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Jake Cave is Primed to Break Out in 2020

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#61 USAFChief

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Posted 18 February 2020 - 07:54 PM

Very impressive. You expertly support my point while killing my poster boy.

You are better than the average bear String.

I agree with all your points on platoon, matchup, rest and the difficulty of expressing the ideal number of AB's for all involved.

I'm just adding potential future trade value, future cost savings to your mix.

Let me ask you this. How do handle Kiriloff if he is called up in June. Let's say the injury that spurs his call up is Cave and he is out for 1 month. Everybody else is healthy.

I doubt the Twins call up Kiriloff to replace an injured Cave, unless Cave was playing every day. If that was the case, Kiriloff would then play every day.

They're not going to put Kiriloff on the bench for any length of time. He's more valuable to the organization then Cave, and they dont need metrics to make that call.

A better question...would they call up Kiriloff if it was Rosario going on the IL?
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#62 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 18 February 2020 - 08:02 PM

 

I see no such edge for Cave over either corner outfielder and Jake isn't really a center fielder, so I'm still not convinced he will even get a spot on the roster. Beyond that, I really don't see him as an ideal fit for the 2020 Twins, even though he has put up satisfactory numbers so far in his career.

Bolded: woof, understatement of the century.

 

But I agree that Cave isn't a great fit for the Twins unless Buxton is injured (sigh) because he doesn't complement Rosario or Kepler.

 

But I'd hate for the Twins to move away from him without getting anything in return, as he's a moderately valuable piece. But no way in hell would I trade Rosario to clear space for him, either.

 

With the expanded roster in 2020, I suspect he'll make the opening man 26. After that, I don't know what should or will happen to him.

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#63 stringer bell

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Posted 18 February 2020 - 08:57 PM

 

 

 

You are biased against Jake Cave for your personal reasons. I won't question your logic, you may be right but you have expressed that Kiriloff's prospect ranking is part of your reasoning so you are possibly over-weighting prospect ranking over actual performance. 

 

If we want our front office to be data driven and I do because the alternative was the scout driven guessing of the previous regime that produced the dark ages. I'm going to ask my front office to be free of all the common research bias mistakes that influence outcomes.

 

If they don't... they can put down the research and bring back Terry Ryan.:)  

I'm not biased against Cave. I think he's a major league player, for sure. As I've said before, I see him as redundant to the 2020 Twins. Of course, that could change over the course of the season, but he's a bit of a hit-first corner outfielder. He doesn't offer game-changing speed or power and he's not an on-base machine, but he's not absent of any of those skills. 

 

If the Twins keep a fifth outfielder (counting Gonzalez as the fourth), I'd like to see a right handed hitter who handles lefties very well and/or really good speed and defense and trading Cave to get such a guy would make sense. I do know the Twins were negotiating to trade Cave in the off season and I think it makes sense given the current outfield situation combined with the prospects in the high minors. 

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#64 Riverbrian

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Posted 18 February 2020 - 10:46 PM

 

I doubt the Twins call up Kiriloff to replace an injured Cave, unless Cave was playing every day. If that was the case, Kiriloff would then play every day.

They're not going to put Kiriloff on the bench for any length of time. He's more valuable to the organization then Cave, and they dont need metrics to make that call.

A better question...would they call up Kiriloff if it was Rosario going on the IL?

 

As String pointed out in his response to my hypothetical scenario, there are many different things to consider when it comes to a decision like adding Kiriloff to the roster. String astutely lists the majority if not all of the major considerations. 

 

"40-man status, service time, contract, options all fit in somewhere and it complicates decisions for promotion and demotion". 

 

Kiriloff would have to out distance those on the 40 man roster to justify a call up because of all the considerations that String listed. 

 

However... if he did out distance the rest and was stroking the ball as my hypothetical scenario presents.

 

Shouldn't Kiriloff getting called up be the way that it works? 

 

Your response "They're not going to put Kiriloff on the bench for any length of time". 

 

And you finish with "A better question...would they call up Kiriloff if it was Rosario going on the IL?"

 

The only thing I can conclude (you've expressed similar before)) from these two statements that I've taken specifically out of a longer body of thought is this:

 

You will protect the starters and eliminate any competition to every inch of their playing time. 

 

If Cave "The Backup" is hurt. You would call up a player like Wade who can fill in that backup spot, not play much and not disturb the starters that were designated prior. 

 

If Rosario "The Starter" is hurt. You would then consider a Kiriloff call up to leap frog past Jake Cave for all of the playing time.

 

So, your assessment of Kiriloff is currently better than Cave but currently worse than Rosario.  

 

Yet the gap between Rosario and Cave is statistically marginally thin with only 2000 plus AB's and potentially 15 million dollars and 3 years of service time separating them significantly. 

 

This is exactly what baseball has done for many decades. I'm praying it stops. :)  

 

 

 

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#65 Riverbrian

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Posted 18 February 2020 - 10:59 PM

 

I'm not biased against Cave. I think he's a major league player, for sure. As I've said before, I see him as redundant to the 2020 Twins. Of course, that could change over the course of the season, but he's a bit of a hit-first corner outfielder. He doesn't offer game-changing speed or power and he's not an on-base machine, but he's not absent of any of those skills. 

 

If the Twins keep a fifth outfielder (counting Gonzalez as the fourth), I'd like to see a right handed hitter who handles lefties very well and/or really good speed and defense and trading Cave to get such a guy would make sense. I do know the Twins were negotiating to trade Cave in the off season and I think it makes sense given the current outfield situation combined with the prospects in the high minors. 

 

Kiriloff is also left-handed and a hit-first corner OF with only the addition of some minor league experience at 1B to make him a little less redundant than Cave.:)

 

If you are not biased against Cave and I'll take your word for it. If you are willing to give Kiriloff 4 starts a week and I agree with you give or take a few starts. Would you do the same for Cave? 

 

As for your 2nd paragraph. I won't argue... CF is perhaps my biggest concern. Buxton going down for an extended period of time in 2020 is the current roster soft spot. 

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#66 stringer bell

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Posted 19 February 2020 - 08:52 AM

 

Kiriloff is also left-handed and a hit-first corner OF with only the addition of some minor league experience at 1B to make him a little less redundant than Cave.:)

 

If you are not biased against Cave and I'll take your word for it. If you are willing to give Kiriloff 4 starts a week and I agree with you give or take a few starts. Would you do the same for Cave? 

 

As for your 2nd paragraph. I won't argue... CF is perhaps my biggest concern. Buxton going down for an extended period of time in 2020 is the current roster soft spot. 

I think what happened with Arraez is indicative of what could happen if a starting outfielder goes down. I assume that Cave and the recalled player would share at bats for a week or so and if someone emerges (as Arraez did) they will continue to get regular at bats. I think the question will be how long the leash is before Plan B is invoked. 

 

What I'm saying is that if for example Wade were recalled for a Kepler injury, that both Cave and Wade would get more than half the starts for a couple weeks. If Cave flashed some power and hit well, he might ascend to being in the regular mix (same for Wade), but it might only be for a week or ten days. If Cave performed as he did through August 1st of last year, then the team might consider someone else for regular or near regular duty.

 

 

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#67 howieramone2

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Posted 19 February 2020 - 08:55 AM

If Buxton goes down for an extended period of time, don't be surprised if we see Lewis.



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