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PECOTA Talk

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#1 amjgt

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Posted 11 February 2020 - 01:15 PM

PECOTA has the Twins projected for 93.4 which is 4th highest (LA, NYY, and HOU ahead of us) and has us handily winning the division, beating out Cleveland by 7.3 games and Chicago by 10.9 games.

 

I have two main questions. First to other Baseball Prospectus subscribees. When do individual projections get released. I've just been subscribed for 8 months or so, so this is my first PECOTA day. I assume all the projection stuff is behind the paywall, or is some of it public access (side question: do different BP Subscription levels get you access to different amounts of projection data?)

 

And this leads me to my second question, which is for the moderators....

 

Is the stuff I've shared so far acceptable? I made sure to only share stuff that's super findable on social media. I assume it's a nuanced discussion about sharing enough to have discussions about the info, but not so much that the paywall gets compromised.

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#2 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 11 February 2020 - 01:17 PM

What you've shared is totally fine. We mostly draw the line at copy-and-paste of extended content from behind a paywall, not discussing the results/merit of that content.

 

Discussing this kind of thing only brings awareness to the extended content behind the paywall, which encourages more people to check it out.

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#3 amjgt

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Posted 11 February 2020 - 01:19 PM

I found the answer to my player projections question. Since I have the annual subscription, I am able to download the excel file.


#4 amjgt

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Posted 11 February 2020 - 01:21 PM

After about 2 minutes of looking at it, this spreadsheet alone is worth the annual subscription. 


#5 amjgt

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Posted 11 February 2020 - 01:38 PM

While the spreadsheet still has Maeda on the Dodgers, they have him as a far more valuable player (WARP) than Berrios.

 

50th percentile results:

Maeda - 3.6 WARP

Berrios - 1.6 WARP (Basically the same as Pineda and Odorizzi)

 

So obviously PECOTA is pretty down on Jose. 

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#6 Dman

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Posted 11 February 2020 - 01:43 PM

While I like that PECOTA has us as the top dog for our division this year I don't put much stock in projection systems because injuries and just a bad bounce here or there can make them irrelevant.It is fun to see where they have teams ranked but that is about it for me.


#7 spycake

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Posted 11 February 2020 - 01:53 PM

 

While the spreadsheet still has Maeda on the Dodgers, they have him as a far more valuable player (WARP) than Berrios.

 

50th percentile results:

Maeda - 3.6 WARP

Berrios - 1.6 WARP (Basically the same as Pineda and Odorizzi)

 

So obviously PECOTA is pretty down on Jose. 

Worth noting that WARP is really high on Kenta Maeda, far beyond even FIP / fWAR, and has been for some time.

 

Maeda's career marks to date

 

WARP: 15.4

fWAR: 9.6

bWAR: 5.2

 

I'd be interested to know what components (park, league, defense) are most responsible for that discrepancy.

 

Also, Berrios has been worth 2.9, 2.4, and 2.1 WARP going back the last 3 years -- how do they project him to only 1.6 for 2020, his age 26 season? Fangraphs projects him to 3.1 but that's based on the last 3 years of 4.4, 3.1, and 2.7 -- so they're not buying on 2019, but they're not expecting him to go backward from 2018 or 2017 either.

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#8 Dantes929

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Posted 11 February 2020 - 01:53 PM

 

While the spreadsheet still has Maeda on the Dodgers, they have him as a far more valuable player (WARP) than Berrios.

 

50th percentile results:

Maeda - 3.6 WARP

Berrios - 1.6 WARP (Basically the same as Pineda and Odorizzi)

 

So obviously PECOTA is pretty down on Jose. 

Then I guess I was also. I like Berrios but his value seems to be that he can go an inning or so more than the other two. Not that the innings he does pitch are better than the ones Odo especially but also Pineda pitch. That ability to go 7 instead of 6 just doesn't have the same value it used to especially when we have a good bull pen. The value of Berrios maybe went up a tick when we lost Graterol because I had a good feeling about him coming in for an inning or two and doing better than average for both a major league reliever and more specifically better than our bullpen average.If anything I am more confident in Odorizzi shutting someone down.All this to say I am not surprised he is lumped with Odorizzi and Pineda. I am shocked to see how highly rated Maeda is.  

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#9 amjgt

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Posted 11 February 2020 - 02:02 PM

50th percentile team homeruns = 284

 

 

 

ETA: which would be 2nd to Houston (288)


#10 amjgt

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Posted 11 February 2020 - 02:13 PM

PECOTA has Houston at a pretty middle of the road 63 HBP. I'd say that's low :)

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#11 amjgt

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Posted 11 February 2020 - 02:24 PM

Anyone know how PECOTA deals with pitchers batting stats?

 

There are no columns in the "pitching" spreadsheet for batting statistics and there are no pitchers listed in the "batting" spreadsheet (except for Brendan McCay)


#12 amjgt

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Posted 11 February 2020 - 02:46 PM

They don't project Buxton to have a DRC+ over 100 until around his 85th percentile projection.


#13 USAFChief

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Posted 11 February 2020 - 02:51 PM

 

PECOTA has Houston at a pretty middle of the road 63 HBP. I'd say that's low :)

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#14 dex8425

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Posted 11 February 2020 - 03:24 PM

 

PECOTA has Houston at a pretty middle of the road 63 HBP. I'd say that's low :)

I'll take the over.

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#15 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 11 February 2020 - 07:10 PM

 

While the spreadsheet still has Maeda on the Dodgers, they have him as a far more valuable player (WARP) than Berrios.

 

50th percentile results:

Maeda - 3.6 WARP

Berrios - 1.6 WARP (Basically the same as Pineda and Odorizzi)

 

So obviously PECOTA is pretty down on Jose. 

That is interesting.What is their prediction for Odo??


#16 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 11 February 2020 - 07:11 PM

 

Contender for Post of the Year.

I'll vote for that.


#17 amjgt

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Posted 11 February 2020 - 09:43 PM

That is interesting.What is their prediction for Odo??

Odo and Pineda were 1.6 and 1.5, but I don’t remember which was which. Either way, Pineda, is projected higher per game because they’ve baked in his reduced IP because of the suspension.
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#18 sampleSizeOfOne

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Posted 12 February 2020 - 01:57 AM

PECOTA has Houston at a pretty middle of the road 63 HBP. I'd say that's low :)


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#19 amjgt

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Posted 12 February 2020 - 12:50 PM

I know we've already established that PECOTA loves Maeda but....

 

Some names that have been talked about this winter, in connection to either Free Agency in general, of the Twins' pursuit of top level starting pitching.

 

Name - 50th percentile PECOTA rank among SP:

Cole - 4th

Strasburg - 9th

Maeda - 14th

Bumgarner - 16th

Ray - 31st

Ryu - 33rd

Wheeler - 35th

Gray - 38th

Archer - 39th

Price - 40th

Boyd - 46th

Kuechel - 56th

Berrios - 57th

Pineda - 58th

Odorizzi - 63rd

Hamels - 75th

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#20 John Kelsey

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Posted 13 February 2020 - 12:57 PM

I was most interested to see where the White Sox fell when these win projections started coming out. 

 

82.5 for them this year seems about right but I'd probably still bet the under on that one. 

 

Also, Detroit at 69.5 seems insane to me, I'd be shocked if they hit that.