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Front Page: FEINSAND: Twins to Sign Josh Donaldson

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#141 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 14 January 2020 - 11:59 PM

Those stats were amassed against a lot of really poor Twins pitching scattered across some terrible teams in the mid 2010s. I'm a big fan of the signing, but Donaldson isn't going to face Tommy Milone, Mike Pelfrey, Kevin Correia, ect.

It’s super lazy reporting and I just laughed it off.
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#142 drivlikejehu

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Posted 15 January 2020 - 12:04 AM

 

July is when the Twins will be dealing from the greatest weakness, not strength. The offseason is the only time when buying and selling teams are at something of an equilibrium.

 

The problem is that very few clubs consider themselves to be in rebuilding mode at this point. And the few clubs that do have minimal starting pitching.

 

By the trade deadline, additional clubs will be facing the reality that they aren't contenders, and currently unavailable pitchers will become available.

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#143 twinsnorth49

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Posted 15 January 2020 - 12:08 AM

Oh my Falvine.
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#144 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 15 January 2020 - 12:08 AM

The problem is that very few clubs consider themselves to be in rebuilding mode at this point. And the few clubs that do have minimal starting pitching.

By the trade deadline, additional clubs will be facing the reality that they aren't contenders, and currently unavailable pitchers will become available.

And they’ll be selling to a market that needs pitching every single deadline, which drives up the price.

The offseason is when a team needs to wrangle a deal for pitching that isn’t two months of a rental.
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#145 RaoulDuke

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Posted 15 January 2020 - 12:17 AM

 

Berrios, Odorizzi, Bailey, Dobnak, Thorpe, Pineda, Hill, Smeltzer, Graterol, Duran, Poppen, Colina...

 

It would be a minor risk to start the season with this slate, but it might be enough to win the division.

 

We have an overwhelming consensus about both the quality and depth of the position player roster, with Gonzalez, Avila, Cave, Adrianza, Wade, and Astudillo as first responders to any injury.

 

This may not come into play in early 2020, but the reality is we have 7 quite promising prospects fairly close to ready in Lewis, Larnach, Kirilloff, Graterol, Balazovic, Duran, and Jeffers. The trade value of these prospects, or alternatively of the current regular any of them would replace, is a lot higher than what we're used to having available for trade.

 

With this as the backdrop, it wouldn't surprise me if Falvey waited to make another rotation move until he can zero in on a stress-related opportunity, either yet this off-season (Boston?) or next trade deadline.

 

Bottom line is that their prospect capital is still there and the final hole in the roster is one front line starter.

I want them to make a move now but this seems like the probable approach to take. 

 

It usually costs more at the deadline to acquire a long term piece, but rentals become available.Prospects can establish more capital in the mean time.

 

If Arraez has a good first half he becomes a major trade able asset.Kiriloff/ Lewis are both coming off somewhat disappointing seasons so their already high value could skyrocket.Rooker may well have mlb reps by the all star break.Balzovic/ Enlow/ Duran all have time to put up more numbers.Graterol is near the cusp of ready and could become insanely valuable. 

 

There is now one singular clear need for this team to be a serious contender.It's a major gamble to wait but it seems like that will be the course. 

 

Hope Berrios evolves, Odorizzi maintains, Pineda continues what was looking like a promising comeback, Hill is still the force he has been for limited stints, and they find a deal for an ace by the deadline is a lot to ask.

 

This is the year, everything else it there.I want them to suck it up and spend the prospects now, fix the rotation before it becomes imperative to do so.

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#146 JD Green

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Posted 15 January 2020 - 12:29 AM

Starting Monday, Mauer/Sano instructional workouts begin. Dreams do come true. Next dream is a dominate starting pitcher.
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#147 drivlikejehu

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Posted 15 January 2020 - 12:34 AM

 

And they’ll be selling to a market that needs pitching every single deadline, which drives up the price.

The offseason is when a team needs to wrangle a deal for pitching that isn’t two months of a rental.

 

The premium is going to be just as bad or even worse if you try to get a pitcher from a team that thinks it can contend (even if the belief is delusional). Allegedly, the Rockies think they can trade Arenado and still contend. Clubs like the Rangers, Reds, D'backs, etc. have made a number of contention-oriented moves and aren't going to deal away a starting pitcher at this point.

 

If you look at specific names, rather than speaking in generalities, it's fairly difficult to come up with many realistic off-season targets. Chris Archer presumably could be had, but Pittsburgh is more likely to hope he rebounds and he brings in more at the deadline. Not sure I buy the claims of poverty from the Red Sox and Cubs, that would allegedly cause them to consider dumping payroll. 

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#148 nicksaviking

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Posted 15 January 2020 - 12:50 AM

I still think this team tries to get starting pitching and as they’re at a record payroll and even at arbitration value or team friendly contract prices, starting pitchers ain’t free.

I’m predicting Rosario and his contract are being shopped to offset that hypothetical pitching.
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#149 Lasorda_This_Out

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Posted 15 January 2020 - 12:55 AM

"With this as the backdrop, it wouldn't surprise me if Falvey waited to make another rotation move until he can zero in on a stress-related opportunity, either yet this off-season (Boston?) or next trade deadline".

 

Boston at the moment is very vulnerable. Likely multiple 1st and 2nd Round draft picks will be forfeited and a really weak farm system. Falvine should apply maximum pressure NOW to get Chris Sale in a trade where it's the Red Sox who have the biggest grimace/angst after the deal goes down? 

 

"When your competition is drowning, stick a hose down his throat.."

 

 Ray Kroc - Founder of McDonald's

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#150 RaoulDuke

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Posted 15 January 2020 - 12:55 AM

 

Those stats were amassed against a lot of really poor Twins pitching scattered across some terrible teams in the mid 2010s. I'm a big fan of the signing, but Donaldson isn't going to face Tommy Milone, Mike Pelfrey, Kevin Correia, ect. 

Idk Detroit/ KC/ Chi have some major weaknesses to their pitching staffs.White Sox rotation additions were both soft tossing lefties that are going to have to face the Twins that can now trot out the lineup of death vs left handers. 

 

Donaldson remembered his times vs the AL Central fondly because there is always pitching to feast on.The Twins certainly stocked the buffet but they were hardly the only caterer. 

 

Cleveland has a good rotation of young guys, Detroit has Boyd,,, KC has prospects, White Sox have Giolito and some good prospects.Josh will get to face the likes of Gio Gonzalez/ Dallas Keuchel/ Daniel Norris/ Mike Montgomery from the left side and a good percentage of inexperienced/ un- established/ mediocre from the right.AKA he is still going to get plenty of AL Central meat to eat in hitter friendly ball parks.  

 

It obviously won't be the onslaugh he put on the Twins in a smaller sample size, but he will still get to face a lot of AL Central pitching.

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#151 RaoulDuke

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Posted 15 January 2020 - 01:21 AM

 

"With this as the backdrop, it wouldn't surprise me if Falvey waited to make another rotation move until he can zero in on a stress-related opportunity, either yet this off-season (Boston?) or next trade deadline".

 

Boston at the moment is very vulnerable. Likely multiple 1st and 2nd Round draft picks will be forfeited and a really weak farm system. Falvine should apply maximum pressure NOW to get Chris Sale in a trade where it's the Red Sox who have the biggest grimace/angst after the deal goes down? 

Sale still probably takes a real haul in pitching prospects and he has a no trade clause, he has an opt out in 2 years so he won't be a longer term piece. 

 

Price is intriguing maybe they can get him for just prospects?Is Larnach enough to just take on the contract?Can you just give them lesser prospects to eat half the cost?


#152 twinstalker

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Posted 15 January 2020 - 01:24 AM

I have to admit, I'm not as excited about this as you all. Between injuries, payroll concerns, and a drop in production vs NL pitching, not to mention he's now 34 (Mauer was basically on his last leg at that age), I can see this going badly. For one or two years, fine, but even those years are risky. I'm not so sure this is as good a deal as you all think it is. Hope I'm wrong.

 

 

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#153 Lasorda_This_Out

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Posted 15 January 2020 - 01:50 AM

Maybe we're missing something?

 

With an Off-Season that screamed ImpactStartingPitching as the highest priority,

nothing really has happened (so far?). Now Donaldson?

Is there a next move before "Catchers and Pitchers Report"?

 

Probably?

 

So maybe Falvine know more than we do?

 

My thinking...lets step back...enjoy the fantastic Josh Donaldson Epic signing

and chill out and watch for some more Falvine magic?

 

Go Twins 2020!!!!

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#154 SwainZag

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Posted 15 January 2020 - 01:50 AM

 

I have to admit, I'm not as excited about this as you all. Between injuries, payroll concerns, and a drop in production vs NL pitching, not to mention he's now 34 (Mauer was basically on his last leg at that age), I can see this going badly. For one or two years, fine, but even those years are risky. I'm not so sure this is as good a deal as you all think it is. Hope I'm wrong.

 

What are the payroll concerns?This deal didn't put them in outrageous territory.With all the money that came off the books, everyone was looking to where the Twins were going to spend their money....this is it.

 

Donalson in 2019 vs NL pitching:.259/.379/.521/127 OPS+

Donaldson in 2017/18 vs AL pitch: .262/.375/.525/139 OPS+

 

Yes, he did get injured in 2018 and yes he is a little older, but worried about switching leagues vs pitching should mean little to nothing when it comes to hitters.

 

Age.Comparing to Mauer just isn't the standard.I love Joe more than almost anyone, but his years at catcher, combined with the injuries made him a shell of his former self at age 33.Not only did Donaldson have an above average year with the glove, he was also above career averages across the board with the bat.While using Joe at the same age can provide some foreshadowing on aging, using only him and no one else is prettyshort sighted.  

 

While I am a little concerned on how he will age, and years 3 and 4 he might not produce up to his salary......I love the signing.  

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#155 shimrod

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Posted 15 January 2020 - 04:03 AM

I've been highly critical of the FO, and I'd like to state now that even if this goes south on them, due to injury or other factors, this was the right move. It makes a statement about the teams future direction and will, in my opinion, make the next FA acquisition easier. 

 

I would also like to address the offseason/trade deadline pitching issue. It should be noted our staff will be weakest at the beginning of the year, due to suspension and rehab. Every game counts, and if we wait until the deadline it may be too late. Let's start the year with a bang. 

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#156 ScooterDance

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Posted 15 January 2020 - 06:04 AM

6 guys who hit 30HR last year
Another who led the team in WAR
Another who may lead the league in BA
Another who may have the best chance to win an MVP award this year.

Decent lineup.
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#157 by jiminy

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Posted 15 January 2020 - 06:30 AM

My favorite part about this is thinking about how afraid other teams will be when they come to play here! I think we'll see some teams pressing, desperately swinging for the fences in a futile effort to keep pace.

#158 bighat

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Posted 15 January 2020 - 06:35 AM

 

Way to go Falvine! Ya got 'er dun! I guess I'll need to pick off a crow this spring and serve it up to myself.

If you find a good recipe, let me know. Right now I'm looking for some BBQ sauce to put on my hat that I'll be eating for breakfast.

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#159 by jiminy

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Posted 15 January 2020 - 06:41 AM

Yes he's an injury risk, but the fact that they knew that and paid him anyway makes me give then even more credit for going for it!

And this lineup is DEEP! Those scary 1 through 9 lineups above don't even include Marwin! They are built to just keep on coming at you, even when injuries hit.

This is not one if those all your eggs in one basket free agent gambles. Worst case, Sano or Gonzales covers third, and we're fine. (Or Adriana or Arraez or Astidillo...)

Very impressed at the team they built, short and long term.
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#160 by jiminy

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Posted 15 January 2020 - 06:41 AM

Regarding pitching, a trade for an up and comer would be great, but I wouldn't mortgage the future for an aging vet. It's possible the pitching we need is already in the system. If they strike gold with Graterol, Balazovic, Dobnak, Thorpe, or Duran, this team is set up to compete for a long time.
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