I think saying Kirilloff is projected to be a much better hitter than Rosario is a huge stretch.
I get Rosario has some warts, but recently people have been acting as if he’s a mediocre, or even bad, player.
Rosario with the Twins since 2017:
2017: .290/.328/.507/.836, 27 HR, 33 2B, 2 3B, 9 SB
2018: .288/.323/.479/.803, 24 HR, 32 2B, 2 3B, 8 SB
2019: .276/.300/.500/.800, 32 HR, 28 2B, 1 3B, 3 SB.
A little lacking in the on-base department, but in terms of hitting for power, which is a pretty big deal these days, he’s remarkably consistent. We’ve seen how he can carry the team for significant stretches, and he seemingly always comes through in “clutch” ABs.
“Much better” at the plate than Rosario is pretty darn high bar. Not saying it isn’t possible, but I think Rosario gets a bad wrap. The perception gets skewed because he’s a bad ball guy, and that’s seen as a negative. But, despite being a bad ball guy, he’s been one of the better offensive outfielders in the AL over the past 3 years. Also, did you know he finished 18th overall in AL MVP voting last year ? He received 5 more vote points than Max Kepler and JD Martinez (finishes 20th and 21st, respectively).
I’m not sure if the context in regards to Rosario was lost last year, because of the historic performances for the lineup as a whole. But, it got lost somewhere along the way. Rosario is a damn good hitter. “Much better” than Rosario is going to be guys the caliber of Betts, Springer, and Trout in terms of the OF. I’m high on Kirilloff, but the odds of him reaching those heights is almost nil (possible, but almost nil).
Last year 87 hitters had a better wRC+ than Rosario, including such luminaries as Domingo Santana, Kole Calhoun, Brian Anderson, and Danny Santana.The 3 year stats you shared above show an erosion in his production, which would be even more pronounced were it not for last year's power explosion (61 players had a SLG of .500 or better in 2019, compared to 26 in 2018 and 41 in 2017); in fact, Eddie's gone from 34th in SLG in 2017 to 41st in 2018, and finally, 61st in 2019.
As you also showed in your 3 year rundown, Eddie's OBP is rapidly approaching hazmat levels--only 7 qualified players had a worse OBP than Eddie last year; even the hollow shell of Albert Pujols had a better OBP.Even in Eddie's good years of 2017 and 2018, he was 88th and 96th respectively in OBP.This is directly related to Eddie's insistence on swinging more often (swing rate of 59.1% in 2019, up from 54.9% in 2017), especially at pitches out of the zone; Eddie swung at 46.3% of pitches out of the zone in 2019 (compared to 37.6% in 2017), which was 4th worst in baseball.
So what we have is a player who is shedding power (relative to the league), getting on base at replecement player levels, demonstrating nearly league-worst discipline, and becoming a defensive liability at the same time he approaches 30 and becomes vastly more expensive, all while playing in the Twins' position of greatest organizational strength.
As this series (somewhat) approximates a trade value ranking, I would not be shocked at all to find that other MLB organizations view Rosario as at best the 5th most attractive outfielder in the Twins system, and quite possibly as low as 7.