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#21 Thrylos

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Posted 11 December 2019 - 04:55 PM

Fact:Berrios, Dobnak, Odorizzi all lost games last postseason against the Yankees who now added Cole.

 

The Twins need much better if they want to be relevant and not go belly up again in the postseason

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#22 mikelink45

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Posted 11 December 2019 - 04:55 PM

I know I already commented, but suddenly I realized what the title of this post is and it came to me - how do you know what I expect?

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#23 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 11 December 2019 - 05:04 PM

 

Fact:Berrios, Dobnak, Odorizzi all lost games last postseason against the Yankees who now added Cole.

 

The Twins need much better if they want to be relevant and not go belly up again in the postseason

 

I don't think anyone disagrees with you on us needing to get better. 

 

I do think, however, that Dobnak could improve on his own. Admittedly, I doubt Berrios and Odorizzi can get much better (perhaps Jose doesn't have a second half swoon this year?), but I don't really think it's fair to lump Dobnak into this just yet. 

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#24 h2oface

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Posted 11 December 2019 - 05:04 PM

Diamond was "better than you think".

Hildenberger was "better than you think". 

Harper?

Dobnak had a welcome 28.1 innings in the regular season. A surprise and a story. His 2 innings in game 3 of the ALDS is exactly what I think

If someone gets hurt and he can fill in and still fool people who haven't seen him before or much, great. He could be very valuable for a spell.

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#25 JLease

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Posted 11 December 2019 - 07:00 PM

It's going to be interesting to see how a sinker-slider pitcher like Dobnak does in MLB going forward. It is true that sinkerball pitchers are going out of vogue right now, and part of the reason is they don't tend to generate a lot of Ks, and guys with a high K-rate are lower risk because of the lower numbers of baserunners they're generating.

 

The question is, with fewer of those types of pitcher in MLB, will the remaining ones be more effective as they run out a pitch mix and style they isn't seen as often? Or will it not matter and maybe the best hitters just have an approach at the plate that can handle that arsenal too well?

 

It's interesting, but Kyle Gibson was one of those guys who threw a heavy sinker and generated groundballs in 2014 & 2015 and was fairly effective overall on the season...but was horribly inconsistent from start to start. Look at this run of Game , Scores in 2014 from June 18 - July 29: 81, 19, 61, 21, 60, 31, 78. Results like that are why Gibson changed his pitch mix and approach (and had his best year as a pro in 2018). 

 

Now, if Dobnak becomes 2014-2015 Kyle Gibson that's still a huge win for a 5th starter, but if he's 2016-2017 Gibson then he's just another guy out there. Dobnak has talent, but I have concerns about his ability to become a consistent guy.


#26 h2oface

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Posted 11 December 2019 - 07:13 PM

May as well have 3 3rd starters, and pitch them 3, 4 and 5. Better than a 5th starter being the 5th starter.


#27 TwinsFan268

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Posted 11 December 2019 - 07:16 PM

I agree completely with having Dobnak as a starter. He's a great pitcher, and could definitely fill in for Pineda for is remaining 39 days of suspension. He could also fill in for any pitchers if they got placed on the IL or for some reason couldn't play.

 

That being said, if the Twins don't find another starter, they should use Dobnak in the rotation spot.

i like rally squirrels and bombas, nothing more


#28 DocBauer

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Posted 11 December 2019 - 07:45 PM

Fact: Berrios, Dobnak, Odorizzi all lost games last postseason against the Yankees who now added Cole.

The Twins need much better if they want to be relevant and not go belly up again in the postseason


Not disagreeing with your premise of getting better. This is a good team, but with room to improve.

But I do disagree with the root of your analysis. Berrios absolutely has room to grow and develop further. We have all seen the talent and potential. Odorizzi didn't pitch poorly and is pretty darn good. Dobnak was there because Pineda, pitching borderline outstanding, was not available. Gibson was a mess and wasn't really a factor.

The Yankees had much more experience in such a setting. I don't think that should be dismissed. And while the Yankees endured quite a few injuries in 2019, they were relatively sound to close out the second half. Meanwhile, injuries and rust from injuries, plus the Pineda suspension, had an impact on the Twins, IMO.

The Yankees were and are a good ballclub. And the Twins need to continue to grow, develop and improve themselves. No debate there. I believe they can and will. But various circumstances at the end of last year doesn't dim my opinion or perspective because a potential #5 SP with potential was thrust in to an unfair position.
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#29 Lasorda_This_Out

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Posted 11 December 2019 - 08:13 PM

Randy has an unbelievable future!

5th starter in 2020 rotation for Twins?

 

Now for that Fu-Manchu mustache thingy...?

 

1. Shave it off...1970's NYC porno look ( and we hate the Yankees!!)...and it's really creepy??

2. Wasting 80% of awesome beard follicles...

3. Grow a full gnarly beard....scary! NHL dudes would kill for?

4. Beard plus Oakley glasses!! Woot!

5. Slider and that 4-seamer!!!

 

 


#30 Riverbrian

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Posted 11 December 2019 - 08:31 PM

 

My question is quite simple. What has changed between now and when the Twins were really trying to minimize his use in August and Early September? 28 Innings? 

 

I am all for getting Dobnak a chance to show us that he is better than we think. I believe he might be better than we think. It's possible, I won't doubt the guy but we don't know and the front office doesn't know. 

 

However... it would be bad roster management and a pure dice roll to plan your 2020 opening day roster with Dobnak taking one of the spots after trying really really hard not to utilize him 28 innings ago. 

 

It's 2020... It's a pivotal year... Don't mess around. Sign or trade for some arms with a track record.This is what contending teams do in the off-season. They don't mess around. 

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#31 jrod23

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Posted 11 December 2019 - 10:01 PM

Dobnak was thrusted through the minors last year to make his debut in The Show.Deservedly so.What bothers me is that because of his start vs. the Yanks in the playoffs, he gets a bad rap?Seriously?He was PHENOMENAL as a rookie.Then to be on the Twins' largest stage since 2010?Cut the kid some slack.He's a gamer.He's made it to the bigs in a very unconventional, yet deserving way.If you think he's not worth a damn because of that one playoff start against the Bronx Bombers, you're ignorant as hell.

 

Great article.Wow.


#32 DocBauer

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Posted 11 December 2019 - 10:38 PM

My question is quite simple. What has changed between now and when the Twins were really trying to minimize his use in August and Early September? 28 Innings? 
 
I am all for getting Dobnak a chance to show us that he is better than we think. I believe he might be better than we think. It's possible, I won't doubt the guy but we don't know and the front office doesn't know. 
 
However... it would be bad roster management and a pure dice roll to plan your 2020 opening day roster with Dobnak taking one of the spots after trying really really hard not to utilize him 28 innings ago. 
 
It's 2020... It's a pivotal year... Don't mess around. Sign or trade for some arms with a track record.This is what contending teams do in the off-season. They don't mess around.


Agreed.

I like Dobnak's potential quite a bit. I think he has decent stuff, the right frame, decent velocity, etc. I think his rise last season should not be discounted. He appears determined, unflappable and has the sort of "it" intelligence factor. All good things! How good could he be? Let's check back in a season or two shall we.

I like this kid a lot. But I also like Thorpe an awful lot too. I think some people discount him because he isn't 21-22yo old. But he missed two full seasons and has been pushed pretty aggressively since his return. And he's done very well. While his ML numbers for 2019 don't look all that great, there were innings and moments when you could see the potential. I think he is a legitimate ML SP with a floor of quality RP who could be Rogers-like, potentially.

And in no way should we dismiss Smeltzer at this point. We saw flashes and potential of a bulldog, smart pitcher last season.

But let's be real. If he can be nurtured a bit and keep his IP under control, Graterol is a HIGH END talent who could potentially explode over the next year or two.

ALL of these guys have a chance to make real contributions in 2020 as the 5th SP, temp 4th SP while waiting for Pineda, and out of the pen. (There are a few others who could make their presence known before 2020 is over as well). And with experience, talent, coaching and the right opportunity, we will be able to approach 2021 with a couple of these guys penciled in to key roles.

But this is a HIGH quality team with real potential. I don't knkw who the FO is going to bring on board to add to the top of the rotation, or whether it will be via FA or trade. I fully believe in the smarts of our FO to bring in a quality arm to add to the mix...even if it isn't exactly who may have been hoped for. But regardless, when you look at some of the arms available, there are a number of guys out there who could be brought in on a 1yr or 1+1 deal that still offer up experience and potential where you deepen your options and potential.

As I stated elsewhere, there is and will be opportunity for these young guys. But get that one arm you really think can help, and then sign another whether you want to call it a flier or bounce back.
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#33 Dantes929

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Posted 12 December 2019 - 01:07 AM

 

Fact:Berrios, Dobnak, Odorizzi all lost games last postseason against the Yankees who now added Cole.

 

The Twins need much better if they want to be relevant and not go belly up again in the postseason

While the starters didn't shine, the defense was worse, the bullpen was worse and the offense was worse.Berrios gave up one earned run. Odorizzi but for bad defense would have given up one run and Dobnak wasn't on the field when the Yankees scored 3 of the 4 runs charged against them. Starters didn't shine but they were the least of the problem this past post season and is being blamed for being all of it. I still think that series would have been way different if Littell had done his job.Maybe not. Its baseball so its full of what ifs.

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#34 Sam Morley

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Posted 12 December 2019 - 10:56 AM

Dobs is a reliever. You can tell by his goose gossage mustache and antoine carr oakleys.

 

Let the back-of-head hair flow long out the bottom of your cap, figure out your favorite Metallica/Megadeath song, heat up that straight-ball a few ticks, and go to your home.

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#35 Thrylos

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Posted 12 December 2019 - 06:28 PM

 

.

But I do disagree with the root of your analysis. Berrios absolutely has room to grow and develop further. We have all seen the talent and potential.
 

 

Jose Berrios's 3 full MLB seasons:

 

 

2017: 3.89 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 1.229 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 2.9 K/BB
2018: 3.84 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 1.144 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 3.3 K/BB
2019: 3.68 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 1.233 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 3.8 K/BB

 

Maybe improvement but maybe regression.If improvement, with that rate, it will take him 10 years to realize his potential.

 

Potential is different that results in the ballpark.Maybe it is his training regiment and he needs to focus on recuperating and or pitching, instead of dragging tractor tires around. 

 

Could be between his ears. I don't know what it is, but he is not progressing at the rate a top pitcher should be progressing...

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#36 Mike Sixel

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Posted 12 December 2019 - 06:40 PM

 

Jose Berrios's 3 full MLB seasons:

 

 

2017: 3.89 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 1.229 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 2.9 K/BB
2018: 3.84 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 1.144 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 3.3 K/BB
2019: 3.68 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 1.233 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 3.8 K/BB

 

Maybe improvement but maybe regression.If improvement, with that rate, it will take him 10 years to realize his potential.

 

Potential is different that results in the ballpark.Maybe it is his training regiment and he needs to focus on recuperating and or pitching, instead of dragging tractor tires around. 

 

Could be between his ears. I don't know what it is, but he is not progressing at the rate a top pitcher should be progressing...

 

Progress isn't linear. Berrios was a legit number 2 last year, I have no idea what you want/expect from him. With a tiny bit of improvement, he'd be one of the 10 best starters in baseball.

 

That said, those stats look pretty consistent, so we just might have to settle for 4.x fWAR a year from him, and him being one of the 20 or so best pitchers in the game......../s

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#37 DocBauer

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Posted 12 December 2019 - 08:31 PM

Jose Berrios's 3 full MLB seasons:


2017: 3.89 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 1.229 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 2.9 K/BB
2018: 3.84 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 1.144 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 3.3 K/BB
2019: 3.68 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 1.233 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 3.8 K/BB

Maybe improvement but maybe regression. If improvement, with that rate, it will take him 10 years to realize his potential.

Potential is different that results in the ballpark. Maybe it is his training regiment and he needs to focus on recuperating and or pitching, instead of dragging tractor tires around.

Could be between his ears. I don't know what it is, but he is not progressing at the rate a top pitcher should be progressing...


And you bring up an interesting point I have mentioned before. I don't believe his offseason regiment is an issue. And I have absolutely no clue what his in-season routine is. But for such a highly conditioned young athlete, he seems to have a late season fade each season after looking so dominant previously. I'm wondering if he is working too hard during the season and should back off to maintain endurance and energy.
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#38 Jham

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Posted 12 December 2019 - 09:53 PM

Dobnak's success with ridiculous control of an unorthodox pitch mix is reminiscent of Tyler Duffey's 2017. Duffey was hitting corners with multiple curve balls at different speeds and from different angles. But doing that requires so much touch and finesse, almost no pitcher can have that much feel for multiple off speed pitches game in and game out. His curves were beauties, but only dominant when combined with control.

Dobnak dominated with pinpoint control of his sinker and slider. In my opinion, I think it's really unlikely he can keep that up. I think his outing in Yankee stadium may well be his new normal.

#39 Dantes929

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Posted 12 December 2019 - 10:54 PM

 

Dobnak's success with ridiculous control of an unorthodox pitch mix is reminiscent of Tyler Duffey's 2017. Duffey was hitting corners with multiple curve balls at different speeds and from different angles. But doing that requires so much touch and finesse, almost no pitcher can have that much feel for multiple off speed pitches game in and game out. His curves were beauties, but only dominant when combined with control.

Dobnak dominated with pinpoint control of his sinker and slider. In my opinion, I think it's really unlikely he can keep that up. I think his outing in Yankee stadium may well be his new normal.

Finally someone that saw what I saw.Fans were saying that off season he needed to develop another pitchor the league would catch up to him. No!!!he was already changing speeds and angles so much it was like he had 20 different pitches. I suspect that working on that 3rd pitch so much the next year caused him to lose a little bite and command of his curve ball and just as importantly he stopped hitting corners with his fast ball.Of course then fans said "See, told you he couldn't last as a starter with just two pitches!" ignoring the fact that those two pitches just weren't as good as the previous year.Now Dobnak might be the same way but he wasn't just great in his 28 major league innings. He was great in the 135 innings he pitched in the minors.He might just be a flash in the pan but I'm not going to just assume so. Anyone can have a clunker and in Yankees stadium to boot. At any rate, I think he's earned the shot.

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#40 Herschel78

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Posted 13 December 2019 - 09:02 AM

I am encouraged by Trueblood’s in depth analysis of Dobnak. Obviously he and the Twins see something there.

To me it’s still way to early to tell.



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