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How high and long would you go for Ryu?

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#1 John Bonnes

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Posted 12 December 2019 - 01:08 PM

So you want Ryu? Is there a financial point where you say it's just silly and won't be unhappy if the Twins don't sign him? This guy's agent is Scott Boras, after all. He has specialized this offseason in silly contracts. 

 

Ryu is said to be seeking the security of a three or four-year pact. While he comes with a dodgy health history, the 32-year-old was healthy in 2019. And Ryu has always been effective when healthy — never more than of late. He owns a ridiculous 2.21 ERA over 265 innings in his past 44 starts, with 8.6 K/9 to go with a meager 1.3 BB/9.

 

(from https://www.mlbtrade...un-jin-ryu.html )

 

I would go as high as four years and $100M. Would you? Or even five years at $110M or $120M?

 

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#2 beckmt

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Posted 12 December 2019 - 01:11 PM

 

So you want Ryu? Is there a financial point where you say it's just silly and won't be unhappy if the Twins don't sign him? This guy's agent is Scott Boras, after all. He has specialized this offseason in silly contracts. 

 

(from https://www.mlbtrade...un-jin-ryu.html )

 

I would go as high as four years and $100M. Would you? Or even five years at $110M or $120M?

4/100 is about as high as I would go.He is a little to old for 5 for me.Tough call.

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#3 Mike Sixel

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Posted 12 December 2019 - 01:21 PM

I don't agree at all that the contracts are silly. Go look at the numbers on fangraphs, and the probable outcomes achieved. 

 

I'd go 4/100, but man I'd be nervous about his health. I just don't see a lot of realistic trade options out there as alternatives. I wouldn't like the length, but this team hasn't got many pitchers under control past this year that have MLB experience......

 

That number is low enough that they can eat it near the end as he tails off, and as revenues rise over time.....and Cruz and Rosario come off the books. 

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#4 drivlikejehu

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Posted 12 December 2019 - 01:23 PM

Presumably, the main issue for Boras is total dollars, since Ryu would be unlikely to gain another significant contract 3-5 years from now. So I think Boras might prefer, say 5/110 to 4/100, just as an example (though there is a time value of money factor - maybe a signing bonus would make sense).

 

I guess my concern would be, if the Twins give him 5/125, how will that impact their ability to extend their current players? Berrios and Buxton in particular. Looking at the payroll, it really doesn't seem like it would be an issue. And next year's crop of FA pitchers is very limited.

 

My biggest concern with Ryu, aside from injury, is the infield that would be playing behind him. They wouldn't be maximizing his value with their current configuration. In any case, I'd definitely go to 100 and maybe a bit beyond, but I'd be pretty nervous about it.

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#5 Dman

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Posted 12 December 2019 - 01:24 PM

3/85 is about as high as I would go.Maybe 3/90 if needed. I would do my best to keep the years down even if I have to go with a higher AAV.Sell him hard on the Manager of the year and good clubhouse.The beautiful Minnesota stadium and all the things our city and state has to offer.

 

If you just had to go four years then 4/110 is the limit and I guess we likely eat one or two years on the end of that contract.We just have to have someone good this year.We really need him.

 

I would not go five years though.With that injury history it could be Phil Hughes II.


#6 USAFChief

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Posted 12 December 2019 - 01:27 PM

3/80 is about as high as I would go. Maybe 3/85 if needed. I would do my best to keep the years down even if I have to go with a higher AAV. Sell him hard on the Manager of the year and good clubhouse. The beautiful Minnesota stadium and all the things our city and state has to offer.

If you just had to go four years then 4/105 is the limit and I guess we likely eat one or two years on the end of that contract. We just have to have someone good this year. We really need him.

3/$80 is what I came up with as well. Dont care about higher AAV, but dont want to go past 3 years. He's not getting $26.66M/yr on a 4 or 5 yr deal, so maybe he takes it.
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#7 Dman

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Posted 12 December 2019 - 01:37 PM

 

3/$80 is what I came up with as well. Dont care about higher AAV, but dont want to go past 3 years. He's not getting $26.66M/yr on a 4 or 5 yr deal, so maybe he takes it.

 

Yeah I even upped my estimate on the 3 year.We can handle three years even if it all goes south.We have space this year for sure and likely next year as well.So just year three for a possible pinch and other contracts come off as well so they can still maneuver.They could probably handle a 4th year with likely little to no production from him but it would kind of suck as that would be the time we would need to consider paying some of our younger guys unless they get extended.3 years is the sweet spot for me.Maybe they do an option year to make the dollar amount sound better?

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#8 amjgt

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Posted 12 December 2019 - 01:43 PM

3/$80 is what I came up with as well. Dont care about higher AAV, but dont want to go past 3 years. He's not getting $26.66M/yr on a 4 or 5 yr deal, so maybe he takes it.

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#9 Mike Sixel

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Posted 12 December 2019 - 01:44 PM

Good stuff, I like the 3 year 85 better than the 4 year 100.....

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#10 amjgt

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Posted 12 December 2019 - 01:46 PM

If you can get 400 total inning over 3 years, which is close to what he’s totaled the last 3, and he’s anything resembling the production during the last 3 years, then 27M AAV is completely fine

#11 Dantes929

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Posted 12 December 2019 - 01:53 PM

He had an elbow and a shoulder surgery. Obviously went well since he was runner up in Cy Young this year.Last injury was a groin injury which I assume won't recur. I get concerned with a guy like Buxton who has a thin frame, plays at a ridiculous speed and has had at least one concussion but even with him, if he is healthy now I expect him to be healthy.Much like Bumgarner, Wheeler or Cole there are any number of guys that you could say, "He's been durablle" but it only takes sliding the wrong way, planting the wrong way or for a tendon to stretch the wrong way for that to all change in a minute.Monreau, Mauer, Nathan and J Santana were all healthy until they were't.All sorts of guys have been injured and then have recovered and have had no problem until retirement. In other words, I am not any more concerned about Ryu's health than any one else's since he is healthy now and coming off a great year. I am a little concerned about his age.IMO He is a much better option than Price, who will be paid 32 mil for the next three years. The shorter the contract the higher the price so if you all are talking about 4 years of 100 mil I would offer 65 mil on a two year contract with a club 30 mil option for the third year.Something along those lines anyway.

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#12 Twins33

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Posted 12 December 2019 - 02:02 PM

4/100 max, but I’m hoping for 3/60 or 4/80 instead.

#13 howeda7

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Posted 12 December 2019 - 02:28 PM

 

3/85 is about as high as I would go.Maybe 3/90 if needed. I would do my best to keep the years down even if I have to go with a higher AAV.Sell him hard on the Manager of the year and good clubhouse.The beautiful Minnesota stadium and all the things our city and state has to offer.

 

If you just had to go four years then 4/110 is the limit and I guess we likely eat one or two years on the end of that contract.We just have to have someone good this year.We really need him.

 

I would not go five years though.With that injury history it could be Phil Hughes II.

Going 3/$90 over 4/$100 in a league without a salary cap doesn't make sense, but I see this logic a lot more lately. Even if I were a hand-off owner I would ream out a GM who used this logic.


#14 nicksaviking

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Posted 12 December 2019 - 02:40 PM

He's definitely the guy I like the best of the next tier. I'd really like the team to explore trades first though, because my willingness to pay Ryu would really hinge on the quality of pitcher the Twins are (or aren't) able to trade for.

I mean, sure, I do 4/100M if desperate. Let's go see if desperation is actually required though.

I’d hate to find out later that the price of getting a #1 starter was either giving Ryu an extra year or giving up Royce Lewis only it’s now too late to give Ryu that extra year.
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#15 Dman

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Posted 12 December 2019 - 02:55 PM

 

Going 3/$90 over 4/$100 in a league without a salary cap doesn't make sense, but I see this logic a lot more lately. Even if I were a hand-off owner I would ream out a GM who used this logic.

 

 

I see your point if the higher dollar amount is all that matters sure 4/100 isn't that much different from 3/90. Players don't worry if they can produce in year 4 or not because the money is guaranteed. That is why players\agents always shoot for more years.Odds are there is no contract after this one so get what you can while you can.The AAV is less for the team so they have a few more million to spend per year as well.That is all fine until you get to year 4 when you are still on the hook for 20 some Million instead of zero dollars.

 

For the team having that dead weight in salary year four is a hindrance to signing other FA or extending your own good players (i.e. see the Red Sox dilemma this year)While you say there is not salary cap there is a budget cap that every team has.Staying as agile as possible financially should allow you to have money to spend in FA on a yearly basis.Short term deals help achieve that.The further out in years you go with more players you take on more financial risk.

 

So three years versus four is simply risk management to me.You are hoping to get more efficient production per year from the player and remain financially agile in case that player regresses.It makes sense to me and if I was owner and my front office got me the player for 3/90 instead of 4/100 I would be thanking them for saving me 10M especially if I get to put it back in my pocket.

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#16 dex8425

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Posted 12 December 2019 - 03:13 PM

I absolutely don't want more than three years. I don't even want three, but he's going to get three from some team. 3/80 is the highest I would go, if the FO decides they can't get Madbum for whatever reason or don't want to go 5 years on Madbum. 

 

I'm very worried about how many innings Ryu would actually pitch in those three years. 

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#17 DocBauer

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Posted 12 December 2019 - 03:56 PM

I am going to echo keeping it at 3yrs and paying extra for $80M.

If things continue to get silly and there's a 4th year, try to front load the deal.
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#18 tony&rodney

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Posted 12 December 2019 - 04:11 PM

Once Cole signed, the madness should ease. Ryu is a great pitcher, no doubt, but he has high risk written all over him. A 3/$67M is my top offer. I'm holding firm on Bumgarner at 4/$90M. MB doesn't seem interested in the Twins and is not in the same class as Cole. The numbers for Cole blew us out of any rational chance of signing him apparently and it didn't seem as if the Twins were ever in on Cole.

Turn to Teheran and Wood if Ryu and Bumgarner are holding out for bigger numbers. 

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#19 sweetmusicviola16

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Posted 12 December 2019 - 04:26 PM

 

Once Cole signed, the madness should ease. Ryu is a great pitcher, no doubt, but he has high risk written all over him. A 3/$67M is my top offer. I'm holding firm on Bumgarner at 4/$90M. MB doesn't seem interested in the Twins and is not in the same class as Cole. The numbers for Cole blew us out of any rational chance of signing him apparently and it didn't seem as if the Twins were ever in on Cole.

Turn to Teheran and Wood if Ryu and Bumgarner are holding out for bigger numbers. 

I'm with you, I'd go as high as 3/70, I've been saying 3/66 but I'll up it slightly. No more years for me. With his injury history no way over 3.

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#20 howeda7

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Posted 12 December 2019 - 04:38 PM

 

I see your point if the higher dollar amount is all that matters sure 4/100 isn't that much different from 3/90. Players don't worry if they can produce in year 4 or not because the money is guaranteed. That is why players\agents always shoot for more years.Odds are there is no contract after this one so get what you can while you can.The AAV is less for the team so they have a few more million to spend per year as well.That is all fine until you get to year 4 when you are still on the hook for 20 some Million instead of zero dollars.

 

For the team having that dead weight in salary year four is a hindrance to signing other FA or extending your own good players (i.e. see the Red Sox dilemma this year)While you say there is not salary cap there is a budget cap that every team has.Staying as agile as possible financially should allow you to have money to spend in FA on a yearly basis.Short term deals help achieve that.The further out in years you go with more players you take on more financial risk.

 

So three years versus four is simply risk management to me.You are hoping to get more efficient production per year from the player and remain financially agile in case that player regresses.It makes sense to me and if I was owner and my front office got me the player for 3/90 instead of 4/100 I would be thanking them for saving me 10M especially if I get to put it back in my pocket.

Even if that's a real issue, how does the "not caring" not just shift to year 3 under your contract? If there was a salary cap, caring about the AAV makes sense. But there isn't. All that matters is the total $ amount you are risking.

 

There are people who will to go so far as to say "I'll pay 3/$90, but not 4/$90!" What? It's a totally free year at that point and you still say, "no thanks!" It makes zero sense. And Time Value of Money is a real thing when you're talking $90 million contracts. And since there's no cap, teams have flexibility to spend extra if they have a year with larger dead contracts. If I'm the Pohlad's, I'd certainly rather spend an extra $20 million on the 2023 payroll than give a pitcher a higher salary for reason in 2020 and 2021.

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