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Might the Minnesota Twins Consider a 6-Man Rotation in 2020?

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#21 Nine of twelve

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Posted 15 February 2020 - 11:55 AM

 

I like the idea of intermittent rest as opposed to a 6 man rotation. Skipping a turn now and then or taking a week or two off on the " Injured List".

Except that the injured list is 15 days this year instead of 10. With a 10-day IL a starter missed only one start plus one more day during the next rotation cycle. 


#22 Nine of twelve

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Posted 15 February 2020 - 11:59 AM

I don't see an advantage to having a regular sixth starter using a roster spot. If an extra day of rest for starters is needed from time to time do a bullpen game or a AAA call-up to implement that.

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#23 DocBauer

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Posted 15 February 2020 - 12:08 PM

The now 15 day mandatory IL does complicate "rest periods" for SP or players of any position. The Twins used that well last season. Still, there are enough bumps and bruises and blisters and the such that I don't think it would be out of the question for someone to be on the IL late in the season if the Twins have a comfortable lead.

With options available, they could shuttle a guy or two to the pen and back to the rotation as well as up and down to facilitate said rest periods.

But these things often work themselves out, as we've seen. Not in favor of a true 6 man rotation, but in favor of cycling guys here and there.

I find the option of partial days off to be interesting, whereby a pair of SP could piggy back about 3 IP each.
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#24 oregontwin

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Posted 15 February 2020 - 01:20 PM

Old guy fondly remembers 4 man rotations. I kind of like the idea of using a starter for 5 innings so he can get the win and regular work, and then turning it over to a long guy for the next 3-4 innings. Rotate who the starter is and who the long relief will be. Might keep games more in control and reduce the number of true relief pitchers a team would need to carry.


#25 Shaitan

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Posted 15 February 2020 - 02:04 PM

 

I don't see an advantage to having a regular sixth starter using a roster spot. If an extra day of rest for starters is needed from time to time do a bullpen game or a AAA call-up to implement that.

 

I think the next development in the post-Hader and opener era will be a few specialist swingmen who start a dozen games a year and alternately pitch in high leverage situations.

 

But like Hader and Andrew Miller before him, there will only be a few noteworthy pitchers to take a new role like that while everybody else calls it the next big thing.


#26 jkcarew

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Posted 15 February 2020 - 03:53 PM

Have your 6th best pitcher pitch more and your best pitcher pitch less...as a deliberate strategy?

This will be done as necessitated by injury and fatigue, not as a deliberate long-term strategy. The best pitchers will always be the best. Pay a guy...what, 2-5 times more than an average starter and 4-8 times more than a good reliever...then have him throw 140 innings? I don’t see this happening for a while. I won’t say never, though.
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#27 ScottyB

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Posted 15 February 2020 - 10:09 PM

Does anyone remember when the Chicago White Sox under Tony LaRussa went long stretches in the eighties with an 8-man pitching staff? Not an 8-man rotation, but a pitching staff of 8 and 17 position players. 4-5 starters and 3-4 relievers (maybe one swing-guy).My how things have changed. Not that long ago that a 10-man pitching staff was the norm. That's the way Bert liked it.


#28 stockdogg

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Posted 16 February 2020 - 12:33 AM

I'd like to see Odorizzi have another healthy season, this time actually qualifying as a starting pitcher.Throwing less than 160 innings in an injury free season is not acceptable.I'd also like to see Rocco and the team throw out the "6 or 100, and you are done" mentality.If we truly want to become playoff winners, these starters will need to be pushed.Way too many times last year were Berrios and Odorizzi pulled a little early. I would be HIGHLY against a 6 man rotation.


#29 stockdogg

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Posted 16 February 2020 - 12:42 AM

right...and 140 innings isn't far from what Odorizzi pitched last year.I know I've already said it once, but I don't think expecting LESS from Odorizzi, Berrios, and others is a good idea.Hopefully Wes is working with them on endurance and fighting through fatigue.Not sure if its them or just the Twins "6 or 100 pitches" way, but it can be extremely frustrating at times.Odorizzi loves to hand out souvenirs at games in the way of foul balls, not sure how you remedy that, other than he continues to try to put hitters away earlier in the count.He was fantastic at that, but only early in the game. 

 I also think Rocco's mindset is "the 3rd time through the lineup vs a starter is very dangerous territory" and while the stats back that up, why not work harder on pushing the GOOD pitchers you have?That's the only way they learn to see what they have left in the tank. 


#30 jorgenswest

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Posted 16 February 2020 - 08:54 AM

right...and 140 innings isn't far from what Odorizzi pitched last year.I know I've already said it once, but I don't think expecting LESS from Odorizzi, Berrios, and others is a good idea.Hopefully Wes is working with them on endurance and fighting through fatigue.Not sure if its them or just the Twins "6 or 100 pitches" way, but it can be extremely frustrating at times.Odorizzi loves to hand out souvenirs at games in the way of foul balls, not sure how you remedy that, other than he continues to try to put hitters away earlier in the count.He was fantastic at that, but only early in the game. 
 I also think Rocco's mindset is "the 3rd time through the lineup vs a starter is very dangerous territory" and while the stats back that up, why not work harder on pushing the GOOD pitchers you have?That's the only way they learn to see what they have left in the tank.


I hope Rocco doesn’t believe that about the third time through because it is a myth. The data is heavily skewed because pitchers get to their pitch limit somewhere in the middle of their third time through. The set of batters faced the third time through is mostly the top of the order.

It can be seen if you look at batters the third time they face a pitcher. Looking at the 50 batters who faced a pitcher a third time at least 100 times last year they had their most success in their second at bat and not their third at bat.

Odorizzi doesn’t give in or give a fat pitch early in the count like Berrios does. Batters see more pitches against him and he is pushing the pitch count earlier and his data is even more skewed.

#31 Nine of twelve

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Posted 16 February 2020 - 01:21 PM

 

I think the next development in the post-Hader and opener era will be a few specialist swingmen who start a dozen games a year and alternately pitch in high leverage situations.

 

But like Hader and Andrew Miller before him, there will only be a few noteworthy pitchers to take a new role like that while everybody else calls it the next big thing.

The problem with this is that it's very rare that a pitcher who is conditioned to pitch an inning or less can, without a period of time to recondition himself, start a game and go 5+ innings. It's somewhat akin to the difference between a sprinter and a marathoner.


#32 Linus

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Posted 16 February 2020 - 05:08 PM

I support RBs theory. Get your 13 best pitchers and use them whenever and however you need them to get outs. Maybe that means guys whose job is to piggyback and it likely means almost everyone has the conditioning to go multiple innings.

#33 stockdogg

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Posted Yesterday, 02:25 AM

Well in the case of Odorizzi, he most certainly falls off 3rd time through the lineup.Berrios last year went from about .670 OPS to .750 OPS 3rd time through, Odorizzi low .600's first 2 , .850 the 3rd time through. Which was better than the year before.My hope is that he continues to "stretch out" and continue to be just as effective around 100 pitches and 3rd time through lineup as he is early on.At least, close the gap.Jake can be dominant first 4-5 innings of games, piling up strikeouts.

 But Rocco most definitely has commented on the "3rd time thru" theory, I just can't find it anywhere at the moment. 


#34 stockdogg

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Posted Yesterday, 02:29 AM

I believe our bullpen got into trouble partly because Odorizzi and other starters, while not having bad starts, were only lasting 5 innings, maybe getting pulled in the 6th.A whole pitching staff can't rely on having good starts max out at 6 innings and expect 3-4 guys to remain fresh and effective for long stretches.Which, yes, I think maybe that's where this "6 man rotation" idea comes from, but I still don't think its a good idea.If Odorizzi is your ace and he gives you a solid 5 and a third, then Berrios goes 6, that puts a lot of strain on the bottom 3 guys as well as bullpen.


#35 jorgenswest

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Posted Yesterday, 09:46 AM

Well in the case of Odorizzi, he most certainly falls off 3rd time through the lineup.Berrios last year went from about .670 OPS to .750 OPS 3rd time through, Odorizzi low .600's first 2 , .850 the 3rd time through. Which was better than the year before.My hope is that he continues to "stretch out" and continue to be just as effective around 100 pitches and 3rd time through lineup as he is early on.At least, close the gap.Jake can be dominant first 4-5 innings of games, piling up strikeouts.
 But Rocco most definitely has commented on the "3rd time thru" theory, I just can't find it anywhere at the moment.


There is an important difference driving the data.

Odorizzi uses more pitches per plate appearance and ends up averaging 21.9 batters faced per game. Berrios uses fewer pitches and averages 26.3 batters per game. The end result is that the Berrios third time through data has much more of the bottom of the line up than the Odorizzi data.

Berrios faces more batters per game and that is a benefit. It is a benefit with a hidden cost. Berrios is crushed when batters hit him with 0-0 and 1-0 counts. Odorizzi does not give in early in counts and has many fewer plate appearances of 1 or 2 pitches. The result is facing fewer batters per outing and a set of batters the third time through that is heavily skewed by the top three batters in the line up and an absence of the bottom third.