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WAR, OPS+, long-term contracts, and Joey Votto

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#1 cardsfan

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Posted 30 December 2019 - 12:05 PM

Looking at Joey Votto who has a lifetime 60.2 WAR, 150 OPS+, a .421 OBP you would think your team is going to win a lot of games and is worth signing him to 10 year contract with $107 million more to be paid out.

But, what did the Reds really get starting at age 28 with his emphasis on getting on base? From 2012 Votto averaged 80 runs and 68 RBIs per year despite getting on base 257 times and leading league in OBP several times. Sure his 162 game average is higher, but, this is starting at age 28. Other than himself he drives in 47 other runners a year since he averaged 21 Hrs a year.
With that many times on base per year you would think he would score more? Makes me wonder whether a replacement in that position would have produced more scoring.

And that brings us to Mike Trout and his huge contract though he he hits more homeruns. Wondering when he starts driving in just 75 runs a year despite leading league in walks?

#2 Cody Pirkl

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Posted 30 December 2019 - 12:44 PM

The Reds didn't have a lot of consistent producers throughout the period that they extended Votto for. I don't like looking at counting stats like runs and RBI because both a product of circumstance. Votto has been the on base machine for years, but when you have such a dropoff in the hitters around him, teams will let him take his walks since he likely won't score. In terms of RBI, look no further than Eddie Rosario in 2019 picking up a career high 109 RBI from the leadoff spot despite having his worst season in 3 years. 

 

Votto was an elite hitter for years and deserved the money he got, but he wasn't the type of hitter that could drive an entire offense with no help the way Trout has made the Angels dangerous even when the rest of the lineup has been bad. Maybe the money they spent on Votto would have been better used being dispersed throughout the lineup, but that's often the argument people make when small market teams sign generational talents to crazy contracts (See Joe Mauer complaints).

 

Obviously Trout's talent will decrease as he gets into his 30s but for a player that could retire today and have an argument for the hall of fame at 28, the Angels have no choice but to give him that contract. The plus side is that they've at least added Rendon and will have Ohtani for years to come. That team may never be a juggernaut, but I don't think we'll ever see Angels fans arguing that they shouldn't have ponied up.

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#3 Mike Sixel

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Posted 30 December 2019 - 01:12 PM

These posts ignore that it is a team game, and if the Angels were as good at building a team as the red Sox or Yankees, for example, the story would be different.
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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#4 Rosterman

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Posted 30 December 2019 - 01:34 PM

That's why longterm contracts only pay out if it combines with performance served, not just future expectations. Unless you feel whatever givens as the players age justifies the payout in the end. Mauer was a bargain for the life of his contract time with the Twins.

 

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#5 KGB

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Posted 30 December 2019 - 01:58 PM

 

That's why longterm contracts only pay out if it combines with performance served, not just future expectations. Unless you feel whatever givens as the players age justifies the payout in the end. Mauer was a bargain for the life of his contract time with the Twins.

If you look at it that way, it's a poor way to run a baseball team.For example, what was a better baseball decision, the Twins extending Mauer or the Cards letting Pujos leave?


#6 Mike Sixel

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Posted 30 December 2019 - 02:03 PM

If you look at it that way, it's a poor way to run a baseball team. For example, what was a better baseball decision, the Twins extending Mauer or the Cards letting Pujos leave?


The Cards offered an insane number to pujols, the Angels just offered more.

We can play games all day where we point out teams that let great players go, rather than play them, and how those teams are bad over the long run. You know, Pittsburgh, Cincy, etc...... Other than Tampa and sort of Oakland, almost no one is great without some expensive players, signed to big deals.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#7 cardsfan

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Posted 30 December 2019 - 02:10 PM

Not extending Pujols for 10 years. The Cards had Holiday signed for $15 million a year and they got 2 years with Beltran. Allen Craig had a couple of good years before being traded for John Lackey. The poor Angels though not confirmed probably signed Pujols when he was 33 and not 31.

Who signs a catcher to a longterm contract without running risks. Mauer wasn't hitting lots of homeruns so the Twins overpaid for a first baseman.

#8 KGB

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Posted 30 December 2019 - 08:23 PM

The Cards offered an insane number to pujols, the Angels just offered more.
We can play games all day where we point out teams that let great players go, rather than play them, and how those teams are bad over the long run. You know, Pittsburgh, Cincy, etc...... Other than Tampa and sort of Oakland, almost no one is great without some expensive players, signed to big deals.


Which wasn't my point at all. I wasn't saying not to sign players to long term contracts, just if you do, you should be paying them for the production during the contract not what they have done in the past.

#9 spycake

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Posted 31 December 2019 - 11:20 AM

This is a random topic for December 2019.

 

Look, obviously Votto has gone off a cliff the past two years, but no, from 2012-2017, the Reds were not particularly limited by having him on their team.

 

Here are the Reds NL ranks:

 

2012: 9th in scoring, 12th in OBP

2013: 3rd in scoring, 2nd in OBP

2014: 13th in scoring, 14th in OBP

2015: 12th in scoring, 11th in OBP

2016: 8th in scoring, 12th in OBP

2017: 8th in scoring, 8th in OBP

 

Does that look like a team that had trouble driving in runs? If anything, it looks like they scored a little more than expected, based on their baserunners.

 

It was arguably even tougher at Votto's spot in the lineup, as outside of Choo's one season in Cincinnati in 2013, the batters directly in front of Votto were atrocious at getting on base.

 

Reds leadoff hitter OBP ranks:

2012 - 30th

2013 - 1st (Choo)

2014 - 28th

2015 - 29th

 

Even when they had Choo in 2013, they managed to rank 30th in OBP at the #2 spot, right between them!

 

By 2014, the Reds also starting moving Votto himself up to #2 in the lineup. Combine that with a pitcher batting 9th, and it's not a recipe for RBI totals.

 

Additionally, 2013-2015 were the 3 lowest run scoring seasons in the modern era (1993-present), and 2011-2015 were the 5 lowest scoring seasons. So Votto is going to be at a disadvantage compared to other players whose primes didn't coincide with a mini-deadball era.


#10 Danchat

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Posted 31 December 2019 - 08:51 PM

Look, obviously Votto has gone off a cliff the past two years, but no, from 2012-2017, the Reds were not particularly limited by having him on their team.

 

Here are the Reds NL ranks:

 

2012: 9th in scoring, 12th in OBP

2013: 3rd in scoring, 2nd in OBP

2014: 13th in scoring, 14th in OBP

2015: 12th in scoring, 11th in OBP

2016: 8th in scoring, 12th in OBP

2017: 8th in scoring, 8th in OBP

Does that look like a team that had trouble driving in runs? If anything, it looks like they scored a little more than expected, based on their baserunners.

 

Um, that's pretty bad, since there's only 15 teams in the NL...

Check out my work at Purple Pain, a Vikings forum: 

Analyzing the Past Decade of Vikings Offseasons


#11 cardsfan

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Posted 01 January 2020 - 01:41 PM

Besides Votto the Reds had that disastrous Homer Bailey contract.

I think one point might be is Votto perhaps with runners in scoring position with 2 outs will walk more than trying to drive in the run early in the count. Does this lead to more scoring? Or with one out and runners in scoring position the same.

That 2013 season when he was on base 316 times and the Reds did win 90 he drove in only 73 with 24 homeruns. Only scored 101. If he could steal 50 bases a year he would of course score more runs. Dusty Baker pointed out the only 73 runs driven in which might have cost him the manager's job.