If we get to the trade deadline and Bailey is a better than league average pitcher as Perez did last year I will be pleased.
Of course Perez was at an age where he was in the prime of his career so there may have been more reason for encouragement and too much patience with his two awful starts to begin August.
Morrison was nowhere near a league average player nor was he 28.
Perez was a poor pitcher after the trade deadline but articles about his fall came well into the second half. Andrew Thames wrote one for TD in August 11 and szymborski and Fangraphs had one August 12. The Twins might have pulled the plug August 12 but this was not the season long struggle of Morrison.
I don’t see that comparison and I really hope we get league average pitching from Bailey that we saw from Perez through July.
I think Perez compares with Morrison when you look at his previous body of work. Morrison was at least coming off a rebound year. Perez was coming off a disaster of a year and his years prior to that disaster were not of the (I've earned a major league job) variety. Perez was a project the minute he signed with us.
Now... to be fair... Perez was making everyone look like a genius until May 30th. His April and May for us was so good that I can certainly understand the temptation to try and get him back to what he was doing in April and May.
However... In my opinion, there is a limit to how long you let a guy struggle and more importantly... when the wheels started coming off Perez... the front office had to know that the playoffs were indeed probable and preparations for those playoffs needed to begin.
I didn't mark the Thames or Symborski articles as any kind of indicator. I was already there.
In my opinion... The first date of consideration for moving Perez out of the rotation was after the all-star break. He should have never made that start on July 17th. From May 30th to July 5th he had made 7 starts totaling 37 innings. His ERA during that stretch was 6.32.
Why Perez now at the all-star break?
1. His performance was clearly not good for 7 straight starts. We got something that needs correcting at the very least.
2. If the Twins were to acquire a starter at the upcoming deadline... And they needed to acquire a starter at the deadline because nobody goes through a season with only 5 starters... but back to IF the Twins. If the Twins were to acquire a starter at the deadline, it was clearly going to be Perez who would be moved out of the rotation to accommodate. Look at the healthy 5. Who makes room for Stroman... It would have been Perez. So just do it now... you don't have to wait for the trade deadline especially when he is going through a 7 start stretch with a 6.32 ERA.
3. And of course... it was the month of July when the front office went on a bullpen DFA purge releasing Mejia, Morin, Magill and Parker in 11 days from July 13th to July 24th. This is significant because we obviously needed some bullpen help after sending 4 of them packing. It was the perfect time to lessen Perez's responsibility from 6 innings to 3 or less. Let him find that April/May Cutter magic out of the pen instead of waiting for 5 days to take another stab it.
OK... so the All-Star Break didn't happen... I stated last July that moving Perez at that time was the move but.. OK... it didn't happen.
The next window for making the move was obvious. At least to me.
After the deadline passed and the Twins did not acquire starting pitching. They had no choice... they had to find the guy from their system and they had to do it now. No team is going to go through a season with the same 5 guys in the rotation. Once they didn't acquire Stroman (For Example). The Team had to develop it's own Stroman (For example). Just because they didn't acquire Stroman doesn't mean the need went away. The need was still there so they needed to get to immediate work finding our version of Stroman.
Every passing day after August 1st that Perez remained in the rotation was a repeated daily mistake. Every day after August 1st that they were not feverishly trying to figure out who they should turn to between Dobnak, Smeltzer, Thorpe or Kohl Stewart was a repeated daily mistake.
Even if I could justify them not making the move August 1st (Which I can't) as they desperately clung to Perez and desperately avoided Smeltzer, Dobnak, Thorpe or whoever.
On August 2nd he gave up 5 runs in 5 innings of work against the Royals and then again on August 7th... he gave up 7 earned runs in 6 innings against the Braves.
The articles you mention came out August 11th and 12. His ERA from May 30th to those articles was 6.61 over 64 innings.
He should have never been allowed to make that start on August 13th after those articles came out.
Of course he threw 6 innings against the Brewers with no earned runs in that game on August 13th.
Smeltzer was first called up May 28th and either sent down or under utilized in favor of Perez during this entire bad Perez stretch and Smeltzer never pitched badly for us.
Dobnak was called up August 9th and either sent down and under utilized in favor of Perez until Dobnak is finally forced (too late) into the rotation by Gibson E Coli and the Pineda suspension (Not Perez Bad Performance) on September 15th and he eventually is called upon to lead us to victory in Game TWO after 28 innings. Perez made 6 starts between August 9th and September 15th. Dobnak could have had 60 innings of work prior to the playoffs.
Lewis Thorpe was called up on July 28th placed into the bullpen and was never a candidate to replace Perez in the rotation.
Martin Perez personally kept us from getting important looks at Smeltzer and Dobnak and whoever. While he was handed the ball every 5th game religiously despite producing numbers that were as bad as any Twins pitcher in history over a 21 start stretch. From May 30th until the end of the season his ERA was 6.29.
Martin Perez was perhaps worse than Logan Morrison and I sit here today hoping that Bailey is nothing like Perez.
And if he is like Perez. I hope the front office learned it's lesson and removes Bailey from the rotation so someone else can try pitch like they belong in the majors. 7 Million better not stand in the way.
BTW... I raise these sharp criticisms and still declare my happiness with the current front office.