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Post-Donaldson Trade - Status of Top Prospects

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#21 Shaitan

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Posted 19 January 2020 - 03:11 PM

Good teams have good depth and back-ups. This is exactly what you want, and it forces a prospect to be ready when the call-up finally comes. See A.J. Pierzynski and Doug Mientkiewicz for examples. See Aaron Hicks and Byron Buxton for players who don't have anybody "blocking" them.

 

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#22 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 19 January 2020 - 05:50 PM

Good news - the MLB roster is good enough that these guys have to prove themselves by dominating in the minors. They haven't yet. Nobody's blocked; none of these guys have forced their way up yet. Way too early to worry about these guys wasting in the minors. They need to conquer the minors.

This is the way good sustainable teams are built with quality developing in the minors while the MLB roster is strong. It's a new thing for us but a good thing. Let's see Lewis, Kiriloff, Larnach, etc. dominate in the minors before we wonder about guys being blocked.
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#23 Thrylos

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Posted 19 January 2020 - 07:00 PM

 

It's fairly easy to see the path forward for Lewis and Kirilloff. Lewis becomes the Twins shortstop with Polanco moving to 2nd and Arraez taking over the super utility role from Gonzalez. Kirilloff is highly likely to take Rosario's spot in the outfield with Eddie getting traded. Larnach is the Twins prospect without a clear path and could well be used as a trade chip for a controllable starting pitcher.

 

More likely, if Lewis's bat arrives at MLB-levels, he replaces Buxton at CF when he becomes a free agent or gets traded. 

 

Kirilloff is way redundant in this organization and the best path forward is to be included in a trade for a front line pitcher some time before the deadline this season.Left hand throwing first basemen/outfielders with a 780 OPS in AA are not needed in this organization.Kepler is the one who blocks him as such, and he can actually play CF okay, unlike Kirilloff
 

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#24 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 19 January 2020 - 07:10 PM

Many want to write off Rosario. Yes his defense leaves something to be desired but it hard to replace his bat. I don`t see any prospect able step in & produce better overall than him. I hate to see Cruz leave next year but if he does Rosario is my choice to replace him. Yes, if any team have their heart on Rosario but don`t trade him just for the sake of trading him. All prospects still have things to work on while they are waiting. Back to trades, I hate to see any of the top 3 go & we must trade away fat not muscle.


Rosario's bat was 6 percent better than league average last year.
And that includes catchers, middle infielders and center fielders.
So his bat was likely less than league average for corner outfielders.

Of course, there is no guarantee that you'll get league average production from a replacement. But, I wouldn't say it'd be hard to imagine.

#25 jorgenswest

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Posted 20 January 2020 - 10:12 AM

For projecting forward BP’s DRC+ has a higher correlation than looking at a previous season’s OPS.

Rosario had a DRC+ of 109 ranking 67/68 with Brett Gardner and ahead of Marte, Votto, Abreau, Seager and Machado. I would be very reluctant to move on from Rosario. They would need to get in return a pitcher who is ready to perform at his level in 2020.
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#26 Crackedfungo

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Posted 20 January 2020 - 10:56 AM

For projecting forward BP’s DRC+ has a higher correlation than looking at a previous season’s OPS.
Rosario had a DRC+ of 109 ranking 67/68 with Brett Gardner and ahead of Marte, Votto, Abreau, Seager and Machado. I would be very reluctant to move on from Rosario. They would need to get in return a pitcher who is ready to perform at his level in 2020.

Rosario's bat was 6 percent better than league average last year.
And that includes catchers, middle infielders and center fielders.
So his bat was likely less than league average for corner outfielders.
Of course, there is no guarantee that you'll get league average production from a replacement. But, I wouldn't say it'd be hard to imagine.

Question: Name all Twins players in the last 25 years that batted over .275 with more than 32 HRs and 100 RBI? Since these are only “league replacement numbers” this shouldn’t be hard to replace, right? WRONG. Whether a corner OF or not, only Rosario and Mourneau have achieved that mix of numbers in a season over that period. I just don’t get the fantasy people believe it is that this is average to below average production. It sure isn’t in Twins Territory. So, either we have had [ ] players (including a player like Mauer, who never had a season mix like this), or it ain’t that easy to replace. All these new age stats are just noise. They are just more contrived tools to entertain the stat stooges. Guys like Rosario have not been that plentiful or expendable on the Twins (or upon most teams). You aren’t going to convince astute people otherwise that merely watch a game and assess impact accordingly by what they see without a slide rule and pocket protector. This topic is SO tired and misrepresented.

Edited by Hosken Bombo Disco, 20 January 2020 - 11:04 AM.
disparaging remarks


#27 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 20 January 2020 - 11:38 AM

Question: Name all Twins players in the last 25 years that batted over .275 with more than 32 HRs and 100 RBI? Since these are only “league replacement numbers” this shouldn’t be hard to replace, right? WRONG. Whether a corner OF or not, only Rosario and Mourneau have achieved that mix of numbers in a season over that period. I just don’t get the fantasy people believe it is that this is average to below average production. It sure isn’t in Twins Territory. So, either we have had [ ] players (including a player like Mauer, who never had a season mix like this), or it ain’t that easy to replace. All these new age stats are just noise. They are just more contrived tools to entertain the stat stooges. Guys like Rosario have not been that plentiful or expendable on the Twins (or upon most teams). You aren’t going to convince astute people otherwise that merely watch a game and assess impact accordingly by what they see without a slide rule and pocket protector. This topic is SO tired and misrepresented.


1) I never said "replacement level". I said league average.
The fact that his OPS was 6% better than league average for all positions isn't an opinion, it's factual.

2) Last year was a historical year for offense. You have to compare his numbers to his peers, not to Twins hitters 25 years ago, 10 years ago, or even 3 years ago.

3) You listed BA, HR, and RBI.
You left out on base percentage, which is his biggest weakness. Not making outs is pretty important in a game where the other team can't beat you unless you make 27 outs (barring weather shortened finals).

4) I don't recall using any "new age" stats. On base % and slugging % are as old as the game itself.

5) There is really no reason to refer to opinions that you disagree with using such terms as "fantasy", "noise", "contrived", "stooges", and "tired".
Especially when the post you are referring to really had little in the way of opinion and was mostly just citing facts.

#28 twinkies8791

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Posted 20 January 2020 - 12:49 PM

only 3 pitchers i would get that would have buxton, lewis, or kiriloff, as the headliner..  Clevinger, Buehler and Thor

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#29 twinkies8791

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Posted 20 January 2020 - 12:51 PM

i would also trade nick gordon for guys like, ray, gray, archer, price or sale


#30 lukeduke1980

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Posted 20 January 2020 - 01:02 PM

 

More likely, if Lewis's bat arrives at MLB-levels, he replaces Buxton at CF when he becomes a free agent or gets traded. 

 

Kirilloff is way redundant in this organization and the best path forward is to be included in a trade for a front line pitcher some time before the deadline this season.Left hand throwing first basemen/outfielders with a 780 OPS in AA are not needed in this organization.Kepler is the one who blocks him as such, and he can actually play CF okay, unlike Kirilloff
 

Out of curiosity is it more common for organizations to have depth in the corner-outfielder type of player, given the profile of the player, a plus bat who just needs a position?  


#31 jorgenswest

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Posted 20 January 2020 - 02:41 PM

Question: Name all Twins players in the last 25 years that batted over .275 with more than 32 HRs and 100 RBI? Since these are only “league replacement numbers” this shouldn’t be hard to replace, right? WRONG. Whether a corner OF or not, only Rosario and Mourneau have achieved that mix of numbers in a season over that period. I just don’t get the fantasy people believe it is that this is average to below average production. It sure isn’t in Twins Territory. So, either we have had [ ] players (including a player like Mauer, who never had a season mix like this), or it ain’t that easy to replace. All these new age stats are just noise. They are just more contrived tools to entertain the stat stooges. Guys like Rosario have not been that plentiful or expendable on the Twins (or upon most teams). You aren’t going to convince astute people otherwise that merely watch a game and assess impact accordingly by what they see without a slide rule and pocket protector. This topic is SO tired and misrepresented.

Just a little puzzled why I was quoted.

I think I was in support of retaining Romero though I possibly used a tool contrived by BP to support Rosario. I believe it has a year to year correlation of .69 compared to OPS+ of .51.

A 109 DRC+ is a good thing. Cave has been around 90 the last two season.

Ranking 67/68 over all qualifying hitters and in line with Gardner is a good thing. The Yankees still value Gardner.

That 109 ranks above Votto, Abreau and Machado which is a good thing.

There are new metrics that put Rosario in a good light and the Twins have him at a contract that is favorable relative to many similarly ranked players.

Does he have significant trade value? Probably not given his limited years of control, position and arb status. Does he have significant value the Twins? Absolutely.
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#32 Major League Ready

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Posted 20 January 2020 - 02:46 PM

 

More likely, if Lewis's bat arrives at MLB-levels, he replaces Buxton at CF when he becomes a free agent or gets traded. 

 

Kirilloff is way redundant in this organization and the best path forward is to be included in a trade for a front line pitcher some time before the deadline this season.Left hand throwing first basemen/outfielders with a 780 OPS in AA are not needed in this organization.Kepler is the one who blocks him as such, and he can actually play CF okay, unlike Kirilloff
 

 

Why would anyone give up front line SP for him if his 780 OPS last year is indicative of what he will or will not be at the MLB level? Is it fair to say someone would have to believe his AA season was representative of his ceiling and his scorching performance at A / A+ were not representative?

 

I guess the good news is that the FO has a good portion of the MiLB season to evaluate this prior to the deadline.

 

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#33 Rosterman

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Posted 20 January 2020 - 04:20 PM

It seems like on the field players everyone else in the lower system is now available for a trade. All those A-ball and Double-A outfielders and middle infielders will need a job elsewhere come 2022.

 

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#34 Thrylos

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Posted 20 January 2020 - 07:05 PM

 

Out of curiosity is it more common for organizations to have depth in the corner-outfielder type of player, given the profile of the player, a plus bat who just needs a position?  

Depends at the level.At the lower levels the biggest depth is at shortstop because teams draft a lot of shortstops who may move to other positions and have reasonable defense at the new positions (Plouffe and Cuddyer are a couple names here.)At the higher levels, due to that move, plus the attrition of light hitters, and of catchers moving to corners, corner positions are more frequent. 

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#35 amjgt

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Posted 21 January 2020 - 12:39 PM

Brett Gardner:

a) plays CF

b.) has a positive defensive impact

c) got a 1 year, 12.5M deal this offseason

 

I'd say Kole Calhoun is pretty comparable and he got 2/16 this offseason

 

So yeah... pretty replaceable

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#36 Bickle19

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Posted 21 January 2020 - 02:36 PM

 

Why would anyone give up front line SP for him if his 780 OPS last year is indicative of what he will or will not be at the MLB level? Is it fair to say someone would have to believe his AA season was representative of his ceiling and his scorching performance at A / A+ were not representative?

 

I guess the good news is that the FO has a good portion of the MiLB season to evaluate this prior to the deadline.

I mean it's not like one season indicates that the prior season was a fluke. He tore up a pitcher friendly league at 21 after missing a full year. He battled through a wrist injury last year and hit .311 with 5 HR and a .851 OPS in 114 PA in August. Obviously unless the MLB scouts are seeing something in his swing, I don't think it will impact how he is viewed that much. Injuries obviously may be a concern, but I think the bat is real. Hopefully he has a year more like 2018. We will see.


#37 Major League Ready

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Posted 21 January 2020 - 03:58 PM

 

I mean it's not like one season indicates that the prior season was a fluke. He tore up a pitcher friendly league at 21 after missing a full year. He battled through a wrist injury last year and hit .311 with 5 HR and a .851 OPS in 114 PA in August. Obviously unless the MLB scouts are seeing something in his swing, I don't think it will impact how he is viewed that much. Injuries obviously may be a concern, but I think the bat is real. Hopefully he has a year more like 2018. We will see.

 

I am inclined to take your point of view. I was responding to someone who said "Left hand throwing first basemen/outfielders with a 780 OPS in AA are not needed in this organization". I believe Kirilloff's primary position will be 1B with Sano moving to DH at some point in 2021. However, it seems most people are more inclined to see him as a corner OFer. May be my take is off but I see Larnach taking over LF in 2021 and Kirilloff playing primarily at 1B but will provide the flexibility of playing in the OF.

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#38 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 21 January 2020 - 10:19 PM

 

For projecting forward BP’s DRC+ has a higher correlation than looking at a previous season’s OPS.

Rosario had a DRC+ of 109 ranking 67/68 with Brett Gardner and ahead of Marte, Votto, Abreau, Seager and Machado. I would be very reluctant to move on from Rosario. They would need to get in return a pitcher who is ready to perform at his level in 2020.

Like OPS, DRC+ only looks at hitting, though.

 

I don't think anyone is arguing whether Rosario is a pretty good hitter, the question is whether he's worth what he's being paid considering his defensive ability and whether the Twins could use him in trade for someone who could help the team *more*.


#39 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 21 January 2020 - 10:25 PM

 

Question: Name all Twins players in the last 25 years that batted over .275 with more than 32 HRs and 100 RBI? Since these are only “league replacement numbers” this shouldn’t be hard to replace, right? WRONG. Whether a corner OF or not, only Rosario and Mourneau have achieved that mix of numbers in a season over that period. I just don’t get the fantasy people believe it is that this is average to below average production. It sure isn’t in Twins Territory. So, either we have had [ ] players (including a player like Mauer, who never had a season mix like this), or it ain’t that easy to replace. All these new age stats are just noise. They are just more contrived tools to entertain the stat stooges. Guys like Rosario have not been that plentiful or expendable on the Twins (or upon most teams). You aren’t going to convince astute people otherwise that merely watch a game and assess impact accordingly by what they see without a slide rule and pocket protector. This topic is SO tired and misrepresented.

You're using counting stats in a single season where it was shown that counting stats were completely blown out of proportion by a ball that leapt off the bat.

 

The Twins literally had five 30 home run hitters last season. They were literally the first team in the 100-what-the-hell-ever seasons of MLB to accomplish that feat.

 

So exactly how special was it to hit 30 home runs in 2019?

 

Rosario finished fourth on his own team in home runs, just one ahead of a guy with 240 fewer plate appearances.


#40 Monkeypaws

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Posted 21 January 2020 - 11:12 PM

One stat often overlooked with Eddie in what he does with RISP - his team leading 109 RBI give a hint (6th in the AL), but his numbers with RISP last season:

 

.340 BA (8th in the AL), .370 OBP, .538 SLG, for a .908 OPS. Clutch.

 

I'm really in no hurry to push him out the door.

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