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Front Page: With Twins Likely Out on Donaldson, So What's the Plan Now?

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#201 ewen21

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Posted 08 January 2020 - 09:48 PM

I don’t think I there would be a ton of support to get him in here if the front office hadn’t completely bombed the offseason so far. I understand what you are getting at. Most likely we get 2 seasons of good play out of him and 2 seasons where he is maybe a bench bat or starter 2/3 of the season.

What most I think are banking on is him being very good this season yet and and pretty darn good yet next year.

I’ve already said I’m so so on this move either way. But I think if it is between this and nothing at all, I’ll take this rather than let them put the rest of the money in their pockets or use it to sign more guys from the garbage heap.


I respect what you are saying, but I’m highly skeptical about what he can bring anymore and I’ve always liked the guy. Heck I was half hoping he’d put Perkins in his place back in his Oakland days when Perk popped off on him.

Then again, I’ve watched baseball since 1972. We just don’t see many players do very well into their mid-30s. I’m not saying he’s going to suck, but it’s really hard to swallow this “price point” of his on principle. Two good years maybe for 9 figures?

I think I’ll pass
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#202 DocBauer

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Posted 08 January 2020 - 10:09 PM

I don’t think I there would be a ton of support to get him in here if the front office hadn’t completely bombed the offseason so far. I understand what you are getting at. Most likely we get 2 seasons of good play out of him and 2 seasons where he is maybe a bench bat or starter 2/3 of the season.

What most I think are banking on is him being very good this season yet and and pretty darn good yet next year.

I’ve already said I’m so so on this move either way. But I think if it is between this and nothing at all, I’ll take this rather than let them put the rest of the money in their pockets or use it to sign more guys from the garbage heap.


Fully appreciate your perspective but am going to disagree with you.

It was reported fairly early the Twins were considering making a move at 3B and moving Sano over, though nobody was named as a target directly. I was surprised by this as I felt they were sticking with Sano at 3B for the next couple of seasons, but I understood the thought process.

Wheeler and Bumgarner were their initial 2 targets. For various reasons that don't need to be rehashed again, that absolutely didn't turn out. Plan B then became, "what do we do next?"

Frankly, I was a little surprised they didn't look at Moose sooner, but it may have been bad timing.

I despise the whole "with health" comment as it always applies to everyone. But "with health" of a decent nature, ie normal bumps-bruises-tweaks-strains, I see Donaldson performing at normal career levels for 2 years. I would project normal slippage his 3rd year but still productive and closer to ML norm numbers. I would expect the 4th year to be average, give or take some.

Could there be a major drop off all of a sudden? Yes. But I agree with the premise that power and plate discipline do allow a majority of players to age more gracefully than others. And with being in the AL, a transition to 1B or DH can help prolong health, production and longevity. We talk about Sano moving to DH eventually, and that could be the case. But Donaldson could slide there first to replace Cruz.

It's all hypothetical to some degree, but so is every season for every player, to some degree. Missing out on the first 2 important targets hurts. It could very well be the FO miscalculated availability and interest as well as a sudden rise in cost, as I have suggested elsewhere. Or it could be, behind closed doors, they knew both were a tough sell but they were going to at least try.

But I don't believe Donaldson is some Hail Mary attempt to salvage the offseason. 3B was seen as an opportunity, even if it was priority 2B. There is never anything wrong with improving your ballclub, including further strengthening an already existent strength.
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#203 tony&rodney

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Posted 08 January 2020 - 10:10 PM

"I think I’ll pass" - ewen21

 

Why?

The team has the money. The other players won't be jealous. There isn't much committed for next year. Adding JD doesn't prevent the Twins from making trades. It may even help open some trade possibilities. Donaldson would most certainly make the Twins better. 

I never had JD on my radar until there wasn't any other free agents left. But he is available and nobody else is right now.

Why not JD when the money makes no difference at all?

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#204 spycake

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Posted 09 January 2020 - 09:04 AM

 

We just don’t see many players do very well into their mid-30s.

But players who have already done well through age 33, like Donaldson has, tend to do pretty well at ages 34-37 too.

 

I've linked this before, and it's good reading on the subject:

 

https://blogs.fangra...josh-donaldson/

 

To summarize, Donaldson's historical position/performance comps at age 33 and ages 30-33 had the following average performances from age 34-37:

 

34: 3.4 WAR

35: 2.9

36: 2.1 (but 3.0 median)

37: 2.4

 

There's still risk in this or any contract, of course. But "mid-30s age risk" is actually a lot greater for the guys *younger* than Donaldson, whose mid-30's are still a few years away and whose performance might fall off significantly before they even get to age 34. For example, Longoria's bat started fading by age 31, etc.

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#205 Battle ur tail off

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Posted 09 January 2020 - 11:28 AM

 

Fully appreciate your perspective but am going to disagree with you.

It was reported fairly early the Twins were considering making a move at 3B and moving Sano over, though nobody was named as a target directly. I was surprised by this as I felt they were sticking with Sano at 3B for the next couple of seasons, but I understood the thought process.

Wheeler and Bumgarner were their initial 2 targets. For various reasons that don't need to be rehashed again, that absolutely didn't turn out. Plan B then became, "what do we do next?"

Frankly, I was a little surprised they didn't look at Moose sooner, but it may have been bad timing.

I despise the whole "with health" comment as it always applies to everyone. But "with health" of a decent nature, ie normal bumps-bruises-tweaks-strains, I see Donaldson performing at normal career levels for 2 years. I would project normal slippage his 3rd year but still productive and closer to ML norm numbers. I would expect the 4th year to be average, give or take some.

Could there be a major drop off all of a sudden? Yes. But I agree with the premise that power and plate discipline do allow a majority of players to age more gracefully than others. And with being in the AL, a transition to 1B or DH can help prolong health, production and longevity. We talk about Sano moving to DH eventually, and that could be the case. But Donaldson could slide there first to replace Cruz.

It's all hypothetical to some degree, but so is every season for every player, to some degree. Missing out on the first 2 important targets hurts. It could very well be the FO miscalculated availability and interest as well as a sudden rise in cost, as I have suggested elsewhere. Or it could be, behind closed doors, they knew both were a tough sell but they were going to at least try.

But I don't believe Donaldson is some Hail Mary attempt to salvage the offseason. 3B was seen as an opportunity, even if it was priority 2B. There is never anything wrong with improving your ballclub, including further strengthening an already existent strength.

 

Sure, I can agree with where you are coming from. 

 

My comment was mainly pertaining to how fans are perceiving this or why there is such a clamor to bring Donaldson in. I think if they had inked one of those 2-3 pitchers, there wouldn't be the pessimism and the calls by everyone to bring him in almost no matter what would be much more reserved. 

 

I agree with you that players that have plate discipline most notably, can age much better than someone who doesn't. As long as they are able to swing at good pitches and take walks when they are presented, they will give you a chance. 

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#206 howieramone2

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Posted 09 January 2020 - 01:47 PM

We missed out on one pitcher because he likes horses and another because his girlfriend and dog prefer being out east. Sign JD and trade for a starting pitcher and we have completed the best offseason in team history.

 

Early on, only Atlanta  and our favorite team signed 2 players in MLBTR's top 20 free agents. We were the only one to sign 2 starting pitchers. Impact starting pitcher Odorizi and impact starting pitcher Pineda. At no time did our FO say impact pitching would be restricted to those unfamiliar with where the restrooms were located at Target Field.

 

Also, MLB.com in their first power rankings of the year showed us 4th.


#207 Jeff_M

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Posted 14 January 2020 - 12:18 AM

 

Please explain.

 

Donaldson, 2015: 158 games, .939 OPS

2016: 155 games, .953 OPS

2017: 113 games, .944 OPS

2018: 52 games, .801 OPS

2019: 155 games. .900 OPS

 

He got hurt, and it tanked 2018. It happened, sure, but he's been an extremely durable player outside of that. There's zero reason--based on his history--to think you'd get only 2 of 4 productive seasons, "if that." 

 

Also, let us know what "impactful" move you'd rather they make with that $110. Take on David Price's contract, which Boston will give you for nothing in return?

I'm just saying that of the last four seasons, Donaldson onlyplayed a full season 2 of the four; using that, along with advancing age, we can use the same to project going forward.

 

I did not mention Price, though you said I did.
 


#208 Jeff_M

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Posted 14 January 2020 - 12:25 AM

I like the idea of the Twins building form within (this is their DNA), making good strategic moves but not signing big over-the-top contracts overpaying at peak value for guys like Donaldson that are unlikely to perform at the current level through the duration of the contract.

 

Twins didn't have Donaldson last year; they won over 100 games and finished in first place.The reason they lost in postseason is their lack of shutdown pitching, not their lack of Donaldson.


#209 Jeff_M

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Posted 14 January 2020 - 03:37 AM

*build from within, I meant.


#210 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 14 January 2020 - 05:42 AM

I like the idea of the Twins building form within (this is their DNA), making good strategic moves but not signing big over-the-top contracts overpaying at peak value for guys like Donaldson that are unlikely to perform at the current level through the duration of the contract.

Twins didn't have Donaldson last year; they won over 100 games and finished in first place. The reason they lost in postseason is their lack of shutdown pitching, not their lack of Donaldson.


They lost in the postseason for a number of reasons.
One of them being their complete lack of offense- 7 runs in 3 games, including 3 runs total in games 2 and 3.
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#211 Linus

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Posted 14 January 2020 - 08:56 AM

I’ve stated that I would pass. Like it or not there is a high probability that this ends up being dead money and with this ownership that has an effect. I would use the money to extend Berrios and Odo and sign Moreland to play first

If you really want Donaldson call his agent and say you have 48 hours to take our offer. Otherwise they run the risk of getting nobody.

#212 AlwaysinModeration

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Posted 14 January 2020 - 07:19 PM

Just want to note that 4/92 is closer to 100 than 85. Donaldson made 23 each of the past two years, and 4/92 is 23/year.

Also, the Nats could have a higher dollar offer with lots of money defered.

(This is assuming everything in that report is accurate.)


(Other than being bad at math,) nailed it.
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#213 drivlikejehu

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Posted 14 January 2020 - 07:26 PM

I guess it was a "serious offer" after all.

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#214 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 14 January 2020 - 10:35 PM

I guess it was a "serious offer" after all.


It would appear so.
I'll certainly eat my crow, and apologize for my comments regarding the sincerity of the offer.
I was wrong.
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