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Front Page: Let’s Wait to Declare the Offseason a Failure for the Minnesota Twins

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#161 Major League Ready

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Posted 13 January 2020 - 03:25 PM

 

If we judge them based on other team's actions, I assume you would condemn them for not dealing for starting pitching at the last deadline, like the successful teams have? 

 

Exactly which successful teams dealt for "impact" SPs last year at the deadline? Each year has a unique set of circumstances so you can compare just any year. I guess we could Stroman as an impact SP but the Mets are hardly an example of success. One 90 win (exactly 90) season in the past decade with 2 other seasons over 500. Obviously, Cole / Strassburg and Ryu were not going to be traded so they don't count but none of the playoff teams were willing to pay the price necessary to get Wheeler/Madbum or any other impact SP.


#162 Mike Sixel

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Posted 13 January 2020 - 03:30 PM

 

Exactly which successful teams dealt for "impact" SPs last year at the deadline?

 

Sigh. We are talking about multiple years here, right? So, I don't know, Houston when they first got good? I really try hard to have a conversation with you in good faith......Boston did. So did the Cubs. Just not last year, because they already had good / great pitching.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#163 prouster

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Posted 13 January 2020 - 04:00 PM

Well, better off-season than the Astros.
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#164 USAFChief

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Posted 13 January 2020 - 04:05 PM

 

Exactly which successful teams dealt for "impact" SPs last year at the deadline? Each year has a unique set of circumstances so you can compare just any year. I guess we could Stroman as an impact SP but the Mets are hardly an example of success. One 90 win (exactly 90) season in the past decade with 2 other seasons over 500. Obviously, Cole / Strassburg and Ryu were not going to be traded so they don't count but none of the playoff teams were willing to pay the price necessary to get Wheeler/Madbum or any other impact SP.

Even restricting it to "the deadline," someone traded for Grienke, no? Would Houston fall under your definition of a successful team?

 

 

If we could expand that to last offseason, Washington--somewhat successful--added Patrick Corbin to a team that already had Sherzer and Strassburg. 

 

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#165 Major League Ready

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Posted 13 January 2020 - 04:31 PM

 

Sigh. We are talking about multiple years here, right? So, I don't know, Houston when they first got good? I really try hard to have a conversation with you in good faith......Boston did. So did the Cubs. Just not last year, because they already had good / great pitching.

 

No. You are talking about multiple years. I am talking about last year. The market is different ever year. The asking price was apparently high enough last year than none of the actual playoff ("successful") teams were willing to trade for a SP. Fact or fiction? They signed not one but two BP arms and I don't think they needed any help with position players.

 

 Also last year was the first year in a very long time where the Twins were at least somewhat legit contenders. You may count the year they crept into the 2nd wildcard spot with a team that really was never a contender but I do not.


#166 Major League Ready

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Posted 13 January 2020 - 04:44 PM

 

Even restricting it to "the deadline," someone traded for Grienke, no? Would Houston fall under your definition of a successful team?

 

 

If we could expand that to last offseason, Washington--somewhat successful--added Patrick Corbin to a team that already had Sherzer and Strassburg. 

 

Fair enough on Greinke but you guys sure do bend the narrative to your liking. We are talking about the specifics of this year's market. The argument was the Twins failed because they refused to pay the premium required. Mike could not refute the point that none of the other teams that were in on Wheeler / Bumgarner were willing to pay the premium associated with those players. This specificity allows us to judge our FO vs all of the other FOs involved. Let's be clear. All of the other teams involved concluded Wheeler and Bumgarner DID NOT merit the premium required to get them away from their preferred team. Rather than concede this point Mike changed the argument to what about deadline trades. 


#167 USAFChief

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Posted 13 January 2020 - 04:55 PM

Fair enough on Greinke but you guys sure do bend the narrative to your liking. We are talking about the specifics of this year's market. The argument was the Twins failed because they refused to pay the premium required. Mike could not refute the point that none of the other teams that were in on Wheeler / Bumgarner were willing to pay the premium associated with those players. This specificity allows us to judge our FO vs all of the other FOs involved. Let's be clear. All of the other teams involved concluded Wheeler and Bumgarner DID NOT merit the premium required to get them away from their preferred team. Rather than concede this point Mike changed the argument to what about deadline trades.

WE bend the narrative?

You posted twice that no team traded for a pitcher last deadline.

Cutting my carbs...with a pizza slicer.


#168 Don Walcott

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Posted 13 January 2020 - 04:59 PM

 

Even restricting it to "the deadline," someone traded for Grienke, no? Would Houston fall under your definition of a successful team?

 

 

If we could expand that to last offseason, Washington--somewhat successful--added Patrick Corbin to a team that already had Sherzer and Strassburg. 

I sure wish we had Greinke right now. I wish he was available.

 

Corbin, too, for that matter.

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#169 howieramone2

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Posted 13 January 2020 - 05:21 PM

Corbin is a great example for those keeping score at home. Our buds the large market Yankees had him all but tied up. After much reflection, they adamantly refused to add an additional year to the deal. The large market Nationals came out of nowhere, swooped down and gave him the final year. It's not fair, why can't we be a large market team?

#170 ewen21

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Posted 13 January 2020 - 05:30 PM

 

 

Don't try, don't give up, don't take "well, my fiance kinda prefers New Jersey" for an answer. 

 

Be reasonable.  

 

Cole and Strasburg just weren't realistic.If you think we had a snowballs chance in hell landing either then please give me a paragraph on how USAFChief would have handled it.

 

Bumgarner was very clear about leaving money on the table to play in Arizona.It was his preference.Not sure how you would have swung that.Please be specific and explain how you would have worked that one.I am curious.

 

As far as Wheeler is concerned, he has an extensive injury history.Over the course of three seasons 2015 to 2017 he pitched a total of 86 innings.Are you saying we needed to hit a number higher than Philadelphia?What do you prescribe?I think it is an insane contract that Philly will most likely regret.

 

I have been through Ryu with you.

 

If you want to make signings that don't make no sense then OK whatever.Giving Wheeler and Ryu more than what they got is terminally stupid.The only one I think signed what could be termed as a reasonable contract was Bumgarner.  

 

You seem to forget what free agent means, specifically with higher level free agents.It means they are free to go where they want to go and if they have a short list of places they want to play then that is where they are going to go.When we get into guys earning 9 figures then money stops mattering.Another 20 million means nothing to a guy who knows he's going to earn 9 figures and go where he wants to go.You believe the Twins can coax guys with money and you really need to give up the ghost with that.It just ain't happening in 2020.


#171 ashbury

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Posted 13 January 2020 - 06:23 PM

Let’s Wait to Declare the Offseason a Failure for the Minnesota Twins

I'm fine with waiting. Such a declaration looks like one that will stand the test of time.

 

Actually I don't see it as a failure, so much as a gamble. FalVine seem to be saying, "nah, we're good. We have Dobnak and Thorpe and Smeltzer." Which brings to mind this old chestnut:

 

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Maybe, having signed recent contract extensions, they don't view the gamble as involving their careers. I've said before, if I were the boss, I'd disagree.
 

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#172 howieramone2

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Posted 13 January 2020 - 06:57 PM

Falvey has large market team written all over him. If Friedman moves on, no doubt he'll take over the Beach Boys.

#173 Sconnie

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Posted 13 January 2020 - 08:32 PM

I have no way of knowing if a larger offer could have lured Wheeler away from Philadelphia.

But what a do know is that offering him less wasn't going to do it.

That's my main beef with the way this FO operates in free agency.
(And for the record I still support them.) Offering less money isn't going to lure them away from somewhere they prefer to be, so why even make that offer? That's why i have a hard time considering these "serious" offers.
Yes, $100M is a lot of money. Even in the context of pro athletes, it's a lot of money. But it's still less than the amount offered by his preferred destination!

And to go on record, I'd have matched the Ryu offer. I think in the context of this FA period, it's a very reasonable contract.
All pitchers are injury risks, every single one.

I agree with this almost entirely except to add a “yes, but”

It is possible to offer a lower total contract at more attractive terms. If for instance Donaldson’s offer from the Nats was 4 years 100M but half of the contract is deferred out over 12 years, while the Twins offer of 4 years 90 all during the 4 years, the Twins would be the better deal by time value of money.

But yeah, it still needs to be a better deal for the player.

#174 IndianaTwin

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Posted 14 January 2020 - 10:08 PM

NOW can I say that it was too early to evaluate the offseason on January 11?

It’s still too early, by the way.

#175 The Wise One

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Posted 20 January 2020 - 06:28 PM

 

No one is expecting that. If they could afford a $130 million payroll in 2018, it stands to reason they can afford a $140 million payroll in 2020 given higher ticket sales and inflation. Instead they're sitting a $110.

"According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Twins' estimated payroll obligation for 2020 is around $136.8 million, factoring in the $21 million that Donaldson will make and the $7 million that Sanó will now earn this season. The Twins' previous record for Opening Day payroll was $128.7 million in 2018."

 

per https://www.mlb.com/...2020-and-beyond