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What others are saying about the trade

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#21 bighat

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Posted 05 February 2020 - 12:29 PM

Seen a few Red Sox fan reaction boards - the overall mood seems to be angry.

 

"They lost Betts for what? Some unproven prospects?"

 

"Who else'd we get? Some AAA pitcher for the Twins we've never heard of? He throws 100, whoop-dee-doo."

 

"I pahked the cah in Havahd Yahd and when I turned on the radio I listened to some guy talking about how we traded Mookster for Buster Gatorade"

 

Etc, etc. The gist of it is that Red Sox fans aren't exactly over the moon thinking they won this deal, and just about nobody's thinking they robbed the Twins blind.

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#22 spycake

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Posted 05 February 2020 - 12:37 PM

 

agreed, but I wasn't including options because he isn't on major league roster. Having options is a positive for keeping Graterol, having to use them is probably means his is not living up to potential. 

I wouldn't say that, in modern MLB. A single option isn't necessarily tied to performance at all. (Especially in an innings control situation like Graterol.)

 

Boston could option Graterol out of spring training to limit his innings, and call him up on May 9th (around the same time Pineda is activated) and he only misses a quarter of the season and they get an entire extra year of control.

 

(Admittedly it's more valuable for a young position players, as pitchers are harder to project.)

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#23 SomeGuy

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Posted 05 February 2020 - 12:49 PM

MLB Trade Rumors has a reader poll on grading the trade from each teams prospective. 

 

I gave the Twins B, its a win now move that improves the team but not an earth shattering improvement. Gave up someone who will probably be good sometime in the future. In the context of win now this is a good trade, it might look worse in the future if people don't consider how this was a going for it move in 2020 and they only look at talent gave vs talent received.

 

From the Dodgers prospective it is hard not to like it. But this is even more of a win now move than the Twins. I gave it an A but if they don't win the world series and lose Betts to FA then the long term outlook might favor the Red Sox. I am calling Price over Maeda as a wash, talent wise Price is better but they lose a year of control, pay him quite a bit, and he is older and showing it health wise.

 

For the Red Sox I am using the context of they accomplished the goal of cutting payroll, they added two good young players that are MLB ready or really close. They got something for Betts before he tested Free Agency, much better return than a qualifying offer. I think they are planning more for 2021-2025 than 2020 and this is a nice trade for them.I gave them a B.

 

As it stood when I took the survey

Twins

B 42%

A 23.55%

C 20.98%

D 8.98%

F 4.44%

 

Dodgers

A 63.28%

B 26.32%

C 7.31%

D 1.62%

F 1.47%

 

Red Sox

C 29.9%

B 27.81%

D 16.36%

A 14.47%

F 11.46%

 

https://www.mlbtrade...etts-trade.html

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#24 Mike Sixel

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Posted 05 February 2020 - 12:54 PM

 

Dan Szymborski at Fangraphs with what sounds like a tepid endorsement:

 

 

But his multi-year ZiPS projections at the bottom of the article don't look too favorably upon the Twins in this deal (although multi-year ZiPS projections are probably more fun than accurate, especially with a wild card like Graterol).

 

https://blogs.fangra...ay-blockbuster/

 

I guess it depends on if you want the fWAR sooner rather than later, and if you want it from a starter more than a RP.........because this is about this year and next year way more than years 3-6 from now.

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#25 dbminn

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Posted 05 February 2020 - 12:55 PM

FWIW, Here's Bowden's take from the Athletic:

 

"Bottom line is I don’t like the actual trade long-term for the Twins, but it’s easy to see why they made it. They needed another starter, and they have a legitimate chance of doing damage in October."


#26 spycake

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Posted 05 February 2020 - 12:59 PM

 

Baseball Reference WAR is heavily dependent on park factors for pitcher's which is hurting his value quite a bit. It's why they also had Mike Minor and Lance Lynn as the 2nd and 3rd highest WAR pitchers in the AL last year because Arlington graded as the most hitter friendly park in 2018.Fangraph's WAR grades him out quite a bit better.

Maeda's career PPFp is only 97.3, which is lower than average but not nearly as extreme as Lynn and Minor in 2019 (both in 109-110 range). The Mets starters all had lower PPFp marks in 2019 than Maeda, as did Bumgarner, as did Kershaw, etc.

 

It might be equal parts park factor and defense which held back Maeda's bWAR compared to fWAR. (And both might be valid questions about Maeda coming over to the Twins.)

 

Average per season in his career: 1.3 bWAR, 2.4 fWAR. Definitely a difference, although both could be in a similar class of pitcher. (FWIW, those bWAR/fWAR averages, on a per-inning basis, are pretty close to Ricky Nolasco's in the 4 years leading up to his Twins contract...)

 

Edit to add: some evidence that Maeda is a bigger beneficiary of Dodger Stadium than most, he has the largest home/road ERA differential of any Dodger starter from 2016-2019 (min. 50 innings in each split)

 

Home:

https://www.fangraph...lter=&sort=5,-1

 

Road:

https://www.fangraph...lter=&sort=5,-1

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#27 spycake

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Posted 05 February 2020 - 01:00 PM

 

"I pahked the cah in Havahd Yahd and when I turned on the radio I listened to some guy talking about how we traded Mookster for Buster Gatorade"

That was only after some Twins fans jumped on their boards and said, "How do you like THEM apples?!"

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#28 akmanak

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Posted 05 February 2020 - 01:01 PM

It's no mystery to me. The offense is better, the defense is better. The bullpen improved, and now our starting pitching has improved.


Best comment of the day. We needed a quality starter and we got one. So much negativity over a young pitcher who because of his delivery likely will blow out his arm in a couple of years.
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#29 spycake

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Posted 05 February 2020 - 01:06 PM

 

I guess it depends on if you want the fWAR sooner rather than later, and if you want it from a starter more than a RP.........because this is about this year and next year way more than years 3-6 from now.

True, but ZiPS has Graterol ahead of Maeda as early as next year. (And this year, he's only behind because it has him in a pen role -- which might happen, although 45 innings could be a conservative estimate!)


#30 Mike Sixel

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Posted 05 February 2020 - 01:09 PM

 

True, but ZiPS has Graterol ahead of Maeda as early as next year. (And this year, he's only behind because it has him in a pen role -- which might happen, although 45 innings could be a conservative estimate!)

 

I don't know....it's pretty much a rounding error after this year.....and Zips has him MUCH better this year. If he was in MN, he'd be in teh bullpen, we already know that. So, I'd go with bullpen estimates for his value to this team.

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#31 spycake

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Posted 05 February 2020 - 01:17 PM

 

I don't know....it's pretty much a rounding error after this year.....and Zips has him MUCH better this year. If he was in MN, he'd be in teh bullpen, we already know that. So, I'd go with bullpen estimates for his value to this team.

ZiPS doesn't really have Maeda as "MUCH better this year", though. The difference seems to be almost entirely in their role. And while the Twins were looking to begin Graterol's season in the pen, they didn't necessarily have to (or have to keep him there all season).

 

And a rounding error after this year would seem to favor the younger, cheaper, more controlled player, correct?

 

Again, I'm not opposed to the deal. And it should be interesting to watch unfold!

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#32 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 05 February 2020 - 01:34 PM

 

I like the side discussion.I loved the Sporting News and even visited their office in St Louis.At one time they and Sports Illustrated were really the sources.Now TSN has really disappeared and SI has a much lower profile and ESPN came out with their magazine (I really disliked the ESPN glossy).Today we turn more to sources like TD, the Athletic, and Bleacher Reports.After their way to ambitious expansion I think ESPN is loosing its spot too. 

 

Thanks for the diversion.

To paraphrase Will Rogers: "All I know about, I read in Twins Daily".

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#33 terrydactyls1947

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Posted 05 February 2020 - 02:07 PM

MLB Network on SiriusXM was discussing the trade this morning. Their feeling was that the Twins were clear winners because of Gaterol's shortcomings. They listed the shortcomings as A) a 100 MPH fastball without much movement; B) a mediocre changeup; and C) no reliable breaking pitches. They doubted he would ever be a starter and he might prove to be a hittable fastball only reliever. They also thought Maetta would be a top 3 pitcher for the Twins and cheap for the next four years which will allow room for other moves. Remember, that's what they said so don't b*#tch at me.
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#34 rico7961

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Posted 05 February 2020 - 02:32 PM

I remember names like Eddie Bane, Willie Banks, Pat Mahomes, Adam Johnson. ALL, prospects who at one time were rated HIGHER than Graterol is right now. The Twins NEVER traded ANY of them hoping for eventual stardom. IT NEVER HAPPENED. So, any prospect trade is a GAMBLE, but in this case I think a worthy one. 

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#35 PDX Twin

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Posted 05 February 2020 - 02:36 PM

 

I remember names like Eddie Bane, Willie Banks, Pat Mahomes, Adam Johnson. ALL, prospects who at one time were rated HIGHER than Graterol is right now. The Twins NEVER traded ANY of them hoping for eventual stardom. IT NEVER HAPPENED. So, any prospect trade is a GAMBLE, but in this case I think a worthy one. 

 

But maybe Graterol's son wins the Super Bowl some day!

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It's great to get out of the cellar ... as long as you bring something with you.


#36 USAFChief

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Posted 05 February 2020 - 02:42 PM



"I pahked the cah in Havahd Yahd and when I turned on the radio I listened to some guy talking about how we traded Mookster for Buster Gatorade"


Ah, that's "Bustah," friend.

"Bustah Gatorade."
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Cutting my carbs...with a pizza slicer.


#37 Darius

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Posted 05 February 2020 - 02:56 PM

This probably isn’t saying a whole lot, not sure. But, word is that Graterol is now the Red Sox #1 overall prospect per MLB pipeline (per Locked on Twins podcast).

#38 SQUIRREL

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Posted 05 February 2020 - 03:24 PM

 

This probably isn’t saying a whole lot, not sure. But, word is that Graterol is now the Red Sox #1 overall prospect per MLB pipeline (per Locked on Twins podcast).

 

I don't think Boston's farm is rated that high? 

 

Checked ... nope ... it's one of the lowest.

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#39 HawkeyeDodger

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Posted 05 February 2020 - 03:26 PM

Hi Guys.I've always like your site.I thought I would give you the low down on Maeda.His contract is structured the way it is because there was an issue with his elbow in his medicals when he came over from Japan.Kenta wanted to be a Dodgers and bet on himself so he took $3 million a year for 8 years with a lot of incentives built in based on innings and starts.He's always taken the ball, never had a real injury issue and has made at least $8 million a year depending on when the Dodgers moved him to the pen.They moved him earlier last year than 2017.  

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The Dodgers would move him to the pen because he was their #5 starter and his slider is just filthy against RH hitters.He should help the Twins against the RH hitters the Yankees have.Kenta rarely has consecutive bad starts and at times looks like a #3 starter.However, he nibbles too much and often is out of gas around the 5th inning because of it.He doesn't trust his fastball and gets hit hard vs lefties.He does have a good change-up that is successful vs lefties.He's also got a good splitter.The inability to trust his fastball as a starter has been a problem that's frustrated management.You will often see him in 2-0 counts throw a get me over curveball to get back into the count. His fastball plays up tremendously from the pen and his slider was devastating to RH hitters when he could just let the fastball go and pair it with his slider.When that slider is on he will have great starts and make teams look silly.Usually lower level teams though.To me he's a 3 or 4 for most teams.  

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He didn't complain and moved to the pen the last two years but he did let it be known this off-season that he wasn't happy about it and wanted to start in the playoffs. He thinks of being moved to the pen as being dishonored.Andrew Freidman's response was pitch better then especially vs lefties.The Dodgers promised Wood a starting spot.They were already planning on putting Urias in the rotation finally.So Kenta would have been competing with May, Gonsolin, Stripling, and Nelson for the 5th spot even before adding Price.

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The Dodgers always did the right thing by him financially, If he came up just short of an incentive they would pay him.They offered to re-structure his contract this past off-season to protect him if he got moved to the pen.He and his agent declined.Rather than having a unhappy camper it was time to move Kenta.I hope he helps you guys beat the Yankees.BTW, Rich Hill will be missed tremendously by the fans and his teammates.He was definitely one of the leaders in the clubhouse.If a rookie came up and wasn't handling his business as a professional he would let them have it.Verdugo got lit up by him two years ago and it made a big impact on Alex.Hill was beloved as a team Dad and is absolutely someone you can trust in a big game.Opponents rarely see guys like Hill take the mound.He's going to give up a dinger just about every game.You just have to hope he hasn't walked anyone leading up to it.Sorry, if this is in the wrong thread.

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#40 HawkeyeDodger

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Posted 05 February 2020 - 03:27 PM

 

I don't think Boston's farm is rated that high? 

It's terrible.

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