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How Have the Twins Fared in Previous Top-100 Prospect Trades?

wilson ramos brusdar graterol matt garza ben revere trevor may
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#21 Doctor Gast

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Posted 17 February 2020 - 06:30 AM

 

Aaron Hicks?

Yes, Aaron Hicks is another one w/ great potential that they gave up on which they traded just for the sake to trade, we got nothing for him. I don`t pretend that I know more than the experts but I wonder sometimes that sometimes those who are close to these players & see their warts, they magnifies those warts so that`sall they see. At the same see a possible need & another team`s player that possible could fill that need, they then magnify their talents & not see their warts. Therefore making a terrible trade. So I suggest that any trade they somehow get some outside eyes


#22 miracleb

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Posted 17 February 2020 - 06:34 AM

Intentional my arse.....what a doooofus.LOL!


#23 Tomj14

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Posted 17 February 2020 - 07:50 AM

 

Yes, Aaron Hicks is another one w/ great potential that they gave up on which they traded just for the sake to trade, we got nothing for him. I don`t pretend that I know more than the experts but I wonder sometimes that sometimes those who are close to these players & see their warts, they magnifies those warts so that`s it`s all they see. At the same see a possible need & another team`s player that possible could fill that need, they then magnify their talents & not see their warts. Therefore making a terrible trade. So I suggest that any trade they somehow get some outside eyes

Lets not forget that Hicks has only played 407 games in the last 4 years, and was terrible his first year in New York (which was 123 of those 407 games)
 


#24 Ruven

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Posted 17 February 2020 - 08:54 AM

This short list of mostly failed trades excludes long-view deals where the players acquired eventually wind up in the Top 100. That long-view list could (eventually, if not already) include the Pressly and Escobar deals.

#25 Aerodeliria

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Posted 17 February 2020 - 09:00 AM

I never liked losing Denard Span. Never!

#26 spycake

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Posted 17 February 2020 - 09:01 AM

FWIW, Trevor May was a top 100 prospect the offseason *before* we acquired him -- he had a pretty mediocre year at AA for the Phillies in 2012 which knocked him off lists.


#27 spycake

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Posted 17 February 2020 - 09:16 AM

 

What about the Denny Neagle for Jon Smiley trade and Viola for West, Drummond ,Savage, Tapani, and Aguilera? I don't know if Neagle was too 100.... But West was the highest ranked pitcher in the Viola trade.

It appears Neagle was never a top 100 prospect. Baseball Reference has the BA lists going to back to 1990, reflected on their minor league player pages, and it shows nothing for Neagle:

 

https://www.baseball...id=neagle001den

 

Someone compiled the BA lists into a spreadsheet here too, no Neagle:

 

https://spreadsheets...16N0s4WHc&hl=en

 

For West, unfortunately I don't think BA's top 100 list existed before 1990 and West was ineligible by then. He was #2 on the Mets list in 1989, though, behind only Gregg Jeffries, so I suspect he could have done well in a top 100 list that year.

 

https://www.baseball...nkings-archive/


#28 Doctor Gast

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Posted 17 February 2020 - 09:26 AM

Thanks for the article & the work that you put into it


#29 spycake

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Posted 17 February 2020 - 09:47 AM

 

Having played a full season Young was not a prospect.

 

Gomez, Humber and Guerra were all top 100 prospects

 

Liriano and Bonser had been a top 100 prospect and had fallen out of the top 100 prior to the Twins trading for them. Natahan was not ranked

If anything it shows that top 100 prospect lists do not mean much.

I thought the Young trade was included here more because of Garza, although technically he had graduated the prospect list in 2007 too. I guess even in 2008, both guys were still getting valued by their high top 100 ranks from 2007.

 

Humber had lost his top 100 ranking by the time we traded for him too, but due to health/performance rather than graduation.

 

It's not surprising Nathan wasn't on any lists -- not only was he drafted as a shortstop before converting to pitcher, he was actually a mediocre starting pitcher in the minors until converting to relief at age 28.

 

I think top 100 lists can be useful, as long as one understands their limitations and context.


#30 Doctor Gast

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Posted 17 February 2020 - 10:29 AM

 

Lets not forget that Hicks has only played 407 games in the last 4 years, and was terrible his first year in New York (which was 123 of those 407 games)
 

Thank you for pointing that out. I don`t think Hicks really achieved his full potential although he`s been rated as one the best OF in theAL. I don`t think Buxton has played much more in the last 4yrs. w/ some under stats years but I wouldn`t trade him for anyone. About the guy we trade for (Murphy), I believe he`s never been in a ML game.


#31 saviking

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Posted 17 February 2020 - 10:33 AM

Let's face facts. Todate, the Twins have been much better at developing their own prospects than trading for talent. So far that is ...


#32 Doctor Gast

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Posted 17 February 2020 - 10:35 AM

The Maeda/ Graterol trade can not be fully evaluated until Maeda`s time w/ the Twins & Graterol`s career is over


#33 Trov

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Posted 17 February 2020 - 10:50 AM

The problem I have with this article is using only WAR to compare the trades.The two CF for pitcher trades is not balanced due to fact May became pen pitcher and a decent one at that and should help us this year.Let me ask this, would you rather have May now or Revere?Pretty sure we could snatch up Revere somewhere.Also, even if you wanted the production over that time, how much of a difference would Revere made over that time?  

 

The Garza for Young trade clearly worked out better for Rays, but Garza was not a fan of the way the Twins were teaching him and he may never have developed the same way with the Twins as he did with the Rays, maybe he would have but that is difficult to judge.  

 

Clearly the worst was the Matt Capps trade, which was another Bill Smith blunder.He was part of a group that over valued the closer and the save.No way would any team now a days trade a top catching prospect for a below average bullpen guy, that just happened to pile up a lot of counting stats.It showed how badly the team needed to embrace a new line of thinking.It was a terrible attempt at a win now move. Even if Joe could have caught during much of the time Ramos was a young catcher, they still could have flipped him for more than Capps. 

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#34 spycake

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Posted 17 February 2020 - 11:50 AM

 

The Garza for Young trade clearly worked out better for Rays, but Garza was not a fan of the way the Twins were teaching him and he may never have developed the same way with the Twins as he did with the Rays, maybe he would have but that is difficult to judge.  

Garza had a 3.69 ERA (117 ERA+) and 4.18 FIP in 2007 for the Twins.

 

His best single-season marks in Tampa were a 3.70 ERA (119 ERA+) and 4.14 FIP.

 

I think it's fair to say he would have turned into much the same pitcher.


#35 howieramone2

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Posted 17 February 2020 - 12:46 PM

Our favorite team has done a solid job at trading for talent. At the 2018 trade deadline alone, we picked up 4 starting pitching prospects and Alcala. I understand members buried in the past, as I do the ever present Impatient Brigade. Going forward, things can't look much better.

#36 AceWrigley

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Posted 17 February 2020 - 02:53 PM

 

Intentional because sometimes things get missed unless there is something that draws attention to it.

I can dig it, i was just havin' fun with it.
 


#37 DocBauer

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Posted 18 February 2020 - 12:08 AM

Cody, love you dude, but this revisionist history has to stop. I appreciate the OP and the idea, but enough is enough.

Hicks was thrust in to a position he wasn't ready for. So was Hunter.

Plouffe recently stated that the Ramos for Capps move might look bad, but the Twins don't win without that move.

Span and Revere for Meyer and May didn't turn out the way we hoped. But at the time, it was a pair of moves seldom seen by the Twins FO. EVERYONE had Meyer dialed in as a stud #1 and May as a #2-3. Never worked out, though May has found himself as an important piece.

Aggie turned out to be OK didn't he? So did Liriano before his arm blew out. Bonser was solid for a brief time. That potential HOF guy Nathan was pretty good, right?

Different times, different eras. Maybe Graterol develops in to something special and we have serious regrets. Maybe he doesn't. Maybe he does and yet Maeda helps us win something.

We just need to leave the past in the past and worry about now and an entirely different FO and infrastructure.
"Nice catch Hayes...don't ever f*****g do it again."

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#38 old nurse

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Posted 19 February 2020 - 09:51 AM

 

I thought the Young trade was included here more because of Garza, although technically he had graduated the prospect list in 2007 too. I guess even in 2008, both guys were still getting valued by their high top 100 ranks from 2007.

 

Humber had lost his top 100 ranking by the time we traded for him too, but due to health/performance rather than graduation.

 

It's not surprising Nathan wasn't on any lists -- not only was he drafted as a shortstop before converting to pitcher, he was actually a mediocre starting pitcher in the minors until converting to relief at age 28.

 

I think top 100 lists can be useful, as long as one understands their limitations and context.

When the limitation are the great percentage of prospects that fail and the numbers of prospects with low or no rankings become good or great players that is a pretty severe limitation.


#39 joemama

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Posted 29 February 2020 - 09:36 PM

 

What team did this Jack Kennedy play for?

Jack played for the Blues; Dan played for the Reds:

https://abcnews.go.c...debate-58255800

 

The Blues won this moment, but the Reds won the season.

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#40 big dog

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Posted 01 March 2020 - 08:18 AM

 

About the guy we trade for (Murphy), I believe he`s never been in a ML game.

Murphy had already hit a home run against the Twins to help the Yankees beat them when we traded for him.He had appeared in 115 ML games before the trade, then 26 for the Twins, and 119 since. 

 

His OPS+ was 100 in 2015 with the Yankees.Then it was 12, yes that's correct 12, with the Twins in 2016.His career number is 66.Eminently forgettable, unless you traded Aaron Hicks to get him.

 

Not a huge deal, I just felt like the Truth Police had to make an appearance here.They will now go back into their closet.

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