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#21 Twodogs

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Posted 12 January 2020 - 08:35 AM

Speaking of Red Sox. The Twins could just sign Mitch Moreland to a 1 year deal. He has decent power, decent on base%, good fielder and then just leave Sano at 3rd for another year. Plus it doesn't really block Krilloff or Lanarch, either one of those guys, whoever has the ability to make the club could work a couple of games a week in at 1st also. I can't see Moreland being expensive. I'd liken it to kind of getting a better fielding version of CJ Cron??
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#22 Twodogs

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Posted 12 January 2020 - 08:41 AM

I haven’t played with sites like baseballtradevalues.com, but they would suggest that either Lewis or Kiriloff is a big overpay for Bryant straight up.

Graterol or Larnach are the two that are closest to Bryant in a 1 for 1. In a 2 for 1, think something like Balzovic and Urbina. In a 3 for 1, Jeffers, Urbina and one of Gordon, Enlow, or Celestino.

The second paragraph has names I like, but none that are untouchable. Between Bryant and Donaldson, I think they are pretty comparable for 2020 and 2021, and I think we’d be glad not to be paying Donaldson $25MM in 2022 and 2023.


Well the one thing about Donaldson in 22 and 23 is that Cruz will be gone and at that point Donaldson can DH a lot of the season, pretty sure that would save on his body a little bit when he is 36 and 37, plus he can focused more on his hitting then also. So he'd still have a spot in the lineup even when he's a little older. So in my mind it's not the best excuse to not go after him.

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#23 JLease

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Posted 12 January 2020 - 08:54 AM

 

Because Sano is pushing 300 pounds and his sabremetric fielding stats have gotten much worse the past couple of years.

 

Do they, though? Let's look at the actual stats for the last 3 years from bRef:

 

Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average/year (at 3B, based on a projection of 1200 innings):

2017: -16

2018: -6

2019: -13

 

BIS Defensive Runs Saved Above Average/year (at 3B, based on projection of 1200 innings):

2017: -9

2018: -15

2019: -8

 

How is that getting appreciably worse? I'm not going to say that he's good by any means at 3B, but suggesting the advanced stats are saying he's getting worse at 3B (or suggesting he's too fat to play 3B)

just isn't borne out by the evidence.

 

Yes, he's "worse" than his age 23 season (where he played only 42 games at 3B, fewer than any time in the last 3 years, and roughly half of what he actually played there in 2017 & 2019...maybe small sample size was a factor there?) and his age 22 season...where he only played 9 games at 3B and any projection makes little sense.

 

The sabermetrics are telling me that Sano is a fairly poor fielder at 3B, and has been for the past three years. They're not telling me much about whether he's getting better or worse overall; the best argument is probably that's he's basically been the same guy on defense there for the last three years. (and incidentally they also say he's awful in the OF and should never play there and the jury's out on him at 1B)

 

Back to Kris Bryant: would I be interested in dealing Larnach and a tier three lottery ticket from A-ball for Bryant? I'd definitely think about it. I'd still rather just sign Donaldson, and I'd still rather spend prospect capital on pitching, but now we're talking a deal that at least makes more sense for the Twins. But you have to be betting that Kris Bryant is going to get back to his all-star form and will like it enough here that he'd consider staying, either signing an extension early or sticking when he hits FA. He's been an elite player, but hasn't been one for a few years. He is young enough that getting a rebound right now is certainly very possible, so if the deal lines up it's worth considering. But a package of Kirilloff/Lewis + one of Graterol/Larnach/Balazovic and a kicker from the ranks of someone at the Blankenhorn level is a pretty massive overpay, IMHO.

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#24 tony&rodney

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Posted 12 January 2020 - 09:18 AM

The Twins would be nuts to trade any of their top seven prospects for Bryant.

This is especially true because Donaldson is available, prospect free.

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#25 rdehring

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Posted 12 January 2020 - 09:21 AM

No, No and heck no!

 

See a lot of conversation about Sano's defense.Let's acknowledge one fact from 2019, he didn't have a spring training and was back on the field in May following a brief minor league rehab assignment following his injury.Don't know what effect that had on his defense, however, gotta believe it had some.  

 

With that said, I don't see him as being a good defensive third baseman.Just that he may be better, or not as bad, as we saw last summer.  


#26 Linus

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Posted 12 January 2020 - 09:37 AM

Because Sano is pushing 300 pounds and his sabremetric fielding stats have gotten much worse the past couple of years.


Defense at third base is not even close to the top of the Twins problems.
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#27 bighat

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Posted 12 January 2020 - 09:49 AM

Twins are going to miss out on the 3rd base prospects and end up grabbing a guy like Mitch Moreland, Greg Bird, or Matt Adams to play 1st base.


#28 tony&rodney

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Posted 12 January 2020 - 10:56 AM

The Twins can use a smorgasbord of players at 1B: Gonzalez, Adrianza, Kepler, Sano, Garver, Astudillo, Rooker, Kirilloff, and others. If they sign Donaldson the options narrow, but the team is improved. If not JD, then the only true focus for this year is pitching and we can hope that this might be something substantial gathered through a trade. 3B is not a concern. 

I do encourage the front office to be in touch with all teams for surprising options that may arise: Story, Betts, Gray, and so forth.

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#29 TwinsFan268

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Posted 12 January 2020 - 12:26 PM

Yes yes yes! This is the signing that we are looking for! A younger player who is great defensively. As an anti-Donaldson Twins fan, I know that this is what we have to do. Let's try it!

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#30 etwink

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Posted 12 January 2020 - 01:41 PM

In general, if you can add a top-flight “known commodity” - such as Bryant - for a couple minor leaguers who are not sure things, this is always a good option. Always.

 

Whether you actually pull the trigger is based on how much losing those minor leaguers will affect your major league team.

 

So, if we are trading away two MiLB hitters for a guy like Bryant; when the MLB team is currently LOADED with young hitters......I’m just not getting the hand-wringing.  Yes, those guys could turn into stars, but come on now we don’t have room for everyone!!  Trading Larnach and Kiriloff for instance, while it would be a blow, is not like trading away Ruth and Gehrig....or even Mauer and Morneau, and it gets value out of the players.  No, to Graterol and literally any of our better pitching prospects, obviously, but why wouldn’t you take a shot at loading up this team, when we have so much other talent?

 

We, as Twins fans, have to break out of this mindset where anyone in the minors is worth 10X any trade option.  All that gets us is teams that are decent but not superior (like the 2019 team) because we are constantly waiting for guys to mature, rather than paying for talent and loading up for a shot at the title......like virtually every other winning franchise.


#31 bobs

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Posted 12 January 2020 - 01:53 PM

Would I like to have Kris Bryant?Of course.Would I mortgage that much of the future for one (maybe 2) years of him?No.  


#32 rv78

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Posted 12 January 2020 - 03:25 PM

I agree that prospects are just that, prospects. No one knows what they will turn into. Even the best prospects. Any positional players in the minors where there is extra depth should be considered for trade. Pitching will never be one of them. But you also have to consider who you are trading for, what they are worth and how long you can keep them. If you want to upgrade 3B Bryant isn't anywhere close to the value of a Arenado. If 1B is really the need then why trade for a 3rd baseman. Again and again and again... Sano will not help at 1B and will probably last there 1 year. DH is where he'll settle once Cruz is gone. This team needs to trade for pitching and if you're going to move a Lewis or Kiriloff or Larnach then get quality pitching in return. 


#33 Sconnie

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Posted 12 January 2020 - 04:34 PM

Others have brought this up, and I’ve finally come around to it.

If not Donaldson, I’d rather the Twins get a SS and move Polanco to 3B.
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#34 specialiststeve

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Posted 12 January 2020 - 04:44 PM

As much as I like Bryant I would think with his contract issues we would need to pass... Having only 2 year of control and maybe 1 would to me mean if we were going to trade for him we trade Rosario and a lower level guy... would be fine with... as both are 2 years out. 

 

Like most would like Donaldson if he ever makes up his mind... nice that we are still in the running but that has not gone great this off-season. But getting one stud each year is/would be a good offseason.

 

Otherwise some trade targets I would look at....that may cost less..... or more....

 

Jake Lamb (Ariz).... often injured but last healthy was in the discussion for an MVP... likely would be pretty cheap....

 

Kevin Cron (Ariz) has LIT up AAA but has been blocked and likely would again be fairly reasonable. Also would be under control. He would play 1st... Sano stays at 3B. 

 

Xander Bogarts (With David Price) Would likely cost us Lewis, one of our top OF prospects and a P prospect but... Bogarts is a top glove/bat combo that is signed for the next 7 years... Have to eat Price's contract but he would be a nice addition to our rotation. Polanco to 2nd - Arraez to 3rd and our offense is still very good and our defense is light years better. Highly unlikely but I like! 

 

Matt Chapman... Would take a Bagart type deal but would again take our defense up a big notch and offense would be quality also... would get for next 3 years.... 

 

Jed Lowrie... 10 mil for 2 years... would need to come with either Matz (2 years of use or Stroman who will be a FA after this year. Mets would like to move him...

 

Or last ...but very possible they put Gonzalez at 3rd who is solid there... Sano over to 1st and Bring up either Gordon or Blankenhorn to take Gonzalez utility position... Actually if we don't land Donaldson I really see this happening. 

 

 

 

 


#35 Thrylos

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Posted 12 January 2020 - 04:51 PM

Here are some 2019 numbers:

 

 

DRS
Sano -5
Bryant -7

 

+/-
Sano -5
Bryant -5

 

RZR
Sano .717
Bryant .686

 

UZR
Sano -6.7
Bryant -1.4

 

I don't see how it makes sense to get Bryant to "improve" the defense.Other than UZR he is close or worse than Sano with the glove.

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#36 dbminn

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Posted 12 January 2020 - 09:50 PM

I wouldn't trade Lewis/Kirilloff plus Graterol/Duran for two years of Bryant. That's a big overpay. 

 

Bryant Value Using FanGraphs WAR Values and Schwarz Arb Estimate for 2021:

 

4.7 WAR in 2020 x $8.2M = $38.5M

4.7 WAR in 2021 x $8.4M x 0.92 = $36.3M (8% discount rate, 3% WAR inflation)

 

$18.6M contract in 2020

$26.0M contract in 2021 (60% of WAR Value)

 

Total Excess Value: ($74.8M - 44.6M) = $30.2M

 

Twins FG Prospect Values:

 

$55M - Lewis (60FV)

$28M - Larnach, Kirilloff (50FV, Position Player)

$21M - Graterol, Duran, Balazovic (50FV, Pitcher)

 

At retail, Bryant is worth maybe (Duran + Jeffers) for two years of control. Probably have to add one or two young prospects due to demand.

 

I wouldn't trade six years of Kirilloff and Graterol for Bryant, let alone Lewis+. I'd rather overpay for Donaldson and save the prospects for a controllable SP.

 

 

 

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#37 cmoss84

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Posted 12 January 2020 - 11:50 PM

If we are going to trade our top prospects...trade for Arenado (and Gray?).
Bryant...yes...If price is right. But chances are, it's not.

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#38 Doctor Wu

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Posted 13 January 2020 - 05:31 AM

 

Bryant is a tier 1 type player. The Twins don't acquire tier 1 players. No need to speculate on this one. It won't happen. And he really isn't much of an upgrade defensively over Sano. If 3B is really a concern then Donaldson is the guy. If 3B isn't much of a concern then the Twins will continue to wait on Donaldson until he signs elsewhere instead of giving him what he wants and then saying, well we were in the mix, we tried, he didn't want to play here. Nothing new. Another feeble attempt was made, let's move on. Yippee!

Spot on. No chance of the Twins ever making a trade like that.


#39 IndianaTwin

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Posted 13 January 2020 - 08:06 AM

 

Here are some 2019 numbers:

 

 

DRS
Sano -5
Bryant -7

 

+/-
Sano -5
Bryant -5

 

RZR
Sano .717
Bryant .686

 

UZR
Sano -6.7
Bryant -1.4

 

I don't see how it makes sense to get Bryant to "improve" the defense.Other than UZR he is close or worse than Sano with the glove.

 

Thanks — that’s really helpful. It also highlights a perception I’ve had that while Sano’s defense is below average, it’s not REALLY, REALLY bad, to the degree of doing something like, oh, I don’t know, trying him in the outfield. 

 

But that’s because I don’t know how to interpret fielding statistics. I’m guessing I’m not the only one. I’d love to see someone write an article that could serve as a primer on defensive stats, highlighting what they each mean, what are perceived as the strengths and weaknesses of each stat, what’s the range of players (i.e., at what number does below average turn into bad turn into horrible, and similarly on the positive side), etc.  


#40 Number3

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Posted 13 January 2020 - 08:27 AM

No




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