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Adrift in a sea of advanced stats

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#21 Vanimal46

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Posted 29 January 2020 - 03:29 PM

I mean, yeah, it's their default for fWAR and thus gets referenced a lot. But I doubt many Fangraphs writers will go to their grave thinking Ricky Nolasco was a better pitcher than his bWAR suggests.

I mean, I'm not even sure what the complaint means. Should fWAR default to RA9-WAR, and then Fangraphs could list "FIP-WAR" separately? Does it really matter? There isn't going to be one perfect number anyway.


The complaint was simple. There’s a stark difference between bWAR and fWAR. I don’t like it.

#22 Rich

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Posted 30 January 2020 - 08:08 AM

 

Hey all, 

 

I see a lot of advanced stats flashed at Twins Daily. 

 

I was a wondering which among them you all saw as a real improvement over traditional triple crown stats for pitchers or hitters?

 

 

Good question. Advanced Sabermetrics can be complicated. I like to keep my performance evaluations simple. To evaluate hitting OPS and War work for me. For starting pitching I use War and the traditional ERA and OBA. For relief pitching I like ERA and Saves. These can be applied to Individual or team performance. I use several sites including mlb.com, FanGraphs, Baseball Reference and Baseball Alamanac.

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#23 spycake

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Posted 31 January 2020 - 10:00 AM

 

The complaint was simple. There’s a stark difference between bWAR and fWAR. I don’t like it.

They measure different things. There's a stark difference between batting average and on-base percentage too.


#24 mlhouse

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Posted 31 January 2020 - 12:59 PM

When you think about this and the myriadof statisitcal information available today, imagine what it was like being a math/statistics nerd and serious baseball fan reading Bill James for the first time in the early1980s.Almost all of these statistics were created by Bill James, although others have modified them over the decades and other concepts James imagined were created with better data.  

 

Runs created.Range factors.Park Adjustments. Win shares. Secondary averages.  

 

I believe that Bill James should be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame for his transformational work in the game.


#25 terrydactyls1947

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Posted 31 January 2020 - 02:34 PM

I got a headache just reading these posts. I felt like I was reading Solder of Fortune magazine with all the Uzi's and RAF-97's. It seems like no one is able to appreciate a player's skills any more unless they can be quantified and used to determine the best. And then argue about about it anyway because one person used some arbitrary metric that another person feels is inferior to their favorite metric.

#26 USAFChief

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Posted 03 February 2020 - 09:07 AM

 

They measure different things. There's a stark difference between batting average and on-base percentage too.

Actually, they purport to measure the same thing. 

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#27 USAFChief

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Posted 03 February 2020 - 09:09 AM

 

Defensive metrics: if you don't look at WAR, or DRS, or UZR, or OAA, what do you look at?  

I'd frame the question as "If you do look at WAR, or DRS, or UZR, or OAA, what are you actually looking at?"

 

There's no real reason to think any of them are accurate, and the fact they so often wildly disagree about a player seems proof of that.

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#28 dex8425

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Posted 03 February 2020 - 09:37 AM

 

I'd frame the question as "If you do look at WAR, or DRS, or UZR, or OAA, what are you actually looking at?"

 

There's no real reason to think any of them are accurate, and the fact they so often wildly disagree about a player seems proof of that.

I wouldn't say they disagree about a player. They measure different parts of defense. For example, OAA (new) only measures outfield catches using catch probability. OAA doesn't differentiate outfield positions either. That's why every centerfielder has a positive OAA number. They should all be better at catching than corner outfielders.But not every centerfielder has the same UZR (not new) because UZR is positional. Some have poor arms. Some throw to the wrong base more than others. 

 

That's why I think you have to look at all of these but also understand what they mean. You can figure out what part of defense a player is poor or elite at. Some are not elite at every facet of defense. 

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#29 Mike Sixel

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Posted 03 February 2020 - 11:35 AM

 

I got a headache just reading these posts. I felt like I was reading Solder of Fortune magazine with all the Uzi's and RAF-97's. It seems like no one is able to appreciate a player's skills any more unless they can be quantified and used to determine the best. And then argue about about it anyway because one person used some arbitrary metric that another person feels is inferior to their favorite metric.

 

I have no idea what this post means? Not one person here has said they only enjoy skills if they can be measured. Really. Not one person.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#30 Vanimal46

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Posted 03 February 2020 - 12:14 PM

They measure different things. There's a stark difference between batting average and on-base percentage too.


Interesting that it’s never presented that way. Writers use the higher WAR number and ignore the other one if they want to pump up a player. Vice versa if a writer wants to throw caution on a player.

#31 Mike Sixel

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Posted 03 February 2020 - 01:47 PM

 

Interesting that it’s never presented that way. Writers use the higher WAR number and ignore the other one if they want to pump up a player. Vice versa if a writer wants to throw caution on a player.

 

You must be reading different sites than me. I never see that. Outside TD.....

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#32 spycake

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Posted 03 February 2020 - 01:54 PM

 

Actually, they purport to measure the same thing. 

Well, to the extent they measure the same thing, they do so in different ways. Just like batting average and on-base percentage both measure a player's offensive performance, but in different ways.

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#33 terrydactyls1947

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Posted 03 February 2020 - 02:31 PM

I have no idea what this post means? Not one person here has said they only enjoy skills if they can be measured. Really. Not one person.


Are you asking if you don't know what the post means? Or did you mean to say that you didn't know what the post means?

#34 Mike Sixel

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Posted 03 February 2020 - 03:47 PM

 

Are you asking if you don't know what the post means? Or did you mean to say that you didn't know what the post means?

 

Like, I don't understand the post. No one has said they can't enjoy baseball w/o stats. No one. 

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#35 USAFChief

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Posted 04 February 2020 - 11:48 AM

 

Well, to the extent they measure the same thing, they do so in different ways. Just like batting average and on-base percentage both measure a player's offensive performance, but in different ways.

well, no, they both purport to identify the same performance, and assign the same value: "wins above replacement." 

 

batting average and on-base percentage are different things...and both are measured and reported the same no matter if you go to Fangraphs or Baseball Ref. You don't get a BA of .275 on Fangraphs and .375 on BR.

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#36 spycake

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Posted 04 February 2020 - 12:06 PM

 

well, no, they both purport to identify the same performance, and assign the same value: "wins above replacement." 

 

batting average and on-base percentage are different things...and both are measured and reported the same no matter if you go to Fangraphs or Baseball Ref. You don't get a BA of .275 on Fangraphs and .375 on BR.

There are different ways to measure performance, and I wouldn't expect them all to be equal.

 

So you just object to them having the same name? I use fWAR or bWAR to denote them, at least when there's a notable difference.

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#37 Mike Sixel

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Posted 04 February 2020 - 04:14 PM

 

well, no, they both purport to identify the same performance, and assign the same value: "wins above replacement." 

 

batting average and on-base percentage are different things...and both are measured and reported the same no matter if you go to Fangraphs or Baseball Ref. You don't get a BA of .275 on Fangraphs and .375 on BR.

 

It's not unique to this to have different ways to measure the same thing.....For example, what is the fastest pinewood derby car? The one that races one time at half the time as all the others, and breaks? Or the one that wins the finals? 

 

Is the BEST baseball team really the WS winner, or is it more likely the regular season best record is the best team (there are league that award those two things differently)?

 

I could probably spend hours typing up examples of "measuring the same thing" that use different processes for that measurement.

 

Here's an easy one, does water boil at 212 degrees, or 100?

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#38 SQUIRREL

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Posted 05 February 2020 - 12:27 AM

 
Here's an easy one, does water boil at 212 degrees, or 100?


Yes
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#39 twinsfanstreif

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Posted 05 February 2020 - 06:34 AM

I don't really understand how most of these things are calculated but I noticed the huge difference in fWAR and bWAR when looking up Maeda vs Gibson. Both were lower in bWAR than fWAR but the weird part is there is a 1WAR difference in bWAR between them in advantage of Maeda. On fWAR Gibson gets a .1 advantage despite having worse metrics across the board except a very slight advantage in xFIP. Does it really hold that much weight? It's almost like none of the other metrics mattered. Also fWAR was very favorable to Martin Perez last year which is weird

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#40 Sconnie

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Posted 05 February 2020 - 08:18 PM

I don't really understand how most of these things are calculated but I noticed the huge difference in fWAR and bWAR when looking up Maeda vs Gibson. Both were lower in bWAR than fWAR but the weird part is there is a 1WAR difference in bWAR between them in advantage of Maeda. On fWAR Gibson gets a .1 advantage despite having worse metrics across the board except a very slight advantage in xFIP. Does it really hold that much weight? It's almost like none of the other metrics mattered. Also fWAR was very favorable to Martin Perez last year which is weird

https://www.baseball...ned_pitch.shtml

Baseball reference down a ways has a good explainer detailing the differences between bWAR and fWAR.

The heading is “ How this Compares to FanGraphs Pitcher WAR” and it’s roughly the 14th bolded heading.

I like FIP in my WAR as it holds home runs steady across league average, but comparing the two can give you some quick and dirty flavor as to how the pitcher earned their WAR.