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Mackey: How to Fix the Twins? (Part 3)

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#1 Seth Stohs

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 12:17 PM

You'll want to read Part 1 and Part 2 as well, but in Part 3, PHIL makes a few reasonable moves and shows what that could mean for the Twins. A couple of smart moves and some improvements by key young players and it feels realistic.

http://www.1500espn....rade_fits103112

#2 mikeee

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 01:48 PM

He seems pretty optimistic if the moves are made.

#3 PseudoSABR

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 02:07 PM

Span for Mike Minor seems pretty wishful to me.

#4 ThePuck

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 03:01 PM

Span for Mike Minor seems pretty wishful to me.


It's apparent you don't think much of Span, which is probably where the disconnect is. Span was rated as the 3rd best defensive CF in baseball by the voters giving the Fielding Bible awards and he's a pretty darn good leadoff guy who sees a lot of pitches and has a team friendly contract. I guess some of us feel there's more value there than you think there is.

#5 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 03:03 PM

Span for Minor: Why exactly would the Braves make this trade?
Marcum for 6 mil a year for 2 years? That is extremely wishful thinking, Marcum is one of the top 3 or 4 pitchers on the market. He is going to get paid.

#6 PseudoSABR

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 03:03 PM

Span for Mike Minor seems pretty wishful to me.


It's apparent you don't think much of Span, which is probably where the disconnect is. Span was rated as the 3rd best defensive CF in baseball by the voters giving the Fielding Bible awards and he's a pretty darn good leadoff guy who sees a lot of pitches and has a team friendly contract. I guess some of us feel there's more value there than you think there is.

I see a lot of value, just not as much as a starting pitcher who's been healthy, under twenty five, and under team control for four years.

Span's health issues do play a big part in my view of his ability to fetch a return, which is something I think we've been understating.

#7 ThePuck

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 03:05 PM

Span for Minor: Why exactly would the Braves make this trade?
Marcum for 6 mil a year for 2 years? That is extremely wishful thinking, Marcum is one of the top 3 or 4 pitchers on the market. He is going to get paid.


Who is playing CF for Atlanta next year? Any idea?

#8 Alex

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 03:10 PM

Well, if rumors are true and Span has been shopped around, the rest of the league doesn't value Span as highly as the Twins do. My guess is if they could/can get starting pitching for him they will pull the trigger. I personally agree with PseudoSABR, that that kind of player is a major reach for Span.

#9 ThePuck

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 03:10 PM

[quote name='PseudoSABR'][quote name='ThePuck'][quote name='PseudoSABR']Span for Mike Minor seems pretty wishful to me.[/QUOTE]

It's apparent you don't think much of Span, which is probably where the disconnect is. Span was rated as the 3rd best defensive CF in baseball by the voters giving the Fielding Bible awards and he's a pretty darn good leadoff guy who sees a lot of pitches and has a team friendly contract. I guess some of us feel there's more value there than you think there is.[/QUOTE]I see a lot of value, just not as much as a starting pitcher who's been healthy, under twenty five, and under team control for four years.

Span's health issues do play a big part in my view of his ability to fetch a return, which is something I think we've been understating.[/QUOTE]

That pitcher also hasn't done a whole lot yet at the major league level...none of his major league numbers really stand out especially when you consider he's an NL pitcher. And pitching is an area of strength for the team. I understand there's a lot of hype around him, based on him being a #7 pick and some of his minor league numbers, but we still don't know for sure how good he'll be here.

Me, personally, I don't see if happening either, but I don't think it's far-fetched.

#10 ThePuck

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 03:11 PM

Well, if rumors are true and Span has been shopped around, the rest of the league doesn't value Span as highly as the Twins do. My guess is if they could/can get starting pitching for him they will pull the trigger. I personally agree with PseudoSABR, that that kind of player is a major reach for Span.


Or the Twins are doing what they always do WAY overvaluing their trade chips...

#11 Willihammer

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 03:16 PM

The most team friendly part of Span's team-friendly contract has passed. For comparison, the Rays are getting about 1 Win/$1m spent on their core players. Unless you think Span is going to rattle off 10 wins in the next two seasons, he'll probably need to be packaged with someone else or cash to get a decent SP in return, esp. one who is young and/or relatively cheap. That is before even considering things like his concussion issues or age.

#12 Boom Boom

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 03:19 PM

He's got Dozier starting at 2B and getting 450 PAs and Florimon starting at SS and getting 340 PAs... but no new middle infielders.

#13 John Bonnes

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 03:20 PM

I thought this was really well done. It doesn't shy away from details and throws in enough sabr math to support the conclusions without going overboard. I also think he's probably a little low on the cost of Marcum, but he has room to go higher. Mike Minor might be a reach for Span, but he might not, and he gives some other names worth considering from Atlanta.

#14 ThePuck

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 03:23 PM

The most team friendly part of Span's team-friendly contract has passed. For comparison, the Rays are getting about 1 Win/$1m spent on their core players. Unless you think Span is going to rattle off 10 wins in the next two seasons, he'll probably need to be packaged with someone else or cash to get a decent SP in return, esp. one who is young and/or relatively cheap. That is before even considering things like his concussion issues or age.


His age being all of 29...

Okay...so...let's say they don't want to use Jennings in CF, which FA CF is gonna be cheaper than Span over the next two years who is also younger and fits their leadoff needs?

BTW, I also mentioned Revere at the beginning of all this...

#15 TheLeviathan

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 03:43 PM

Okay...so...let's say they don't want to use Jennings in CF, which FA CF is gonna be cheaper than Span over the next two years who is also younger and fits their leadoff needs?

BTW, I also mentioned Revere at the beginning of all this...


So first to back up your point you make an assumption that is extremely favorable to your viewpoint? Cmon. The Rays have never acted in a way that is restricted by such limited, conventional thinking. They won't be taken to the woodshed in a Span deal because of some perceived "need" for a certain type of player at one position. Leadoff hitters don't have to play CF - they can address their OBP needs in other ways without Span. Your entire premise in this thread is built on the idea that we have Tampa right where we want them. That's hardly the case. The deal makes some sense for both sides and is worth exploring, but it is a bit far fetched to think you'll land Shields for Span. Just as it is that you'll land a top SP prospect for him.

#16 ThePuck

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 03:47 PM

So first to back up your point you make an assumption that is extremely favorable to your viewpoint? Cmon. The Rays have never acted in a way that is restricted by such limited, conventional thinking. They won't be taken to the woodshed in a Span deal because of some perceived "need" for a certain type of player at one position. Leadoff hitters don't have to play CF - they can address their OBP needs in other ways without Span. Your entire premise in this thread is built on the idea that we have Tampa right where we want them. That's hardly the case. The deal makes some sense for both sides and is worth exploring, but it is a bit far fetched to think you'll land Shields for Span. Just as it is that you'll land a top SP prospect for him.


Okay..I never said that the CF had to be a leadoff guy...just that they need a CF and a leadoff guy and him being able to do both works in his value...and I never said we have them right where we want them, just that it makes a lot of sense for both sides because of the things TB is looking to address...

And, as John Bonnes already stated, 'Jason Collette, who I trust, says the Rays are almost undoubtedly going to be interested in acquiring a CFer this year. He wouldn't rule out a Shields for Span deal, straight up. '

Now, maybe the guy I asked will answer the question...since it was about value...

Edited by ThePuck, 01 November 2012 - 03:56 PM.


#17 Brandon

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 03:58 PM

He's got Dozier starting at 2B and getting 450 PAs and Florimon starting at SS and getting 340 PAs... but no new middle infielders.


I don't have them doing anything there either this offseason as I believe their goal of solid defense is in place and will suffice for now. Once they know what they have for pitching next year and see how Arcia, Hicks, and Parmalee develop I can see one of them being traded either in July next year or next offseason for a SS.

#18 ThePuck

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 04:00 PM

He's got Dozier starting at 2B and getting 450 PAs and Florimon starting at SS and getting 340 PAs... but no new middle infielders.


I don't have them doing anything there either this offseason as I believe their goal of solid defense is in place and will suffice for now. Once they know what they have for pitching next year and see how Arcia, Hicks, and Parmalee develop I can see one of them being traded either in July next year or next offseason for a SS.


Do you believe having Dozier at 2B and Florimon at shortstop gives us solid defense?

#19 JP3700

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 04:42 PM

I don't see why people undervalue Span so much here. He's a 2-4 win player at a minimum. If you include his option he's slated to make $20 million in the next 3 years. Angel Pagan is going to cost around 5 years, $60 million. Which player/contract would you choose? His health issue was due to a concussion in 2011 that didn't affect him all of 2012. He hurt his shoulder on a diving catch in 2012, it's not like he has a lingering injury that he can't seem to get over.

I think people feel his value is low because he hasn't been traded yet. I feel that's due to the Twins asking for too much, not teams undervaluing him.

#20 Seth Stohs

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 05:06 PM

Do you believe having Dozier at 2B and Florimon at shortstop gives us solid defense?


I do, especially when you've got Jamey Carroll playing as much at the two positions.

#21 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 05:14 PM

I don't see why people undervalue Span so much here. He's a 2-4 win player at a minimum. If you include his option he's slated to make $20 million in the next 3 years. Angel Pagan is going to cost around 5 years, $60 million. Which player/contract would you choose? .

What a terrible example.

I'd also prefer that contract over Vernon Wells, Werth etc etc

#22 JP3700

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 05:42 PM

I don't see why people undervalue Span so much here. He's a 2-4 win player at a minimum. If you include his option he's slated to make $20 million in the next 3 years. Angel Pagan is going to cost around 5 years, $60 million. Which player/contract would you choose? .

What a terrible example.

I'd also prefer that contract over Vernon Wells, Werth etc etc


I was comparing two center fielders with similar skill sets and value. One is a free agent and the other is available via trade.

Then you venture off to two corner outfielders that have nothing to do with Span's value in a trade. Yet you call my example terrible?

#23 TheLeviathan

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 07:06 PM

just that it makes a lot of sense for both sides because of the things TB is looking to address...


There are plenty of ways they could address things. They could put Jennings in CF and look for another OF to bat leadoff. There are a multitude of ways any team could do things.

You're getting caught over-valuing a player you watch every day. Span is a player with concussion issues who is very solid, but unspectacular. You're not going to get anyone's prime trade bait with him alone. If Ryan pulls that off, great, but attacking anyone that questions that kind of speculation has plenty of flaws too.

#24 ThePuck

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 09:10 PM

just that it makes a lot of sense for both sides because of the things TB is looking to address...


There are plenty of ways they could address things. They could put Jennings in CF and look for another OF to bat leadoff. There are a multitude of ways any team could do things.

You're getting caught over-valuing a player you watch every day. Span is a player with concussion issues who is very solid, but unspectacular. You're not going to get anyone's prime trade bait with him alone. If Ryan pulls that off, great, but attacking anyone that questions that kind of speculation has plenty of flaws too.


Ah, I see...since you and I disagree on his value/abilities, it must be that I'M getting caught over-valuing a player I watch daily. Fantastic fact based argument. You couldn't possibly be wrong and undervaluing a player you watch daily. Are the people who do the Fielding Bible award over-valuing his defense based on watching him daily as well when they rated him the 3rd best defensive CF in baseball this year? Fangraphs saying he's 2nd in range, 2nd in UZR and 2nd in defensive runs saved, are they bias too? What about the people at Baseball-reference who have his WAR at 28th AL players (23 for Fangraphs)? Them too?

#25 johnnydakota

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 09:55 PM

Okay...so...let's say they don't want to use Jennings in CF, which FA CF is gonna be cheaper than Span over the next two years who is also younger and fits their leadoff needs?

BTW, I also mentioned Revere at the beginning of all this...


So first to back up your point you make an assumption that is extremely favorable to your viewpoint? Cmon. The Rays have never acted in a way that is restricted by such limited, conventional thinking. They won't be taken to the woodshed in a Span deal because of some perceived "need" for a certain type of player at one position. Leadoff hitters don't have to play CF - they can address their OBP needs in other ways without Span. Your entire premise in this thread is built on the idea that we have Tampa right where we want them. That's hardly the case. The deal makes some sense for both sides and is worth exploring, but it is a bit far fetched to think you'll land Shields for Span. Just as it is that you'll land a top SP prospect for him.


with tampa looking to shed payroll and fill needs from excess same as the twins it looks like a good fit , we may have to throw in some non factors prospects like hernandez or hermsen but they aint going to help us so trade em

#26 glunn

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 10:32 PM

[quote name='johnnydakota'][quote name='TheLeviathan'][quote name='ThePuck']Okay...so...let's say they don't want to use Jennings in CF, which FA CF is gonna be cheaper than Span over the next two years who is also younger and fits their leadoff needs?

BTW, I also mentioned Revere at the beginning of all this...[/QUOTE]

So first to back up your point you make an assumption that is extremely favorable to your viewpoint? Cmon. The Rays have never acted in a way that is restricted by such limited, conventional thinking. They won't be taken to the woodshed in a Span deal because of some perceived "need" for a certain type of player at one position. Leadoff hitters don't have to play CF - they can address their OBP needs in other ways without Span. Your entire premise in this thread is built on the idea that we have Tampa right where we want them. That's hardly the case. The deal makes some sense for both sides and is worth exploring, but it is a bit far fetched to think you'll land Shields for Span. Just as it is that you'll land a top SP prospect for him.[/QUOTE]

with tampa looking to shed payroll and fill needs from excess same as the twins it looks like a good fit , we may have to throw in some non factors prospects like hernandez or hermsen but they aint going to help us so trade em[/QUOTE]

Obviously, some GMs will value Span more than others. But the idea of trading Span for a solid starter who is affordable seems appealing, even if it's necessary to throw in a prospect or two to make the deal happen.

I also like the idea of bidding high for Anibal Sanchez -- he seems like a solid #2 -- and taking him would might weaken the Tigers.

#27 Top Gun

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Posted 02 November 2012 - 06:30 AM

You can't trade with yourself.

#28 sorney

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Posted 02 November 2012 - 06:48 AM

Well, if rumors are true and Span has been shopped around, the rest of the league doesn't value Span as highly as the Twins do. My guess is if they could/can get starting pitching for him they will pull the trigger. I personally agree with PseudoSABR, that that kind of player is a major reach for Span.


Or the Twins are doing what they always do WAY overvaluing their trade chips...


Unfortunately that always *seems* to be the case that they over value their trade chips....
Well, except for Ramos :)

#29 ThePuck

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Posted 02 November 2012 - 07:53 AM

Unfortunately that always *seems* to be the case that they over value their trade chips....
Well, except for Ramos :)


Yeah, there have been some blatant exceptions, haven't there. My bad. :-)

#30 old nurse

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Posted 02 November 2012 - 07:59 AM



Unfortunately that always *seems* to be the case that they over value their trade chips....
Well, except for Ramos :)


Yeah, there have been some blatant exceptions, haven't there. My bad. :-)


What trade chips has Ryan overvalued? Please don't use Bill Smith trades.