (like you did), when I did the exact opposite of that, it makes you look real good, congrats!

"So people are allowed to romanticize about prospects and how they will save the future, but you can't about a guy that in his last start pitched 7 innings gave up 5 hits, walked 2, struck out 9 and gave up 3 runs to a Braves team, got it."

That was you last post and very ironically the one I was responding to.But in your new argument of hypothetical romantic notions, and Syndergaard as not your ace but number 2 pitcher,how is a 4-2 loss any different than any other loss.


#30 ewen21

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Posted 28 March 2020 - 09:28 AM

 

"So people are allowed to romanticize about prospects and how they will save the future, but you can't about a guy that in his last start pitched 7 innings gave up 5 hits, walked 2, struck out 9 and gave up 3 runs to a Braves team, got it."

That was you last post and very ironically the one I was responding to.But in your new argument of hypothetical romantic notions, and Syndergaard as not your ace but number 2 pitcher,how is a 4-2 loss any different than any other loss.

How is having Royce Lewis in high A ball helping us win a game in the playoffs?

 

And....

How do we boost our staff in season when can use another arm during the stretch run?

 

I do not expect us to go for it every single year, but we are in that window of a couple of years right now where we should.


#31 Tomj14

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Posted 29 March 2020 - 12:23 PM

 

"So people are allowed to romanticize about prospects and how they will save the future, but you can't about a guy that in his last start pitched 7 innings gave up 5 hits, walked 2, struck out 9 and gave up 3 runs to a Braves team, got it."

That was you last post and very ironically the one I was responding to.But in your new argument of hypothetical romantic notions, and Syndergaard as not your ace but number 2 pitcher,how is a 4-2 loss any different than any other loss.

you do know that was all in the same post you quoted of mine?

You quoted both paragraphs, meaning you were responding to the the whole thing.

 

Then YOU said this "If you bothered to check the score of Syndergaard's last game, why didn't you look at the previous games to that?"

 

Which obviously I did, since you quoted the part of me saying that, here it is again = "if he starts game two and pitches like he did in the 4 starts prior to he last one"

 

Then you go on to say this "But in your new argument of hypothetical romantic notions, and Syndergaard as not your ace but number 2 pitcher,how is a 4-2 loss any different than any other loss."

 

Which of course I never referenced Thor as the new ace, but again congrats!

 

 

 


#32 The Wise One

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Posted 30 March 2020 - 07:18 AM

 

How is having Royce Lewis in high A ball helping us win a game in the playoffs?

 

And....

How do we boost our staff in season when can use another arm during the stretch run?

 

I do not expect us to go for it every single year, but we are in that window of a couple of years right now where we should.

Win as a team, lose as a team. One pitcher was not going to change the outcome of the series. Speculation that 24 other players would have played better with one more pitcher is neither provable nor entirely false.


#33 ewen21

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Posted 30 March 2020 - 09:48 AM

 

Win as a team, lose as a team. One pitcher was not going to change the outcome of the series. Speculation that 24 other players would have played better with one more pitcher is neither provable nor entirely false.

Again, I was on here telling people the same thing back in December when scores of posters were angry we hadn't made a splash in the off season pitching market.The reason I thought it was a waste of time is that virtually no big time starting pitcher is worth what he gets.In addition, our playoff losses has had more to do with the fact that this team doesn't hit in the postseason.Period.

 

HOWEVER, when it comes to dealing prospects I am not averse to doing so if it means it will help a team that is young and has many players under team control.This is the time I am looking into dealing for pitching.F

 

Finally, the Twins are losing in the playoffs for a lot of reasons and I feel one big reason is that it is psychological.The talent on the other side isn't THAT MUCH better where we lose 15 games in a row or whatever it is.There is a loser mindset and sometimes a mid-season acquisition can set off a chain of events that benefits the team enormously.See Shannon Stewart in 2003.In short, holding every single prospect and trading none of them is STUPID.Especially with this organization.

 

I cannot back your policy of HOLD PROSPECTS.It makes zero sense say that is a good policy under every single condition.Seems to me like the stench of Terry Ryan has clung to the fanbase a little too hard.


#34 The Wise One

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Posted 30 March 2020 - 02:39 PM

 

Again, I was on here telling people the same thing back in December when scores of posters were angry we hadn't made a splash in the off season pitching market.The reason I thought it was a waste of time is that virtually no big time starting pitcher is worth what he gets.In addition, our playoff losses has had more to do with the fact that this team doesn't hit in the postseason.Period.

 

HOWEVER, when it comes to dealing prospects I am not averse to doing so if it means it will help a team that is young and has many players under team control.This is the time I am looking into dealing for pitching.F

 

Finally, the Twins are losing in the playoffs for a lot of reasons and I feel one big reason is that it is psychological.The talent on the other side isn't THAT MUCH better where we lose 15 games in a row or whatever it is.There is a loser mindset and sometimes a mid-season acquisition can set off a chain of events that benefits the team enormously.See Shannon Stewart in 2003.In short, holding every single prospect and trading none of them is STUPID.Especially with this organization.

 

I cannot back your policy of HOLD PROSPECTS.It makes zero sense say that is a good policy under every single condition.Seems to me like the stench of Terry Ryan has clung to the fanbase a little too hard.

WHERE HAVE I EVER SAID HOLD PROSPECTS?  

mid season trade making a difference? Like Grienke? Shark a few years ago. Stroman propelled the Mets. Memorable when it works like Verlander, forgetable when it does not


#35 biggentleben

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Posted 31 March 2020 - 01:13 PM

The Twins very well may have made their reverse-Pierzynski deal last July with Sam Dyson, giving up an outfielder who could help the Giants this year, a very talented arm that projects in the middle or back of a rotation, and a lottery ticket arm in the low minors. Those are the type of prospects used to make these deals typically. Even with Greinke, you didn't see elite guys moving. It was primarily guys who were in the back half of the Astros top 10 (which wasn't a great top 10 at the time as it was) and not top 100 guys at that point. Yes, some of that was due to money involved, but the Diamondbacks ate a huge chunk of money JUST to get the guys they did.

 

The Pirates get chastised for their Archer deal, and rightly so, but they really traded guys who were on a down slope as far as prospect rankings went, and the Rays turned all of those guys around to some degree.

 

Guys like Lewis don't get moved for a pitcher. That's just something you don't do.

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#36 old nurse

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Posted 01 April 2020 - 05:51 AM

 

The Twins very well may have made their reverse-Pierzynski deal last July with Sam Dyson, giving up an outfielder who could help the Giants this year, a very talented arm that projects in the middle or back of a rotation, and a lottery ticket arm in the low minors. Those are the type of prospects used to make these deals typically. Even with Greinke, you didn't see elite guys moving. It was primarily guys who were in the back half of the Astros top 10 (which wasn't a great top 10 at the time as it was) and not top 100 guys at that point. Yes, some of that was due to money involved, but the Diamondbacks ate a huge chunk of money JUST to get the guys they did.

 

The Pirates get chastised for their Archer deal, and rightly so, but they really traded guys who were on a down slope as far as prospect rankings went, and the Rays turned all of those guys around to some degree.

 

Guys like Lewis don't get moved for a pitcher. That's just something you don't do.

Any trade of multiple minor league players for a player can result in a bad trade. Davis certainly could help the Giants.To help the Twins would mean something happened toone of Buxton, Rosario or Kepler and two of Gonzales, Cave and adrianza, and as the year went on Rooker,, and the AA outfielders from last year are not developing.Everyone should be happy for Davis he is in a position to get a shot. You say the 20 year old arms are mid to back of the rotation That would be a lower ceiling than Boof's at that age and lower than what Liriano became. All in all the trades are a very bad comp


#37 old nurse

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Posted 01 April 2020 - 05:52 AM

 

 

 

 

The Pirates get chastised for their Archer deal, and rightly so, but they really traded guys who were on a down slope as far as prospect rankings went, and the Rays turned all of those guys around to some degree.

 

Guys like Lewis don't get moved for a pitcher. That's just something you don't do.

Thanks for once again providing a reason for why prospect ratings are so useless.


#38 biggentleben

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Posted 01 April 2020 - 07:52 AM

 

Thanks for once again providing a reason for why prospect ratings are so useless.

No, I don't believe any of the three have success staying in Pittsburgh. There's a reason they were being viewed more negatively. Glasnow especially needed to get out of that system. I'm still far from sold that Baz will turn out.

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#39 biggentleben

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Posted 01 April 2020 - 07:55 AM

 

 

Any trade of multiple minor league players for a player can result in a bad trade. Davis certainly could help the Giants.To help the Twins would mean something happened toone of Buxton, Rosario or Kepler and two of Gonzales, Cave and adrianza, and as the year went on Rooker,, and the AA outfielders from last year are not developing.Everyone should be happy for Davis he is in a position to get a shot. You say the 20 year old arms are mid to back of the rotation That would be a lower ceiling than Boof's at that age and lower than what Liriano became. All in all the trades are a very bad comp

Boof's projection and Teng's projection at the time of trade I would rate as similar. Teng could absolutely become much more, and when I did a report on him last summer, I had an MLB comp that was much higher than a 4/5 guy. Berroa is a lottery ticket. Liriano was as well. You could make the argument at the time that Nathan would not have broken through the Giants bullpen and other such arguments made here, but Twins fans view that deal as highway robbery, especially in light of what the team received for giving up those players.

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#40 ewen21

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Posted 01 April 2020 - 10:50 AM

I no longer view the AJ deal as some outrageously great deal.Liriano was a great pitcher for us for a half of as season in 2006.He had a strong year in 2010.Nathan, while effective most of the year, FAILED when the bright lights shone on him.He spit the bit with the Giants in the playoffs as well.For as effective as he was he was not a big game closer.If you are a closer not built to close out big games then what are you?

Seeing him pitch in Yankee Stadium was actually disturbing to watch at times with all those tics that would come out.It was absolutely horrendous to watch and I would not call it "small sample size" or a "fluke" either.THey dude clearly panicked in those situations and thus his value is diminished for me.

 

AJ went on the have a very solid career.It isn't like he wasn't a solid starting catcher for literally ten years following the trade.It turned out to be a bad trade for SF because he didn't work out there.It was a good trade for us but not an epic fleecing to me.Frank Robinson for Milt Pappas was a fleece job.Lou Brock for Ernie Brolio was a fleece job.

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