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Fangraphs ZiPS Projections:

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#1 scottz

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Posted 23 January 2020 - 01:19 PM

https://blogs.fangra...innesota-twins/

 

A lot of interesting stuff for those who like projection systems. One quote that stood out to me in the Prospects section: "Given where the Twins are right now, if they can land a real difference-maker on the mound with a package centered around Lewis or Alex Kirilloff, I would pull that trigger in an instant."

 

Also, from the category of "projection systems have a sense of humor", the "No. 1 Comp" for Nick Gordon at this point is...Ron Gardenhire.

 

Discuss.

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#2 Mike Frasier Law

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Posted 23 January 2020 - 01:35 PM

Arraez winning the batting title. I love it.

 

If we could get a front-line starter by trading Lewis or Kirilloff, I think we have to do it. Particularly if it's for more than a year. Opportunities to with championships don't come around often for us. With our depth, we wouldn't be sacrificing the team's future by doing so.


#3 MMMordabito

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Posted 23 January 2020 - 01:51 PM

Haha ... Nick Gordon is comp'd to Gardy.

 

If he gets called up, will he get ejected regularly and call his teammates Donaldy, Sanosy, Arraezy and Jorgy?


#4 jkcarew

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Posted 23 January 2020 - 01:53 PM

"While ZiPS still sees Royce Lewis ending up with more career WAR than Nick Gordon, that gap is much narrower than scouts’ perceptions of the two middle infielders would suggest."

 

(blink)

 

 


#5 amjgt

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Posted 23 January 2020 - 01:54 PM

Lets make sure to keep Manny Machado far away from Arraez


#6 amjgt

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Posted 23 January 2020 - 01:55 PM

 

Arraez winning the batting title. I love it.

 

If we could get a front-line starter by trading Lewis or Kirilloff, I think we have to do it. Particularly if it's for more than a year. Opportunities to with championships don't come around often for us. With our depth, we wouldn't be sacrificing the team's future by doing so.

 

Seems like there was a typo in the sentence about the batting title


#7 Puckett34

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Posted 23 January 2020 - 02:51 PM

 

 

 

Also, from the category of "projection systems have a sense of humor", the "No. 1 Comp" for Nick Gordon at this point is...Ron Gardenhire.

 

Discuss.

I find it funnier that Jose Berrios comp is Steve Rogers. Literally a Captain America comp.

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Hit dingers. Never bunt.

#8 goulik

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Posted 23 January 2020 - 05:50 PM

 

"While ZiPS still sees Royce Lewis ending up with more career WAR than Nick Gordon, that gap is much narrower than scouts’ perceptions of the two middle infielders would suggest."

 

(blink)

Ewww.....


#9 Vanimal46

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Posted 24 January 2020 - 10:05 AM

The positives:

- 11 batters are projected to be at or above 100 OPS+
- 17 pitchers are projected to be at or above 100 ERA+
- Arraez is a god in this projection. Winning the batting title would be awesome to see!

The negatives:

- Question marks surrounding Berrios and Odorizzi. Probably why Odorizzi took the QO...
- Dobnak 147 innings? I don’t want to see that.
- Lewis’ decline. Which has been a concern of mine for over a year now.

#10 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 24 January 2020 - 11:19 AM

Goodness, Dobnak was a rookie last year and did pretty well. If he builds off of 2019, I think we'll all be happy if he pitches 150 innings.


#11 Major League Ready

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Posted 24 January 2020 - 12:53 PM

 

Goodness, Dobnak was a rookie last year and did pretty well. If he builds off of 2019, I think we'll all be happy if he pitches 150 innings.

 

Obviously a SSS with only 28 IP 1.59 ERA and a 2.91 FIP in 2019.I would be quite unreasonable to expect 147 innings with the same ERA but how nice would it be if his ERA was equivalent to his FIP from last year? Oh happy day!

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#12 spycake

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Posted 24 January 2020 - 01:14 PM

 

- Dobnak 147 innings? I don’t want to see that.

Keep in mind, this isn't a playing time projection. Every player listed is just projected for a "full" season based on their recent playing time (majors + minors).

 

Fangraphs Depth Charts attempts to project playing time, and they have Dobnak at 85 innings (but worse rate stats, based on Steamer projections):

https://www.fangraph...on=ALL&teamid=8

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