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2020 Baseball America Top 100 Prospects

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#21 drivlikejehu

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Posted 23 January 2020 - 09:09 AM

 

Trading Lewis/Kirilloff for Thor sounds pretty good right now eh? That’s why I am always up for trading prospects... Lewis needs a big year at the plate to get back to top 10. If Kirilloff is indeed an elite prospect, he needs to be on the MLB team this year. He’s not getting any younger...

 

That's a fictional trade scenario, not something that actually could have happened.

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#22 LylesCrocodiles

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Posted 23 January 2020 - 09:36 AM

I’m not sure any Twins prospect is a sure thing at this point in time. Lewis Kirilloff and Larnach are all first round picks and have had eyes on them for years. They seem safer bets to succeed than the pitchers. I don’t think any of the 3 will be a true ace (Cole Scherzer Verlander etc) and odds are good that just one of them develops into a No 2/3 caliber SP. Up to the front office to figure out which one to keep. I will hedge my bet on Balazovic.

#23 jkcarew

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Posted 23 January 2020 - 10:03 AM

 

Trading Lewis/Kirilloff for Thor sounds pretty good right now eh? That’s why I am always up for trading prospects... Lewis needs a big year at the plate to get back to top 10. If Kirilloff is indeed an elite prospect, he needs to be on the MLB team this year. He’s not getting any younger...

I get the point on the trade, and agree. But, I have no problem with Kirilloff spending another year in the minors. He wasn't very healthy last year, and unless some guys get injured or fall off a performance cliff in 2020, he won't be needed this season. Let him get back to raking in the minors, which he didn't do last year. Late season call-up and 2021 arrival is fine with me...but yes, if the Twins don't see that scenario, they probably should be trading him real soon.


#24 jkcarew

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Posted 23 January 2020 - 10:09 AM

 

I think if Rooker played out the year last year he would have made the top 10 1st baseman.He was just getting hot when he got hurt.He also made teh top 10 last year. 

 

Diaz was and is very good but they needed relief help last year and Miami threw in a decent pitching prospect as well.Not sure how many 1st baseman types we need with Rooker, Kirilloff and Larnach potentially there along with Sano who is already in that spot.So trading for pitching there seemed to make sense and that is apparently who Miami wanted.

Rooker didn't play one inning of first-base last year. I think the point on the Diaz trade still holds...but, fwiw, Rooker is probably more likely to appear on outfield prospect lists still.


#25 Dman

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Posted 23 January 2020 - 10:29 AM

 

Rooker didn't play one inning of first-base last year. I think the point on the Diaz trade still holds...but, fwiw, Rooker is probably more likely to appear on outfield prospect lists still.

 

I honestly didn't realize he did not play first base at all last year.That might impact why he wasn't on this years top 10 list.He was a 1st basemen in college though so he certainly can play that position if needed.I know there was some talk that his defense wasn't that great at first base so maybe the Twins feel outfield is best?Not sure.Thing is breaking into this outfield is no easy task either.I really wonder how all this is going shake out.


#26 FormerMinnasotan

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Posted 23 January 2020 - 10:34 AM

Graterol that low on their hot 100 list already having major league time in to me signifies that they do not believe he has that high of ceiling anymore.

Well, it’s been reported that the Twins are simply sticking Graterol in the bullpen this year so I’d guess Graterol is seen as a reliever more so than a starter.

#27 FormerMinnasotan

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Posted 23 January 2020 - 10:51 AM

I wonder why the low ranking for Balazovic? His numbers are a bit better than solid and his pitching arsenal has been lauded by scouts as well improved from a year ago. And...technically he did go through 3 levels last year (A, A+, AA for playoffs). A rise like that and no love from MLB scouts, what gives?

#28 DanFordWasTheMan

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Posted 23 January 2020 - 10:54 AM

I will never claim to be a list/ranking guru, but I would have put Balazovic higher on the list, for three reasons.

 

First, his numbers across two levels last year weren't just strong, they were simply without weak points--with the possible exception of him doing his work in more pitching-friendly leagues. Extremely low WHIP, strong so/w ratios, low hr/9 rates...he wasn't just good, he was good in nearly every statistical measure.

 

Second, unlike Graterol and Duran, there's no talk or thoughts about needing him to move to the bullpen.

 

Third, he's both young, (21 years-old through most of next season) and he has even more projection left. He hasn't fully grown into his frame. And being Canadian, you could even argue he hasn't had the development time of his peers.

 

I predict he's in the top 30 by midseason.

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#29 darin617

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Posted 23 January 2020 - 11:36 AM

Anyone notice Mackenzie Gore #6 overall?

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#30 mikelink45

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Posted 23 January 2020 - 11:36 AM

 

Trading Lewis/Kirilloff for Thor sounds pretty good right now eh? That’s why I am always up for trading prospects... Lewis needs a big year at the plate to get back to top 10. If Kirilloff is indeed an elite prospect, he needs to be on the MLB team this year. He’s not getting any younger...

I am with you.I am not for giving away prospects, but the truly great players are already on rosters by now and we have seen the Gordons and Gonsalves excitement slip away with the years.If we can move them on a really good pitcher I am for it, but it has to be really good.

 

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#31 amjgt

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Posted 23 January 2020 - 11:53 AM

MLB Pipeline on MLB.com seems to be crazy low on Twins prospects.

 

Alex Kirilloff is #10 in their OF rankings. Larnach not mentioned


#32 birdwatcher

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Posted 23 January 2020 - 12:01 PM

 

For what it's worth, Fangraphs actually has Duran ranked ahead of both Graterol and Balazovic.

 

 

FanGraphs has the three bunched together as our 4,5,and 6 prospects. All received 50 FV values, as did Kirilloff and Larnach, who FanGraphs has as our #2 prospect now. Lewis is in lofty territory with them, two grades up at 60 FV.

 

FG has Duran's ETA as 2020, which indicates a pretty high belief in the guy.

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#33 birdwatcher

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Posted 23 January 2020 - 12:07 PM

 

I am with you.I am not for giving away prospects, but the truly great players are already on rosters by now and we have seen the Gordons and Gonsalves excitement slip away with the years.If we can move them on a really good pitcher I am for it, but it has to be really good.

 

 

Neither Gonsalves or Gordon were ever really thought of in the same way as Kirilloff and Lewis. Those last two could easily go either way: they could shoot up the board or they could languish. Shooting up the board was never thought to be something we'd see from Gordon, whose ceiling was "decent every day 2B, or Gonsalves, whose ceiling was back end starter.

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#34 howieramone2

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Posted 23 January 2020 - 12:31 PM

 

Trading Lewis/Kirilloff for Thor sounds pretty good right now eh? That’s why I am always up for trading prospects... Lewis needs a big year at the plate to get back to top 10. If Kirilloff is indeed an elite prospect, he needs to be on the MLB team this year. He’s not getting any younger...

Several months ago MLBTR or MLB.com., I don't remember which, had Thor on their 20 most overrated players list. After reading the article, my thought was Chris Archer. Maybe one of our members will use the new arithmetic, and take a deeper look. I do know the Mets G.M. announced for all to hear, several times, he would not be available this offseason.

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#35 Dman

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Posted 23 January 2020 - 12:43 PM

 

MLB Pipeline on MLB.com seems to be crazy low on Twins prospects.

 

Alex Kirilloff is #10 in their OF rankings. Larnach not mentioned

 

Yeah what Bleday did in High A compared to Larnach makes his list a joke. He gives Bleday a 60 power rating and Larnach 50 and Larnach completely outslugged him this year.Yeah I get it is all about potential but they are the same age and Larnach is just better.Hey he can decide potential any way he wants but the list looks biased to me.Given what I have seen the top 10 doesn't really mean much just something to put together and talk about.  

 

Winning these lists is nice but doesn't mean much as Garver and Arraez say Hello.They were never on these lists and Garver was one of the best catchers in MLB last year and Arreaz was in rookie of the year conversations.They couldn't have bought there way onto one of these top 10 lists in MILB?The talent experts only can predict so much.I think he is dead wrong not to have Larnach on there though.

 

Kirrilloff had a down year.with only a 750 OPS he is about as high as he could put him in fact statistically I bet there were better options but his stats from last year probably helped him hang on this year.

 

Same for Lewis he had a down year and is living off of last years stats and potential.

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#36 Ben Noble

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Posted 23 January 2020 - 12:58 PM

 

FanGraphs has the three bunched together as our 4,5,and 6 prospects. All received 50 FV values, as did Kirilloff and Larnach, who FanGraphs has as our #2 prospect now. Lewis is in lofty territory with them, two grades up at 60 FV.

 

FG has Duran's ETA as 2020, which indicates a pretty high belief in the guy.

 

Exactly, rated the same but ranked differently. Not sure why it seems that so many on this board would be unwilling to move Graterol or Balazovic (unless perhaps for a true ace), but I regularly see Duran get thrown into hypothetical trade propositions seemingly as an afterthought. Do people confuse him with Alcala?

 

I wonder if those that still cry foul at the Escobar trade would feel differently if we had swapped a pending free agent for Graterol or Balazovic, rather than Duran. 

 

Personally, I've been really high on Duran since we acquired him. But more than anything, I'm extremely excited to have three starters in that tier. History has shown us that you need multiple minor league pitchers with ace upside, because some will end up as relievers (May), others won't make it at all (Meyer), and many will crest as mid-rotation starters.

 

Having all three of these guys doesn't guarantee an ace by any stretch of the imagination, but it definitely improves our odds.

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#37 birdwatcher

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Posted 23 January 2020 - 01:14 PM

Random thoughts:

 

1. If prospect talent were evenly distributed, we'd have three prospects on this list. I keep coming back to my insistent belief that having a prospect pipeline that is well above average is essential to any chance of sustained excellence. And yes, of course it has to be put to good use.

 

2. I'm far less concerned with whether any specific pitcher becomes productive in relief versus in the rotation, as long as the high-quality prospect numbers ( I arbitrarily think of FG's 40 FV as a good measure of quality ) are there. Right now, I think I just counted 17 Twins pitching prospects in FG with a 40 FV or better.

 

3. The important part of this last point? If a guy nudges his way into an already-solid bullpen, we have an opportunity to move the guy being replaced. Example: the ill-fated Sam Dyson trade cost us TWO 40 FV pitching prospects, Kai-Wei Teng and Prelander Berroa, plus 40+ FV OF Jaylin Davis. Consider this: Teng and Berroa, whose ETA is 2020, are in the same category as Stashak, Enlow, Sands, Colina, Alcala, Smeltzer, Rijo, Winder, Cano, and Moran. And Davis slots in with Urbina, Javier, Miranda, and Wallner. The point is, whether you move a roster guy or a prospect in this kind of situation, you're dealing with some serious trade value. It can be argued, as I often do, that moving the roster guy creates greater value for you.

 

4. The everyday roster for the Twins is regarded as among the very best in all of baseball. We have three prospects in Lewis, Larnach, and Kirilloff who will have to demonstrate that they represent an upgrade over someone on a talent-rich roster in the next year or so. If guys like Rosario, Buxton, and Kepler refuse to be pushed aside because they remain the better alternative, what a great problem to have.

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#38 jkcarew

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Posted 23 January 2020 - 01:28 PM

 

Exactly, rated the same but ranked differently. Not sure why it seems that so many on this board would be unwilling to move Graterol or Balazovic (unless perhaps for a true ace), but I regularly see Duran get thrown into hypothetical trade propositions seemingly as an afterthought. Do people confuse him with Alcala?

Can't speak for others, but I'm not crazy about moving any of the top arms, including Duran. We need arms, and we'll need them soon (pending new trades/signings, we'll be short again in 2021). To the extent the Twins are motivated to make a big move, they should still be making that move from an area of organizational depth, not weakness. Of course, a team like the Mets might demand a young arm be included in a deal for Thor (as an example), but that certainly wouldn't be my going-in position if I were the Twins. First-basemen, corner outfielders...even short-stops, we got. Pitching...not so much.

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#39 LylesCrocodiles

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Posted 23 January 2020 - 09:55 PM

I’d love to keep all the prospects and they all help at the ML level. But that’s not how it works. We all get that. But a lot of comments this offseason have revolved around finding an ace. Or a 1A/B pairing with Berríos. And then we see there are 3 prospects in the pipeline that are top 100 guys. One of them did well in relief in his ML debut. Duran and Balazovic advanced to the upper levels. And when this team opens spring training in a month they will have 2 SP/opener spots open at the big league level. And for some reason Graterol is (for now) going to the bullpen. If he earns his chance he should get the opportunity to start IMO. I think the upside of giving Graterol a chance to start far outweighs the impact he can provide in 1-2 inning stints. Especially if this team is as good as everyone is expecting. I think this team would do fine with Graterol as the No 5 guy. Duran and Balazovic could be options in the second half. Let’s find out what we’ve got while we have a top 5 offense.
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#40 h2oface

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Posted 24 January 2020 - 02:52 AM

 

.....Winning these lists is nice but doesn't mean much as Garver and Arraez say Hello.They were never on these lists and Garver was one of the best catchers in MLB last year and Arreaz was in rookie of the year conversations.They couldn't have bought there [sic] way onto one of these top 10 lists in MILB?The talent experts only can predict so much.I think he is dead wrong not to have Larnach on there though.

 

Absolutely. Mostly, year by year, it shows how those that get paid to guess right, are mostly wrong.