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Front Page: Is Homer Bailey the Next Martin Perez?

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#81 DocBauer

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Posted 15 February 2020 - 06:52 PM

While I'm not thrilled with Bailey, I am 100% on board with any team taking on a flier for a rebound. You sometimes strike a bit of gold. The biggest difference between Bailey and Perez, IMO, is at least Bailey has had actual ML success in his career before being derailed by injury.

What I find so interesting is Bailey being signed to a ML deal and a guy like Chacin being signed to a milb deal after an awful 2019. But if we examine the past couple of years previous, Chacin would have the better, more recent track record. But Bailey gets the ML deal based on 2019 and especially his finish.

Interesting.

But while I am 100% on board with each of these different fliers, I am also 100% on board with cutting losses after an inexact time frame to move on.

With no insult intended, and I do "get" why the Twins stuck with Gibson and Perez as long as they did, how much better might Dobnak, Thorpe and Smeltzer be prepared for 2020 if they had been given greater opportunity in 2019? Said it before and will say it again, would such a move really impacted the final season results negatively?
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#82 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 15 February 2020 - 11:05 PM

 

While I'm not thrilled with Bailey, I am 100% on board with any team taking on a flier for a rebound. You sometimes strike a bit of gold. The biggest difference between Bailey and Perez, IMO, is at least Bailey has had actual ML success in his career before being derailed by injury.

What I find so interesting is Bailey being signed to a ML deal and a guy like Chacin being signed to a milb deal after an awful 2019. But if we examine the past couple of years previous, Chacin would have the better, more recent track record. But Bailey gets the ML deal based on 2019 and especially his finish.

Interesting.

But while I am 100% on board with each of these different fliers, I am also 100% on board with cutting losses after an inexact time frame to move on.

With no insult intended, and I do "get" why the Twins stuck with Gibson and Perez as long as they did, how much better might Dobnak, Thorpe and Smeltzer be prepared for 2020 if they had been given greater opportunity in 2019? Said it before and will say it again, would such a move really impacted the final season results negatively?

First, Bailey became a much better flyer once Maeda was acquired as a stabilizing force in the middle of the rotation. Initially, I hated the Bailey contract but once Maeda came along, it's a good deal. Like Sanchez in 2018, it's a good insurance policy until something better comes along. If you lose a couple of million in the process, big deal. That's literally 1.5% of the payroll as an insurance policy, then move on. This front office, thankfully, is willing to do that.

 

Second, Gibson and Perez are entirely different entities, and that you lumped them together shows a lack of analysis. Perez had a hot start but overperformed his peripherals massively. Gibson was a good pitcher who was struck down by a sickness but everyone had reason to believe he'd rebound. Unfortunately, Kyle didn't only not recover but also learned he had a disease as a result of that sickness (which was borne out of charity work, mind you). 

 

So, maybe kinda different...

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#83 Riverbrian

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Posted 16 February 2020 - 07:33 AM

 

 

 

Second, Gibson and Perez are entirely different entities, and that you lumped them together shows a lack of analysis. Perez had a hot start but overperformed his peripherals massively. Gibson was a good pitcher who was struck down by a sickness but everyone had reason to believe he'd rebound. Unfortunately, Kyle didn't only not recover but also learned he had a disease as a result of that sickness (which was borne out of charity work, mind you). 

 

So, maybe kinda different...

 

Lack of Analysis? 

 

Of course they are entirely different entities but easily lumped together and placed into the same (We took no steps to prepare for this) file. 

 

https://www.mlb.com/...-injury-updates

 

The Twins were aware that Kyle was not 100% at any point during the season since getting E. Coli during the WINTER and according to the article, the UC diagnosis may have been mid-July. 

 

Neither the Twins or anybody else can claim the surprise card here.  

 

And of course... Berrios, Odorizzi and Pineda were candidates for injury at any time. Because throughout baseball history... all 5 starters in any 5 man rotation have all remained healthy for an entire year... maybe zero times. 

 

What Doc is saying:

 

Perez remained in the rotation with a 6 plus ERA over an extended time frame and Gibson remained in the rotation at less than 100% since winter advancing to measurably weak around Mid-July, waking multiple times a night with a UC diagnosis in hand.  

 

The team just rides it out, hoping it would be all right before the playoffs arrive. A starter is not acquired at the trade deadline nor is anyone from the farm called up. 

 

Doc is joining me and others in prayer. Please don't let Bailey be Perez (Terrible) or Gibson (Not Healthy) and stay in the rotation regardless of these things.:)

 

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#84 akmanak

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Posted 16 February 2020 - 10:23 AM

Bailey is in his 15th year pitching and has had his whole arm pretty much replaced. He is a rental and hopefully can win a couple of games so we can dump him at the end of May because of how bad he is.



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