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Post-Donaldson Trade - Status of Top Prospects

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#41 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 22 January 2020 - 06:22 AM

One stat often overlooked with Eddie in what he does with RISP - his team leading 109 RBI give a hint (6th in the AL), but his numbers with RISP last season:

.340 BA (8th in the AL), .370 OBP, .538 SLG, for a .908 OPS. Clutch.

I'm really in no hurry to push him out the door.


Then again, his career numbers with RISP:
.271/.306/.448 (.754)

Those numbers are worse than his career overall numbers.

Single season RISP numbers are far too small of a sample size to tell us much of anything.
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#42 Sconnie

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Posted 22 January 2020 - 08:17 PM

One stat often overlooked with Eddie in what he does with RISP - his team leading 109 RBI give a hint (6th in the AL), but his numbers with RISP last season:

.340 BA (8th in the AL), .370 OBP, .538 SLG, for a .908 OPS. Clutch.

I'm really in no hurry to push him out the door.

while I’m in no hurry to “push him out the door” either, WPA tells a slightly different story.

1.21 WPA doesn’t put him in the top 5 hitters in terms of Win Probability Added.

Rosario has a good season and was absolutely an important part to 2019’s success. He’s just getting expensive and there are cheaper options that can provide similar hitting value and much better fielding getting very close to MLB ready.

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#43 Rosterman

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Posted 22 January 2020 - 10:16 PM

Cruz will probably be gone. Sano and Donaldson will both be considered for DH sometime in the future. Buxton is eitehr signed or not. Rosario is up in air. Bigger question is longterm fate of Polanco and Arraz. But Twins still look pretty strong for next 3-4 years and maybe 5-7 at all positions with possible in-house replacements as needed.

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#44 raindog

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Posted 22 January 2020 - 10:38 PM

I've got less than exciting news about that 40 man roster spot...

 


#45 SQUIRREL

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Posted 23 January 2020 - 10:56 AM

 

I've got less than exciting news about that 40 man roster spot...

 

Um ... where are you looking because I see him still on the 40-man

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#46 Rosterman

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Posted 23 January 2020 - 01:29 PM

If you are looking on your iPhone, there are some strange names on that roster. Vasquez, for example. 

 

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#47 jorgenswest

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Posted 24 January 2020 - 09:19 PM

Rosario is more likely to help this year’s team in LF than any other player in the system.

If the Twins are in it for this year the only reason to trade him is to improve this year’s team somewhere else. They would need to find a trade partner that needs a LF and is win now for this year but somehow has spare valuable pitching to trade. I just don’t see it.

Rosario is a valuable player to this team but he doesn’t have the trade value they need to impact the pitching this year.

Maybe they can find a Matt Lawton for Rick Reed type deal during the season if Kirilloff or Larnach is ready. They aren’t ready yet.
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#48 Major League Ready

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Posted 25 January 2020 - 09:32 AM

 

Cruz will probably be gone. Sano and Donaldson will both be considered for DH sometime in the future. Buxton is eitehr signed or not. Rosario is up in air. Bigger question is longterm fate of Polanco and Arraz. But Twins still look pretty strong for next 3-4 years and maybe 5-7 at all positions with possible in-house replacements as needed.

 

10 players from the 26 man will be free agents after this season.

 

Jake Odorizzi
Nelson Cruz
Marwin Gonzalez
Homer Bailey
Romo
Alex Avilia
Rich Hill
Tyler Clippard
Trevor May
Ehire Adrianza

 

 

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#49 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 25 January 2020 - 10:10 AM

I think Rosario has that swagger and competitive fire that helps the team. That may be a little less important with Cruz and Donaldson on the team, but I do think it’s still important. I do think the team feeds on his energy. His stats and overall usefulness are pretty much in line with his salary, particularly if last year was just a down year on defense. That’s frankly what I think. I think he hurt his ankle and it never healed all the way, which then affected him in the field. What Rosario gave us last year is worth somewhere between 7 and 9 mil in today’s MLB. I don’t think he’s overpaid.

 

I think the Twins are handling it just the right way. We have players we think WILL BE ready to replace him in the outfield, but they aren’t ready yet and they may never be. This team is built to win now in for the next two years. Rosario helps us win and hopefully we will have that replacement when he becomes too expensive to make himself worth that extra money. Let’s keep in mind that we have Kepler and Polanco signed for what I perceive to be less than market value over time assuming they maintain their performance, much less improve, so the money will be there to pay Rosario if we need to when he hits FA in a couple of years. There’s no need to commit to that now, unless he would take a below market deal  like those two. I suspect he would reject that out of hand given how close he is to free agency

 

Bottom line, I think the FO is handling Rosario exactly as they should. This approach keeps a talented guy on the roster at a reasonable salary for his production but leaves flexibility if that production doesn’t increase to match his soon to be increased salary or IF we have a superstar in the wings ready to go in 2021 or 2022. We still have a chance to keep him should he take the next step up and/or the team is more successful so he has a great desire to stay. Well played.

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#50 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 25 January 2020 - 10:29 AM

By the way, what do you guys think is going to be the lineup next year assuming no further changes or injury? I should probably start a new thread but I don’t know how to do that so I’ll start here if that’s permissible. I know there’s a lot of talk about Arraez leading off his high OBP but I think we have to remember he only had about 325 at bats last year so might not be a good idea to start the season that way.

I think Polanco is the right lead off hitter to start the season, with Arraez starting off down the lineup. With the lineup below if Arraez continues with the high on base percentage you can simply jump him up to first and move everybody down one. Here’s what I would do: 

 

Polanco SS

Donaldson 3B

Rosario LF/ Kepler RF

Cruz DH

Kepler RF/Rosario LF

Sano 1B

Garver C

Arraez 2B

Buxton CF

 

I like the constant left/right switching to limit value of left-handed relief pitching against this lineup and I think it avoids having our slower players clog up the bases for our faster ones by putting Sano and Garver next to each other. Tough choice in the three hole if you buy this construct because I don’t really see Rosario, Kepler or Cruz as the classic number three hitters. I would personally kind of alternate Kepler and Rosario in the three spot depending on which one is hot and help protect Kepler a little against left-handed pitching. I don’t like the idea of Cruz in the three hole because he’s slow and then you wind up moving either Rosario or Kepler down to number six or seven unless you want to stack to left-handed hitters back to back. I think Sano is better suited a little farther down because he strikes out so much. Still a fun exercise cause you have great options at every position. By the way, if Arraez really proves to be the next coming of Rod Carew, you can simply move him to the lead off spot and bump everybody down one.

 

Anyway, fun exercise. What do you guys think?

 


#51 Beth27

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Posted 25 January 2020 - 11:04 AM

Buxton’s play gets him injured every year and limits the games he plays. His salary is going higher and higher. I would include him in a trade to get No. 1 starter. He still has arb years and teams still value him highly. Lewis should be their long term Center Fielder. 


#52 The Wise One

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Posted 25 January 2020 - 11:57 AM

The status of the prospects is that none are at the point of pushing major league players. They are still in the maybe phase. 


#53 Riverbrian

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Posted 27 January 2020 - 07:50 PM

 

Well... he was only blocked by Schoop, who was on a cheap one year deal, so I'm not sure how "blocked" that really is.

 

As recent as 2018... That cheap one year Schoop type deal would have prevented Arraez from seeing the light of day. 

 

But Yeah... 2019 happened and Baldelli did things much different than Molitor.

 

So... You are right... Schoop did not block Arraez. 

 

Arraez started 42 games at 2B and he started 40 games at LF, 3B, SS and DH.:)

 

 

 

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#54 Riverbrian

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Posted 27 January 2020 - 08:28 PM

 

Lewis and Kirilloff are blocked by Donaldson, Polanco, Arraez and Sano. Without a trade or an injury, I don’t see an opening for our top prospects. Maybe, Lewis starts more in center field. Maybe Twins plan to trade prospects for pitching at MLB and MiLB level.

 

I continue to struggle with these type of viewpoints. 

 

We all watched 2019 happen.

 

We watched Baldelli get every position player on the roster into the lineup last year.

 

We saw approximately zero damage to the team while Rocco was working everyone into the lineup.

We set a home run record while Rocco was working everyone into the lineup.

We won 101 games while Rocco was working everyone into the lineup. 

 

Astudilo was not on the 25 man roster for half the season (80 games) due to injury and a 2 week stint in AAA.

 

Yet, Astudillo still started 44 games out of 82 games. 

 

Why are Lewis and Kiriloff blocked?:)  

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#55 strumdatjaguar

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Posted 28 January 2020 - 11:44 AM

Prior to September call-up time, prospects like Larnach, Lewis and Kirilloff will be blocked by healthy veterans. If there is an injury, then a space opens. This isn’t necessarily a bad “problem” to have. Nevertheless, even if Sano, Donaldson and/or any starting outfielder struggles, the Twins will not bring up any of those top prospects. Those players will continue to be put in the lineup unlike a player at the level of a Jonathan Schoop.

#56 Riverbrian

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Posted 28 January 2020 - 03:08 PM

 

Prior to September call-up time, prospects like Larnach, Lewis and Kirilloff will be blocked by healthy veterans. If there is an injury, then a space opens. This isn’t necessarily a bad “problem” to have. Nevertheless, even if Sano, Donaldson and/or any starting outfielder struggles, the Twins will not bring up any of those top prospects. Those players will continue to be put in the lineup unlike a player at the level of a Jonathan Schoop.

 

If this is true:

 

Why would they scrap the 2019 model that produced more success that we have seen in decades?

 

 

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#57 strumdatjaguar

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Posted 28 January 2020 - 08:16 PM

Because the Twins have more invested monetarily and emotionally in Donaldson, Sano and their starting outfielders sans Rosario. Replacing one of them with a thriving prospect will em take much more than it took to boost Arraez over Schoop. In other words, they are blocked.

#58 Major League Ready

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Posted 28 January 2020 - 09:58 PM

 

Because the Twins have more invested monetarily and emotionally in Donaldson, Sano and their starting outfielders sans Rosario. Replacing one of them with a thriving prospect will em take much more than it took to boost Arraez over Schoop. In other words, they are blocked.

 

You can't be blocked until you have made a good case for being promoted.Lewis would have to have to be good for all of 2020 to be considered a candidate for 2021.KIrilloff is a bit closer but he needs to show an extended period of the type of performance he had in A/A+ before he earns a shot.So, why are we worried about this not.How did signing Donaldson become a problem? Seems like we are trying to find failure in success.  

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#59 Doctor Wu

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Posted 05 February 2020 - 06:34 AM

Most of us are assuming, or at least hoping, that Nelson Cruz has another productive and healthy season. But he turns 40 in July, and we should be prepared for either a breakdown or dip in power. Okay, maybe he passes for Super Man again and leads the team to the playoffs, but something unfortunate could happen, so it's not unrealistic to think that their could be a DH opening earlier than expected this season.

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