A bunch of randomness:
1. Agree with gunnarthor: a good not great pipeline. Importantly, many of the same talent evaluation eyes were on Duffey, Rosario, and Garver AND Littell, Rooker, and Jeffers. I have a fair amount of skepticism, despite the absolutely abysmal optics, when a litany of past failures (Wimmer through Jay, 2009-15) are attributed summarily to EITHER crappy talent evaluation OR bad development expertise. Some things are just plain gonna happen. Meaning yes, and no, to both functions, and to both the question of good or bad. It's complicated. For ALL clubs.
2. Kirilloff and Larnach, with picks #15 and #20? Kudos to the scouts. A majority of clubs will want to trade their own first round picks from those drafts retroactively in both cases.
3. Was development good or bad in the past? Nick and gunnathor, you're both wrong. . What's important, we all know, is how much better it really is today, especially compared to the competition. We know Falvey has convinced ownership to blow open the budget. They've added people, knowledge, processes, technology, and resources of every kind to the development endeavor. Results may be inconclusive so far, but it's almost inarguable that we aren't seeing a myriad of hints, if not proof, that development is happening now in ways it never has and up there with the best practices in the industry.
4. The trade record is mixed so far. Besides Graterol and Duran, we haven't traded away or acquired Top 100 prospects. Still, the system would be ranked a couple of slots higher with Diaz, Jaylen Davis, Berroa, Teng, Gil, etc. and one could argue that so far, the production of Cave, Littell, Smeltzer, etc. makes the record mediocre. But hey, I say "Falvey, stay active!" Because if you're drafting late, you better be excellent at getting value for your redundant major leaguers and optimizing trade opportunities. Otherwise, you'll go right back to the old pattern where the system goes from #3 to #22 in two years.
5. If this club is to sustain its current excellence at both levels, they HAVE to have a very high success rate with those middling first round picks like Kirilloff, Larnach, and Rooker. They HAVE to score with IFA prospects, so they need Emmanuel Rodriguez, Misael Urbina, Edwar Colina and Wander Javier types to ALSO pan out at a high rate. And they have to reel in a Jhoan Duran type frequently when they trade a proven MLB player.