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Forget adding SP, let's talk about keeping what we have

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#1 DocBauer

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Posted 18 January 2020 - 08:33 PM

Let's stop talking about adding more SP for a moment and recognize what we have and keeping it.

There have been various discussions about Berrios. Some believe he has yet to prove himself over a full season and doubt he will achieve #1 SP potential. At 26yo, some of us believe he is so very close to achieving that kind of potential. Perhaps soon. Future contracts, future payroll, the willingness of the FO to extend what is on hand, even debates about how close the arbitration numbers are currently can lead us to believe an extension is deserved, wanted and in order. What is realistic?

I laugh when comments are made Odorizzi has a bad agent. They guy is making $17.8M next season, is just turning 30, coming off probably the best year of his career, and wants to stay. In no way does Oddo compare to Strasburg or Cole, no matter how nice a pitcher he is. He will be making less than Wheeler, a little younger, and signed for his $ based on velocity and hope/projectability that Oddo just doesn't match. Ryu is signed for $20M per and frankly, IMO, I'm glad the Twins didn't match that.

But unless there is some sudden regression, Odorizzi is a NICE SP who might be on a 2-4yr run that is the best of his career. And his 2020 contract is completely on line with the FA contracts we have seen except for the very top contracts.

He needs to be re-signed, IMO, and wants to be. What does it take?

We have Pineda for 2yrs. We gave 4 really intriguing prospects ready to make some kind of mark and development in 2020. Lead by Duran, we have 3-4 prospects that should reach AAA before the year is done, with a ML appearance a possibility. All of them are a part of a tomorrow that may not be that far away.

But we also have 2 very good SP on hand that should be locked up. And everything seems to indicate the perfect time to do so.

Do you lock up both? I think you do. What are the terms?
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#2 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 18 January 2020 - 09:03 PM

I try to lock up Berrios but Jose appears to be dead-set about betting on himself. That only makes me want to sign him more but it also drastically decreases the likelihood of being able to do it.

 

If I was the Twins, I'd acknowledge that Jose will bet on himself and only ask for one year of free agency at free agency prices, with a monstrous buyout offer. Something like $24m, $8m buyout.

 

I don't think it's going to be possible to get more than one year of Berrios free agency but if you can get that one year, do it.

 

As for Odorizzi, I'm not so sure. I want to retain him but he's the type of pitcher who might fall off a cliff. Still, I'd probably offer a 3/$50m deal to see if he bites because I want to keep him, but not at open market prices.

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#3 Monkeypaws

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Posted 18 January 2020 - 09:04 PM

Like your thinking Doc. Berrios has been pretty much a top 10 AL pitcher the last 2 years as a young guy. I expect more, and likely he does as well given his resistance to extending. Make him an offer he can't refuse. His make-up and work ethic merit it.

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#4 ashbury

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Posted 19 January 2020 - 07:51 AM

As for Odorizzi, I'm not so sure. I want to retain him but he's the type of pitcher who might fall off a cliff.

Just by the eyeball test, he's getting every ounce of results out of his (not inconsiderable) talent. He pitches so carefully. He oozes discipline and concentration.

 

Kyle Gibson got hung with the ridiculous moniker of Nibbler, and his average pitches per plate appearance was 3.90 (league average is 3.93), but Jake was even nibbleyer, at 4.22, leading the entire American League among pitchers who'd qualify for an ERA title. He just doesn't often give in to the hitter.

 

I starting writing this reply to agree that he might fall off a cliff, thinking that any slight degradation in skills could leave him with no means to "work smarter". But then I looked at the AL as a whole. Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander are among the league's highest in pitches per PA too. Eduardo Rodriguez, Trevor Bauer, and Chris Sale, aren't too far behind. Homer Bailey, for that matter. :)

 

Maybe it's Jose Berrios who needs to be burying a few more in the dirt.

 

So, I'm back to not knowing whether I'd extend Jake or not.
 

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#5 cardsfan

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Posted 19 January 2020 - 08:17 AM

I try to lock up Berrios but Jose appears to be dead-set about betting on himself. That only makes me want to sign him more but it also drastically decreases the likelihood of being able to do it.

If I was the Twins, I'd acknowledge that Jose will bet on himself and only ask for one year of free agency at free agency prices, with a monstrous buyout offer. Something like $24m, $8m buyout.

I don't think it's going to be possible to get more than one year of Berrios free agency but if you can get that one year, do it.

As for Odorizzi, I'm not so sure. I want to retain him but he's the type of pitcher who might fall off a cliff. Still, I'd probably offer a 3/$50m deal to see if he bites because I want to keep him, but not at open market prices.

Odorizzi is likely going to bet on himself for free agency. His OPS 3rd time through lineup is terrible at .883 whereas 2018 it was 1.1xx. If I were him I would join the NL and face the pitcher batting 2 times a game as well lower scoring teams.

Someone mentioned Wheeler well he is or was great the first 2 times through the lineup, but, not the 3rd last year. It was telling that Stroman was very good the 3rd time through the lineup and the Mets acquired him while trying to trade Wheeler at the same time. The Mets have 3 very good starters this year.

Well, if you can get some good middle inning relievers who win the close games for you would be great. Developing more minor league pitchers year after year is needed.

#6 goulik

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Posted 19 January 2020 - 08:26 PM

I would like to see Odo and Berríos both extended a couple years

#7 Rosterman

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Posted 20 January 2020 - 12:23 AM

Berrios for 3 more years, $45 million (not counting 2020). Try to get an option on the 2024 season.

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#8 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 20 January 2020 - 08:24 AM

Odorizzi is likely going to bet on himself for free agency. His OPS 3rd time through lineup is terrible at .883 whereas 2018 it was 1.1xx. If I were him I would join the NL and face the pitcher batting 2 times a game as well lower scoring teams.

Someone mentioned Wheeler well he is or was great the first 2 times through the lineup, but, not the 3rd last year. It was telling that Stroman was very good the 3rd time through the lineup and the Mets acquired him while trying to trade Wheeler at the same time. The Mets have 3 very good starters this year.

Well, if you can get some good middle inning relievers who win the close games for you would be great. Developing more minor league pitchers year after year is needed.

I suspect that if the Twins approached Odo with a 3/$50m extension today, it’d get the job done.

In essence, it would be a four year contract for around $68m. That’s roughly in line with what he would have expected on the free agent market and if it takes $5-8m more to put ink on the contract today, that’s fine.
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#9 Don Walcott

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Posted 20 January 2020 - 10:24 AM

I agree with Ash. . . or maybe I don't, depending on what he was ultimately saying.

 

Odo may be trying too hard for the K stats, and not doing enough trusting his defense so he can get through early innings without high pitch counts. Maybe that's just who he is as a pitcher. However, in my opinion, that's not nearly as valuable as the #1 or #2 starter who can go 6 innings consistently, and will give you 7 or more with some modest frequency. That makes Berrios a lot more valuable to me.

 

I agree with Brock, that Berrios seems to be betting on himself (though we don't really know what he's been offered), and that confidence is a good thing. However, at some level of offer, he and his advisors will have to accept guaranteed money, rather than risk losing out due to injury.

 

Given our obvious need for a #1 or #2 starter, and Berrios's development towards being one, I'd break the bank to get him signed for 4-5 years right now. Especially after whiffing on FA starters this off-season, we need Berrios more than any other player on this team right now. I'd give him $16-18 million/year yesterday if he signs on for 4 or 5 years.

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#10 ashbury

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Posted 20 January 2020 - 11:31 AM

I agree with Ash. . . or maybe I don't, depending on what he was ultimately saying.

I might or might not be on your side on this remark.

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#11 Riverbrian

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Posted 20 January 2020 - 01:22 PM

I agree with Ash. . . or maybe I don't, depending on what he was ultimately saying.


This might be the best sentence ever typed on TD.
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#12 Tomj14

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Posted 20 January 2020 - 02:34 PM

IMO, they told Odo go out and give it everything you got for 5 to 6 innings and call it a day, because we aren't letting you pitch the third time though the lineup anyway. Or Odo realized there really wasn't any reason to worry about pitch count or saving himself for anything after the 5th, so he is going all out on every hitter.

With that being said, I don't want the Twins to pay somebody 20 million a year for 5 to 6 innings even and I think other teams will be thinking the same thing, even more so if the Ryu, Madbum, Wheelers of the world continue to get into the 7th inning (at a higher percentage), especially with the changes going on this year with relief pitchers, starting the 7th will be worth quite a bit more than coming out after 5.


#13 jorgenswest

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Posted 20 January 2020 - 02:59 PM

The largest reason starting pitchers fare worse the third time through is that they get to their pitch count somewhere in the middle of the line up the third time through.

The data is heavily skewed with plate appearances from batters at the top of the order. Since Odorizzi has a higher rate of pitches per plate appearance his data is skewed a little more.

When you look from the batters point of view you and consider how well individual batters do the third time through you find that there is a slight shift. The data I have is from two years ago but about 38% of batters performed better in the third time seeing a pitcher as compared to the first two appearances. That isn’t significantly different than the 31% in each of the other two at bats.

Odorizzi doesn’t necessarily have more trouble against a batter the third time he sees them but rather he is only seeing the top of the line up and very good batters the third time through skewing the results.
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#14 jorgenswest

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Posted 20 January 2020 - 03:13 PM

A second take on Odorizzi and his higher pitch counts. He does not give in to batters early in the count.

You can see it when you compare Odorizzi and Berrios early in the count.

0-0 count

Berrios: 100 PAs 1.321 OPS against
Odorizzi: 61 PAs .839 OPS against

Not only is Odorizzi much more difficult to hit but he is allowing a first pitch PA much less often.

Even with the count 1-0 where Berrios and Odorizzi have about the same OPS against over 1000, Odorizzi had many fewer plate appearances (34 v 55) completed at that count.

Odorizzi doesn’t go deep in games and a big part is that he doesn’t give in early in the count. I don’t know if that is a bad thing in an era of 8 man bullpens. Those early in the count PAs are often very favorable to a hitter.
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#15 USAFChief

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Posted 20 January 2020 - 05:25 PM

This might be the best sentence ever typed on TD.

or it might not. Hard to say.
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#16 Thrylos

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Posted 20 January 2020 - 07:01 PM

What "we have", resulted (again) in belly up in the postseason. Cannot do the same thing and expect different results...

 

To be relevant in the postseason the Twins need a number 1 and even maybe a number 2.

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#17 ewen21

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Posted 20 January 2020 - 08:26 PM

If we extend Odo then we should consider acquiring Worf.I like his toughness and discipline 


#18 ashbury

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Posted 21 January 2020 - 07:17 AM

As for Odorizzi, I'm not so sure. I want to retain him but he's the type of pitcher who might fall off a cliff.

Let me try again. What "type" of pitcher would that be?

 

What's notable to me about Odorizzi is his pitch count, which limits his innings and thus his chances to help the team. But when I set about to document that, I found that he was in company with guys like Verlander and Cole, who have always been a bit high in pitches per PA and yet haven't fallen off any cliffs.

 

So, did you have some other distinguishing trait in mind? "Being a pitcher" kind of correlates with cliffs, and the falling off of same, all by itself.
 

The actions of men are the best interpreters of their thoughts. -- John Locke


#19 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 21 January 2020 - 08:02 AM

Let me try again. What "type" of pitcher would that be?

What's notable to me about Odorizzi is his pitch count, which limits his innings and thus his chances to help the team. But when I set about to document that, I found that he was in company with guys like Verlander and Cole, who have always been a bit high in pitches per PA and yet haven't fallen off any cliffs.

So, did you have some other distinguishing trait in mind? "Being a pitcher" kind of correlates with cliffs, and the falling off of same, all by itself.

He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, his track record is something of a rollercoaster, and he has a history of back problems.

Take a mph off here and there, restrict pitch movement with a stiff back, whatever... it’s not hard to see Odorizzi go from above average to below average or out of baseball within a couple of years if things go to hell.

See Hughes, Phil.
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#20 twinkiesfan11

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Posted 21 January 2020 - 08:56 AM

 

What "we have", resulted (again) in belly up in the postseason. Cannot do the same thing and expect different results...

 

To be relevant in the postseason the Twins need a number 1 and even maybe a number 2.

 

I don't think this take makes as much sense as you think it does. The lineup choked against the Yankees every bit as much as the pitching staff. Should they blow up the Bombasquad too? Drop all the hitters that put up historically good numbers and dominated opposing pitching all season just because they choked during one series? I mean, otherwise they're doing the same thing and expecting different results right?

 

Most of the pitchers on this staff are still on the upswing in their careers. Getting their asses handed to them by a very intimidating and formidable Yankees team was no fun but I'm sure it was a valuable learning experience. Just because it happened in 2019 doesn't mean it's a given to happen again. 

 

All of the "number 1" or "number 2" free agent starting pitchers this offseason wanted to go elsewhere. People forget that retaining Odorizzi and Pineda qualify as very good moves. Bailey and Hill were very solid and savvy additions given what was left in the free agent market. The only remaining option is a trade and to get a "number 1" or "number 2" starter in a trade right now they're going to have to gut the farm system. I'd rather see them roll with what they have for now and If it's clear by the trade deadline that they need to make a rotation upgrade they can do it then.  

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