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Twins Daily 2020 Top Prospects: #1 SS Royce Lewis

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#21 4twinsJA

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Posted 19 February 2020 - 01:04 PM

After this year could see Lewis starting his MLB career as supersub, backing up SS, 2B, 3B, and OF. Taking Gonzolez and Adrianza's place, Rocco likes to get his players rest, plenty of PT for someone as versatile as Lewis. Hope he figures his swing out and keeps improving.

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#22 goulik

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Posted 19 February 2020 - 03:56 PM

Unlike several posters, I am on the Royce Lewis bandwagon. I believe he will have a big year in the minors and force his way up.

Same with Kirilloff. Those two studs will not be held down all season.

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#23 FlauerPauer

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Posted 19 February 2020 - 04:11 PM

I think he profiles as a great piece to highlight a trade for that stud pitcher the Twins so desperately need.


#24 birdwatcher

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Posted 19 February 2020 - 07:54 PM

 

There are lots of 5-tool prospects... there aren't a lot of 5-tool MLB players. 

 

 

To me, the distinction is between athletic talent (tools) and skills, which are sometimes developed and sometimes not. And sometimes, that tools-to-skills gap remains open through no fault of anyone but the player. Say howdy to Delmon Young for example.

 

I think that's why in large part talent evaluators pay attention to "makeup".

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#25 DocBauer

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Posted 19 February 2020 - 08:53 PM

Considering position player vs pitcher, the value of a quality rotation arm, much less a top of the rotation arm, I think you could easily shuffle the top 5 and be right. (Taking Graterol our of the rankings). And I have no problem with that.

But I do think souring on Lewis, or Kiriloff, after off 2019 seasons is silly. You have professional scouting at the HS level and general consensus that each is a special and top talent. You have quality pro results. You flash and have great numbers, then you get a little dinged up and have a down or so-so season and suddenly you just aren't as good as you were expected/hoped to be.

Kiriloff basically raked again when healthy in 2019. Lewis went to the AFL, healthy, and while SSS, theoretically played against competition as good or better than what he faced during the season. And he was the best player there. Not everyone is the next Griffey Jr, Trout or Harper.
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#26 D.C Twins

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Posted 19 February 2020 - 09:33 PM

This is just a huge, huge year for Lewis.

 

Tools or not, by any metric, he had an awful season (a strike out to walk ratio of 3:1 stands out most to me which really should have nothing to do with the batting in Florida)

 

The majority of scouting reports that I have seen are concerned about his swing as he moves up in difficulty.

 

Most, if not all (I'm open to examples) MLB superstars did not endure such a disaster of a season in the low/mid minors.

 

Yes he is young, yes there was a glimmer of hope in the small sample size of the AFL, yes he is a wonderful human being by all accounts, BUT a sustained poor performancein A ball IS concerning for an overall#1 pick.

 

This is SUCHa big year for him....and I am SO rooting for him!

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#27 Linus

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Posted 19 February 2020 - 09:33 PM

If he can’t stick at SS then he should have been traded. Second baseman are readily available and we have a better player in CF now

#28 howieramone2

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Posted 19 February 2020 - 09:58 PM

You don't trade him because of his versatility. You can plug a top prospect into 3 or 4 positions. Further, you don't sell low.
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#29 Vanimal46

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Posted 19 February 2020 - 10:05 PM

Considering position player vs pitcher, the value of a quality rotation arm, much less a top of the rotation arm, I think you could easily shuffle the top 5 and be right. (Taking Graterol our of the rankings). And I have no problem with that.

But I do think souring on Lewis, or Kiriloff, after off 2019 seasons is silly. You have professional scouting at the HS level and general consensus that each is a special and top talent. You have quality pro results. You flash and have great numbers, then you get a little dinged up and have a down or so-so season and suddenly you just aren't as good as you were expected/hoped to be.

Kiriloff basically raked again when healthy in 2019. Lewis went to the AFL, healthy, and while SSS, theoretically played against competition as good or better than what he faced during the season. And he was the best player there. Not everyone is the next Griffey Jr, Trout or Harper.


It’s more than just a down 2019, Doc. Lewis has been producing pedestrian offensive numbers since he got the call to Fort Myers.

I did this research during the 2019 season and looked at the top SS prospects over the last 5 years. No one struggled as much as Royce in A+ ball:

Brendan Rodgers - 2017 - Age 20 - .387/.407/.671 in 236 PA before getting the call to AA.

Willy Adames - 2015 - Age 19 - .258/.342/.379 in 456 PA before getting the call to AA.

Gleyber Torres - 2016 - Age 19 - .270/.354/.421 in 547 PA before getting the call to AA.

J.P. Crawford - 2014 - Age 19 - .286/.373/.395 in 415 PA before getting the call to AA.

Amed Rosario - 2015-16 - Age 19/20 - .278/.328/.378 in 707 PA before getting the call to AA.

Corey Seager - 2013-2014 - Age 19/20 - .307/.372/.560 in 479 PA before getting the call to AA.

Trea Turner - Never played A+ ball. Pretty crazy.

Orlando Arcia - 2014 - Age 19 - .289/.346/.392 in 546 PA before getting the call to AA.

Can you point out when Lewis was banged up last year that caused his bad stats?
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#30 Doctor Gast

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Posted 20 February 2020 - 07:40 AM

 Last season my value in Lewis dropped but being young there`s some maturing that needs to be done. Looks like he`s past that from AFL view. When I saw Donaldson`s video on hitting, I thought WOW! This would be perfect for Lewis. I believe Lewis`s hitting is ready to take off, can`t wait! Twins are weak in depth up the middle, I see Lewis as a valuable asset to help support those areas. His ability to be a super utility player will open a spot on the roster very quickly if he takes that big step


#31 Twins33

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Posted 20 February 2020 - 09:19 PM

 

Can you point out when Lewis was banged up last year that caused his bad stats?

Im with you on the stats. Also Lewis strained his oblique last spring training which always seems to take a long time to recover from even when it’s only “mild.” Not sure if it impacted his 2019 stats. Don’t think he ever complained about it during the season, which doesn’t mean it didn’t bother him. No way to know for sure. 


#32 DocBauer

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Posted 20 February 2020 - 11:37 PM

It’s more than just a down 2019, Doc. Lewis has been producing pedestrian offensive numbers since he got the call to Fort Myers.
I did this research during the 2019 season and looked at the top SS prospects over the last 5 years. No one struggled as much as Royce in A+ ball:
Brendan Rodgers - 2017 - Age 20 - .387/.407/.671 in 236 PA before getting the call to AA.
Willy Adames - 2015 - Age 19 - .258/.342/.379 in 456 PA before getting the call to AA.
Gleyber Torres - 2016 - Age 19 - .270/.354/.421 in 547 PA before getting the call to AA.
J.P. Crawford - 2014 - Age 19 - .286/.373/.395 in 415 PA before getting the call to AA.
Amed Rosario - 2015-16 - Age 19/20 - .278/.328/.378 in 707 PA before getting the call to AA.
Corey Seager - 2013-2014 - Age 19/20 - .307/.372/.560 in 479 PA before getting the call to AA.
Trea Turner - Never played A+ ball. Pretty crazy.
Orlando Arcia - 2014 - Age 19 - .289/.346/.392 in 546 PA before getting the call to AA.
Can you point out when Lewis was banged up last year that caused his bad stats?


I appreciate your comments. I appreciate your comparisons. I think it's also fair to NOT compare individual prospects, especially very young ones, as there are many variables to be considered, not the least of which is injury.

Lewis 2017: 36G in the GCL and 18G at CR, bypassing Elizabethton:
Composite: .279/ .381/ .407/ .788

Lewis 2018: 75G at CR and 46G at FTM:
Composite: .255/ .352/ .451/ .803

His numbers dropped at FTM, which shouldn't be unexpected due to age and experience. A fine all around FIRST FULL SEASON in pro ball.

Lewis 2019: 94G at FTM and 33G at PNS:
Composite: .236/ .290/ .371/ .661

February 23rd of last season it was reported Lewis had an oblique injury in the field that would set him back and cause him to miss a chunk, if not most of, ST. I think we all know and understand how an oblique injury can really mess with ballplayer. What's interesting is that his stats from A+ to AA Pensecola were very close to the same, though disappointing, despite the raise in level. Further, despite his struggles, the FO saw enough in improvement to advance him to the next level.

The FSL is known to be tough on hitters. Larnach, a top prospect, did well there. Great! Awesome! He was a college player a good 2yrs older, if I'm not mistaken. Alex Kirilloff had a great half season at FTM in 2018, I think 1yr younger but coming off his injury missed season. And I love AK and think he's special. But he was also fully healthy in 2018.

Royce, now healthy, was sent to the AFL at the end of the season in which the competition is considered roughly AA level, which is where he ended the year.

Lewis AFL 2019 in 22G: .353/ .411/ .565/ .975

I am NOT saying Lewis is a finished product guaranteed phenomenoninal success. But so young, so talented, and battling a fairly significant, nagging injury and finishing the season should not only garner optimism, but also help excuse some poor early results to last year.

There are absolutely things to work on and develop. But I also think there is WAY too much consternation for a poor/mediocre 2019 in regards to his potential and ranking.
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#33 Vanimal46

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Posted 21 February 2020 - 08:24 AM

I appreciate your comments. I appreciate your comparisons. I think it's also fair to NOT compare individual prospects, especially very young ones, as there are many variables to be considered, not the least of which is injury.

Lewis 2017: 36G in the GCL and 18G at CR, bypassing Elizabethton:
Composite: .279/ .381/ .407/ .788

Lewis 2018: 75G at CR and 46G at FTM:
Composite: .255/ .352/ .451/ .803

His numbers dropped at FTM, which shouldn't be unexpected due to age and experience. A fine all around FIRST FULL SEASON in pro ball.

Lewis 2019: 94G at FTM and 33G at PNS:
Composite: .236/ .290/ .371/ .661

February 23rd of last season it was reported Lewis had an oblique injury in the field that would set him back and cause him to miss a chunk, if not most of, ST. I think we all know and understand how an oblique injury can really mess with ballplayer. What's interesting is that his stats from A+ to AA Pensecola were very close to the same, though disappointing, despite the raise in level. Further, despite his struggles, the FO saw enough in improvement to advance him to the next level.

The FSL is known to be tough on hitters. Larnach, a top prospect, did well there. Great! Awesome! He was a college player a good 2yrs older, if I'm not mistaken. Alex Kirilloff had a great half season at FTM in 2018, I think 1yr younger but coming off his injury missed season. And I love AK and think he's special. But he was also fully healthy in 2018.

Royce, now healthy, was sent to the AFL at the end of the season in which the competition is considered roughly AA level, which is where he ended the year.

Lewis AFL 2019 in 22G: .353/ .411/ .565/ .975

I am NOT saying Lewis is a finished product guaranteed phenomenoninal success. But so young, so talented, and battling a fairly significant, nagging injury and finishing the season should not only garner optimism, but also help excuse some poor early results to last year.

There are absolutely things to work on and develop. But I also think there is WAY too much consternation for a poor/mediocre 2019 in regards to his potential and ranking.


If Royce was not healthy in 2019, I fail to understand why he was not placed on the IL at any point? If it wasn’t serious enough to take him off the field, I don’t buy using that injury as an excuse for his rough season in 2019.

Again, Doc, I know he was young in his first full season. All of the examples I mentioned in the post before were his age, and (gasp!) some of them played in the same FSL.

If he is indeed an elite prospect, I expect him to hit better than league average at A+ and AA. This is a big year for him.
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#34 twinkiesfan11

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Posted 21 February 2020 - 10:11 AM

Royce is very raw, the Twins have been fairly aggressive with him and oblique injuries tend to haunt. It just feels like he’s primed to make everyone forget about his 2019 struggles in short order. Guys with this kind of athleticism who have at least shown flashes of dominance are special prospects. The fact that he’s reportedly great in the clubhouse, shows leadership traits and has a lot of charisma for the fans is also worth mentioning. He has hit for average in stretches, his power rates among the best in the system, his speed is special and he has the potential to stick at shortstop or could be a plus CF or 3B. He’s absolutely the top prospect for the Twins and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him reclaim a spot in the top 10 of national top 100 rankings by mid season.

#35 DocBauer

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Posted 21 February 2020 - 10:33 AM

If Royce was not healthy in 2019, I fail to understand why he was not placed on the IL at any point? If it wasn’t serious enough to take him off the field, I don’t buy using that injury as an excuse for his rough season in 2019.
Again, Doc, I know he was young in his first full season. All of the examples I mentioned in the post before were his age, and (gasp!) some of them played in the same FSL.
If he is indeed an elite prospect, I expect him to hit better than league average at A+ and AA. This is a big year for him.


I don't know about in season injury or nagging results from one that lingered. But missing all, or nearly all, of ST had to mess up his timing, approach, etc. The Twins thought they saw enough to bump him up to AA. His results in the AFL make me believe their choice was a correct one,and keeps his top prospect status in check.

I was very disappointed in his 2019 as well. And if he struggles again in 2020 at least some of his luster is going be tarnished. But talent, previous results, the early oblique injury, his promotion and strong finish in the AFL keeps him amongst the top spots for me. For now. I begin to question him next off-season if we have a repeat.
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