It is just hard to get excited about Camargo and his recent 642 OPS.Guy seems to have some serious holes in his swing.He can sting the ball like a major league player right now but if he rarely hits it then he'll never make it.Yeah he is only 20 and from what I understand he started the year out hot so maybe an injury dropped his performance but looking back at his stats this kind of feels like who he is.Also his defense at catcher isn't great either.Guy looks like a reclamation project and he is Rule V eligible this next year so lets say he does have a great year then they have to worry about protecting him right away.I fail to see the awesome upside.
Raley on the other hand is essentially ready to contribute right now. Granted he has his warts especially OBP but he looks like a near lock to contribute at the MLB level in some manner.There is still risk that he could end up AAAA but I think he will turn out.I don't see star potential there but at least 4th outfielder potential. I get that given the players in our system there is no spot for Raley and freeing up that 40 man spot has value for us as there will be interesting guys that get cut after spring training but to me it feels like Raley is more likely to make it to MLB than Camargo.
To your point though the guys that do this for a living seem to see pretty equal value for these guys from a prospect perspective.I think FanGraphs had both of them at 35+ FV so those that felt that was the swap might be correct.Being a Stat\numbers watcher Camargo feels more like a throw in than someone to dream on.But hey what do I know I thought Jeffers was a horrible draft pick too.All I am saying is that right now today it is hard to get excited about the guy so I can see why people are overlooking him.
But you're looking at the deal in a vacuum, which doesn't exist for front offices when making these decisions.
Right now, Raley is behind Cave and Wade but also consumes a 40-man roster spot. On top of having two people in front of him, he has two better prospects behind him as well, both of which could make the Minnesota roster this season. Camargo, while unimpressive, does not consume a 40-man roster spot and also plays a position of scarcity.
Raley's clock was ticking in the Twins organization. Unless he starts the 2020 season mashing, there's a good chance the Twins need to consider trying to sneak him through waivers by June or July to make room for the inevitable 40-man roster shuffle that happens mid-season because of injury and/or ineffectiveness.
So, from the Twins perspective, the move likely came down to moving a fungible (to them, anyway) commodity for something before risking losing him for nothing. They managed to get someone at least mildly interesting in return, someone they don't need to make a decision about for at least another eight months.
Sometimes, kicking the can down the road and shuffling prospects as roster management is the smart move and it appears this is one of those instances.