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Trading for Price and Betts

windows starting pitching trade market all in dreams
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#41 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 21 January 2020 - 10:45 PM

 

 
Utterly ridiculous. Makes no sense at all. An absolute waste of space. Twins are not set up for “ win this year “ mentality. Unlike Fletcher’s Wild trade deadline abortions, Twins front office is not that stupid. Garbage article.

First, this isn't an "article", it's a user-generated post about what the Twins could possibly do this offseason.

 

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#42 twins_89

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Posted 22 January 2020 - 12:46 AM

Two things make this extremely unlikely. First, I see no realistic chance the Twins take on that much additional salary. Second, giving up so much prospect capital while taking back Price is a significant overpay and should be avoided at all costs.

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#43 RaoulDuke

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Posted 22 January 2020 - 12:53 AM

I think they should trade for Archer.Costs less in salary and somewhere in the same realm prospect wise.Probably a better bet to bounce back than Price because of his youth + more likely to get a boost from a modern analytical approach.

 

Saving Gerrit Cole from Pittsburg sure worked out well for the Astros.

 

 


#44 akmanak

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Posted 22 January 2020 - 06:05 AM

I don't think there is any reason to spend another dime on offense at this point. Unlike quality pitching you could easily pick someone up for much cheaper around the trade deadline if need be.

When it comes to pitching, well that is a different story but I really don't think Price is worth the "price" we would have to give up to obtain him.

#45 ewen21

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Posted 22 January 2020 - 07:57 AM

I have no interest in a guy like Price. He has cache because of what he did years ago. He is not the same guy and even when he was he was notoriously horrendous against the Yankees. Not plain old bad....I’m talking horrendous.

If the goal is to get someplace in the playoffs this isn’t the answer.

I’m ok with those names you want to trade. Lewis is not Derek Jeter. He’s a tradable piece. That is how all prospects should be viewed at this point. We have a nucleus of guys in their mid 20s so we don’t need to treat prospects like they’re gold. Treat them like they are meat. Use them.
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#46 ewen21

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Posted 22 January 2020 - 07:59 AM

I think they should trade for Archer. Costs less in salary and somewhere in the same realm prospect wise. Probably a better bet to bounce back than Price because of his youth + more likely to get a boost from a modern analytical approach.


Archer has been mediocre for a few years. No thanks
Saving Gerrit Cole from Pittsburg sure worked out well for the Astros.


#47 beckmt

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Posted 22 January 2020 - 08:26 AM

.Hard pass, let someone else pay the price.Unfortunately, the players pay the price for a situation like the Red Sox, Cubs, etc are in.Over 30 players unless elite are going to be on 1 - 2 year deals and on make good contracts the minute they have an off year. 

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#48 Tomj14

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Posted 22 January 2020 - 08:30 AM

 

Of course they want to be World Series champions. My argument is that it would be better to follow the Giants, Royals and Astros (minus the cheating) models of getting there with mostly homegrown talent on rookie or reasonable contracts so they can contend for multiple years. It feels like a lot of Twins fans want to see Falvey follow the Dombrowski model, empty the prospect cupboard and overpay in free agency, whatever it takes to win now. Even if they chose that course of action and actually won I have a feeling those same fans would be the first ones complaining when the bottom falls out and we’re back to tank mode. As a long time Twins and Wolves fan I’m tired of tank mode and glad that this FO seems to have a much more long-term focused approach.

I haven't seen anybody on this site type the Twins need to empty the cupboard in a trade. If the twins minor league system is as great as everybody thinks (and I do) trading two pieces for a few years of control for a top notch pitcher isn't in anyway the Dombrowski model. As far as overpaying free agents that is the cost of doing business in MLB if you want top notch talent and if you want to win and win big sometimes you have to bite the bullet when the window is open.

 

Trading for a player that is 1 playing season away from free agency with almost no chance of him resigning is not usually a good move, but if you could do it was middle tier or flier prospects when you are loaded in the minors isn't a bad idea, trading away your top guys is.

 

For Chris Sale I would seriously have to consider that trade, he is 30 years old and has been one of the best pitchers on the planet for quite a few years, the innings the last two years are a being worrisome but he even with that he has been better than Odo and the Twins are paying him 17.8


#49 Number3

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Posted 22 January 2020 - 08:34 AM

Donaldson signing just not enough? That made perfect sense because it moves Sano to first which was essentially open. Plus it improves the offense and defense at the same time and adds a little fire to the lineup. But that is still not enough. The core of the lineup that won 101 games deserves to be run out there one more time at leastSigning a Betts or a Price for big bucks would destroy the makeup of the team and would be a disaster. I would like Betts to be available as a ringer if the Twins have an off season bowling team. He is great on those PBA/amateur tv bowling tournaments.


#50 Tomj14

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Posted 22 January 2020 - 08:37 AM

 

I wouldn't mortgage the near future for those two and also tie up salary.Hard no on any Lewis, Larnach, Kirilloff, Balz, Duran, Alcala, and Graterol offers (basically top 5, 5-10 I wouldn't either).

 

Raley, Javier, Gordon, Raley, Wade, Cave---yes.

I believe the Twins could offer the 6 you have there to every team in the league and no team would give you a good starting pitcher or even a prospect as good the 5 you wouldn't trade (except Alcala), if you only offer quantity in trades with no quality that is what you get in return.
 


#51 dex8425

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Posted 22 January 2020 - 09:16 AM

 

Without being able to re-sign Betts, you are giving up a whole heck of a lot for 2 more years of Price.While Betts and Price being in the fold for 2020 would increase the Twins WS odds, it doesn't guarantee them anything.I'd have to pass.If you are going to trade away Lewis, IMO, it needs to be for a younger SP with at least 2 years or control.

Especially if we're ALSO trading away Jordy Blaze. I'm almost more reluctant to give up Balazovic than I am Lewis at this point if I'm the Twins, given that he looks like the most sure-thing starting pitching prospect in our system.

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#52 dex8425

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Posted 22 January 2020 - 09:34 AM

Of course the Red Sox are starting the negotiations high for now. The longer you wait the more the price (pun intended) comes down. 

 

Like others have said I don't think it's worth talking about this because the Twins are not going to have a 180 million dollar payroll, unfortunately. 

 

If they could swing 180 million for one year, I'd wait until March, then offer them:

1. Rosario or Cave, whichever one they want

2. Luke Raley

3. Royce Lewis

 

See if that gets Bloom to pick up the phone if we eat all of Price's contract. 


#53 dex8425

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Posted 22 January 2020 - 09:36 AM

 

 I would like Betts to be available as a ringer if the Twins have an off season bowling team. He is great on those PBA/amateur tv bowling tournaments.

He is actually really good at bowling, thanks for reminding me.  


#54 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 22 January 2020 - 09:45 AM

Of course the Red Sox are starting the negotiations high for now. The longer you wait the more the price (pun intended) comes down.

Like others have said I don't think it's worth talking about this because the Twins are not going to have a 180 million dollar payroll, unfortunately.

If they could swing 180 million for one year, I'd wait until March, then offer them:
1. Rosario or Cave, whichever one they want
2. Luke Raley
3. Royce Lewis

See if that gets Bloom to pick up the phone if we eat all of Price's contract.


If we're eating the entire contract, we should be getting Betts for nothing.
Really we should still be getting a pretty good prospect in addition to Betts, but in an effort to get the deal done, I could see forgoing that.
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#55 ewen21

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Posted 22 January 2020 - 10:49 AM

I wouldn't mortgage the near future for those two and also tie up salary. Hard no on any Lewis, Larnach, Kirilloff, Balz, Duran, Alcala, and Graterol offers (basically top 5, 5-10 I wouldn't either).

Raley, Javier, Gordon, Raley, Wade, Cave---yes.


Ick. I’m sorry but I’m tired of that phrase

Up and down our lineup we have guys under 28 years old. These are good everyday players and we have several locked up for a few years. How is trading Lewis and any other position player “mortgaging the future”??
We are a young team as it is with two notable players exceptions.

When you have a nucleus of players in their mid-20s you might as well deal prospects to complement the young talent. This is something Terry Ryan never seemed to understand.

All that said, NO WAY on Price and why trade anything for Betts? I like Betts but that doesn’t make sense
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#56 bustedstuff88

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Posted 22 January 2020 - 12:19 PM

Im confused...I dont know why we would ever give them anything if we are the ones taking on the bad contract and they indeed want to get away from the luxury tax threshold....

 

So my trade would be taking on Price and Betts salaries and that is all. Redsox get payroll relief.

 

No way they are getting anything of substance back. No way in hell. 

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#57 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 22 January 2020 - 01:12 PM

 

You are also getting a first round pick when Betts turns down your qualifying offer, but I appreciate the insight.

I believe this rule has changed. The team that signs him no longer gives up a first.  


#58 Major League Ready

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Posted 22 January 2020 - 01:34 PM

 

Unreasonable compared to what?

We always compare this team to other markets in terms of what it can spend. But what about other pro teams in this market:

I’m sure there is more recent data, but in 2015 the Twins made over $21M in profit. No other professional sports team in the market netted more than $7 (Vikings about $5M, T-Wolves about $6M, Wild took a loss).

It would be unreasonable to Pohlads, who like to maintain their massive profits. But, even after signing Donaldson, it can still be argued that what they are doing in terms of payroll is unreasonable.

Keep in mind they bought the team for $44M. They’ve made a billion in unrealized appreciation and they make 50% return on their initial investment annually (based on 2015 numbers....I’m sure the profit in 2019 was closer to $40-$50M). Demanding a return on your investment of that magnitude is not only unreasonable, it’s downright greedy. Especially when a significant portion of that return was initially financed by the taxpayer (Target Field).

I’ve given the Cheap Pohalds a break for a few days because of Donaldson, but let’s not act like these guys are anywhere near blowing open the bank vault, here. They’re still Scrooge McDuck personified.

 

Wouldn’t the best comparison be the closest profile available? In this case that would be MLB teams with the most similar revenue. The top row are teams closest in revenue to the Twins. The 2nd row is the next wave up with the exception of Detroit. They are an anomaly among all MLB teams in terms of spending over the past decade. Therefore, I did not include them but I guess you could say they are an example that suggests it could be done.

 

Detroit had a run of reasonable success from 2011-2014 as their payroll ran up. Eventually it reached 198M in 2015. They lost $35M and produced 74 wins, fired their leadership and blew up the roster. The accelerated spending did not yield greater success. It led to a disaster. Over the 5 year period of 2015-2019 they won an average of 67 games.

 

Revenue History.png

 

The five teams closest to the Twins in revenue averaged $96M in payroll and the average peak for payroll was $126M. The five closest teams over the decade were my best guess. None of those teams came anywhere near $160M much less $180M. Actually, the Twins 2020 payroll will be the highest of the past decade for the teams most similar revenue. All of these teams had higher revenue in 2018 but the twins due have the capacity to equal or even surpass the closest 5-6 teams. Also, I did not include 2020 because the available tools don’t have all of the 2020 information. 


#59 dex8425

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Posted 22 January 2020 - 02:58 PM

 

Im confused...I dont know why we would ever give them anything if we are the ones taking on the bad contract and they indeed want to get away from the luxury tax threshold....

 

So my trade would be taking on Price and Betts salaries and that is all. Redsox get payroll relief.

 

No way they are getting anything of substance back. No way in hell. 

 

They are asking high for now. I agree they are not getting two top prospects from anyone for one year of Betts at a high salary plus Price at a salary no team wants.The question is what would you give them to get a deal done today instead of later in the year when the price goes down and more teams are interested.

 

Price has the lowest value on baseballtradevalues.com of any starting pitcher in baseball, lol. Negative 55. Not as bad as Chris Davis or Miguel Cabrera though. 


#60 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 22 January 2020 - 03:02 PM

They are asking high for now. I agree they are not getting two top prospects from anyone for one year of Betts at a high salary plus Price at a salary no team wants. The question is what would you give them to get a deal done today instead of later in the year when the price goes down and more teams are interested.

Price has the lowest value on baseballtradevalues.com of any starting pitcher in baseball, lol. Negative 55. Not as bad as Chris Davis or Miguel Cabrera though.


I don't think they're ever going to have teams knocking down their door trying to get a deal done.
So I'm not worried about getting a deal done before another team jumps in.
Betts is the cost of unloading Price's contract. I wouldn't personally move off that stance. In fact, I think its it's a very generous offer to not also ask for a good prospect or two in addition to Betts.



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