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#1 gunnarthor

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Posted 06 March 2020 - 11:55 PM

I don't think this should be a political thread. We got a work email today detailing plans to deal with the virus - a lot of suggestions to work from home. I now actually know someone in MN that unofficially has it but seems likely to be the real thing.

 

I'm actually not overly concerned with the virus but some of my co-workers are germaphobes and are absolutely freaking out. They send emails and facebook posts hourly.

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#2 Craig Arko

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Posted 07 March 2020 - 08:54 AM

Hold on to your butts.

 

I always wanted to know what it would be like to simultaneously experience the 1918 flu,  Great Depression, and 1968 mass protests while Andrew Johnson was president.


#3 Sconnie

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Posted 07 March 2020 - 07:18 PM

To continue...
https://mobile.twitt...095181633376257


1m hospital beds in the US and approximately 5m cases in the US by May 5 at exponential growth rate.

Yowza!
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#4 SQUIRREL

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Posted 07 March 2020 - 07:42 PM

Let's keep this to one thread. And no, it is not a political thread or topic, so don't make it one.

“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.”

#5 SQUIRREL

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Posted 07 March 2020 - 07:46 PM

 

I don't think this should be a political thread. We got a work email today detailing plans to deal with the virus - a lot of suggestions to work from home. I now actually know someone in MN that unofficially has it but seems likely to be the real thing.

 

I'm actually not overly concerned with the virus but some of my co-workers are germaphobes and are absolutely freaking out. They send emails and facebook posts hourly.

My sister is a doctor and said to be cautious, but not to panic. Wash hands regularly, keep contact to people and things to a minimum, use hand sanitizer or wipes if you can't wash, try not to touch your face ... you know ... pretty standard, common sense things. But it's just so new ... hard to know really what to think. I'm minimizing my use of public transportation and use of paper currency. (Things I pretty much do anyway.)

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“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.”

#6 twinsnorth49

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Posted 09 March 2020 - 07:41 AM

The overreaction to this and the fear being stoked by the media is absurd. This flu will not effect the vast, vast majority of people or threaten the lives of the vast majority of people who do contract it.

Everyone needs to calm the hell down.
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#7 Craig Arko

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Posted 09 March 2020 - 07:47 AM

 

The overreaction to this and the fear being stoked by the media is absurd. This flu will not effect the vast, vast majority of people or threaten the lives of the vast majority of people who do contract it.

Everyone needs to calm the hell down.

I wouldn't be too sure about that. Epidemiologsts are suggesting up to 70% of the worlds' population could be infected. With a 2% fatality rate, that's a 100 million deaths worldwide.

 

As someone in the threatened demographic, I need to care. I agree I do not need to panic, which is counterproductive to any response.

 

Apparently some German researchers are testing an existing vaccine for effectiveness. This could reduce the time to field deployment by some months if successful.

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I always wanted to know what it would be like to simultaneously experience the 1918 flu,  Great Depression, and 1968 mass protests while Andrew Johnson was president.


#8 MMMordabito

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Posted 09 March 2020 - 08:36 AM

I remember when epidemiologists were saying that up to 90,000 people in the US could die from H1N1 back in 2009.They ended up being off by about 75,000 (give or take).Too many of the articles that predict that stuff use words like "some", "potentially", "could" and other double-speak. That way they can say whatever they want without really saying it.

 

I'd like to see some information on the death rate of this virus compared to the relative air quality index in each locale.Wuhan, China and Lombardia, Italy have some of the worst air in the world.I'm not making a statement, just an observation.That way I can say whatever I want without actually saying it.

 

 


#9 gunnarthor

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Posted 09 March 2020 - 08:42 AM

It makes sense to be worried but not be panicky. It also is a silly to think this is just the flu. Basic safety measures - washing hands, cover coughs, limit large crowds and traveling - should be observed by everyone. 

 

 

I don't think the media deserves any blame for reporting on a international pandemic. Frankly, I think the Star Tribune's coverage has been outstanding. 

 

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#10 Craig Arko

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Posted 09 March 2020 - 08:50 AM

A useful resource for the tech/data folks to ferret out information.

 

https://coronavirustechhandbook.com

 

I always wanted to know what it would be like to simultaneously experience the 1918 flu,  Great Depression, and 1968 mass protests while Andrew Johnson was president.


#11 twinsnorth49

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Posted 09 March 2020 - 08:54 AM

 

I wouldn't be too sure about that. Epidemiologsts are suggesting up to 70% of the worlds' population could be infected. With a 2% fatality rate, that's a 100 million deaths worldwide.

 

As someone in the threatened demographic, I need to care. I agree I do not need to panic, which is counterproductive to any response.

 

Apparently some German researchers are testing an existing vaccine for effectiveness. This could reduce the time to field deployment by some months if successful.

If you're in a threatened demographic, you should care about most strains of the flu, which kills and will continue to kill far more people than this particular version will end up killing. Those estimates are the most extreme of estimates and right now not in keeping with the trending fatality rate for the disease. A hundred fold increase in deaths over the next little while would still put it on the lower range of seasonal flu deaths worldwide. 

 

Remember SARS, H1N1, Swine flu, Ebola? Yeah, me either. Sars had a death rate far higher than COVID-19, while not being transmitted as easily. 

 

The best quote I've read lately is that the WHO should be renamed the World Hysteria Organization. The media has been incredibly irresponsible in the reporting of the disease and in keeping with today's news cycle, have focused almost entirely on the sensational aspects of the story. Talking about the 70,000+ people who have recovered from COVID-19, doesn't elicit nearly as many clicks. 

 

Personally I think focus should be placed on how to protect compromised individuals, since this is the demographic where the vast majority of deaths are coming from. Death rates are so far 0% in people under 10 and between .2 and .4 in non geriatric adults, even without accounting for undetected asymptomatic cases. 

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#12 twinsnorth49

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Posted 09 March 2020 - 09:15 AM

 

It makes sense to be worried but not be panicky. It also is a silly to think this is just the flu. Basic safety measures - washing hands, cover coughs, limit large crowds and traveling - should be observed by everyone. 

 

 

I don't think the media deserves any blame for reporting on a international pandemic. Frankly, I think the Star Tribune's coverage has been outstanding. 

The only difference between seasonal flu and COVID 19 right now is the uncertainty behind the latter. COVID 19 is unknown compared to seasonal flu but that does not mean in the long run it will end up being any worse as far as total deaths are concerned. It has a higher mortality rate, however context needs to be applied to that and it mainly has not. 

 

The media has without doubt stoked fear and been lazy in their reporting of the illness, it's simply foolish to believe otherwise. The constant reporting of fatality rates without providing all variables and context has been very poor. Other countries throughout the world who have been far vigorous and proactive in their testing have found fatality rates to be as low as .6% in infected people, never mind what it might be when accounting for undetected cases.

 

COVID 19 is new, right now that is the major issue.  


#13 Craig Arko

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Posted 09 March 2020 - 09:15 AM

 

If you're in a threatened demographic, you should care about most strains of the flu, which kills and will continue to kill far more people than this particular version will end up killing. Those estimates are the most extreme of estimates and right now not in keeping with the trending fatality rate for the disease. A hundred fold increase in deaths over the next little while would still put it on the lower range of seasonal flu deaths worldwide. 

 

Remember SARS, H1N1, Swine flu, Ebola? Yeah, me either. Sars had a death rate far higher than COVID-19, while not being transmitted as easily. 

 

The best quote I've read lately is that the WHO should be renamed the World Hysteria Organization. The media has been incredibly irresponsible in the reporting of the disease and in keeping with today's news cycle, have focused almost entirely on the sensational aspects of the story. Talking about the 70,000+ people who have recovered from COVID-19, doesn't elicit nearly as many clicks. 

 

Personally I think focus should be placed on how to protect compromised individuals, since this is the demographic where the vast majority of deaths are coming from. Death rates are so far 0% in people under 10 and between .2 and .4 in non geriatric adults, even without accounting for undetected asymptomatic cases. 

I've already had flu and pneumonia shots; it's the unknown strains that new mutations form that are of concern. For example COVID-19 has already mutated from the original S strain to the current L strain, which is the form proving lethal to humans in some (~ 2%) of cases.

 

Also, in Japan there have been incidents reported of patients who were designated as recovered and later found to be re-infected.

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I always wanted to know what it would be like to simultaneously experience the 1918 flu,  Great Depression, and 1968 mass protests while Andrew Johnson was president.


#14 gunnarthor

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Posted 09 March 2020 - 09:18 AM

Again, the media has been reporting on this. I think there might be a difference between what is being reported on credible news as opposed to social media. My facebook feed gets insane stuff. But ABC, CNN, NBC, AP, the Trib, etc have all had pretty decent coverage. 

 

I think a serious area of discussion is has been how the government has responded to this but that would bring this into a political thread so we can't discuss that.


#15 Craig Arko

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Posted 09 March 2020 - 09:22 AM

The WHO. No, not Roger Daltrey.

 

https://www.who.int/...ic/myth-busters

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#16 Craig Arko

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Posted 09 March 2020 - 09:53 AM

And for those who don't mind a little math with their beer.

 

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#17 SQUIRREL

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Posted 09 March 2020 - 12:43 PM

I’m not panicked, but I am taking it more seriously and trying to take greater precautions. This doesn’t include buying up all the TP I can find, but it does include buying a bit more at one time than usual to minimize trips to the store, trying to avoid mass transit, and wearing latex gloves at the gym and at work when I have to handle a lot of music. I also avoid touching things ... elevator buttons and door handles, for example, and other public surfaces. I've always been a good and thorough hand washer, but am washing more often. If it all amounts to nonsense, so be it. I’m no worse off for being diligent. Agreed, panic is bad. So is complacency, imo.
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“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.”

#18 Vanimal46

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Posted 09 March 2020 - 12:47 PM

The overreaction to this and the fear being stoked by the media is absurd. This flu will not effect the vast, vast majority of people or threaten the lives of the vast majority of people who do contract it.

Everyone needs to calm the hell down.


I’m with you, North. We have survived much worse since pandemics in the past. But, because it’s so mysterious, the media is freaking out. Which makes the average Joe freak out.

This can continue for a while longer, honestly. Airfares are dirt cheap right now! Just booked a flight to California in April and it’s half the cost I normally pay.
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#19 Musk21

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Posted 09 March 2020 - 12:58 PM

My family and I have a Disney cruise planned for in a few weeks. A bunch of people on the cruise have already canceled, but I'd prefer not to unless they offer full refunds. As of now, they are allowing you to rebook any time within the next 12 months. Of course there are no dates that work without the kids missing a bunch of additional school or paying a few grand more to go over winter break. We'll see what happens.


#20 twinsnorth49

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Posted 09 March 2020 - 01:04 PM

I'm more into probabilities.